Germany economy falling into Japanese trap? - Page 5
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MoltkeWarding
5195 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11044 Posts
Globally, the human population is still growing greatly. There are lots of countries with very high fertility rates and a low(er than german) standards of living. If we need young people, why not just let some of the young people from those countries come to germany? They get to have a western standard of living, we get to have more young people to pay for pensions etc... Everyone wins. | ||
MoltkeWarding
5195 Posts
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Lucumo
6850 Posts
On November 18 2014 20:37 aXa wrote: Well yes of course you have to "subsidize" the cost of parenting. You also have to make progress in gender equality. Right now in Germany, women have to take a 3 years break or so from work to raise children. Some will say because it is socially not very well accepted not to raise your children on your own, I prefer to say that it's the lack of childcare that restrict a woman's option. So they just don't make children and continue to work. I think you invest in demography by doing the following: - Make childcare inexpensive and available for everyone - Make education inexpensive and available for everyone - State allowance for each children - The more children you have, the less tax you pay - Split equally mother and father rights to take vacations when having a newborn child And so on. Last point was already addressed in Germany. On November 19 2014 00:50 mahrgell wrote: In fact the last round of reforms, allowing fathers to spend a similar time at home with the child as the mothers (and increasing that total time), was imho one of the most constructive things ever to somehow solve that situation. First point is of utmost importance, in my opinion. A place in a Kita is extremely hard to get. And even if you manage to get one, you often have to take your child during lunch hour which is completely retarded. Money isn't necessarily the problem, though, children's clothing is pretty expensive. And with the media and fashion sense, too many parents always want fitting clothes for their childs. Back in the day you bought some sizes bigger because the child will grow into it rather fast anyway. If you have more than one kid, just reuse some clothes, it's not that hard. | ||
Skilledblob
Germany3392 Posts
My parents both grew up in the former GDR parts of germany they were born towards the end of the 60s and my mother had her first child in 1988. in the GDRs school system when you went to high school you also did your apprenticeship in the same time. So when my mother was done with high school she had her apprenticeship + diploma and entered university at the age of 18. As far as she told me university curiculums in the GDR were a lot more organized then they are today, no "free" chosing of what and how many courses you take etc, which meant she was done with university around age 22. She met my father in university, he went there later because of the mandatory 2 years military service and did not finish university. So at age 22 my mother was already through the education system had her university Diploma and went to work. Two years later she bacame pregnant and after giving birth a couple months later my father took "baby holidays" for 1 or 2 years not sure, to raise my sister and after that he went back to work and my sister was sent to kindergarten. What I am trying to get at with this story is that in my opinion the main reason of our low birth rate is 1. our awful education system that promotes longer and longer times spent in university, I got no numbers here but it would not surprise me if the average age of people who leave university is around 25 now. Which in turn means a later entry into the job market for women which means financial stability for these women is also later. Own appartment no debts etc. 2. until recently fathers did not have the same rights to take time out to take care of the children, for what ever reason. 3. most laws that I am aware of target a model of a stay at home mom to take care of the children until they can go to school, which in the economic reality in germany is just not feasable. Most infamous for this is probably the so called "kitchenbonus" for mothers who stay at home to raise kids. This view how a family should be in my eyes is medieval and only there to appease the peasants in bavaria who stay at their farms anyway. 4. kindergarten spots have since the 1990s constantly reduced and the ones that are still around have huge waiting lists and costs. this is a cycle that leads to less births and less births mean higher costs for the remaining places and so on. 5. also another problem atm is the rising numbers of yearly limited work contracts. How are you supposed to plan for a family when next year you could be out of a job and might have to move somewhere else? So imho what you need for a higher number of families and children is stability. Monetary incentives are fine but those are probably better used by the state to build up good daycare infrastructure and for support of people who stay at home for the first year to take care of the new born child. This would help women to get back into the workforce after the pregnancy and not force them to stay home for 3 years and then not have a job anymore. The model of a housewive and a dad who bring home the dough is simply not possible anymore for most people in germany and it's a stupid system anyway. Our government needs to acknowledge that. | ||
Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On November 19 2014 02:15 MoltkeWarding wrote: That is fine, as long as you don't care what kind of country you live in. To me it has the same appeal as going to Kyrgyzstan for better marriage bids; I get to both abduct my bridal choice and share a sacrificial goat with her parents. Assimilation is also possible, especially if the immigrants are young. Also cultures can blend, it's not a black and white issue. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On November 18 2014 23:52 MoltkeWarding wrote: You were talking about integration. The Chinese junk peddlers in Manhattan's Chinatown are not integrated, by any stretching of the word. Actually, it is almost hilarious the predictability with which Germany's Chinese demographic finds itself employed in the ethnic cuisine industry. remark on your racial essences view of germans and its relevance to integration. no idea what you are going for here. also was mainly talking about 2nd generation integration, which is through schools and the non-ghetto job market. | ||
MoltkeWarding
5195 Posts
On November 19 2014 02:38 Nyxisto wrote: Assimilation is also possible, especially if the immigrants are young. Also cultures can blend, it's not a black and white issue. In the case of Germany, it is closer to the truth to assert that assimilation is only possible when young, and even then only through extremely loose parents, mixed marriages, or inter-generational rebellion. Almost no one who migrates to Germany after maturity will conceive of himself as a German. In the case of visible minorities, that almost becomes an absolute. It would be inconceivable for me to assert that I am German regardless of how long I live there or how much Goethe I can recite. Of course, there is a natural hierarchy in the order of assimilation. I could live in Germany my entire life and never face a single demand that I should assimilate. If you emigrated to China tomorrow, you would never dream of calling yourself a Chinaman, and no one would ever complain. There is an unspoken fact in all this, and that is people demand assimilation only when they don't like you and your kind. remark on your racial essences view of germans and its relevance to integration. no idea what you are going for here. also was mainly talking about 2nd generation integration, which is through schools and the non-ghetto job market. Yes, obviously if you are born into an altered culture after the fact and acclimatised to the status quo from birth, all the ethnic problems of the past and present are merely a part of what you have come to take for granted. Second generation integration is precisely what Germany has not been able to achieve with the majority of its immigrants, and asserting class mobility as a vehicle of entry into national identity is flip flopping cause and effect. National and cultural consciousness influence class mobility and not vice versa. | ||
Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On November 19 2014 03:29 MoltkeWarding wrote: Second generation integration is precisely what Germany has not been able to achieve with the majority of its immigrants, and asserting class mobility as a vehicle of entry into national identity is flip flopping cause and effect. National and cultural consciousness influences class mobility and not vice versa. This is actually untrue. The only group that has traditionally had problems with integration are Turkish immigrants, which are the largest group of immigrants but they're very far from being the majority. Also there's very little Turkish immigration today. The overwhelming majority of new immigrants stems from Eastern Europe and they actually integrate pretty effortlessly. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
yes, chinatowns and chinese restaurants exist, but they are mostly owned by integrated businesspersons but employ recent immigrants. and obviously germans have integrated successfully into the u.s. so have a variety of other european cultures, and this is within a history that is not short on racial conflict. i'm not sure what is going on in germany to cause the lack of integration and particularly 2nd generation integration, if this claim is true. | ||
MoltkeWarding
5195 Posts
On November 19 2014 03:54 Nyxisto wrote: This is actually untrue. The only group that has traditionally had problems with integration are Turkish immigrants, which are the largest group of immigrants but they're very far from being the majority. Also there's very little Turkish immigration today. The overwhelming majority of new immigrants stems from Eastern Europe and they actually integrate pretty effortlessly. Most Poles and Eastern Europeans in Germany are still first generation though, with the partial exception of some young Russians. Second generation is mostly guest worker immigration. It's true that most of Poles are better integrated in one generation than Turkish or even some Italian migrants are in 3, hence the query on source country. | ||
MoltkeWarding
5195 Posts
this delves into empirics in germany which i have 0 idea about. however, the chinese immigrant scenario is largely about successful integration in the u.s. yes, chinatowns and chinese restaurants exist, but they are mostly owned by integrated businesspersons but employ recent immigrants. and obviously germans have integrated successfully into the u.s. so have a variety of other european cultures, and this is within a history that is not short on racial conflict. Germans largely immigrated to America from the 1860s to c. 1890, and probably attained WASP status around 1950 or so. Today they are indistinguishable physically through acclimatisation and intermarriage, but this was hardly always the case, and they have changed American culture in many ways for the better (music) and other ways for the worse (overuse of passive tense and phrasal nouns in modern English), but in the short term most were expendable squareheads who were very much cultural outsiders in the country where they settled. The matter is integration transforms things both ways. If you are indifferent to where those transformations may lead you, then surely you will still have some kind of culture regardless of who you let in, but if that is the case, just as you triumphantly exalt over the disappearance of Anglo-Saxon genteel America today, do not wonder if tomorrow those who follow shall ignore all your worries and hopes for the future of your country, and the visions you had entertained for its future. | ||
Fi0na
0 Posts
On November 19 2014 03:54 Nyxisto wrote: This is actually untrue. The only group that has traditionally had problems with integration are Turkish immigrants, which are the largest group of immigrants but they're very far from being the majority. Also there's very little Turkish immigration today. The overwhelming majority of new immigrants stems from Eastern Europe and they actually integrate pretty effortlessly. I was of the opinion that there is a huge influx especially from Spain, as their economy is in shambles and Germany even appears to advertise to young people there. There might be quite the difference between eastern and western Germany though, I imagine there far more immigrants from Eastern Europe in the eastern part and a lot more people from the south/west in the western part. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
Regarding East and West, I'm not 100% sure but I think immigration to the West was pretty much always higher because of more favourable working conditions and the general better condition of West Germany. That might have turned around though because the former GDR states are catching up pretty fast. | ||
andrewlt
United States7675 Posts
On November 18 2014 06:26 Aveng3r wrote: wait what? they are super gung ho about working hard but yet they dont start working until 4pm each day? I dont get your point It is only the appearance of working hard. They come to work on time every morning but waste time doing nothing productive all day. They leave work late to keep up appearances as well. And since Japan is very traditional, everybody just puts up with the farce. Nobody is willing to rock the boat. On November 19 2014 02:07 Simberto wrote: Yeah, i don't get the whole "we need more fertility" thing that is going on here. Yes, we do have an aging population in germany. That is not ideal. But the solution is much simpler: Globally, the human population is still growing greatly. There are lots of countries with very high fertility rates and a low(er than german) standards of living. If we need young people, why not just let some of the young people from those countries come to germany? They get to have a western standard of living, we get to have more young people to pay for pensions etc... Everyone wins. It isn't the job of first world countries to compensate for the overpopulation of third world countries. Comments from other posters here also suggest that Germany has a harder time integrating non-European immigrants vis a vis the US. | ||
Simberto
Germany11044 Posts
Yes, integration is obviously the key problem here, and the point that makes the whole thing be harder than it seems. This is also a problem that i utterly don't understand, because i just cannot comprehend how someone could not like freedom and democracy (which are actually the main points in my opinion, i don't really care if someone likes to go to church or to a mosque or none at all, and i am not even that interested in what language people speak, as long as there is a common language people can communicate in.) | ||
WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On November 19 2014 01:50 MoltkeWarding wrote: Your implication was that French policy making since the 19th century had been trying to raise birth rates, but there had only been one drastic upward swing in that rate in the last century and a half. Within a few years, French population will return to the same flat line that she had experienced during the 19th century (with the help of a continual influx of fertile African migrants, otherwise it will probably decline). Germany's population cohorts will likely continue shrinking at one-third per generation, but the reasons for that are rather particular to German society. As for the negotiation between personal and professional life, that is a marginal factor in a person's decision to have children today, because those moral milestones were crossed by a generation prior to our own. There is no reason to think that it would be more effective than any other kind of spending, because the entire post-natal care idea is merely shifting resources around and replacing one kind of incentive with another. On the balance, I don't see why we should promote absentee parenthood more than engaged parenthood either, but saying it will net better baby output is a certain way to appease a distinct protest lobby. Only the tenor of that argument is serving an agenda of its own, and it's not the agenda of childbearing fertility. Really I don't know what you're talking about. You really think a policy can lead to a spike or a drastic change in something as complicated as fertility. The only thing a policy can do is create a frame and watch trends evolve. France's policy did not lead to drastic change (which is obvious), it leads to slow change in mentalities and famillies morals to a point where having a child was both considered as a benefice to the society and where famillies do not have to sacrifice too much to educate this child, to a point where the population is fertile enough to reproduce itself (basically our situation today). Also, there are plenty of stats on fertility of immigrants and child of immigrants vs fertility of "french" women (since X generations), and the fertility rate is almost equal. So our fertility is not directly linked to our immigration. And I repeat: working is, in itself, a value in our society, and that if you don't permit both working and parenting without choosing one of the other, then you will have people who sacrifice one for the other, it's pretty simple. Again, I want to make it clear, I don't care that Germany's fertility is so low, and I don't think it's the main problem Germany has, I'm just stated a simple fact, and that is that policies influence fertility. | ||
Hryul
Austria2609 Posts
On November 19 2014 08:15 Simberto wrote: No, that might not be their job, but if there are two population problems, one with too many births, and one with too few, and you can move people between the two places with relative ease, i don't see why that shouldn't be the first thing to do to approach the whole situation, as opposed to trying to make people have more children here and less children there. because it doesn't solve any problems but postpones it to (much) later. birth rates are actually falling across all regions except black africa and Afghanistan. This isn't to be confused with population, because the population will still rise even after birth rates drop below 2.0 because of improved medical care. Even Iran has falling birth rates. I have seen a funny statistic that links birth rates with TV consumption and they claimed families shown on TV tend to have less children because children on sets suck. This in return influences the women. Generally I think though that higher living standard results in lower birth rates. So you either drain people from very uneducated countries or you just export your problems. | ||
Velr
Switzerland10439 Posts
Maybe in her late twenties but even that feels strange and kinda "early". I am not talking about "career" women here... The only ones that nowadays seem to get children before 25 are allready in our social system and not exactly what you call productive or it was an "accident" and she decided to keep it. Same with marriage... Marrying before 25 (which i would still call early), are you nuts? I even have a friend that found his now Woman at the Age of 21... At the Age of 25 he told me: "You know, i actually would have liked to have found my girl a bit later." Despite him being happy with her now for over 9 years... | ||
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