Newbie Mafia XL - Page 31

On April 09 2013 13:49 Obzy wrote:
sorry nobody, i'm just frustrated. i'm not very good at actual scumhunting, just seeing the big picture - the fact that town is so inactive is getting really ... bothersome. the scummy players are probably catchable at this point, but...
Hmph.

Okay so here's the issue. I can see pretty much everybody being scum and not scum for various reasons.
Fish isn't scum. Assumption. I think that he is improving town atmosphere and behaving in a pro-town way, his stances have not stood out as particularly bad, and I am really glad that he came back and posted several times in a row, bringing new insights and then actually sticking around for a bit. It's like he cares - which is nice.

Rainbows' claim and behavior makes him town. I don't think there is any denying that, the majority of things I have said have been confirming this and taking a stance on this and firming this up and etc etc etc.
But Rainbows' play is not particularly protown, it has large periods of passive-aggressiveness, and he fits in really well with a kirby scumteam. I don't think he's scum but like jesus I wish he would post more constructively, although his overall activity is pretty nice.

JarJar just showed up, and I like his case on kirby quite a bit. The fact that he has so few posts really screams like he doesn't care, but he "sounds" townie by tone, and looks scummy by actions. very frustrating and I really hope he can post actively before ~4ish hours before the lynch so we can try to do some consolidation and discussion on the actual lynch instead of town atmosphere [however important] and lurkers [however frustrating] ahaha.

nobodywonder, i'm sorry for being down on you. I realize it's not encouraging and I shouldn't've acted that way, given that I've been hoping for you to post every day. That said, it has been three days. From the 6th 14:01 till the 9th 11:44 you didn't post a single time. Except for once in a starcraft 2 thread, apparently, according to your profile. Exempting everything else, I feel like you don't care about town. Your above post is decent, it looks like it has reasonable townie analysis and apparently there's more to come, but your behavior in lurking has not been pro-town, and has not shown you actually care about how we're doing. If you can fix that, I'll lighten up on you a little bit.

Ravens feels very defensive, which I honestly think is townier than not. I hate his tunnel on Rainbows, even though I understand because Rain is not playing in a pro-town manner, I can't reconcile myself to agree with it because I think it's as good as proven that Rain is town. (Like if someone trolly was an innocent child or something is how I see him.) I have no idea what to think of Ravens anymore lol. -_-

Smancer is odd. He made, in my eyes, a good case on jampi, and followed the lynch to the end, picking up negative attention. I have a hard time believing mafia would do this, since it puts him strongly in the spotlight. He didn't like my case on Ravens (and I apparently didn't either or I'd still be voting him and he'd be scum instead of null), but he's apparently read me as town all game, so he wasn't just disagreeing because he disagreed with ME, but with the case itself. But then he almost immediately 180s randomly on Rainbows and compliments Rainbows' case on Ravens, what? So I'm somewhat uncertain of Smancer too, it feels like my unvoiced opinion of him shifts drastically throughout a day where I start or end a day thinking he's very scummy, and the next day he's somehow townie, and I don't know what causes these shifts.

Regarding Warent, I feel like every time I look at him he's scum, but I also feel like he's acting in a pro-town way. Maybe it's the way he types? On sheer scumminess I swear he's always top. It's unfortunate too that he lives in a different timezone so we have different active hours, but there's obviously nothing that can be done about this. It doesn't help that he soft-accused me and Fish (and Rain), then switched to questioning the people on jampi's wagon and wanting our opinions on each other - but like, that is what I would want if I thought there were scum on Jampi's wagon -_-

Kirby... Sigh. I like the case against him. I don't really like that he's lurking (Although really, it's not lurking. It's just blatantly being afk. Jarjar, nobodywonder, Kirby, and Moloch are all, or were all just blatantly afk.) I don't have a damn clue. As is clearly obvious, I don't have any idea who the mafia is and I really hope I get shot night 2 so I can stop worrying! It could be anybody except fish IMHO, with it being more likely to not be Ravens or Rainbow or Warent singlehandedly because they actually have talked to me a decent amount, whereas Smancer made a big deal of talking to me but my opinion of him isn't solidified in my head, and nobodywonder/Jarjar have begun posting again but I don't know how to treat the fact that they were gone for so long.

Moloch isn't here, I mean what does that even mean!? He's just like, fucking gone? Still? And he was on jampi's wagon? Like why is he gone lol >.< He was a very solid townread for me exiting day 1 and now he's just not here.and my confidence has eroded throughout the day and several hours that he has been missing and now I have no idea what to think of him.

So who are my scumreads, nobodywonder? I don't know. Whenever I think about "if this guy is scum, then ________" i end up with ridiculous conspiracy theories and completely unrelated sets of scumteams with no common denominator.


If kirby doesn't, I guess I'd lynch him primarily. If you (nobodywonder) and Jarjar are active, I don't really have a problem with you... somehow. If Warent wakes up and isn't protown throughout the next day, I'd also be willing to lynch him. If Moloch doesn't show up at all (and doesn't vote), I don't want to vote on a pure lurker that I was once very town on, so maybe he'll get modkilled or something, but if he shows up and drops a vote with bad reasoning and takes off I'd vote him too. He'd need to stick around for several hours and be townie and explain what he thinks because if he can't then like I'm sorry but that's just not okay.

I'm less okay with lynching Ravens and I don't really get why. I refuse to lynch Fish. I'm okay with lynching Rainbows only on day 3 if we mislynch today and he still doesn't die and doesn't pick up his game because I'd rather just fucking kill him and lose than let him troll continuously and then turn out to magically, miraculously, fucking SOMEHOW be scum in the end, despite the fact that it would make no sense and would mean I was completely taken in, I'd kill him and lose just to prevent that anger. Like I don't even know Rain frustrates me because I put so much work into defending him and now it feels like he's not living up to my apparently rather high expectations. Sorry buddy ^^ Don't take this too hard~

And for Smancer and if I'm okay with lynching him - throw a fucking dart, my read on smancer is aligned with the phases of the moon. I hope this post helps people.

Tell me honestly, you're town, don't lie please XD

On April 06 2013 10:50 Moloch wrote:
I've been away for a while, so I'll give general impressions of what I think of people so far.

Jarjar - He is certain kirby is skum in his first post because he feels kirby changed his mind too easily. I feel he reads too much into kirby's unvote. Everything he's posted has been aggressive towards kirby, while being certain Rainbows is a townie because of his read on kirby.

I'm suspicious of him because his only reasons (that he's stated) come from kirby's noncommital way of saying that Rainbows is either scum or an idiot. Since then, he's done nothing aside from saying kirby is very suspicious ( using that as the reason he thinks Rainbows is townie).

Smancer - Nothing he's said raised any red flags and I like the variety in his posting style. A mixture of his opinions and questions to try to keep conversation going.

jampidampi - He hasn't given his own opinion on anything aside from saying that he thinks Rainbows misinterpreted Saraf's post. Also, a third of his posts talk about whether or not someone else is at their computer (even getting aggressive with kirby when kirby replies to him).

I don't have a strong opinion of him, though. It could be that he feels a delay in posting is scum chatting with each other to try to figure out what to do. I don't think it's a good idea to base opinions off of this since there will be a lot more false-positives with strangely long reply times than there will be actual scum catches.

Warent - He explains Rainbow's misinterpreting (which I completely agree with), and gave opinions on a couple other people. I like his style.

Saraf - He's pushing to lynch the spammiest asshole a bit too much. I think he did imply that Rainbows was the spammy asshole, but he certainly did not state that Rainbows was a townie.

kirby - I like his reasoning that he's given for his decisions recarding voting/unvoting Rainbows. At first he thinks he's malicious, then thinks he's an idiot fattie. I don't like how his reason to suspect jampidampi is that he isn't suspicious. It feels really weird to me.

TRN - He has only made three posts that aren't spam. He hasn't made any statements about his own opinion, just ask questions of others (aside from his post about the hypothetical A, B, C, D policy question). I like him less now than I did before.

Fishgle - I like that he appears to be posting a good mixture of calling other people out without accusing, and posting his own opinions. I like what he says about Warent's hypocrisy, but I'm unsure what I think about his suggestion that Rainbows got a blind hit on Saraf (I'll go into more once I'm done every person)

Obzy - I have a positive opinion of how he's been posting. I get a general okay vibe from him.

nobodywonder - His posting style seems defensive overall. It doesn't give me a good feeling, but I do like how he is able to critique why someone else voted for kirby, and then vote for kirby himself a little bit later. It implies an open mind. I have really mixed feelings about this guy,

Rainbows - I feel this has been the most controversial person. I really don't like how he is pushing so hard to have Saraf lynched off a sentence that Rainbows misinterpreted (multiple people pointed it out to him and he still kept going hardcore against Saraf).

On April 08 2013 08:14 Moloch wrote:




I'll do my best to answer both of these. I didn't particularly want to lynch JJD because, while he exhibited some of the same signs as jampi early-game (only ever talking about one person and never giving their own opinions on anything else), there wasn't nearly as many posts to go on. I realized that he might be scum lurking, but I felt there was a better chance he was just busy than he was lurking with malicious intent.

As far as comparing him to Rainbows, the only thing the two of them have in common is that they each made a bad case. Overall, I felt the chance of the entire Rainbows ragequitting being legitimate was higher than being completely faked.

While I've been thinking about it post-fact, I've been trying to think about Rainbows' move from a scum perspective. What would it gain them?
- It gained them a non-Rainbows lynch. At the time of the explosion, I believe Rainbows was the one on track to being lynched.
- It spread a lot of discord.
Both of these things are obviously what they want short-term - especially if Rainbows actually is scum.

BUT
At the time of his declaration, they would have no way of knowing whether there's a real vigi. If there is, it's quite obvious the best thing for him to do is take out Rainbows - something the scum have no way of preventing unless they convince the doctor to protect him - which would result in good discussion and make people's alliance's easier to read.

I'm going to wait until tomorrow before I read too much into anything. The scum hitting someone will give us another confirmed townie, so that will change almost every read we can make at the moment.