• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 09:34
CEST 15:34
KST 22:34
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: Within Reach5[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy11[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8
Community News
SC4ALL: II SC2 Complete Invited Player Lineup6StarCraft II 5.0.17 PTR Patch Notes (Sept 30, 2026)67Weekly Cups (Sept 21-27): herO and ByuN double2Weekly Cups (Sep 13-20): herO scores triple3BSL Season 2316
StarCraft 2
General
SC4ALL: II SC2 Complete Invited Player Lineup StarCraft II 5.0.17 PTR Patch Notes (Sept 30, 2026) Back to SC2 after 14 years - Protoss CTRL groups? How do you feel about the mass reverts in the 5.0.17 PTR? October World Ranking: herO stays #1, ByuN returns
Tourneys
Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20) 2026 GSTL Grand Finals Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond) SC2 INu's Battles#21 [ 3-Days tournament ]
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
[M] (2) Sweltering Sands [M] (2) Frigid Storage
External Content
The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 545 And Drops and Rifts Mutation # 544 Double Trouble Mutation # 543 Enhanced Defenses
Brood War
General
Fantasy returning? BW General Discussion Bot on ladder Sagi.gg Launcher Released BSL Season 23
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL22] Ro8 Day 4 2v2v2v2 Tournament [ASL22] Ro8 Day 3
Strategy
Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Replay Review Process - What do you do? Simple Questions, Simple Answers Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread General RTS Discussion Thread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Total Annihilation Zero
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25! Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread Artificial Intelligence Thread
Fan Clubs
Serral Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
[ASL22] Ro4 Day1 Ticket Giv…
bITt.mAN
Escaping Into Video Games: G…
TrAiDoS
38 yo Retired SWE loo…
PurE)Rabbit-SF
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
[meme] I finally understa…
LUCKY_NOOB
Regacy Esports:Our Goa…
regacyesports
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 9888 users

Extended Series Math

Blogs > VGhost
Post a Reply
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3621 Posts
August 01 2011 15:41 GMT
#1
MLG Extended Series... Much Bitching is Le Ensued.

MLG's "extended series" format, where a Bo3 becomes a Bo7 with previous results counted, guarantees the advancing player has a winning record head-to-head.
The other system that people keep proposing is the "win two Bo3" system, where the previous loser has to win 2, the previous winner only 1, Bo3. By counting in terms of series, it avoids the possibility of the "losing head to head advances" problem. In terms of games, tie records are possible, as in a 2-1, 0-2, 2-1 advance (or 0-2, 2-1, 2-1), but the series is made the main thing so that doesn't really matter.

Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to run some numbers and see how these two systems compare.

+ Show Spoiler [W/L Table] +
Extended from 0-2
W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L
L W W W W
L
L
L
L

Extended from 1-2

W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L

2 Bo3 System

W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L W
L W W
L
L
L W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L
L


Assume the two players are equally good. Then in the different situations, the loser of the first series has:

Extended Series (0-2): 18.75% chance to win
2 Bo3 System: 25.00% chance to win
Extended Series (1-2): 31.25% chance to win

In a regular DE tournament, the loser of the first match would still have a 50% chance to win, so any of these situations gives the first winner an advantage. That could be good or bad: I tend to think it's a good thing overall, especially since it's a known part of the format. I prefer the MLG extended to the 2 Bo3 because it rewards a "better" loss in the first place. Series wins are good, but the point of the series is to find out who's the better player.

Other Thoughts

MLG could juggle the brackets so that rematches simply don't happen in the open bracket. It's not that hard. There are 4 OBs and 8 LBs: so split the OBs (as it were) by finalists to create 8 brackets, then rotate the losers. For example, for the first LB round OB 1.1 losers -> LB 1, then the next round OB 1.1 losers -> LB2, etc. There are then 8 brackets and only 5 seeding-downs so the rotation never goes all the way around and there are no Open rematches and everyone's happy.

The championship bracket is a different story, naturally. Even with rotation there are 6 seeds from only 4 pools so you're almost guaranteed to get a rematch at some point. It's sort of surprising there aren't more: Anaheim had only 2; Columbus had 6; Dallas had 4. But if pool were made really and truly only for seeding, then extended series rules shouldn't apply to the championship bracket.

*
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
August 01 2011 15:53 GMT
#2
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.
Really, play for fun!
Uncultured
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1340 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:34:26
August 01 2011 16:33 GMT
#3
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.
Don't you rage when you lose too? -FruitDealer
lolsixtynine
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States600 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:56:56
August 01 2011 16:55 GMT
#4
On August 02 2011 00:53 ZpuX wrote:
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.


I'm guessing it's talking about the finals, where this actually does come up.

Edit: Looks like OP was just confused - the "2 bo3" system is exclusively being talked about for the finals, which is the only real debate... everyone outside of MLG agrees that extended series before the finals is terribad.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 18:19:25
August 01 2011 18:17 GMT
#5
On August 02 2011 01:33 Uncultured wrote:
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.

*edit* re read the OP, he is talking about winning "a bo3 consisting of bo3's". When you face each other in the LB again, the winner from WB only has to win one bo3 while the other player has to win 2 bo3's.

No, a fresh start would be as if you never played each other before. Why should someone have a harder road to the finals depending on who he got to face in the winner bracket?

Two players get knocked down to LB in the first round.

In the third round in LB, player A has to play an extended series, Which means player A has to win either 3 or 4 games to advance while player B only has to win 2 games. Does this seem fair?

Another point, why isn't this applied to every single round in the LB then? I mean it should make no difference who you lose to in WB. Playing from the LB will give you a disadvantage once you reach the final which is what should count.

Really, play for fun!
Blueblister
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden321 Posts
August 02 2011 22:03 GMT
#6
Like ZpuX said there isn't really much of a mathematical controversy between Extended Series (ES) and "first to 2 Bo3" systems.

Both are fine when the LB and WB winners meet in the finals and both are outrageous when two players meet in the LB. Instead the "2 Bo3" vs ES discussion is of a subjective and much more debatable nature. + Show Spoiler +
- People being against ES argues that it lessens suspense as the chance to come close to or to a final deciding game is much lower. (This is why many double-elimination tournaments eliminates the rule)
- People for ES assert the added fairness, which your above example is proof of.


Which system is is more fair in the finals isn't too much to debate about either as it's pretty easy to deduct which one is correct for which situation:
+ Show Spoiler +
It's always fair to use "first to 2 Bo3" with WB winner being up a Bo3 at the start. The extended series is also provably even more fair if the players has met before.


Note that the "losing head to head advances"-dilemma is illusionary for every instance except in the LB winner vs WB winner finals as it is based on false assumptions.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
INu's Battles
20:00
INu's Battles#21
Classic vs herO
IntoTheiNu 1135
LiquipediaDiscussion
Sparkling Tuna Cup
19:00
Weekly #149 (SHIN Mod Edition)
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
ProTech139
CosmosSc2 28
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 48209
Shuttle 7893
FanTaSy 1795
Hyuk 560
Horang2 498
BeSt 442
Pusan 331
EffOrt 211
Last 140
Mind 133
[ Show more ]
Soma 131
Zeus 104
ggaemo 84
Sexy 75
hero 70
Sea.KH 62
Aegong 61
Hyun 61
Killer 60
Snow 51
ToSsGirL 35
PianO 26
Bale 23
JYJ 22
NaDa 20
zelot 16
ajuk12(nOOB) 12
Rock 9
Sacsri 9
Noble 6
Icarus 5
Dota 2
Gorgc2409
qojqva1852
Dendi1183
XcaliburYe305
420jenkins55
Counter-Strike
fl0m3132
Heroes of the Storm
Liquid`Hasu604
Khaldor494
Other Games
gofns30332
B2W.Neo905
byalli462
Beastyqt443
Mlord300
Livibee202
Hui .166
ArmadaUGS118
Mew2King66
QueenE13
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick714
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream65
[ Show 10 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Adnapsc2 15
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Nemesis3038
Upcoming Events
Shopify Rebellion Sundays
1h 26m
MilkiCow vs TBD
Clem vs TBD
BSL Open Qualifier
5h 26m
BSL Open Qualifier
5h 26m
Replay Cast
9h 26m
Afreeca Starleague
20h 26m
Rush vs Light
WardiTV Weekly
21h 26m
Monday Night Weeklies
1d 2h
Replay Cast
1d 9h
Afreeca Starleague
1d 20h
Soma vs Soulkey
INu's Battles
1d 21h
SHIN vs Cure
ByuN vs Zoun
[ Show More ]
PiGosaur Cup
2 days
The PondCast
3 days
INu's Battles
3 days
Replay Cast
5 days
BSL: Ladder Tournament
6 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Calamity Invitational

Ongoing

ASL Season 22
Super Anchor Qualifying S3
Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - GSB
Copium Cup
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSC
BSL Season 23
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Custodian Cup
eXTREMESLAND 2026
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.