[SPL] Statisfaction - Page 3

Pokernubz

Canada88 Posts

June 08 2009 08:01 GMT

#41

I actually had a post written up on how I think KHAN is a more even match than people realize, because FBH had a much higher chance to win his match than people want to admit/will see. I guess that specific point was right, but in the end CJ still blew out KHAN so I can't brag

Sucks for that dude he didnt get back to me on taking the bet

Ya seriously, i was thinkin about it. and the only way i could make the bet, is with pokerstars.com

Cause i am Wayyyyyyyyyy too lazy to open an account at some $$ place for small $.

how much action do people take on side bets anwyays, i just pratically been a lurker for 5 years, now im actually reading forums i use to only just read articles/watch vods.

Also is it frowned upon?

Vex

Ireland454 Posts

June 08 2009 10:51 GMT

#42

Idra makes CJ #2
JD makes Oz #1 :O

Heyoka

Katowice25012 Posts

June 09 2009 11:34 GMT

#43

On June 08 2009 15:30 DogofWar wrote:
I love the great work keep it up.

Show nested quote +

+ Show Spoiler +

I wouldn't be too discouraged because one prediction went bad. One match is not adequate statistical evidence against your method.

Have you considered running the algorithm on past games and data in order to check its accuracy with a large sample?

No, partially because it isn't fully automated yet, and the "past sample size" isn't very large. I can do it for rounds 1 and 2 (and I did it for about half of R2), but that is about it because I'm not really sure how I would do 2v2 ratings for past years. The other problem is rating "strength at time of matchup" when going into the past which can be a little annoying because it puts an extra step into grabbing numbers from TLPD.

Fully automating it should be the next thing I get on doing, because it means for every improvement I make I can then compare results to past performance easily but it keeps getting pushed back.

I don't know how much is taken on side bets and while I'd love to take over that field this probably isn't the right place for it. Maybe I'll take it over to LP.

DogofWar

United States10 Posts

June 10 2009 00:34 GMT

#44

I'm interested to see where you go with this.

What I meant, though, was that you may want to try it on matches for an older league (like Shinhan 07), so you can check accuracy without having to wait for results.

By the way, is there any way to get direct access to the database itself? For automated purposes.

Heyoka

Katowice25012 Posts

June 10 2009 06:46 GMT

#45

I understood exactly what you said and I'm pretty sure I addressed it. Going through older leagues (such as shinhan 07) is difficult because the format included 2v2, in which the "individual formula" I used here would be considerably less accurate and as such would require a major adjustment. I also haven't done it because finding people's records at the time those matches were played is somewhat of a chore the way I do things now, as it ads another step (I have to filter results by date and perhaps format).

It is a definitely a good idea.

DogofWar

United States10 Posts

June 10 2009 07:26 GMT

#46

My bad, I was the one who misinterpreted what you said. I haven't been seriously following progaming long enough to know that they used to have 2v2 in proleague.

But that is why I am curious if it is possible for general population to access TLPD data directly (without using a browser). It seems like the "chore" involved in running historic matches could be solved with half a page of code.

Husky

United States3362 Posts

June 10 2009 16:53 GMT

#47

I meant to post in here sooner but I just wanted to say that it is really appreciated you would take the time to break everything down like this.

Heyoka

Katowice25012 Posts

June 10 2009 19:18 GMT

#48

On June 10 2009 16:26 DogofWar wrote:
But that is why I am curious if it is possible for general population to access TLPD data directly (without using a browser). It seems like the "chore" involved in running historic matches could be solved with half a page of code.

I agree code would help! Generally though, I don't think pop/sonuvbob/whoever controls the actual database lets anyone access it. Maybe I can make a convincing presentation when I have a little stronger argument, getting it completely automated is definitely a goal. I'm going to reach a point eventually where it will become a necessity for improvement/advancing ideas, but right now I'm still sort of playing in the sand with scattered thoughts.

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