10 of us left.
we lose 2 town to lynches/modkills
we lose 2 town to the SK and the mafia.
that gives us 6 left
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 22:57 GMT
#2581
On August 27 2014 07:56 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On August 27 2014 07:56 KelsierSC wrote: On August 27 2014 07:55 Xatalos wrote: But yeah... The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and Onegu is modkilled + flips town and we lose 2 more during the night. That would leave us with only 2 remaining town and basically a certain loss. Especially if both the Masons die, it's just hopeless. Although in that situation SK might be aiming at scum since scum would have the advantage in that situation. We'd still be in dire straits. we would have 3 town in that situation I believe. 5 - 3 = 2? 10 of us left. we lose 2 town to lynches/modkills we lose 2 town to the SK and the mafia. that gives us 6 left | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
August 26 2014 22:58 GMT
#2582
On August 27 2014 07:55 turtlevine wrote: If Onegu makes a last-minute return to thread to avoid getting modkilled, I vow to vote him on the spot and prevent him from living out this day. Actually planned on posting this and forgot And I don't think I will ever seen Vayne lurk to a modkill? | ||
Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
August 26 2014 22:58 GMT
#2583
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 22:58 GMT
#2584
On August 27 2014 07:57 yamato77 wrote: How do you guys know how many mafia there are? 3 mafia for a balanced set up with this many players. 4 mafia and a GF would probably be unfair | ||
Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
August 26 2014 22:59 GMT
#2585
On August 27 2014 07:57 KelsierSC wrote: Show nested quote + On August 27 2014 07:56 Xatalos wrote: On August 27 2014 07:56 KelsierSC wrote: On August 27 2014 07:55 Xatalos wrote: But yeah... The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and Onegu is modkilled + flips town and we lose 2 more during the night. That would leave us with only 2 remaining town and basically a certain loss. Especially if both the Masons die, it's just hopeless. Although in that situation SK might be aiming at scum since scum would have the advantage in that situation. We'd still be in dire straits. we would have 3 town in that situation I believe. 5 - 3 = 2? 10 of us left. we lose 2 town to lynches/modkills we lose 2 town to the SK and the mafia. that gives us 6 left Oh yeah true I miscounted how many were left atm. | ||
Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
August 26 2014 23:00 GMT
#2586
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
August 26 2014 23:01 GMT
#2587
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yamato77
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:01 GMT
#2588
On August 27 2014 07:52 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On August 27 2014 07:51 yamato77 wrote: LYNCH HAPA I GIVE YOU 100% SEAL OF CERTAINTY HE IS NOT TOWN Can you explain more? His whole posting spree yesterday was a large attempt at getting discussion moved away from lynching him. He played the WIFOM game and attempted to downplay the suspicion on him as a waste of time. Yet his contributions to the scumhunting he so valiantly called for have been weak at best. He basically ignored everything that everyone has said about VA and his lynch in that time frame and just reiterated his "case". Never believe a strong town player when they tell you they are just playing badly. | ||
VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
August 26 2014 23:02 GMT
#2589
plz read my filter next time said I had a long work day today be there in an hour. | ||
KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:03 GMT
#2590
But if he does flip town we will be in a position with 6 players left with 3 town, 1 kinda confirmed town (yam) if we lynch onegu then we are 7 players left with 4 town, 1 kinda confirmed. I need to do more math on that but I think the second scenario is better for town. | ||
Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
August 26 2014 23:04 GMT
#2591
On August 27 2014 08:01 yamato77 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 27 2014 07:52 Xatalos wrote: On August 27 2014 07:51 yamato77 wrote: LYNCH HAPA I GIVE YOU 100% SEAL OF CERTAINTY HE IS NOT TOWN Can you explain more? His whole posting spree yesterday was a large attempt at getting discussion moved away from lynching him. He played the WIFOM game and attempted to downplay the suspicion on him as a waste of time. Yet his contributions to the scumhunting he so valiantly called for have been weak at best. He basically ignored everything that everyone has said about VA and his lynch in that time frame and just reiterated his "case". Never believe a strong town player when they tell you they are just playing badly. Hmm... Actually it's a valid point that it feels weird for someone like Hapa to downplay himself as town. Or to even apparently not be very interested in solving the game in the first place. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:04 GMT
#2592
Ugh. I am confident Damdred is town. I feel less confident about WoS/Kels/Xat/VA but I have reasons to think they are town. Onegu basically has to be mafia. And Hapa is certainly not town. That leaves me with 1 incorrect read. Who is it? | ||
Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
August 26 2014 23:06 GMT
#2593
On August 27 2014 08:03 KelsierSC wrote: That is why I am reluctant to lynch Hapa, I understand that he is not playing town. A lot of people think he is the SK. But if he does flip town we will be in a position with 6 players left with 3 town, 1 kinda confirmed town (yam) if we lynch onegu then we are 7 players left with 4 town, 1 kinda confirmed. I need to do more math on that but I think the second scenario is better for town. Tbh if we mislynch today I think we lose either way (most likely) since we'd be down to around even numbers with scum+SK and scum especially would have a major advantage in that situation. I've been in that situation a lot in SC2 Mafia (the setups there generally always contain 3 Mafia + 1 SK) and I think like 95% of the time town loses. | ||
KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:08 GMT
#2594
On August 27 2014 07:53 Damdred wrote: Except vayne hasn't voted and could get mod killed himself. You both think VA claim is probably right. but you want to kill him anyway when we think we have the sk dead to rights anyway? Yeaaaaa maybe both of you are mafia together since all a sudden you guys seem the best of pals when kel said he'd want to do the opposite of xata maybe the kel wagon has a shot You need to read my analysis on why I thought a VA lynch might work even if he is town ( the analysis was based on faulty logic though) I still think he is real and now I will def not lynch him. I don't think at any point in that I was best of pals with Xat, I was basically analysing to the thread. I still think Xat is scummy. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:08 GMT
#2595
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Damdred
15669 Posts
August 26 2014 23:09 GMT
#2596
I think hapa isn't town so obviously that's where i am | ||
KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:12 GMT
#2597
On August 27 2014 08:06 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On August 27 2014 08:03 KelsierSC wrote: That is why I am reluctant to lynch Hapa, I understand that he is not playing town. A lot of people think he is the SK. But if he does flip town we will be in a position with 6 players left with 3 town, 1 kinda confirmed town (yam) if we lynch onegu then we are 7 players left with 4 town, 1 kinda confirmed. I need to do more math on that but I think the second scenario is better for town. Tbh if we mislynch today I think we lose either way (most likely) since we'd be down to around even numbers with scum+SK and scum especially would have a major advantage in that situation. I've been in that situation a lot in SC2 Mafia (the setups there generally always contain 3 Mafia + 1 SK) and I think like 95% of the time town loses. Alright so if we get to this 7.and it turned out onegu was town. Hapa,VA,Kel,Yam,Xat,Dam,WoS VA will have his check and could give us 3 confirmed town or a scum. | ||
KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:14 GMT
#2598
On August 27 2014 08:09 Damdred wrote: I know it is a new concept.... instead of trying to math your way to a win and clutter the thread actually play the game and kill the one likely to flip red or flip sk. I think hapa isn't town so obviously that's where i am I am playing the game, I am figuring out the best lynch. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:14 GMT
#2599
IT'S USELESS | ||
KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:14 GMT
#2600
On August 27 2014 08:14 yamato77 wrote: STOP THE STUPID THEORYCRAFT IT'S USELESS no it is useful to me. | ||
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