EPTThe question isn't if he will go broke. The question is when. No one, not him, not the casino and not the pope will know when. But he will go broke eventually. It can be today or it can be in a week. Apart from that it's still likely that he'll hit his head against min/max bets before he hits his bankroll limit. =P
Blackjack and other near 50/50 games - Page 2
| Blogs > FullNatural |
|
r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
The question isn't if he will go broke. The question is when. No one, not him, not the casino and not the pope will know when. But he will go broke eventually. It can be today or it can be in a week. Apart from that it's still likely that he'll hit his head against min/max bets before he hits his bankroll limit. =P | ||
|
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
On August 18 2012 09:57 FullNatural wrote: Yes I see the article. That is what I was looking for. So are you telling me that someone with a million dollars starting at the $100 limit in my example is going to reach this limit and go broke in a short time span? and not make a profit? Think about it this way. What does he have to gain vs. lose? He's only playing for 100 dollars. By the rules we've set out he will stop after he wins once. However, if he is unlucky, he has the potential to lose EVERYTHING depending on the limit. It really does not matter how small that chance is for the casino. Maybe this millionaire wins his 100 dollars for the day and he never comes back again. Great. But what about the next millionaire, and the next, and the next? It's the same thing that happens when you're betting on a clear favorite in a sporting event. The odds of you winning are high, but you don't win very much while on the other hand you might get upset and lose a ton of money. With the bet ceiling in place you cannot win in the long run using this strategy. | ||
|
TheKefka
Croatia11752 Posts
The house has MUCH more money than you do.It can support you having a win streak,but eventually you will loose with this system.Even when the odds are 50/50 over a period of time the clear winner will ofc be the one that has the bigger pool of money,the house. The point is with this system the house can support a loss every single time,while you on the other hand,can loose only once and your out. So actually this betting system is by far the worst because it guarantees the house to win and even if you can't go into negative because it's your initial 100$ you can't really pull any profit,unless you go on a crazy win streak and pull out. | ||
|
r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:07 Itsmedudeman wrote: Think about it this way. What does he have to gain vs. lose? He's only playing for 100 dollars. By the rules we've set out he will stop after he wins once. However, if he is unlucky, he has the potential to lose EVERYTHING depending on the limit. It really does not matter how small that chance is for the casino. It's the same thing that happens when you're betting on a clear favorite in a sporting event. The odds of you winning are high, but you don't win very much while on the other hand you might get upset and lose a ton of money. With the bet ceiling in place you cannot win in the long run using this strategy. Uh, just to correct you here: It's actually possible to make money with sport bets. They aren't zero sum games and since the odds are - basically - set by which side has more irrational fanboys the odds given rarely represent the statistical outcome of the games. In case you already knew this and that was the reason why you specifically mentioned betting on the favorite as something bad (because it should be in most cases)... nevermind. =P | ||
|
FullNatural
United States180 Posts
| ||
|
GroT
Belgium3003 Posts
This thread is amazing if u consider this isn't a gambling forum, everybody replied perfectly wtf u guys are geniuses | ||
|
r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:12 FullNatural wrote: I wonder what those odds of losing 10 in a row are with my example in the OP. As far as a long term strategy my example in the OP does not seem valid. However, I wonder if there are more complex systems out there. I'm sure there are people in the world making money off stuff like this. Do the math. It isn't complicated. Basically it's a decision tree with 2 possible outcomes at each branch. As for whether there are people making money off stuff like this: Yes, the casinos. Besides the fact that there aren't any real zero sum games on casino tables the combination of betting limits+limited funds eliminate the possibility for anyone to make a profit against that system. Black vs red in roulette e.g. (which people love to call a zero sum game) doesn't exist because of the green zero which completely screws you over, even without any limits. Now, stuff like counting cards in e.g. Blackjack is a whole different story but that's pretty much only possible in places where only few decks are used at once and the deck isn't reshuffled after each hand. (Hint: Those aren't the places where lots of money is flowing around.) | ||
|
GroT
Belgium3003 Posts
| ||
|
Flip9
Germany151 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:12 FullNatural wrote: I wonder what those odds of losing 10 in a row are with my example in the OP. As far as a long term strategy my example in the OP does not seem valid. However, I wonder if there are more complex systems out there. I'm sure there are people in the world making money off stuff like this. the odds to lose 10 times out of ten, if the odds to lose one game is 50% is 1/2^10 * 100 (the *100 are to get %) = 0,09765625%. Have you read my other post? Your chance to win is very high but the amount you win is very low, compared to what you lose IF you lose. | ||
|
TheKefka
Croatia11752 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:18 GroT wrote: just out of curiosity, is this taught in schools? I don't know about others but probability and statistics is a part of Math 3 course at my college. I'm guessing a small part is thought in high school maybe,I don't remember. | ||
|
r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:18 GroT wrote: just out of curiosity, is this taught in schools? Funnily we learned the math necessary to calculate it but we never applied it to a problem like this (which resulted in pretty much everyone not caring about it and therefor not learning it properly =P). We did it on like dice rolls and stuff but not on gambling. We had one teacher however who tried to make us like statistics more by introducing the Monty Hall Problem. Now THAT shit hooked every single one in my class back then. I'm still fascinated by it today to be honest and love to use it to completely screw with someones brain. That situation shows way more than any other as to how badly our brains screw up when it comes to our "intuition" about statistics. <3 Edit for fun for those who want to have a go at it before clicking the wiki link: Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1 [but the door is not opened], and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? | ||
|
GroT
Belgium3003 Posts
| ||
|
GroT
Belgium3003 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:23 r.Evo wrote: That situation shows way more than any other as to how badly our brains screw up when it comes to our "intuition" about statistics. <3 Yes it's sick just how badly our intuition gets it wrong and basicly why I feel it's unethical for casinos to rape uneducated ppl who follow that intuition edit: oh that's what monty hall means, definitely recommended for people who haven't heard of it (and don't feel bad if u get it wrong, so does everyone else) | ||
|
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:17 GroT wrote: FullNatural no, there is no betting system that turns losing bets into a profitable proposition. It's not just martingale that doesn't work, nothing else can possibly work either. This thread is amazing if u consider this isn't a gambling forum, everybody replied perfectly wtf u guys are geniuses Not anything like a betting system mentioned in this thread, but I'm pretty sure you can win money off of perfectly played blackjack without card counting. But poker is the best I think if you have the skill. | ||
|
r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:26 GroT wrote: Yes it's sick just how badly our intuition gets it wrong and basicly why I feel it's unethical for casinos to rape uneducated ppl who follow that intuition edit: oh that's what monty hall means, definitely recommended for people who haven't heard of it (and don't feel bad if u get it wrong, so does everyone else) To quote rounders: "It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money." It's harsh, but if I buy a rolex off a random dude on the streets for 1000$ I shouldn't be surprised if it wasn't real. If I enter a building which makes its living out of the people who go there and lose money while having fun doing so I deserve to lose money. But, yeah. I understand that it gets tricky rather quickly once you add all the addicting factors and their results in. Edit: On August 18 2012 10:33 Itsmedudeman wrote: Not anything like a betting system mentioned in this thread, but I'm pretty sure you can win money off of perfectly played blackjack without card counting. But poker is the best I think if you have the skill. Source please. I'd love to know about it if it exists but I highly doubt it does. | ||
|
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:33 r.Evo wrote: To quote rounders: "It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money." It's harsh, but if I buy a rolex off a random dude on the streets for 1000$ I shouldn't be surprised if it wasn't real. If I enter a building which makes its living out of the people who go there and lose money while having fun doing so I deserve to lose money. But, yeah. I understand that it gets tricky rather quickly once you add all the addicting factors and their results in. Edit: Source please. I'd love to know about it if it exists but I highly doubt it does. Actually i was wrong, you can't profit without card counting against the dealer, but you can get it really close to 50/50 (not in your favor still of course) without card counting. I guess it should be obvious by now that a casino would never run a game that could gain you the edge legally. | ||
|
TheKefka
Croatia11752 Posts
You also don't have a infinitely richer opponent sitting next to you. There is a reason Phil Ivey plays poker and not black jack for a living. | ||
|
GroT
Belgium3003 Posts
The edge you end up having if you master blackjack is so small anyway, and then you just get kicked out once they figure out you play well which they're experts at doing. If you want to make money without doing anything useful, you should target other players (by playing a game like poker) instead of going up against the casino by playing a game like blackjack | ||
|
r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:39 TheKefka wrote: There is none.Poker is the only way to actually make money off gambling and that's because at a poker table some factors come into play that don't appear at the for instance black jack table. You also don't have a infinitely richer opponent sitting next to you. There is a reason Phil Ivey plays poker and not black jack for a living. Well, you play versus other people and not against the house. In fact, the more you play the better you are for the house (assuming you don't drive other customers away). If you can beat the players harder than the rake beats you, you make a profit. Also the house has no interest of getting rid of you if you are winning. Afaik especially Blackjack was famous for getting people banned from games before the whole automatic shuffle stuff came up and card counting stopped working at all. Edit on Blackjack odds from wiki: Estimates of the house edge for blackjack games quoted by casinos and gaming regulators are generally based on the assumption that the players follow basic strategy and do not systematically change their bet size. Most blackjack games have a house edge of between 0.5% and 1%, placing blackjack among the cheapest casino table games. Casino promotions such as complimentary matchplay vouchers or 2:1 blackjack payouts allow the player to acquire an advantage without deviating from basic strategy. Comparing that to e.g. roulette or, worse, slots that house edge is really incredibly small. | ||
|
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
| ||
| ||
