• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 11:08
CEST 17:08
KST 00:08
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy11[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9
Community News
Weekly Cups (Sep 13-20): herO scores triple2BSL Season 2312Weekly Cups (Sep 7-12): SHIN, ByuN, MaxPax double down1StarCraft open world shooter announced at BlizzCon101Weekly Cups (Aug 30-Sep 7): herO thrives amid growing schism10
StarCraft 2
General
How do you feel about the StarCraft shooter announcement at BlizzCon 2026? Balance hotfix patch 5.0.16b (July 16) Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool Weekly Cups (Sep 13-20): herO scores triple The Death of Cheese: From a Professional Cheeser
Tourneys
2026 GSTL Grand Finals ScienceCraft (October 24-25) - Live Event Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Master Swan Open (Global Bronze-Master 2) Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20)
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
[M] (2) Sweltering Sands [M] (2) Frigid Storage
External Content
Mutation # 544 Double Trouble The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 543 Enhanced Defenses Mutation # 542 The Ascended
Brood War
General
Bot on ladder Syncronization issues and can't find games an AI researcher's take on the ladder bot NaDa's Body BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/
Tourneys
[ASL22] Ro8 Day 1 [ASL22] Ro8 Day 2 [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [IPSL] IPSL is Back With Winter 26-27!
Strategy
Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Replay Review Process - What do you do? Simple Questions, Simple Answers Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne EVE Corporation Diablo IV
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25! Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Artificial Intelligence Thread All you football fans (soccer)!
Fan Clubs
MarineLorD Fan Club The Creator Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
Violent-Cooperative Play and…
TrAiDoS
38 yo Retired SWE loo…
PurE)Rabbit-SF
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
[meme] I finally understa…
LUCKY_NOOB
Regacy Esports:Our Goa…
regacyesports
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 7239 users

Extended Series Math

Blogs > VGhost
Post a Reply
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3621 Posts
August 01 2011 15:41 GMT
#1
MLG Extended Series... Much Bitching is Le Ensued.

MLG's "extended series" format, where a Bo3 becomes a Bo7 with previous results counted, guarantees the advancing player has a winning record head-to-head.
The other system that people keep proposing is the "win two Bo3" system, where the previous loser has to win 2, the previous winner only 1, Bo3. By counting in terms of series, it avoids the possibility of the "losing head to head advances" problem. In terms of games, tie records are possible, as in a 2-1, 0-2, 2-1 advance (or 0-2, 2-1, 2-1), but the series is made the main thing so that doesn't really matter.

Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to run some numbers and see how these two systems compare.

+ Show Spoiler [W/L Table] +
Extended from 0-2
W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L
L W W W W
L
L
L
L

Extended from 1-2

W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L

2 Bo3 System

W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L W
L W W
L
L
L W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L
L


Assume the two players are equally good. Then in the different situations, the loser of the first series has:

Extended Series (0-2): 18.75% chance to win
2 Bo3 System: 25.00% chance to win
Extended Series (1-2): 31.25% chance to win

In a regular DE tournament, the loser of the first match would still have a 50% chance to win, so any of these situations gives the first winner an advantage. That could be good or bad: I tend to think it's a good thing overall, especially since it's a known part of the format. I prefer the MLG extended to the 2 Bo3 because it rewards a "better" loss in the first place. Series wins are good, but the point of the series is to find out who's the better player.

Other Thoughts

MLG could juggle the brackets so that rematches simply don't happen in the open bracket. It's not that hard. There are 4 OBs and 8 LBs: so split the OBs (as it were) by finalists to create 8 brackets, then rotate the losers. For example, for the first LB round OB 1.1 losers -> LB 1, then the next round OB 1.1 losers -> LB2, etc. There are then 8 brackets and only 5 seeding-downs so the rotation never goes all the way around and there are no Open rematches and everyone's happy.

The championship bracket is a different story, naturally. Even with rotation there are 6 seeds from only 4 pools so you're almost guaranteed to get a rematch at some point. It's sort of surprising there aren't more: Anaheim had only 2; Columbus had 6; Dallas had 4. But if pool were made really and truly only for seeding, then extended series rules shouldn't apply to the championship bracket.

*
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
August 01 2011 15:53 GMT
#2
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.
Really, play for fun!
Uncultured
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1340 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:34:26
August 01 2011 16:33 GMT
#3
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.
Don't you rage when you lose too? -FruitDealer
lolsixtynine
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States600 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:56:56
August 01 2011 16:55 GMT
#4
On August 02 2011 00:53 ZpuX wrote:
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.


I'm guessing it's talking about the finals, where this actually does come up.

Edit: Looks like OP was just confused - the "2 bo3" system is exclusively being talked about for the finals, which is the only real debate... everyone outside of MLG agrees that extended series before the finals is terribad.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 18:19:25
August 01 2011 18:17 GMT
#5
On August 02 2011 01:33 Uncultured wrote:
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.

*edit* re read the OP, he is talking about winning "a bo3 consisting of bo3's". When you face each other in the LB again, the winner from WB only has to win one bo3 while the other player has to win 2 bo3's.

No, a fresh start would be as if you never played each other before. Why should someone have a harder road to the finals depending on who he got to face in the winner bracket?

Two players get knocked down to LB in the first round.

In the third round in LB, player A has to play an extended series, Which means player A has to win either 3 or 4 games to advance while player B only has to win 2 games. Does this seem fair?

Another point, why isn't this applied to every single round in the LB then? I mean it should make no difference who you lose to in WB. Playing from the LB will give you a disadvantage once you reach the final which is what should count.

Really, play for fun!
Blueblister
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden321 Posts
August 02 2011 22:03 GMT
#6
Like ZpuX said there isn't really much of a mathematical controversy between Extended Series (ES) and "first to 2 Bo3" systems.

Both are fine when the LB and WB winners meet in the finals and both are outrageous when two players meet in the LB. Instead the "2 Bo3" vs ES discussion is of a subjective and much more debatable nature. + Show Spoiler +
- People being against ES argues that it lessens suspense as the chance to come close to or to a final deciding game is much lower. (This is why many double-elimination tournaments eliminates the rule)
- People for ES assert the added fairness, which your above example is proof of.


Which system is is more fair in the finals isn't too much to debate about either as it's pretty easy to deduct which one is correct for which situation:
+ Show Spoiler +
It's always fair to use "first to 2 Bo3" with WB winner being up a Bo3 at the start. The extended series is also provably even more fair if the players has met before.


Note that the "losing head to head advances"-dilemma is illusionary for every instance except in the LB winner vs WB winner finals as it is based on false assumptions.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
WardiTV Invitational
11:00
WardiTV 10 Playoffs
ByuN vs ClassicLIVE!
Clem vs RogueLIVE!
SHIN vs TBD
WardiTV1243
IntoTheiNu 994
TaKeTV 414
IndyStarCraft 193
Rex140
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
IndyStarCraft 193
Rex 140
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 46831
EffOrt 1670
BeSt 806
Mini 602
actioN 585
ggaemo 228
Barracks 57
sSak 54
sorry 48
ToSsGirL 46
[ Show more ]
Hyun 38
NaDa 29
Bale 29
soO 20
Rock 18
zelot 17
Trap 14
Terrorterran 13
Free 12
yabsab 12
JulyZerg 8
Dota 2
Gorgc6448
Dendi820
Counter-Strike
edward70
Heroes of the Storm
Lowko375
Khaldor204
Other Games
singsing1806
B2W.Neo869
crisheroes398
Happy343
Liquid`VortiX183
ArmadaUGS141
KnowMe129
Mew2King71
Trikslyr22
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream15350
StarCraft 2
ComeBackTV 1281
StarCraft: Brood War
Afreeca ASL 293
Other Games
BasetradeTV74
[ Show 18 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH249
• StrangeGG 47
• intothetv
• Kozan
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• Migwel
• IndyKCrew
StarCraft: Brood War
• blackmanpl 25
• Michael_bg 12
• FirePhoenix3
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• C_a_k_e 2269
• WagamamaTV410
League of Legends
• Nemesis4135
• Jankos3202
Other Games
• Shiphtur52
Upcoming Events
AI Arena Tournament
1h 52m
BSL: Ladder Tournament
3h 52m
GSL
16h 52m
Yamato Cup
23h 52m
BSL Open Qualifier
1d 3h
BSL Open Qualifier
1d 3h
Replay Cast
1d 8h
Afreeca Starleague
1d 18h
Soma vs Jaedong
WardiTV Weekly
1d 19h
Monday Night Weeklies
2 days
[ Show More ]
Sparkling Tuna Cup
2 days
Afreeca Starleague
2 days
Leta vs Soulkey
PiGosaur Cup
3 days
Kung Fu Cup
3 days
The PondCast
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
6 days
Online Event
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Acropolis #5 - GSA
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1

Ongoing

ASL Season 22
CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Acropolis #5
Calamity Invitational
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSB
Acropolis #5 - GSC
BSL Season 23
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Custodian Cup
Copium Cup
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.