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[SPL] Statisfaction

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[SPL] Statisfaction

Text byriptide
June 6th, 2009 03:57 GMT
Weekly Roundup
By Riptide

Unlike the first week of school, the first week of Proleague R5 started off with a bang. With Wemade taking SKT T1 to the cleaners, and Effort performing an elegant double kill on eSTRO to take CJ to 27 wins, last Saturday saw some good games. Although it may seem unusual that a team ranked 10th would take out SKT T1 in their R5 opener, thanks to the heyoka’s statistics we can see that this is not all that surprising after all.

[image loading]
Team vs Team analysis courtesy of the Results and Standings thread.

No, your eyes are not deceiving you. Wemade is actually 3 – 1 vs SKT T1 this year. It’s funny but true, and now we know, thanks to the monster statistics that heyoka has been producing. The table is interesting because it highlights a number of other things, including, but not limited to the dominance Oz has shown this season. 4-0 vs Sparkyz, FOX and ACE, they are currently the team to have the most unbeaten runs. Their position at #1, though strengthened by two great wins this week, is now within grabbing distance of CJ, who also had a great week to end up at 28-18, and now tie with SKT T1 for second place.

[image loading]
CJ and SKT are now both hot on the heels of Oz.

Their loss to Oz in their only game this week put the Sparkyz down by one, but at 26-19 they still are very much in contention for a #2 or #3 spot. Although beat Stars to hold on to a shaky #4, they will definitely get a run for their money from a Hite team led by an ever hungry Leta.

Having looked at the team standings, it’s time now to get down to individual games. There were a number of notable matches this week.

(Z)HoeJJa <Shades of Twilight> (T)XellOs

+ Show Spoiler +
What a game. Not because XellOs’ play was particularly brilliant, or because this HoeJJa was severely outclassed, because he wasn’t, but because it reminded many of us of what the Perfect Terran used to look like. A long drawn out TvZ, the former-CJ, now ACE Terran slowly edges back from the brink of defeat to take down the Zerg in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. Cue comments about HoeJJa’s imba A-move mutas.


(Z)Jaedong <Heartbreak Ridge> (T)Leta

+ Show Spoiler +
In Proleague, you get Ace matches, and then you get Ace matches like this. A crazy game, with Leta making everything from marines, to wraiths, dropships and goliaths, and Jaedong adapting to each tech change with the cold determination of a trained assassin, this is a game that you will want to watch, and then re-watch, and then save so you can show it to your grandchildren someday and say my sons and daughters, this is how eSports was played before they made everything ezmode.


In terms of individual standings, Jaedong bagged 3 wins this week, with Bisu netting only two, and therefore has edged his rival in the top gun ranking. In doing so, the Oz powerhouse also took the game off Leta in the Oz vs Sparkyz Ace match, making it that much more difficult for the Terran to move up the rankings.

Before we move on, here’s a summary of this week’s action.
+ Show Spoiler +
30 May 2009
SK Telecom T1 1-3 WeMade FOX
(Z)Thezerg < (Z)RorO on God's Garden
(P)BeSt < (T)Mind on Heartbreak Ridge
(P)Bisu > (Z)keke on Neo Medusa
(T)fantasy < (P)Pure on Destination

eSTRO 2-3 CJ Entus
(T)UpMaGiC > (Z)Kwanro on Outsider
(Z)hyvaa < (P)Much on Shades of Twilight
(T)Really > (T)sKyHigh on Destination
(P)SangHo < (Z)EffOrt on Neo Medusa
(Z)hyvaa < (Z)EffOrt on Heartbreak Ridge

31 May 2009
KT MagicNs 3-1 Air Force ACE
(P)Violet > (P)Anytime on Heartbreak Ridge
(T)Flash > (Z)GoRush on Destination
(Z)HoeJJa < (T)XellOs on Shades of Twilight
(Z)815 > (Z)OversKy on God's Garden

MBCGame HERO 1-3 STX SouL
(T)Sea < (T)Last on Shades of Twilight
(T)Light > (Z)by.hero on Neo Medusa
(P)Jaehoon < (P)Kal on Heartbreak Ridge
(Z)HyuN < (Z)Calm on Outsider

1 June 2009
Woongjin Stars 1-3 Samsung KHAN
(Z)ZerO < (Z)great on Heartbreak Ridge
(P)free < (P)Stork on Shades of Twilight
(P)GuemChi > (T)firebathero on Destination
(T)PianO < (P)JangBi on Neo Medusa

Hite SPARKYZ 2-3 Hwaseung Oz
(Z)HoGiL > (T)HiyA on Outsider
(P)Horang2 < (Z)Jaedong on Destination
(T)Leta > (T)Lomo on Shades of Twilight
(Z)YellOw[ArnC] < (P)BackHo on God's Garden
(T)Leta < (Z)Jaedong on Heartbreak Ridge

2 June 2009
SK Telecom T1 3-0 eSTRO
(P)Bisu > (T)Really on Destination
(Z)s2 > (Z)hyvaa on God's Garden
(T)fantasy > (T)UpMaGiC on Outsider

WeMade FOX 0-3 CJ Entus
(Z)RorO < (P)Much on God's Garden
(T)BaBy < (Z)EffOrt on Neo Medusa
(Z)Shine[kaL] < (T)sKyHigh on Heartbreak Ridge

3 June 2009
KT MagicNs 3-1 MBCGame HERO
(T)fOrGG < (T)Light on Destination
(Z)Luxury > (Z)Saint on God's Garden
(P)Violet > (Z)HyuN on Outsider
(T)Flash > (P)Pusan on Heartbreak Ridge

STX SouL 3-2 Air Force ACE
(Z)Calm < (Z)GoRush on Heartbreak Ridge
(P)Kal > (T)Casy on Shades of Twilight
(T)Notice < (P)Anytime on Destination
(Z)by.hero > (Z)OversKy on Neo Medusa
(Z)Calm > (Z)GoRush on Outsider


Now, let’s get started on the fun stuff. Earlier on in the week, I asked heyoka if he could run to his magic stats machine and give me some predictions for Week 2. He emerged a few days later, bleary eyed but smiling, and gave me these.
STX SouL < Woongjin Stars (54%)

KT MagicNs < Hite SPARKYZ (62%)

Samsung KHAN (75%) > CJ Entus

Hwaseung Oz (64%) > SK Telecom T1

MBCGame HERO (61%)] > WeMade FOX

Air Force ACE (61%) > eSTRO

STX SouL < Hite SPARKYZ (60%)

KT MagicNs (62%) > Woongjin Stars

Samsung KHAN < SK Telecom T1 (54%)

Hwaseung Oz (55%) > CJ Entus

How did heyoka arrive at these predictions? Why, we thought you’d never ask.

Crunching Numbers
By Heyoka

I love the new proleague format. KeSPA has made a lot of awful, awful decisions in the past year but changing the proleague format was not one of them. I like the removal of 2v2, but what I really love is the expansion of proleague to a 5 round format, that spans a whole year. Team league is a war of small advantages, the addition or removal of a single solid player can drastically change your playoff expectations.

With 4 rounds already played, and a round robin still left before playoffs, we have a reasonable amount of data to make projections for future performance. Accurate tools for quantifying specific chances a team has have never truly been worked out, and for the first time in Starcraftf history I think we have a large enough set of numbers to make a good attempt. Over the coming weeks I am going to go through my ideas and thoughs for doing so, as well as discussing the process taken to refine the methods used.

Predictors
Eventually I will get into how we can model a team's exact chances of finishing in the top spots, and the worth of making the playoffs. Though before that can be done, I need to explain how I estimate a team's chances of winning a specific match (conveniently this is probably also the most interesting part for most people).

When people discuss who they think the favourite is to win a match, you usually end up with a post that looks like this:
(T)Really < (P)BeSt
(P)SangHo < (T)fantasy
(Z)hyvaa > (Z)Thezerg
(T)UpMaGiC < (Z)Hyuk
eSTRO 1 - 3 SK Telecom T1

Yes, with a bunch of words describing why you think one player is stronger than another. This is an OK way of doing it, but has two problems. The first is that this kind of ranking system doesn't count for the probability of different combinations of wins happening. Is the chance of Really upsetting BeSt greater or less than the chance of Thezerg upsetting hyvaa? What happens when fantasy gets blown out by proxy gates, do we think SKT can still take a win*? The second, and more important, problem is it relies too much on gut feel of how matchups will play out. The mind will always over-value most recent performance when looking at player strength. Past performance as a whole tends to be a better indicator here, and is something we can easily quantify.

*This is a bad example because eSTRO has an awful record in ace games, stay with me.

I decided to see how it would play out if we were to solve for each possible outcome, and then see which team had the best chances overall. There are 10 possible ways for a team to win a best of 5 competition (WWW, LWWW and on) so there are 20 total outcomes for a match. I made an excel spreadsheet that does each of these for me, it looks something like this:

[image loading]


The columns are the chances each team has of winning, and the rows show the different ways they have of winning. In this case, eSTRO has an estimated 2.2% chance to win this match by a 3-0 result. The bottom row is the total chances each team has of winning the match (it adds up all the total column). The 1 is to make sure the two add up correctly.
How do we get those numbers?

This all hinges on estimating win percentages for a single player vs player game. This is (unfortunately) the roughest part of this calculation, as the best way we have of predicting future performance is simply past win-loss. To do this, I filled in a small chart that has the total win percentages of each player vs his opponent's race. I haven't decided how to best go about this yet, if I can use total win percentages or if I should use league-specific stats. This one has stats from these players only during 08-09 proleague, except for HyuK. The chart looked like this:

[image loading]

The "set 5" numbers are ace match percentages through rounds 1, 2, and 4. There are ways to do this to get more exact numbers using who we know is likely to be an ace player, but they aren't developed yet and will be refined later.

To then judge how likely it is that either will win a given game, I used the log5 method. You can read an explanation here, basically it is this formula:

A - A * B


WPct
= -----------------


+ B - 2 * A * B


A is team A's winning percentage and B is team B's winning percentage.

Those calculations make their own little chart, that is referenced by the first set of percentages. That 2.2% chance of the game going 3-0 in eSTRO's favour is found by multiplying the log5 estro set 1, 2 and 3 together. It then goes through and does the same thing, for each possible outcome and then adds it together to get a team's total chances of winning the match. Using this method, it shows SKT with this lineup is 60% to beat this exact lineup. I think that number is probably a little low, but given that SKT was 2:1 vs eSTRO so far (at that point in the season) and that the end result was 3 games to 2, it should be well within a pretty small range of what it truly is.

Using a slightly less refined method than this, I picked something like 65% of winners in proleague through round 4. Thats slightly higher than I was doing with a more intuition based method, so while the results weren't phenomenal I'm pretty confident this is still better handicapping than most people are able to do. Last week I went 8-2 with it, with one loss being SKT vs WeMade (a clear favorite losing I think) and the other being MBC vs STX (a flaw in the system). Last was 0-3 TvT and I was unure how to accurately weigh him vs Sea, the match was close enough that it would have made a difference had I messed with it more and I think I probably under-estimated his true chances of winning.

Some other problems with this so far:
- It doesn't account for map balance at all. I haven't figured out to correctly weigh that, but it should be possible in the future.

- You never really get ranges outside of 40-60%. It really only tells you who the favourite is, which pretty often is something that is already commonly understood. It can produce surprising results when lower-tier teams play each other which can be cool.

- Individual player percentages are still rough. This will be fixable in the future, but developing a system that more accurately estimates those is going to take considerable time (probably more than I will ever have, realistically). This model will always have the problem that players with few stats are going to be difficult to quantify, and I'm unsure how to correct it. This method as a whole will probably be unable to solve that, which is unfortunate as many matches have 1 player who is a relative unknown (actually this could be partially solved if minor league was larger than it is but I don't see that happening anytime soon).

Actual Predictions
OK, now back to the predictions we made earlier in this piece.

STX SouL < Woongjin Stars (54%)

KT MagicNs < Hite SPARKYZ (62%)

Samsung KHAN (75%) > CJ Entus

Hwaseung Oz (64%) > SK Telecom T1

MBCGame HERO (61%)] > WeMade FOX

Air Force ACE (61%) > eSTRO

STX SouL < Hite SPARKYZ (60%)

KT MagicNs (62%) > Woongjin Stars

Samsung KHAN < SK Telecom T1 (54%)

Hwaseung Oz (55%) > CJ Entus

One final thing is that this isn't all that good for predicting ACE matches. Most ACE players don't have past records that are any good in indicating future performance and I haven't found a way to properly weight that yet. That being said, this specific lineup has an OK sample and I feel confident saying ACE is probably slight favorite in this match, but its still likely the less accurate percentage up there.

The Oz vs CJ match was particularly interesting, as it ended in basically a dead 50-50. I played with some different ways of weighting the data and Oz ended up edging out CJ, which seems accurate but I'll need more testing before I can say if it was correct or not.

In the future I plan on taking a similar approach to other team-format related question. I want to quantify things like the actual number of team wins Jaedong create for Oz. How necessary is it for each team to have one good player of each race? Which teams would be hurt the most by removal of a "1 race per match" rule, and who would gain the most? Does KTM's win expecation drop significantly if they play Flash in the 4th set? Can we optimize strategy of who to play on our team if we know which players the opposing team is most likely to send out? Can we eve quantify team depth?

I am confident most of these are things we can calculate to a small degree of certainty, and plan on going into it further through our friend results and standings. The future is wide open for theoretical brood war studies.
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AdministratorSKT T1 | Masters of the Universe
jtype
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
England2167 Posts
June 06 2009 08:29 GMT
#2
This is such a fascinating part of TL's Liquibet and Fantasy sections and, indeed, the competitive SC scene as a whole.

Things that I like to take into account before deciding on my predictions are obviously, past/recent performance in certain matchups, against certain players and play styles, in certain situations (based on the pressure, nerves, etc) but also on certain maps and types of maps.

Mine is based a lot more on gut feeling rather than statistics, but I definitely like your thinking on this and look forward to seeing more on your system.

Nice post.
Lucktar
Profile Joined July 2008
United States526 Posts
June 06 2009 08:38 GMT
#3
Awesome statistical analysis. I'm impressed.
NaDa, much, ZerO fighting!
CursOr
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States6335 Posts
June 06 2009 08:58 GMT
#4
holy crap this is nice. im also worried about Khan vs CJ, but... Jangbi is on my fantasy and id be happy to see him win.
CJ forever (-_-(-_-(-_-(-_-)-_-)-_-)-_-)
SuperArc
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Austria7781 Posts
June 06 2009 09:28 GMT
#5
You give Khan vs CJ 75%? o.O
Snow - future of protoss! :) Nada = baller
Pokernubz
Profile Joined May 2009
Canada88 Posts
June 06 2009 09:35 GMT
#6
75% khan over CJ, yea right..... thats soem good number crunching. does that mean you'll bet me 100$ to 300$ ? ?

Lee Jae Dong! Phil Ivey! Lee Young-Ho! Tom Dwan!
Vequeth
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United Kingdom1116 Posts
June 06 2009 10:02 GMT
#7
Remember guys it takes past rounds into account, for example round 1 and 2 CJ are 10-12 KHAN are 15-7 . Doesnt account for recent slumping in the individual leagues by KHAN.
Aspiring British Caster / Masters Protoss
Carnac
Profile Blog Joined December 2003
Germany / USA16648 Posts
June 06 2009 10:16 GMT
#8
On June 06 2009 18:35 Pokernubz wrote:
75% khan over CJ, yea right..... thats soem good number crunching. does that mean you'll bet me 100$ to 300$ ? ?


maybe you should just read the whole text
ModeratorHi! I'm a .signature *virus*! Copy me into your ~/.signature to help me spread!
ForTenPoints
Profile Joined February 2009
United States140 Posts
June 06 2009 10:24 GMT
#9
Very nice analysis!

What if you applied map balance by multiplying each player's win ratio in that matchup by the map win ratio in that matchup to get an adjusted ratio?

Say player A wins 75 percent PvT and the map is 60 percent PvT, does it work to just do 0.6*0.75 and obtain a new ratio?
Gustav_Wind
Profile Joined July 2008
United States646 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-06-06 11:04:56
June 06 2009 11:02 GMT
#10
The stats about predictions is absolutely great stuff. The explanations as well as the methodology itself are great.

The sad thing is if you believe that there is variance inherent even in a mostly-deterministic game like starcraft (which I do), it means that the statistical approach will give you the right answers in the long run, but is unlikely to consistently give you the right answer (because so many matchups are 60-40 or less), despite being correct. It means that there is a fairly low upper limit to how good you can be at predicting.
Balfazar
Profile Joined November 2008
Australia483 Posts
June 06 2009 11:12 GMT
#11
Have a look at the matchups for Khan vs CJ, Khan are definitely favorites. The only match where Khan don't have a clear advantage is Effort vs Stork. I will be surprised if they don't win.
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
June 06 2009 12:21 GMT
#12
On June 06 2009 20:12 Balfazar wrote:
Have a look at the matchups for Khan vs CJ, Khan are definitely favorites. The only match where Khan don't have a clear advantage is Effort vs Stork. I will be surprised if they don't win.

Given Firebathero's current form, I can actually realistically see CJ win 3-1
Balfazar
Profile Joined November 2008
Australia483 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-06-06 12:41:58
June 06 2009 12:41 GMT
#13
FBH has won his last 3 TvT in dominant fashion, it's the one MU he isn't slumping in. No matter what I say though we will see tomorrow .
pripple
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Finland1714 Posts
June 06 2009 14:02 GMT
#14
nice analysis, was an interesting read, thanks. keep it coming
Jaedong! <> Team MVP <> Mouz.
RaGe
Profile Blog Joined July 2004
Belgium9947 Posts
June 06 2009 14:21 GMT
#15
Nice post, I liked the stats analysis
Moderatorsometimes I get intimidated by the size of my right testicle
JieXian
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Malaysia4677 Posts
June 06 2009 14:32 GMT
#16
Wow! The stats analysis is sublime
Please send me a PM of any song you like that I most probably never heard of! I am looking for people to chat about writing and producing music | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noD-bsOcxuU |
foeffa
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Belgium2115 Posts
June 06 2009 15:11 GMT
#17
Sick statistics. ^__^ tx!
觀過斯知仁矣.
oberon
Profile Joined May 2009
United States1320 Posts
June 06 2009 16:01 GMT
#18
For individual player stats, consider using PMF. There are good docs online. Alternatively, you can do something very similar using BUGS (or BRUGS) that I've found is pretty useful for these sorts of things.
Makhno
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Sweden585 Posts
June 06 2009 16:21 GMT
#19
Very cool stats, I hope you can refine it even further.
"If I think, everything is lost"
danieldrsa
Profile Joined June 2008
Brazil522 Posts
June 06 2009 16:48 GMT
#20

In terms of individual standings, Jaedong bagged 3 wins this week, with Bisu netting only two, and therefore has edged his rival in the top gun ranking. In doing so, the Oz powerhouse also took the game off Leta in the Oz vs Sparkyz Ace match, making it that much more difficult for the Terran to move up the rankings.


3 is ok, 2 is "only"? Thats a tiny difference
Especially if you take into account that SKT wins doesnt depend only of Bisu, and he played less than JD.

Fanboism aside, very nice statistics and math, but i dont have that much patience to carefully read it anymore
-*-
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