• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 03:40
CEST 09:40
KST 16:40
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection1Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview4[ASL21] Finals Preview: Two Legacies21Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO12 Preview2herO wins GSL Code S Season 1 (2026)7
Community News
StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th74Weekly Cups (May 18-25): MaxPax wins doubles0Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League4Weekly Cups (May 11-17): Classic wins double1Code S Season 1 (2026) - RO8 Results2
StarCraft 2
General
AllPanelExch com Overview: Registration, Login, an StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th Changing from 12 to 8 is just asking for StarCraft TL Poll: How do you feel about the 5.0.16 PTR balance changes? Weekly Cups (May 11-17): Classic wins double
Tourneys
GSL Code S Season 2 (2026) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League GSL Code S Season 1 (2026) Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule !
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
[D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3 [A] Nemrods 1/4 players
External Content
Welcome to the External Content forum Mutation # 527 Hell Train The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 526 Rubber and Glue
Brood War
General
FlaShFTW vs A.Alm Grudge Match Event Every Matchup's Top 5 Winrates (all ASLs & KSLs) Pros React To: ASL S21 Finals VPN experiences Quality of life changes in BW that you will like ?
Tourneys
[ASL21] Grand Finals Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2 [BSL22] WB Final & LB Semis - Saturday 21:00 CEST Small VOD Thread 2.0
Strategy
Any training maps people recommend? Muta micro map competition [G] Hydra ZvZ: An Introduction Fighting Spirit mining rates
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread ZeroSpace Megathread Path of Exile Dawn of War IV
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas TL Mafia Community Thread Five o'clock TL Mafia
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Trading/Investing Thread Dating: How's your luck?
Fan Clubs
The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books
Sports
McBoner: A hockey love story 2024 - 2026 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Facing Challenges in Mobile App Development
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Customization Drives Loyalty…
TrAiDoS
Why RTS gamers make better f…
gosubay
ramps on octagon
StaticNine
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1711 users

Extended Series Math

Blogs > VGhost
Post a Reply
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3620 Posts
August 01 2011 15:41 GMT
#1
MLG Extended Series... Much Bitching is Le Ensued.

MLG's "extended series" format, where a Bo3 becomes a Bo7 with previous results counted, guarantees the advancing player has a winning record head-to-head.
The other system that people keep proposing is the "win two Bo3" system, where the previous loser has to win 2, the previous winner only 1, Bo3. By counting in terms of series, it avoids the possibility of the "losing head to head advances" problem. In terms of games, tie records are possible, as in a 2-1, 0-2, 2-1 advance (or 0-2, 2-1, 2-1), but the series is made the main thing so that doesn't really matter.

Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to run some numbers and see how these two systems compare.

+ Show Spoiler [W/L Table] +
Extended from 0-2
W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L
L W W W W
L
L
L
L

Extended from 1-2

W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L
L
L

2 Bo3 System

W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L W W W
L W
L W W
L
L
L W W W W
L W
L
L W W
L
L
L
L


Assume the two players are equally good. Then in the different situations, the loser of the first series has:

Extended Series (0-2): 18.75% chance to win
2 Bo3 System: 25.00% chance to win
Extended Series (1-2): 31.25% chance to win

In a regular DE tournament, the loser of the first match would still have a 50% chance to win, so any of these situations gives the first winner an advantage. That could be good or bad: I tend to think it's a good thing overall, especially since it's a known part of the format. I prefer the MLG extended to the 2 Bo3 because it rewards a "better" loss in the first place. Series wins are good, but the point of the series is to find out who's the better player.

Other Thoughts

MLG could juggle the brackets so that rematches simply don't happen in the open bracket. It's not that hard. There are 4 OBs and 8 LBs: so split the OBs (as it were) by finalists to create 8 brackets, then rotate the losers. For example, for the first LB round OB 1.1 losers -> LB 1, then the next round OB 1.1 losers -> LB2, etc. There are then 8 brackets and only 5 seeding-downs so the rotation never goes all the way around and there are no Open rematches and everyone's happy.

The championship bracket is a different story, naturally. Even with rotation there are 6 seeds from only 4 pools so you're almost guaranteed to get a rematch at some point. It's sort of surprising there aren't more: Anaheim had only 2; Columbus had 6; Dallas had 4. But if pool were made really and truly only for seeding, then extended series rules shouldn't apply to the championship bracket.

*
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
August 01 2011 15:53 GMT
#2
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.
Really, play for fun!
Uncultured
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1340 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:34:26
August 01 2011 16:33 GMT
#3
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.
Don't you rage when you lose too? -FruitDealer
lolsixtynine
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States600 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 16:56:56
August 01 2011 16:55 GMT
#4
On August 02 2011 00:53 ZpuX wrote:
... There is no discussion between 2 bo3's or extended series... The discussion is about extended series or a fresh start at 0-0 when facing each other in the loser brackets.


I'm guessing it's talking about the finals, where this actually does come up.

Edit: Looks like OP was just confused - the "2 bo3" system is exclusively being talked about for the finals, which is the only real debate... everyone outside of MLG agrees that extended series before the finals is terribad.
ZpuX
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Sweden1230 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-01 18:19:25
August 01 2011 18:17 GMT
#5
On August 02 2011 01:33 Uncultured wrote:
... A fresh start in mlg would be two best of 3's ZpuX. The first, when you first meet, the second in lose losers bracket. Where as extended series is akin to a best of seven, starting with the score from your last series.

*edit* re read the OP, he is talking about winning "a bo3 consisting of bo3's". When you face each other in the LB again, the winner from WB only has to win one bo3 while the other player has to win 2 bo3's.

No, a fresh start would be as if you never played each other before. Why should someone have a harder road to the finals depending on who he got to face in the winner bracket?

Two players get knocked down to LB in the first round.

In the third round in LB, player A has to play an extended series, Which means player A has to win either 3 or 4 games to advance while player B only has to win 2 games. Does this seem fair?

Another point, why isn't this applied to every single round in the LB then? I mean it should make no difference who you lose to in WB. Playing from the LB will give you a disadvantage once you reach the final which is what should count.

Really, play for fun!
Blueblister
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden321 Posts
August 02 2011 22:03 GMT
#6
Like ZpuX said there isn't really much of a mathematical controversy between Extended Series (ES) and "first to 2 Bo3" systems.

Both are fine when the LB and WB winners meet in the finals and both are outrageous when two players meet in the LB. Instead the "2 Bo3" vs ES discussion is of a subjective and much more debatable nature. + Show Spoiler +
- People being against ES argues that it lessens suspense as the chance to come close to or to a final deciding game is much lower. (This is why many double-elimination tournaments eliminates the rule)
- People for ES assert the added fairness, which your above example is proof of.


Which system is is more fair in the finals isn't too much to debate about either as it's pretty easy to deduct which one is correct for which situation:
+ Show Spoiler +
It's always fair to use "first to 2 Bo3" with WB winner being up a Bo3 at the start. The extended series is also provably even more fair if the players has met before.


Note that the "losing head to head advances"-dilemma is illusionary for every instance except in the LB winner vs WB winner finals as it is based on false assumptions.
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
RSL Revival
07:00
Season 5: Playoffs Day 5
Lambo vs SHINLIVE!
Solar vs Rogue
herO vs Clem
Tasteless644
IntoTheiNu 495
Ryung 292
IndyStarCraft 87
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
WinterStarcraft835
Tasteless 644
Ryung 292
IndyStarCraft 87
Rex 75
StarCraft: Brood War
Sea 4749
Dewaltoss 50
Noble 20
League of Legends
JimRising 662
Other Games
summit1g9507
C9.Mang0384
Sick128
Mew2King60
RuFF_SC255
ViBE54
trigger0
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick674
Counter-Strike
PGL320
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 12 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Nemesis2259
• Lourlo968
Upcoming Events
Maestros of the Game
3h 20m
SKillous vs Ryung
Solar vs Percival
Maru vs sOs
Lambo vs Arrogfire
IPSL
8h 20m
ZZZero vs WorsT
Julia vs eOnzErG
BSL
11h 20m
TerrOr vs Dewalt
Bonyth vs eOnzErG
Replay Cast
16h 20m
RSL Revival
23h 20m
Maestros of the Game
1d 5h
SHIN vs Nicoract
Rogue vs Gerald
ByuN vs Shameless
Cure vs TriGGeR
OSC
1d 5h
IPSL
1d 8h
Dragon vs Artosis
dxtr13 vs Hawk
BSL
1d 11h
Wardi Open
2 days
[ Show More ]
Monday Night Weeklies
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
3 days
WardiTV Spring Champion…
3 days
Maestros of the Game
3 days
The PondCast
4 days
Kung Fu Cup
4 days
Maestros of the Game
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
WardiTV Spring Champion…
5 days
Maestros of the Game
5 days
Replay Cast
6 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
6 days
Maestros of the Game
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Escore Tournament S2: King of Kings
2026 GSL S1
Heroes Pulsing #1

Ongoing

2026 KK StarCraft Pro League
BSL Season 22
IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
KK 2v2 League Season 1
Acropolis #4
CSCL: Masked Kings S4
YSL S3
SCTL 2026 Spring
WardiTV Spring 2026
Maestros of the Game 2
2026 GSL S2
RSL Revival: Season 5
Bounty Cup 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026

Upcoming

BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Heroes Pulsing #3
Heroes Pulsing #2
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.