Ro16: Group A Preview
Countdown:
by Darkhorse
As if there hasn't been enough Starcraft II action coming out of southern California these past few days, WCS America kicks off its Round of 16 this week in ESL's new American studio. This week starts with Group A as last season's finalist Oz looks to get back to his place at the top of the league against tough competition in Pigbaby, Heart, and Xigua.
Pigbaby is a name that still may be unfamiliar to a lot of people, and for good reason. Back in Korea, Pigbaby played for Jin Air Green Wings, but was seldom used in Proleague and was not regarded as a particularly good player. He was generally a Code A fixture, with the exception of a single season stint in Code S in last year's season 3, where he was knocked out in the Ro32 with losses to Soulkey and PartinG. While he can hardly be blamed for losing to such stiff competition, he has since left Jin Air after only being used twice this SPL season to try his luck in WCS America.
To give you a hint of just how not visible Pigbaby has been to the general public over the past months, Pigbaby has played four offline matches since last October: a first round loss in the Code A qualifiers and three games in SPL including one in the preseason. However, the teamless Protoss tore through the ladder wildcard qualifier for WCS America back in April, and he managed to defeat another Protoss with a cheesy reputation in Has in Challenger to advance to Premier League. Right away he proved that he was forced to be reckoned with (RottiBoard be praised) by winning his Ro32 group over some solid opponents. He started by 2-0'ing a semifinalist from last season in Revival and then followed it up with a win over Huk in the winner's match.
Pigbaby proved himself to be more than capable of getting out of the Ro32, but this group will be slightly different. First off all, he will have to play a Terran named Heart, although his win over Heart's teammate Ryung in the qualifier may give him some confidence and insight there. Beyond that, he has to look at Oz and the Chinese Zerg player XiGua. Overall, the lineup of this group seems perhaps slightly easier than it was for Pigbaby's Ro32 group, but he is going to have a tough time if he underestimates any of these opponents.
As mentioned above, Pigbaby's first opponent will be a familiar face in WCS America, Ax.Heart. Heart is now in his fourth season in Premier League in the region, and he will be looking to recapture some of the success that he had in last year's Season 3, where he took top 8. Heart has been nothing if not solid over these past two season's of Premier League, with Ro32 wins over incredible players like Jaedong and Scarlett, and you get the sense that Heart is coming back around to top form as he makes a push for the Ro8. He was at MLG this past weekend (although you might not know it seeing as none of his games were streamed) so it will be interesting to see if he will be able to bounce back from a disappointing (and grueling) open bracket performance to advance in WCS America.
Heart is a player that is often overlooked in WCS America (and in general) but his TvZ has looked world class in compared to the rest of the region. While his other matchups haven't been bad, they just don't seem to be as impressive as his TvZ. With that as context, I imagine Heart wouldn't mind trading places with his teammate Alicia to fight an all Zerg group B, but alas, he is stuck with this one. Pigbaby and Oz are both capable in PvT, and Oz is one of the two players who knocked Heart out of last season's Ro16. XiGua is certainly a winnable matchup for Heart, but the roach heavy style of the Chinese Zergs seems to give Heart more trouble than standard zergling and baneling play, as he has lost twice to Hyun in WCS this year while beating Zergs who play a more standard style. Overall, I wouldn't call Heart the favorite in this group, but I do think he has a got shot at giving us our first Terran in the Ro8.
iG.XiGua is one of two Chinese Zergs who are really making their presence felt in WCS America. Last season, he showed solid ZvP to advance to the Ro16 by beating Top and upsetting Liquid`HerO with solid play. Although he was beaten by Polt and CranK in the previous Ro16, XiGua once again proved that he belongs in Premier League by winning his Ro32 group this season by conquering Arthur and Sen. By the looks of things, we should start getting used to seeing XiGua in the offline portion of the tournament, and it will be interesting to see if he can push even further into the tournament than he did last season.
At first glance, XiGua is one of the more standard Chinese Zergs, as he is generally somewhere between what we would expect from someone like Jaedong and the all out roach blitz of a player like Courage. He has shown in WCS that he has strong ZvP, with his wins generally being based in solid roach/hydra play, so he should have a good fighting chance against the two Protoss in the group. Unfortunately for XiGua, he has yet to play a Terran in WCS outside of the Chinese qualifier, and the lack of strong Terran players in China is a problem for players like him. Heart should be a difficult opponent for him, and Oz and Pigbaby won't be much easier. It's a tough group for the Chinese Zerg, but his past performances show that he has a fighting chance.
The final player in this group is without the group member who has without a doubt had the most success in WCS America. pkd.Oz has gone through a slow, methodical, almost robotic climb through the ranks of the region. Over the first four seasons of WCS he was in Premier League all four times and his final results were: Ro32 in Season 1 2013, Ro8 in Season 2 2013, Ro4 in Season 3 2013, and the finals in Season 1 of 2014. If we continue on this trend, the only logical conclusion is that Oz will be the champion of WCS America this season! Of course we can't make that claim based on a coincidental trend, but it is impressive that Oz has not only been consistently a strong player in the region, but he has also improved every single season. However, he is still overlooked on the list of WCS America favorites in a manner that is almost soO-like, but I think it is time we recognize Oz as one of the very best in the region.
Oz didn't look particularly impressive in the Ro32, losing his first set to qxc before beating puCK and qxc to advance. He potentially has to play all three matchups in this group, and he will kick it off with PvZ against XiGua. We haven't seen much of Oz's PvZ recently, but he did go 1-1 in the matchup in SPL with a win over Rogue and a loss against soO. As for PvP, Oz is as inconsistent as ever. One week of SPL he is beating Zest and the next he loses to Super. At Dreamhack, Oz looked impressive in the matchup with wins over Harstem, StarDust, and MC and a close 1-2 loss to San. However, he seemed less in form at MLG this past weekend, taking 0-2 losses to both HerO and Choya. Oz's PvT is acceptable, and he should have some confidence against Heart, whom he beat 2-0 in last season's Ro16. On merit alone Oz should be considered odds on to advance here, and it is about time that Oz is given some of the respect he is due in WCS America.
Overall thoughts and Prediction:
This group is incredibly close on paper, and is very difficult to predict. I am going to give the nod to Oz based on his previous WCS America performances, but he is in serious danger here. Pigbaby vs Heart is going to be a pivotal match, as the winner of that may very well be the second player to advance. In the end, I am going to have to give it to Pigbaby, as I don't think Heart's TvP is quite as strong as his other matchups. I underestimated Pigbaby in the Ro32, and I won't make that mistake again.
Pigbaby > Heart
XiGua < Oz
Heart > XiGua
Pigbaby < Oz
Heart < Pigbaby
Oz and Pigbaby advance.