• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 15:54
CEST 21:54
KST 04:54
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners7Code S Season 2 (2026): RO4 and Finals Preview12TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection7Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview7[ASL21] Finals Preview: Two Legacies21
Community News
Weekly Cups (June 8-14): Clem and Solar double, PTR tested0RSL: S6 Finals played at BlizzCon 202611Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28)10[BSL22] Non-Korean Championship from 13 to 28 June4Weekly Cups (May 25-31): Clem doubles, 2v2 circuit heads toward finale0
StarCraft 2
General
StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th Daily SC2 Player Grid - feedback wanted TL Poll: How do you feel about the 5.0.16 PTR balance changes? Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview Updates to The Core/Core Lite for v5.0.16?
Tourneys
Master Swan Open (Global Bronze-Master 2) GSL CK #4 20-21th June Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28) Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule !
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
Work In Progress Melee Maps [D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3
External Content
Mutation # 530 One For All The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 529 Opportunities Unleashed Mutation # 528 Infection Detected
Brood War
General
BW General Discussion vespene.gg — BW replays in browser Where is EffOrt? BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Quality of life changes in BW that you will like ?
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL21] Grand Finals [BSL22] Grand Finals - Sunday 21:00 CEST Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Relatively freeroll strategies Creating a full chart of Zerg builds Why doesn't anyone use restoration?
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread ZeroSpace Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Beyond All Reason Total War: Warhammer 40K
Dota 2
Looking for a Dota Mentor Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread The Games Industry And ATVI UK Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread [H]Internet/Gaming Cafe Tips and Tricks
Fan Clubs
The HerO Fan Club! The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books [TV/BOOK] *SPOILERS* Game of Thrones Discussion [Manga] One Piece
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion Cricket [SPORT] NBA General Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Facing Challenges in Mobile App Development
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Does Workplace Frustration D…
TrAiDoS
An Exploration of th…
waywardstrategy
I'm an arrogant trash talke…
FlaShFTW
Gauntlet SC2: A Retrospectiv…
Ctone23
Why RTS gamers make better f…
gosubay
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 9649 users

Extended Series Math

Blogs > VGhost
Post a Reply
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3620 Posts
August 01 2011 15:41 GMT
#1
MLG Extended Series... Much Bitching is Le Ensued.

MLG's "extended series" format, where a Bo3 becomes a Bo7 with previous results counted, guarantees the advancing player has a winning record head-to-head.
The other system that people keep proposing is the "win two Bo3" system, where the previous loser has to win 2, the previous winner only 1, Bo3. By counting in terms of series, it avoids the possibility of the "losing head to head advances" problem. In terms of games, tie records are possible, as in a 2-1, 0-2, 2-1 advance (or 0-2, 2-1, 2-1), but the series is made the main thing so that doesn't really matter.

Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to run some numbers and see how these two systems compare.

+ Show Spoiler [W/L Table] +
Extended from 0-2
W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L
L W W W W
L
L
L
L

Extended from 1-2

W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L

2 Bo3 System

W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L W
L W W
L
L
L W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L
L


Assume the two players are equally good. Then in the different situations, the loser of the first series has:

Extended Series (0-2): 18.75% chance to win
2 Bo3 System: 25.00% chance to win
Extended Series (1-2): 31.25% chance to win

In a regular DE tournament, the loser of the first match would still have a 50% chance to win, so any of these situations gives the first winner an advantage. That could be good or bad: I tend to think it's a good thing overall, especially since it's a known part of the format. I prefer the MLG extended to the 2 Bo3 because it rewards a "better" loss in the first place. Series wins are good, but the point of the series is to find out who's the better player.

Other Thoughts

MLG could juggle the brackets so that rematches simply don't happen in the open bracket. It's not that hard. There are 4 OBs and 8 LBs: so split the OBs (as it were) by finalists to create 8 brackets, then rotate the losers. For example, for the first LB round OB 1.1 losers -> LB 1, then the next round OB 1.1 losers -> LB2, etc. There are then 8 brackets and only 5 seeding-downs so the rotation never goes all the way around and there are no Open rematches and everyone's happy.

The championship bracket is a different story, naturally. Even with rotation there are 6 seeds from only 4 pools so you're almost guaranteed to get a rematch at some point. It's sort of surprising there aren't more: Anaheim had only 2; Columbus had 6; Dallas had 4. But if pool were made really and truly only for seeding, then extended series rules shouldn't apply to the championship bracket.

*
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
August 01 2011 15:53 GMT
#2
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.
Really, play for fun!
Uncultured
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1340 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:34:26
August 01 2011 16:33 GMT
#3
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.
Don't you rage when you lose too? -FruitDealer
lolsixtynine
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States600 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:56:56
August 01 2011 16:55 GMT
#4
On August 02 2011 00:53 ZpuX wrote:
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.


I'm guessing it's talking about the finals, where this actually does come up.

Edit: Looks like OP was just confused - the "2 bo3" system is exclusively being talked about for the finals, which is the only real debate... everyone outside of MLG agrees that extended series before the finals is terribad.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 18:19:25
August 01 2011 18:17 GMT
#5
On August 02 2011 01:33 Uncultured wrote:
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.

*edit* re read the OP, he is talking about winning "a bo3 consisting of bo3's". When you face each other in the LB again, the winner from WB only has to win one bo3 while the other player has to win 2 bo3's.

No, a fresh start would be as if you never played each other before. Why should someone have a harder road to the finals depending on who he got to face in the winner bracket?

Two players get knocked down to LB in the first round.

In the third round in LB, player A has to play an extended series, Which means player A has to win either 3 or 4 games to advance while player B only has to win 2 games. Does this seem fair?

Another point, why isn't this applied to every single round in the LB then? I mean it should make no difference who you lose to in WB. Playing from the LB will give you a disadvantage once you reach the final which is what should count.

Really, play for fun!
Blueblister
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden321 Posts
August 02 2011 22:03 GMT
#6
Like ZpuX said there isn't really much of a mathematical controversy between Extended Series (ES) and "first to 2 Bo3" systems.

Both are fine when the LB and WB winners meet in the finals and both are outrageous when two players meet in the LB. Instead the "2 Bo3" vs ES discussion is of a subjective and much more debatable nature. + Show Spoiler +
- People being against ES argues that it lessens suspense as the chance to come close to or to a final deciding game is much lower. (This is why many double-elimination tournaments eliminates the rule)
- People for ES assert the added fairness, which your above example is proof of.


Which system is is more fair in the finals isn't too much to debate about either as it's pretty easy to deduct which one is correct for which situation:
+ Show Spoiler +
It's always fair to use "first to 2 Bo3" with WB winner being up a Bo3 at the start. The extended series is also provably even more fair if the players has met before.


Note that the "losing head to head advances"-dilemma is illusionary for every instance except in the LB winner vs WB winner finals as it is based on false assumptions.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 14h 6m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
UpATreeSC 267
ProTech145
mouzHeroMarine 113
BRAT_OK 99
Livibee 78
MindelVK 35
StarCraft: Brood War
Sea 631
Soulkey 405
Dewaltoss 126
910 21
Sacsri 17
IntoTheRainbow 16
GoRush 11
NaDa 7
Counter-Strike
pashabiceps2297
fl0m2047
x6flipin396
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King120
Other Games
Grubby3378
Beastyqt625
FrodaN613
B2W.Neo583
C9.Mang0239
ZombieGrub143
ArmadaUGS120
JuggernautJason88
Trikslyr50
ROOTCatZ0
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream3708
Other Games
ComeBackTV 165
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 18 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• maralekos32
• Reevou 2
• Kozan
• Migwel
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• sooper7s
• intothetv
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• blackmanpl 29
• HerbMon 23
• FirePhoenix9
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
League of Legends
• TFBlade1143
Counter-Strike
• imaqtpie999
• Shiphtur171
Upcoming Events
The PondCast
14h 6m
WardiTV Spring Champion…
15h 6m
MaxPax vs SHIN
ByuN vs herO
Solar vs Zoun
OSC
17h 6m
OSC
1d 4h
CranKy Ducklings
1d 14h
WardiTV Spring Champion…
1d 15h
Cure vs SKillous
WardiTV Spring Champion…
2 days
GSL
2 days
Maru vs ShoWTimE
Classic vs Reynor
herO vs Lambo
Solar vs Clem
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
2 days
XuanXuan vs Jaystar
Mihu vs Messiah
eOnzErG vs Dewalt
Bonyth vs Jaystar
TerrOr vs Messiah
XuanXuan vs Mihu
eOnzErG vs Jaystar
Replay Cast
3 days
[ Show More ]
WardiTV Spring Champion…
3 days
GSL
3 days
Patches Events
3 days
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
3 days
Dewalt vs Messiah
Bonyth vs Mihu
TerrOr vs XuanXuan
eOnzErG vs Messiah
Jaystar vs Mihu
Dewalt vs XuanXuan
Bonyth vs TerrOr
Replay Cast
4 days
WardiTV Weekly
4 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
5 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-06-16
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Heroes Pulsing #1

Ongoing

IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
Acropolis #4
CSCL: Masked Kings S4
YSL S3
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
SCTL 2026 Spring
Maestros of the Game 2
WardiTV Spring 2026
Murky Cup 2026
Heroes Pulsing #2
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1

Upcoming

CSL 2026 Summer (S21)
CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Revival: Season 6
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
HSC XXIX
Douyu Cup 2026
BCC 2026
Heroes Pulsing #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.