• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 05:50
CET 10:50
KST 18:50
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
ByuL: The Forgotten Master of ZvT30Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book19Clem wins HomeStory Cup 289HomeStory Cup 28 - Info & Preview13Rongyi Cup S3 - Preview & Info8
Community News
2026 KongFu Cup Announcement2BGE Stara Zagora 2026 cancelled10Blizzard Classic Cup - Tastosis announced as captains13Weekly Cups (March 2-8): ByuN overcomes PvT block4GSL CK - New online series18
StarCraft 2
General
Blizzard Classic Cup - Tastosis announced as captains BGE Stara Zagora 2026 cancelled BGE Stara Zagora 2026 announced ByuL: The Forgotten Master of ZvT Terran AddOns placement
Tourneys
2026 KongFu Cup Announcement [GSL CK] Team Maru vs. Team herO StarCraft Evolution League (SC Evo Biweekly) WardiTV Team League Season 10 Master Swan Open (Global Bronze-Master 2)
Strategy
Custom Maps
Publishing has been re-enabled! [Feb 24th 2026] Map Editor closed ?
External Content
The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 516 Specter of Death Mutation # 515 Together Forever Mutation # 514 Ulnar New Year
Brood War
General
BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Gypsy to Korea ASL21 General Discussion BW General Discussion Are you ready for ASL 21? Hype VIDEO
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [BSL22] Open Qualifiers & Ladder Tours IPSL Spring 2026 is here! ASL Season 21 Qualifiers March 7-8
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Soma's 9 hatch build from ASL Game 2 Fighting Spirit mining rates Zealot bombing is no longer popular?
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Path of Exile Nintendo Switch Thread PC Games Sales Thread No Man's Sky (PS4 and PC)
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion The Story of Wings Gaming
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Five o'clock TL Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas Vanilla Mini Mafia TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Mexico's Drug War Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Russo-Ukrainian War Thread NASA and the Private Sector
Fan Clubs
The IdrA Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books [Manga] One Piece
Sports
Formula 1 Discussion 2024 - 2026 Football Thread General nutrition recommendations Cricket [SPORT] TL MMA Pick'em Pool 2013
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Laptop capable of using Photoshop Lightroom?
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Iranian anarchists: organize…
XenOsky
FS++
Kraekkling
Shocked by a laser…
Spydermine0240
Gaming-Related Deaths
TrAiDoS
Unintentional protectionism…
Uldridge
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2662 users

Extended Series Math

Blogs > VGhost
Post a Reply
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3616 Posts
August 01 2011 15:41 GMT
#1
MLG Extended Series... Much Bitching is Le Ensued.

MLG's "extended series" format, where a Bo3 becomes a Bo7 with previous results counted, guarantees the advancing player has a winning record head-to-head.
The other system that people keep proposing is the "win two Bo3" system, where the previous loser has to win 2, the previous winner only 1, Bo3. By counting in terms of series, it avoids the possibility of the "losing head to head advances" problem. In terms of games, tie records are possible, as in a 2-1, 0-2, 2-1 advance (or 0-2, 2-1, 2-1), but the series is made the main thing so that doesn't really matter.

Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to run some numbers and see how these two systems compare.

+ Show Spoiler [W/L Table] +
Extended from 0-2
W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L
L W W W W
L
L
L
L

Extended from 1-2

W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L

2 Bo3 System

W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L W
L W W
L
L
L W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L
L


Assume the two players are equally good. Then in the different situations, the loser of the first series has:

Extended Series (0-2): 18.75% chance to win
2 Bo3 System: 25.00% chance to win
Extended Series (1-2): 31.25% chance to win

In a regular DE tournament, the loser of the first match would still have a 50% chance to win, so any of these situations gives the first winner an advantage. That could be good or bad: I tend to think it's a good thing overall, especially since it's a known part of the format. I prefer the MLG extended to the 2 Bo3 because it rewards a "better" loss in the first place. Series wins are good, but the point of the series is to find out who's the better player.

Other Thoughts

MLG could juggle the brackets so that rematches simply don't happen in the open bracket. It's not that hard. There are 4 OBs and 8 LBs: so split the OBs (as it were) by finalists to create 8 brackets, then rotate the losers. For example, for the first LB round OB 1.1 losers -> LB 1, then the next round OB 1.1 losers -> LB2, etc. There are then 8 brackets and only 5 seeding-downs so the rotation never goes all the way around and there are no Open rematches and everyone's happy.

The championship bracket is a different story, naturally. Even with rotation there are 6 seeds from only 4 pools so you're almost guaranteed to get a rematch at some point. It's sort of surprising there aren't more: Anaheim had only 2; Columbus had 6; Dallas had 4. But if pool were made really and truly only for seeding, then extended series rules shouldn't apply to the championship bracket.

*
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
August 01 2011 15:53 GMT
#2
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.
Really, play for fun!
Uncultured
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1340 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:34:26
August 01 2011 16:33 GMT
#3
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.
Don't you rage when you lose too? -FruitDealer
lolsixtynine
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States600 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:56:56
August 01 2011 16:55 GMT
#4
On August 02 2011 00:53 ZpuX wrote:
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.


I'm guessing it's talking about the finals, where this actually does come up.

Edit: Looks like OP was just confused - the "2 bo3" system is exclusively being talked about for the finals, which is the only real debate... everyone outside of MLG agrees that extended series before the finals is terribad.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 18:19:25
August 01 2011 18:17 GMT
#5
On August 02 2011 01:33 Uncultured wrote:
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.

*edit* re read the OP, he is talking about winning "a bo3 consisting of bo3's". When you face each other in the LB again, the winner from WB only has to win one bo3 while the other player has to win 2 bo3's.

No, a fresh start would be as if you never played each other before. Why should someone have a harder road to the finals depending on who he got to face in the winner bracket?

Two players get knocked down to LB in the first round.

In the third round in LB, player A has to play an extended series, Which means player A has to win either 3 or 4 games to advance while player B only has to win 2 games. Does this seem fair?

Another point, why isn't this applied to every single round in the LB then? I mean it should make no difference who you lose to in WB. Playing from the LB will give you a disadvantage once you reach the final which is what should count.

Really, play for fun!
Blueblister
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden321 Posts
August 02 2011 22:03 GMT
#6
Like ZpuX said there isn't really much of a mathematical controversy between Extended Series (ES) and "first to 2 Bo3" systems.

Both are fine when the LB and WB winners meet in the finals and both are outrageous when two players meet in the LB. Instead the "2 Bo3" vs ES discussion is of a subjective and much more debatable nature. + Show Spoiler +
- People being against ES argues that it lessens suspense as the chance to come close to or to a final deciding game is much lower. (This is why many double-elimination tournaments eliminates the rule)
- People for ES assert the added fairness, which your above example is proof of.


Which system is is more fair in the finals isn't too much to debate about either as it's pretty easy to deduct which one is correct for which situation:
+ Show Spoiler +
It's always fair to use "first to 2 Bo3" with WB winner being up a Bo3 at the start. The extended series is also provably even more fair if the players has met before.


Note that the "losing head to head advances"-dilemma is illusionary for every instance except in the LB winner vs WB winner finals as it is based on false assumptions.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 10m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
SortOf 213
Tasteless 48
StarCraft: Brood War
Sea 77776
Calm 19556
BeSt 515
actioN 485
Larva 371
EffOrt 186
Stork 157
ToSsGirL 83
Dewaltoss 73
Backho 51
[ Show more ]
Mind 33
IntoTheRainbow 29
sSak 29
GoRush 23
JulyZerg 21
SilentControl 9
Bale 9
Dota 2
NeuroSwarm116
resolut1ontv 86
ODPixel54
canceldota35
XcaliburYe12
febbydoto6
League of Legends
JimRising 464
Counter-Strike
zeus64
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King67
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor90
Other Games
Fuzer 179
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream16080
Other Games
gamesdonequick1165
ComeBackTV 222
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 13 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• LUISG 26
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Lourlo1725
• Stunt586
Upcoming Events
CranKy Ducklings
10m
RSL Revival
10m
MaxPax vs Rogue
Clem vs Bunny
WardiTV Team League
2h 10m
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
7h 10m
BSL
10h 10m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d
RSL Revival
1d
ByuN vs SHIN
Maru vs Krystianer
WardiTV Team League
1d 2h
Patches Events
1d 7h
BSL
1d 10h
[ Show More ]
Replay Cast
1d 14h
Replay Cast
1d 23h
Wardi Open
2 days
Monday Night Weeklies
2 days
OSC
2 days
WardiTV Team League
3 days
GSL
4 days
The PondCast
5 days
WardiTV Team League
5 days
Replay Cast
5 days
WardiTV Team League
6 days
Korean StarCraft League
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-03-13
WardiTV Winter 2026
Underdog Cup #3

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 1
Jeongseon Sooper Cup
BSL Season 22
RSL Revival: Season 4
Nations Cup 2026
ESL Pro League S23 Finals
ESL Pro League S23 Stage 1&2
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter Qual

Upcoming

CSL Elite League 2026
ASL Season 21
Acropolis #4 - TS6
2026 Changsha Offline CUP
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
CSLAN 4
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
NationLESS Cup
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.