Its the same trap the usa has been in since about 2000.
A trap that will inevitably lead to a global crash far worse then 2008.
hmm nvm the vid,its bad in the end so deleted it.
Forum Index > Closed |
Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
Its the same trap the usa has been in since about 2000. A trap that will inevitably lead to a global crash far worse then 2008. hmm nvm the vid,its bad in the end so deleted it. | ||
AutoEngineer
United States97 Posts
I think Abe will need to postpone the tax raise in October 2015, a decision he has to make soon. If he does decide to postpone this, then Abenomics will be a complete failure. So there are two choices: either stick with Abenomics if this is thought to be a good long term economic plan or shift away from Abenomics. It's a tough choice and I think Abe will call elections early and postpone the October 2015 tax raise so that he can gain more political support. I think Germany may fall into the same recession trend unless Germany's car exports start to do better. Right now, German car sales are at an unprecedented low, falling unexpectedly this year. Germany makes more cars in Germany than it does overseas, so falling German car sales is not good news. For Japan, it's a mixed story. Most Japanese cars are made in overseas countries like Thailand, so car exports are not really a problem for them. Japan's problem is a problem of domestic demand, having the most aged population in the world (currently >25% of Japanese are over 65 years old) and a conservative mindset which is xenophobic and anti-immigration. Clearly, if Japan opens its borders to immigration, it would help stem the rapid population decline and boost domestic demand. Now I'm not one of those pro-multiculturalists, but Japan is by far the most xenophobic nation. UPDATE: The April-June GDP figures has been re-adjusted to -7.3%, worse than the -7.1% initially estimated. | ||
Skilledblob
Germany3392 Posts
if a german party would come out and say "we want higher inflation" the outcry in the media and among voters would be huge. and really that article asks members of a hedge fund what germany should do to "fix" our economy and the first thing you hear is loan more money, yea who would have thought they would say that. germany has always had close trade relation ships with Russia for decades. The new embargoes are the only reason the numbers are this low. | ||
parkufarku
882 Posts
(1) the people hardly rely on internet to buy things. it's all B&M for them, which allows local shops to charge rip-off prices (i lived near one) (2) there is no laws against housing in your own shop, so most shopowners don't lose rent for operating their business (since its their home rent). This means if the items are overpriced, owners can afford to not lower it | ||
semantics
10040 Posts
On November 15 2014 18:22 Snotling wrote: All economies have to develop beyond growth anyway at some point, its not like we live in a limitless system. That's not how stocks and shareholders think companies work. | ||
CorsairHero
Canada9487 Posts
looks like QE isn't working as intended? | ||
Bluejava
Sweden135 Posts
| ||
5unrise
New Zealand646 Posts
On November 17 2014 09:38 AutoEngineer wrote: Wow, the Japanese economy just contracted 1.6%, way off expectations for a 2.1% growth. Technically speaking, the Japanese economy is in a recession, having contracted 7.1% in the 2nd quarter and now 1.6% in the 3rd quarter. I calculated the official GDP figure for Japan to be around $4.5 trillion USD, from its peak level of $5.9 trillion USD a few years ago. So the Japanese economy has lost $1.4 trillion USD in the past few years. I think Abe will need to postpone the tax raise in October 2015, a decision he has to make soon. If he does decide to postpone this, then Abenomics will be a complete failure. So there are two choices: either stick with Abenomics if this is thought to be a good long term economic plan or shift away from Abenomics. It's a tough choice and I think Abe will call elections early and postpone the October 2015 tax raise so that he can gain more political support. I think Germany may fall into the same recession trend unless Germany's car exports start to do better. Right now, German car sales are at an unprecedented low, falling unexpectedly this year. Germany makes more cars in Germany than it does overseas, so falling German car sales is not good news. For Japan, it's a mixed story. Most Japanese cars are made in overseas countries like Thailand, so car exports are not really a problem for them. Japan's problem is a problem of domestic demand, having the most aged population in the world (currently >25% of Japanese are over 65 years old) and a conservative mindset which is xenophobic and anti-immigration. Clearly, if Japan opens its borders to immigration, it would help stem the rapid population decline and boost domestic demand. Now I'm not one of those pro-multiculturalists, but Japan is by far the most xenophobic nation. UPDATE: The April-June GDP figures has been re-adjusted to -7.3%, worse than the -7.1% initially estimated. I can agree with most of your qualitative conclusions, although using motor vehicles as a proxy seems a bit of a stretch. There are other issues with your analysis. Your figures are a bit misleading, given how you have worded it. The contraction was 1.8% in the June quarter and 0.4% in the September quarter, after seasonal adjustments. The cumulative contraction over the two quarters was about 2.3%. You gave an annualised figure for both quarters - which is how much the economy would contract if this negative growth rate was carried forward for an entire year, which is unlikely (and has not yet happened). Your calculation for Japanese GDP using USD is also highly questionable. The Japanese yen has been weakening against all major currencies (especially the USD) in the last two years, owing to large-scale quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the withdrawal of unconventional stimulus by the US Federal Reserve. This means that the change in Japanese GDP in nominal USD terms do not accurately reflect growth in real output in the economy - in fact it understates it. The economy has grown since the end of the 2009 recession, and has certainly not lost 20% of its output. You need to strip out the exchange rate effect, so best to do the comparison in yen terms. | ||
coverpunch
United States2093 Posts
On November 17 2014 09:38 AutoEngineer wrote: Wow, the Japanese economy just contracted 1.6%, way off expectations for a 2.1% growth. Technically speaking, the Japanese economy is in a recession, having contracted 7.1% in the 2nd quarter and now 1.6% in the 3rd quarter. I calculated the official GDP figure for Japan to be around $4.5 trillion USD, from its peak level of $5.9 trillion USD a few years ago. So the Japanese economy has lost $1.4 trillion USD in the past few years. I think Abe will need to postpone the tax raise in October 2015, a decision he has to make soon. If he does decide to postpone this, then Abenomics will be a complete failure. So there are two choices: either stick with Abenomics if this is thought to be a good long term economic plan or shift away from Abenomics. It's a tough choice and I think Abe will call elections early and postpone the October 2015 tax raise so that he can gain more political support. I think Germany may fall into the same recession trend unless Germany's car exports start to do better. Right now, German car sales are at an unprecedented low, falling unexpectedly this year. Germany makes more cars in Germany than it does overseas, so falling German car sales is not good news. For Japan, it's a mixed story. Most Japanese cars are made in overseas countries like Thailand, so car exports are not really a problem for them. Japan's problem is a problem of domestic demand, having the most aged population in the world (currently >25% of Japanese are over 65 years old) and a conservative mindset which is xenophobic and anti-immigration. Clearly, if Japan opens its borders to immigration, it would help stem the rapid population decline and boost domestic demand. Now I'm not one of those pro-multiculturalists, but Japan is by far the most xenophobic nation. UPDATE: The April-June GDP figures has been re-adjusted to -7.3%, worse than the -7.1% initially estimated. You need to emphasize that these are annualized numbers, so they're all multiplied by 4 from the single-quarter data. The Japanese economy contracted 0.4% in the 3rd quarter, annualized to 1.6%. You also don't note the causes, which were a huge drop in housing (24%) and a big drop in investment spending (0.9%), even though the fact that money markets might be freezing over could explain the BOJ's recent decision to extend its own QE in a big way. Foreigners account for 1.54% of the population so "xenophobia" doesn't really make a big difference in terms of economic impact. By contrast, foreign-born workers account for about 13% of the US population and even then people rarely say they are a substantial reason behind whether the US economy is doing well or badly. Women leaking out of the work force and aging population are Japan's real demographic problems - it's bad everywhere in the OECD but worse in Japan. Whether they want to "fix" it with an influx of young foreign people is a social and political question more than an economic one. Do you have a source on Japan being the most "xenophobic" nation? I looked up statistics and couldn't find a solid source comparing Japan to the EU, but MIPEX has South Korea ranked with Italy, above the big three of Germany, the UK, and France (listed by rank), and Korea also has only 2% foreign-born population. Surely Japan would do better than central and eastern Europe, which are actively hostile to immigration and do virtually nothing to accommodate foreigners. It is worth noting that the euro and yen have lost about 10% of their value this year compared to the dollar. This article lasted a lot longer than your anti-Japan scaremongering usually does, OP. Congrats. | ||
Clonester
Germany2808 Posts
Why? We saw what high debts, quantitave instruments by the central banks and higher then 2% inflation have brought some other nations or ourselfs earlier. While the US tends to shut down the gouvernment, europeen nations who could only watch how they have to pay more and more for the debts and only shouting for Mario Draghi, german people tend to dislike these things. If you can create higher economic stimulus via debts and quantiative instruments, the germans would still disvote you and not elect you. Gouvernments who took larger debts to gain room for reforms and investments failed heavily at the next elections, while others, who did nothing during the 4 years gained even more support. It is how it works, people dont like high debts and the feeling of weak currencies here, they dont want someone in the central bank, who is know as Ben B., the helicopter dropper. This leads to the fact, that the people do accept lower growrates, while having lower inflation and possible lower debts. It has its reason why these speaks about "why small deflation can be good" or "do we need economic growth anymore?" are heavily present at Germany. Not to speak about the problem, that national debts know only one way, being higher and higher, while the economic has no been better after a large period of nation collection of debts. And when certain hedgefonds manager tell someone to take more debts, this becomes funny because i know who will give these money. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
| ||
Velr
Switzerland10439 Posts
People like to save up and they don't like credit or taking much risk... At least traditionally. If this is good or bad is an entirely diffrent topic . | ||
WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On November 17 2014 19:01 Clonester wrote: While most nations have debts out of control, germany stands there with its "black zero", "schwarze Null" or whatever you wanna call it. Why? We saw what high debts, quantitave instruments by the central banks and higher then 2% inflation have brought some other nations or ourselfs earlier. While the US tends to shut down the gouvernment, europeen nations who could only watch how they have to pay more and more for the debts and only shouting for Mario Draghi, german people tend to dislike these things. If you can create higher economic stimulus via debts and quantiative instruments, the germans would still disvote you and not elect you. Gouvernments who took larger debts to gain room for reforms and investments failed heavily at the next elections, while others, who did nothing during the 4 years gained even more support. It is how it works, people dont like high debts and the feeling of weak currencies here, they dont want someone in the central bank, who is know as Ben B., the helicopter dropper. This leads to the fact, that the people do accept lower growrates, while having lower inflation and possible lower debts. It has its reason why these speaks about "why small deflation can be good" or "do we need economic growth anymore?" are heavily present at Germany. Not to speak about the problem, that national debts know only one way, being higher and higher, while the economic has no been better after a large period of nation collection of debts. And when certain hedgefonds manager tell someone to take more debts, this becomes funny because i know who will give these money. This black zero is a stupid strategy that is only possible because Germany is in a currency area with France, Italy, Greece, etc. This debate is not about growth but about employment ; 10 % average unemployment in europe is not sustainable in this current system. The problem is that growth is often time the solution against high employment (you have 10 % of the labor factor that is unused, it is obvious that you need an increase in production and consumption to use that excess factor). High debts never had any bad impact : in 1950, most debt in europe were above 100 % of GDP, but the high inflation (around 5%) permitted the government to erase this debt in a decade or so. Inflation higher than 2 % never brought anything bad. If you are talking about the hyper inflation, it's set at more than 50 % inflation a month, far from the 5% a year we've seen during the thirty glorious. The 2% target has nothing to do with the bad possible impact of inflation it itself, but with the belief that an inflation higher than 2% has no impact on employment. On November 17 2014 22:37 Velr wrote: Imho its more a cultural thing in the german speaking areas of europe. People like to save up and they don't like credit or taking much risk... At least traditionally. If this is good or bad is an entirely diffrent topic . Savings are high in France too, and in many european countries. But people =/= government. There are obvious problems that rise up when people manage a state like a household. | ||
xpldngmn
Austria264 Posts
| ||
Clonester
Germany2808 Posts
On November 17 2014 23:57 WhiteDog wrote: Show nested quote + On November 17 2014 19:01 Clonester wrote: While most nations have debts out of control, germany stands there with its "black zero", "schwarze Null" or whatever you wanna call it. Why? We saw what high debts, quantitave instruments by the central banks and higher then 2% inflation have brought some other nations or ourselfs earlier. While the US tends to shut down the gouvernment, europeen nations who could only watch how they have to pay more and more for the debts and only shouting for Mario Draghi, german people tend to dislike these things. If you can create higher economic stimulus via debts and quantiative instruments, the germans would still disvote you and not elect you. Gouvernments who took larger debts to gain room for reforms and investments failed heavily at the next elections, while others, who did nothing during the 4 years gained even more support. It is how it works, people dont like high debts and the feeling of weak currencies here, they dont want someone in the central bank, who is know as Ben B., the helicopter dropper. This leads to the fact, that the people do accept lower growrates, while having lower inflation and possible lower debts. It has its reason why these speaks about "why small deflation can be good" or "do we need economic growth anymore?" are heavily present at Germany. Not to speak about the problem, that national debts know only one way, being higher and higher, while the economic has no been better after a large period of nation collection of debts. And when certain hedgefonds manager tell someone to take more debts, this becomes funny because i know who will give these money. This black zero is a stupid strategy that is only possible because Germany is in a currency area with France, Italy, Greece, etc. This debate is not about growth but about employment ; 10 % average unemployment in europe is not sustainable in this current system. The problem is that growth is often time the solution against high employment (you have 10 % of the labor factor that is unused, it is obvious that you need an increase in production and consumption to use that excess factor). High debts never had any bad impact : in 1950, most debt in europe were above 100 % of GDP, but the high inflation (around 5%) permitted the government to erase this debt in a decade or so. Inflation higher than 2 % never brought anything bad. If you are talking about the hyper inflation, it's set at more than 50 % inflation a month, far from the 5% a year we've seen during the thirty glorious. The 2% target has nothing to do with the bad possible impact of inflation it itself, but with the belief that an inflation higher than 2% has no impact on employment. Show nested quote + On November 17 2014 22:37 Velr wrote: Imho its more a cultural thing in the german speaking areas of europe. People like to save up and they don't like credit or taking much risk... At least traditionally. If this is good or bad is an entirely diffrent topic . Savings are high in France too, and in many european countries. But people =/= government. There are obvious problems that rise up when people manage a state like a household. And now we come to a point of any discussion, which is just to big for a forum: You mention the phase of "financial repression" in Anglo-Saxon Countrys, especially in Greater Britain. The forced the Inflation up to 5%, forbidded higher interestrates then 5% and watched how their GDP percentage debt gone down fast while also the savings of the people went smaller and smaller. Thus in phase where bretton woods were still in place, a whole different world wide currency system to the system of viable currencies we have since bretton woods. And we saw where the phase of financial repression, higher inflation and bretton woods lead: Implosion of bretton woods. And you have to concider another things: The EZB is different from the FED: While the FED has to concider unemployment and currency stability, the EZB is not allowed to concider unemployment, the EZB has only one duty, to optain a stable currency in the 2% inflation goal. And another thing is, that german unemploymend is below 7%, a historical value since reunification. And Europe is not the US, it is political suicide in Germany to use debts to help the other europeen nations( at least if we talk about the billions which would be needed to help spain, france and italy ) while nobody helped during the harsh times Germany had till 2006, where everybody talked about Germany as the sick man of europe and all the partners did were pointing with the finger. Thus leads the politicians to do what they do. At the end, they want to be reelectet and you will not be reelectet, if you debt the shit out. And a last note: While the federal Gouvernment takes no debts this year (something i dont like because look at our joke of an army for example ) the German States and the German Citys still take high debts every year. Yes they all are forbidden to use debts after 2020 ( "Schuldenbremse" ) but I dont think this will ever happen. The Cities and States just need alot of debts to optain their work they have to do due to the Grundgesetz. | ||
andrewlt
United States7675 Posts
| ||
DrCooper
Germany261 Posts
"The wacky economics of Germany’s parallel universe" | ||
m4ini
4215 Posts
And a last note: While the federal Gouvernment takes no debts this year (something i dont like because look at our joke of an army for example ) And how are these two things related (debt and army)? The Bundeswehr has enough funding (in fact, they basically "give money back", nothing would change with more funding. In fact, the BW paid 2.6 billion euros back to the "Finanzministerium". Even with all the money in the world, the BW wouldn't change in size. Because the politicians don't want a huge standing army. | ||
WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On November 18 2014 02:33 Clonester wrote: Show nested quote + On November 17 2014 23:57 WhiteDog wrote: On November 17 2014 19:01 Clonester wrote: While most nations have debts out of control, germany stands there with its "black zero", "schwarze Null" or whatever you wanna call it. Why? We saw what high debts, quantitave instruments by the central banks and higher then 2% inflation have brought some other nations or ourselfs earlier. While the US tends to shut down the gouvernment, europeen nations who could only watch how they have to pay more and more for the debts and only shouting for Mario Draghi, german people tend to dislike these things. If you can create higher economic stimulus via debts and quantiative instruments, the germans would still disvote you and not elect you. Gouvernments who took larger debts to gain room for reforms and investments failed heavily at the next elections, while others, who did nothing during the 4 years gained even more support. It is how it works, people dont like high debts and the feeling of weak currencies here, they dont want someone in the central bank, who is know as Ben B., the helicopter dropper. This leads to the fact, that the people do accept lower growrates, while having lower inflation and possible lower debts. It has its reason why these speaks about "why small deflation can be good" or "do we need economic growth anymore?" are heavily present at Germany. Not to speak about the problem, that national debts know only one way, being higher and higher, while the economic has no been better after a large period of nation collection of debts. And when certain hedgefonds manager tell someone to take more debts, this becomes funny because i know who will give these money. This black zero is a stupid strategy that is only possible because Germany is in a currency area with France, Italy, Greece, etc. This debate is not about growth but about employment ; 10 % average unemployment in europe is not sustainable in this current system. The problem is that growth is often time the solution against high employment (you have 10 % of the labor factor that is unused, it is obvious that you need an increase in production and consumption to use that excess factor). High debts never had any bad impact : in 1950, most debt in europe were above 100 % of GDP, but the high inflation (around 5%) permitted the government to erase this debt in a decade or so. Inflation higher than 2 % never brought anything bad. If you are talking about the hyper inflation, it's set at more than 50 % inflation a month, far from the 5% a year we've seen during the thirty glorious. The 2% target has nothing to do with the bad possible impact of inflation it itself, but with the belief that an inflation higher than 2% has no impact on employment. On November 17 2014 22:37 Velr wrote: Imho its more a cultural thing in the german speaking areas of europe. People like to save up and they don't like credit or taking much risk... At least traditionally. If this is good or bad is an entirely diffrent topic . Savings are high in France too, and in many european countries. But people =/= government. There are obvious problems that rise up when people manage a state like a household. And now we come to a point of any discussion, which is just to big for a forum: You mention the phase of "financial repression" in Anglo-Saxon Countrys, especially in Greater Britain. The forced the Inflation up to 5%, forbidded higher interestrates then 5% and watched how their GDP percentage debt gone down fast while also the savings of the people went smaller and smaller. Thus in phase where bretton woods were still in place, a whole different world wide currency system to the system of viable currencies we have since bretton woods. And we saw where the phase of financial repression, higher inflation and bretton woods lead: Implosion of bretton woods. And you have to concider another things: The EZB is different from the FED: While the FED has to concider unemployment and currency stability, the EZB is not allowed to concider unemployment, the EZB has only one duty, to optain a stable currency in the 2% inflation goal. And another thing is, that german unemploymend is below 7%, a historical value since reunification. And Europe is not the US, it is political suicide in Germany to use debts to help the other europeen nations( at least if we talk about the billions which would be needed to help spain, france and italy ) while nobody helped during the harsh times Germany had till 2006, where everybody talked about Germany as the sick man of europe and all the partners did were pointing with the finger. Thus leads the politicians to do what they do. At the end, they want to be reelectet and you will not be reelectet, if you debt the shit out. And a last note: While the federal Gouvernment takes no debts this year (something i dont like because look at our joke of an army for example ) the German States and the German Citys still take high debts every year. Yes they all are forbidden to use debts after 2020 ( "Schuldenbremse" ) but I dont think this will ever happen. The Cities and States just need alot of debts to optain their work they have to do due to the Grundgesetz. What's a financial repression ? And when did I mention it ? I don't understand. Bretton Woods is out of topic, it's not a floating monetary system, it was doomed, just like the EURO is doomed. I know that the ECB does not care about employment, it's one of the few reasons why it suck. German unemployment is below 7% because germany is a free rider that profit from (and at) its partner spending (and expense). The average unemployment in the euro zone is at + than 10 %... The growth in germany is low because there is no demand anymore : the developing countries cannot (and will never) offer a sufficient substitution to the european demand because, for various reasons, a country usually trade largely with its direct regional partners. | ||
Aveng3r
United States2411 Posts
On November 18 2014 03:56 andrewlt wrote: Japan has severe cultural issues that Germany doesn't have. There, you are considered lazy and not a team player if you don't work a lot of overtime hours. They are paid accordingly. If you don't work overtime, you'll have a hard time making ends meet. In response, the standard 9-5 office worker in Japan does shit all day. They don't start doing anything productive until 4 pm so they have to work overtime. wait what? they are super gung ho about working hard but yet they dont start working until 4pm each day? I dont get your point | ||
| ||
Next event in 5h 25m
[ Submit Event ] |
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Dota 2 League of Legends Counter-Strike Super Smash Bros Heroes of the Storm Other Games Organizations Other Games StarCraft 2 Other Games StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War
StarCraft 2 • Berry_CruncH206 StarCraft: Brood War• practicex 26 • Gussbus • Laughngamez YouTube • AfreecaTV YouTube • aXEnki • Poblha • intothetv • Migwel • Kozan • IndyKCrew • LaughNgamez Trovo League of Legends Other Games |
Replay Cast
GSL Code S
Maru vs soO
Cure vs ByuN
World Team League
OSC
Online Event
World Team League
SC2's Safe House
Sparkling Tuna Cup
World Team League
SC2's Safe House
[ Show More ] ESL Open Cup
ESL Open Cup
ESL Open Cup
Code For Giants Cup
|
|