• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 05:21
CEST 11:21
KST 18:21
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners6Code S Season 2 (2026): RO4 and Finals Preview12TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection7Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview5[ASL21] Finals Preview: Two Legacies21
Community News
Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28)6[BSL22] Non-Korean Championship from 13 to 28 June4Weekly Cups (May 25-31): Clem doubles, 2v2 circuit heads toward finale0StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th153Weekly Cups (May 18-24): MaxPax wins doubles0
StarCraft 2
General
High level ptr replays? where can I find them? StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners TL Poll: How do you feel about the 5.0.16 PTR balance changes? TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection
Tourneys
Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule ! Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28) Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond) GSL Code S Season 2 (2026)
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
Dubai Escorts [D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3
External Content
The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 529 Opportunities Unleashed Mutation # 528 Infection Detected Welcome to the External Content forum
Brood War
General
[BSL22] Non-Korean Championship from 13 to 28 June BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ vespene.gg — BW replays in browser The Korean Terminology Thread Data needed
Tourneys
[ASL21] Grand Finals [BSL22] Grand Finals - Sunday 21:00 CEST [Megathread] Daily Proleagues Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2
Strategy
Creating a full chart of Zerg builds Relatively freeroll strategies Why doesn't anyone use restoration? Any training maps people recommend?
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread PC Games Sales Thread ZeroSpace Megathread Summer Games Done Quick 2026!
Dota 2
Looking for a Dota Mentor Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread US Politics Mega-thread Trading/Investing Thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine
Fan Clubs
The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books [TV/BOOK] *SPOILERS* Game of Thrones Discussion [Manga] One Piece
Sports
Cricket [SPORT] TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 2024 - 2026 Football Thread NBA General Discussion McBoner: A hockey love story
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Facing Challenges in Mobile App Development
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
How Streaming Impacts Game P…
TrAiDoS
An Exploration of th…
waywardstrategy
I'm an arrogant trash talke…
FlaShFTW
Gauntlet SC2: A Retrospectiv…
Ctone23
Why RTS gamers make better f…
gosubay
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 7296 users

Extended Series Math

Blogs > VGhost
Post a Reply
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3620 Posts
August 01 2011 15:41 GMT
#1
MLG Extended Series... Much Bitching is Le Ensued.

MLG's "extended series" format, where a Bo3 becomes a Bo7 with previous results counted, guarantees the advancing player has a winning record head-to-head.
The other system that people keep proposing is the "win two Bo3" system, where the previous loser has to win 2, the previous winner only 1, Bo3. By counting in terms of series, it avoids the possibility of the "losing head to head advances" problem. In terms of games, tie records are possible, as in a 2-1, 0-2, 2-1 advance (or 0-2, 2-1, 2-1), but the series is made the main thing so that doesn't really matter.

Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to run some numbers and see how these two systems compare.

+ Show Spoiler [W/L Table] +
Extended from 0-2
W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L
L W W W W
L
L
L
L

Extended from 1-2

W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L

2 Bo3 System

W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L W
L W W
L
L
L W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L
L


Assume the two players are equally good. Then in the different situations, the loser of the first series has:

Extended Series (0-2): 18.75% chance to win
2 Bo3 System: 25.00% chance to win
Extended Series (1-2): 31.25% chance to win

In a regular DE tournament, the loser of the first match would still have a 50% chance to win, so any of these situations gives the first winner an advantage. That could be good or bad: I tend to think it's a good thing overall, especially since it's a known part of the format. I prefer the MLG extended to the 2 Bo3 because it rewards a "better" loss in the first place. Series wins are good, but the point of the series is to find out who's the better player.

Other Thoughts

MLG could juggle the brackets so that rematches simply don't happen in the open bracket. It's not that hard. There are 4 OBs and 8 LBs: so split the OBs (as it were) by finalists to create 8 brackets, then rotate the losers. For example, for the first LB round OB 1.1 losers -> LB 1, then the next round OB 1.1 losers -> LB2, etc. There are then 8 brackets and only 5 seeding-downs so the rotation never goes all the way around and there are no Open rematches and everyone's happy.

The championship bracket is a different story, naturally. Even with rotation there are 6 seeds from only 4 pools so you're almost guaranteed to get a rematch at some point. It's sort of surprising there aren't more: Anaheim had only 2; Columbus had 6; Dallas had 4. But if pool were made really and truly only for seeding, then extended series rules shouldn't apply to the championship bracket.

*
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
August 01 2011 15:53 GMT
#2
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.
Really, play for fun!
Uncultured
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1340 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:34:26
August 01 2011 16:33 GMT
#3
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.
Don't you rage when you lose too? -FruitDealer
lolsixtynine
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States600 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:56:56
August 01 2011 16:55 GMT
#4
On August 02 2011 00:53 ZpuX wrote:
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.


I'm guessing it's talking about the finals, where this actually does come up.

Edit: Looks like OP was just confused - the "2 bo3" system is exclusively being talked about for the finals, which is the only real debate... everyone outside of MLG agrees that extended series before the finals is terribad.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 18:19:25
August 01 2011 18:17 GMT
#5
On August 02 2011 01:33 Uncultured wrote:
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.

*edit* re read the OP, he is talking about winning "a bo3 consisting of bo3's". When you face each other in the LB again, the winner from WB only has to win one bo3 while the other player has to win 2 bo3's.

No, a fresh start would be as if you never played each other before. Why should someone have a harder road to the finals depending on who he got to face in the winner bracket?

Two players get knocked down to LB in the first round.

In the third round in LB, player A has to play an extended series, Which means player A has to win either 3 or 4 games to advance while player B only has to win 2 games. Does this seem fair?

Another point, why isn't this applied to every single round in the LB then? I mean it should make no difference who you lose to in WB. Playing from the LB will give you a disadvantage once you reach the final which is what should count.

Really, play for fun!
Blueblister
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden321 Posts
August 02 2011 22:03 GMT
#6
Like ZpuX said there isn't really much of a mathematical controversy between Extended Series (ES) and "first to 2 Bo3" systems.

Both are fine when the LB and WB winners meet in the finals and both are outrageous when two players meet in the LB. Instead the "2 Bo3" vs ES discussion is of a subjective and much more debatable nature. + Show Spoiler +
- People being against ES argues that it lessens suspense as the chance to come close to or to a final deciding game is much lower. (This is why many double-elimination tournaments eliminates the rule)
- People for ES assert the added fairness, which your above example is proof of.


Which system is is more fair in the finals isn't too much to debate about either as it's pretty easy to deduct which one is correct for which situation:
+ Show Spoiler +
It's always fair to use "first to 2 Bo3" with WB winner being up a Bo3 at the start. The extended series is also provably even more fair if the players has met before.


Note that the "losing head to head advances"-dilemma is illusionary for every instance except in the LB winner vs WB winner finals as it is based on false assumptions.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 39m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
ProTech75
StarCraft: Brood War
Zeus 514
Mind 405
Leta 187
EffOrt 98
Dewaltoss 86
sorry 67
ToSsGirL 39
soO 30
[sc1f]eonzerg 23
Sacsri 21
[ Show more ]
Noble 15
ajuk12(nOOB) 14
NotJumperer 12
League of Legends
JimRising 482
Counter-Strike
fl0m2164
Stewie2K881
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King112
Other Games
XaKoH 168
Pyrionflax51
RuFF_SC242
SHIN 35
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick734
BasetradeTV146
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH269
• LUISG 49
• iHatsuTV 10
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Jankos1664
Other Games
• WagamamaTV460
Upcoming Events
CranKy Ducklings
39m
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
5h 39m
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
9h 39m
eOnzErG vs Mihu
Messiah vs XuanXuan
Jaystar vs TerrOr
Dewalt vs Bonyth
eOnzErG vs XuanXuan
Mihu vs TerrOr
Messiah vs Bonyth
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
1d 5h
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
1d 9h
Jaystar vs Dewalt
eOnzErG vs TerrOr
XuanXuan vs Bonyth
Mihu vs Dewalt
Messiah vs Jaystar
eOnzErG vs Bonyth
TerrOr vs Dewalt
Wardi Open
2 days
OSC
2 days
Replay Cast
3 days
The PondCast
5 days
[ Show More ]
Replay Cast
5 days
OSC
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Acropolis #4 - GSB
2026 GSL S2
Heroes Pulsing #1

Ongoing

IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
Acropolis #4
CSCL: Masked Kings S4
YSL S3
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
SCTL 2026 Spring
Maestros of the Game 2
WardiTV Spring 2026
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Murky Cup 2026
Heroes Pulsing #2
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1

Upcoming

CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
HSC XXIX
Douyu Cup 2026
Heroes Pulsing #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.