U&D Group C

DongRaeGu
      Expected score: 3.95-1.05 (sets: 3.95-1.05)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 78.40%
      Most likely place: 1st (56.34%)

Symbol
      Expected score: 3.19-1.81 (sets: 3.19-1.81)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 53.68%
      Most likely place: 2nd (31.89%)

First
      Expected score: 2.82-2.18 (sets: 2.82-2.18)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 38.85%
      Most likely place: 3rd (25.65%)

LosirA
      Expected score: 1.90-3.10 (sets: 1.90-3.10)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 12.93%
      Most likely place: 5th (25.89%)

Bbyong
      Expected score: 1.67-3.33 (sets: 1.67-3.33)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 9.11%
      Most likely place: 6th (31.06%)

Grubby
      Expected score: 1.47-3.53 (sets: 1.47-3.53)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 7.03%
      Most likely place: 6th (37.09%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        LosirA:   22.35%   25.89%   24.03%   14.80%    9.22%    3.71%
         First:    6.16%   11.64%   17.70%   25.65%   24.07%   14.78%
        Bbyong:   31.06%   26.69%   19.07%   14.07%    6.65%    2.46%
        Symbol:    2.76%    8.18%   14.13%   21.26%   31.89%   21.79%
        Grubby:   37.09%   25.08%   18.86%   11.94%    6.10%    0.93%
     DongRaeGu:    0.59%    2.52%    6.22%   12.28%   22.06%   56.34%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        LosirA:    6.12%   27.39%   40.42%   22.39%    3.68%         
         First:             7.48%   30.12%   39.07%   19.89%    3.44%
        Bbyong:   10.44%   33.49%   37.03%   16.51%    2.54%         
        Symbol:             3.29%   19.34%   39.20%   31.04%    7.14%
        Grubby:   15.78%   37.43%   32.66%   12.40%    1.73%         
     DongRaeGu:             0.47%    5.35%   22.60%   42.19%   29.39%

Set score

                      -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5
        LosirA:    6.12%            27.39%            40.42%            22.39%             3.68%                  
         First:                      7.48%            30.12%            39.07%            19.89%             3.44%
        Bbyong:   10.44%            33.49%            37.03%            16.51%             2.54%                  
        Symbol:                      3.29%            19.34%            39.20%            31.04%             7.14%
        Grubby:   15.78%            37.43%            32.66%            12.40%             1.73%                  
     DongRaeGu:                      0.47%             5.35%            22.60%            42.19%            29.39%

Vindicare605

United States15978 Posts

January 08 2013 10:11 GMT

#350

On January 08 2013 19:05 Vindicare605 wrote:
Grubby vs DRG

Map: Antiga Shipyard

0:00 Grubby (Red) spawns top right, DRG (Blue) Spawns in bottom left.
DRG opens with a 14 pool, Grubby with a Forge first Pylon down for what looks like a top of the big ramp FFE.

5:00 Nothing unusual, both players macroing hard, no gasses down for DRG at the natural, FFE up and running for Grubby. Third hatchery going down for DRG

6:00 All 4 gasses going down for DRG. Robotics finishing for Grubby

7:00 Warp Prism in production for Grubby, appears to be going for a harassment strategy. DRG attempts to scout the Robotics and Grubby intentionally cancels the Warp Prism so that it didn't complete within DRG's vision

9:00 Infestation Pit going down for DRG along with both Melee and Carapace upgrades, 4 Stalker drop dealing decent damage at the third of DRG. 8 workers killed and none of the Stalkers have been killed so far.

10:30 +2 attack and Blink researching for Grubby first Infestors for DRG are complete for DRG.

11:30 Third Nexus for Grubby going down along with a Robotics Bay, DRG scouts the attempt at a third and decides to take a 4th at the center expansion. Grubby continues to harass with the 4 Stalkers not losing any of them.

13:00 DRG moves out with his army of Infestors and Zerglings attacks into the gap between Grubby's third and Natural. A few missed forcefields allows DRG to get in close with Zerglings Grubby loses a lot of units and workers at his third but manages to hold the attack.

15:00 +3 just now finishing for Grubby +2+2 Melee finished now for DRG Extended Thermal Lances almost complete.

16:40 DRG attacks into Grubby's defensive line between the third and natural. Corruptors manage to take out Grubby's collosus, All of DRG's Infestors survive and Grubby takes heavy unit losses. Hive is already in production for DRG.

17:50 Roaches manage to sneak by Grubby's defenses and into the natural. Infestors attack Grubby's third and kills the Nexus but DRG loses all but 4 of his Infestors. Grubby takes the initiative and moves out to the middle of the map.

19:20 DRG is maxed on Roaches Lings Corruptors and Infestors Grubby is at 148 supply

20:00 DRG takes an engagement just outside of the middle of the map on Grubby's side, trades well against the more expensive Protoss units. The first Broodlords finish. DRG's Broodlord count going up to 9.

21:20 DRG attacks again into Grubby's remaining defenses but down in supply and without significant Stalker numbers or Mothership cannot hold. Grubby surrenders and DRG takes the game.

Lakona

Canada110 Posts

January 08 2013 10:11 GMT

#351

Brilliant symphony of play by DRG, Grubby not on the same level at all

neoghaleon55

United States7434 Posts

January 08 2013 10:11 GMT

#352

bossraegu
<3

Looms

United States4624 Posts

January 08 2013 10:11 GMT

#353

GG DongRaeGu. Not much doubt about who was going to win that game, but hopefully Grubby can recover

Shellshock

United States97274 Posts

January 08 2013 10:12 GMT

#354

Thanks for doing the LRs Vindicare605!

MapleLeafSirup

Germany948 Posts

January 08 2013 10:12 GMT

#355

grubby should have used his first templars for feedbacks (instead of making archons) and he would have looked a lot better in the first fight

DJHelium

Sweden13480 Posts

January 08 2013 10:12 GMT

#356

DongRaeGu just a level above Grubby and everyone else in this group. Don't think he will lose a single game!

Grubby looking ok though, just not code s level.

Valikyr

Sweden2653 Posts

January 08 2013 10:12 GMT

#357

On January 08 2013 19:09 xAdra wrote:
Wolf and khaldor need to stop pretending Grubby stands a chance, infstor-broodlord incoming, protoss has no third and too little units...

One can only hope : ), but yea if the P isn't far ahead when the zerg teched up it's over.

UnKooL

Korea (South)1667 Posts

January 08 2013 10:12 GMT

#358

Zoo Zoo Bubble OP!