EPTBy Riptide
Unlike the first week of school, the first week of Proleague R5 started off with a bang. With Wemade taking SKT T1 to the cleaners, and Effort performing an elegant double kill on eSTRO to take CJ to 27 wins, last Saturday saw some good games. Although it may seem unusual that a team ranked 10th would take out SKT T1 in their R5 opener, thanks to the heyoka’s statistics we can see that this is not all that surprising after all.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/heyoka/TeamvsTeam.png)
No, your eyes are not deceiving you. Wemade is actually 3 – 1 vs SKT T1 this year. It’s funny but true, and now we know, thanks to the monster statistics that heyoka has been producing. The table is interesting because it highlights a number of other things, including, but not limited to the dominance Oz has shown this season. 4-0 vs Sparkyz, FOX and ACE, they are currently the team to have the most unbeaten runs. Their position at #1, though strengthened by two great wins this week, is now within grabbing distance of CJ, who also had a great week to end up at 28-18, and now tie with SKT T1 for second place.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/heyoka/R4Stand.png)
CJ and SKT are now both hot on the heels of Oz.
Their loss to Oz in their only game this week put the Sparkyz down by one, but at 26-19 they still are very much in contention for a #2 or #3 spot. Although beat Stars to hold on to a shaky #4, they will definitely get a run for their money from a Hite team led by an ever hungry Leta.
Having looked at the team standings, it’s time now to get down to individual games. There were a number of notable matches this week.
HoeJJa <Shades of Twilight> 
XellOs+ Show Spoiler +
What a game. Not because XellOs’ play was particularly brilliant, or because this HoeJJa was severely outclassed, because he wasn’t, but because it reminded many of us of what the Perfect Terran used to look like. A long drawn out TvZ, the former-CJ, now ACE Terran slowly edges back from the brink of defeat to take down the Zerg in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. Cue comments about HoeJJa’s imba A-move mutas.
Jaedong <Heartbreak Ridge> Leta+ Show Spoiler +
In Proleague, you get Ace matches, and then you get Ace matches like this. A crazy game, with Leta making everything from marines, to wraiths, dropships and goliaths, and Jaedong adapting to each tech change with the cold determination of a trained assassin, this is a game that you will want to watch, and then re-watch, and then save so you can show it to your grandchildren someday and say my sons and daughters, this is how eSports was played before they made everything ezmode.
In terms of individual standings, Jaedong bagged 3 wins this week, with Bisu netting only two, and therefore has edged his rival in the top gun ranking. In doing so, the Oz powerhouse also took the game off Leta in the Oz vs Sparkyz Ace match, making it that much more difficult for the Terran to move up the rankings.
Before we move on, here’s a summary of this week’s action.
+ Show Spoiler +
30 May 2009
SK Telecom T1 1-3 WeMade FOX
Thezerg < RorO on God's Garden
BeSt < Mind on Heartbreak Ridge
Bisu > keke on Neo Medusa
fantasy < Pure on Destination
eSTRO 2-3 CJ Entus
UpMaGiC > Kwanro on Outsider
hyvaa < Much on Shades of Twilight
Really > sKyHigh on Destination
SangHo < EffOrt on Neo Medusa
hyvaa < EffOrt on Heartbreak Ridge
31 May 2009
KT MagicNs 3-1 Air Force ACE
Violet > Anytime on Heartbreak Ridge
Flash > GoRush on Destination
HoeJJa < XellOs on Shades of Twilight
815 > OversKy on God's Garden
MBCGame HERO 1-3 STX SouL
Sea < Last on Shades of Twilight
Light > by.hero on Neo Medusa
Jaehoon < Kal on Heartbreak Ridge
HyuN < Calm on Outsider
1 June 2009
Woongjin Stars 1-3 Samsung KHAN
ZerO < great on Heartbreak Ridge
free < Stork on Shades of Twilight
GuemChi > firebathero on Destination
PianO < JangBi on Neo Medusa
Hite SPARKYZ 2-3 Hwaseung Oz
HoGiL > HiyA on Outsider
Horang2 < Jaedong on Destination
Leta > Lomo on Shades of Twilight
YellOw[ArnC] < BackHo on God's Garden
Leta < Jaedong on Heartbreak Ridge
2 June 2009
SK Telecom T1 3-0 eSTRO
Bisu > Really on Destination
s2 > hyvaa on God's Garden
fantasy > UpMaGiC on Outsider
WeMade FOX 0-3 CJ Entus
RorO < Much on God's Garden
BaBy < EffOrt on Neo Medusa
Shine[kaL] < sKyHigh on Heartbreak Ridge
3 June 2009
KT MagicNs 3-1 MBCGame HERO
fOrGG < Light on Destination
Luxury > Saint on God's Garden
Violet > HyuN on Outsider
Flash > Pusan on Heartbreak Ridge
STX SouL 3-2 Air Force ACE
Calm < GoRush on Heartbreak Ridge
Kal > Casy on Shades of Twilight
Notice < Anytime on Destination
by.hero > OversKy on Neo Medusa
Calm > GoRush on Outsider
SK Telecom T1 1-3 WeMade FOX
Thezerg < RorO on God's GardenBeSt < Mind on Heartbreak RidgeBisu > keke on Neo Medusafantasy < Pure on DestinationeSTRO 2-3 CJ Entus
UpMaGiC > Kwanro on Outsiderhyvaa < Much on Shades of TwilightReally > sKyHigh on DestinationSangHo < EffOrt on Neo Medusahyvaa < EffOrt on Heartbreak Ridge31 May 2009
KT MagicNs 3-1 Air Force ACE
Violet > Anytime on Heartbreak RidgeFlash > GoRush on DestinationHoeJJa < XellOs on Shades of Twilight815 > OversKy on God's GardenMBCGame HERO 1-3 STX SouL
Sea < Last on Shades of TwilightLight > by.hero on Neo MedusaJaehoon < Kal on Heartbreak RidgeHyuN < Calm on Outsider1 June 2009
Woongjin Stars 1-3 Samsung KHAN
ZerO < great on Heartbreak Ridgefree < Stork on Shades of TwilightGuemChi > firebathero on DestinationPianO < JangBi on Neo MedusaHite SPARKYZ 2-3 Hwaseung Oz
HoGiL > HiyA on OutsiderHorang2 < Jaedong on DestinationLeta > Lomo on Shades of TwilightYellOw[ArnC] < BackHo on God's GardenLeta < Jaedong on Heartbreak Ridge2 June 2009
SK Telecom T1 3-0 eSTRO
Bisu > Really on Destinations2 > hyvaa on God's Gardenfantasy > UpMaGiC on OutsiderWeMade FOX 0-3 CJ Entus
RorO < Much on God's GardenBaBy < EffOrt on Neo MedusaShine[kaL] < sKyHigh on Heartbreak Ridge3 June 2009
KT MagicNs 3-1 MBCGame HERO
fOrGG < Light on DestinationLuxury > Saint on God's GardenViolet > HyuN on OutsiderFlash > Pusan on Heartbreak RidgeSTX SouL 3-2 Air Force ACE
Calm < GoRush on Heartbreak RidgeKal > Casy on Shades of TwilightNotice < Anytime on Destinationby.hero > OversKy on Neo MedusaCalm > GoRush on OutsiderNow, let’s get started on the fun stuff. Earlier on in the week, I asked heyoka if he could run to his magic stats machine and give me some predictions for Week 2. He emerged a few days later, bleary eyed but smiling, and gave me these.
STX SouL < Woongjin Stars (54%)
KT MagicNs < Hite SPARKYZ (62%)
Samsung KHAN (75%) > CJ Entus
Hwaseung Oz (64%) > SK Telecom T1
MBCGame HERO (61%)] > WeMade FOX
Air Force ACE (61%) > eSTRO
STX SouL < Hite SPARKYZ (60%)
KT MagicNs (62%) > Woongjin Stars
Samsung KHAN < SK Telecom T1 (54%)
Hwaseung Oz (55%) > CJ Entus
KT MagicNs < Hite SPARKYZ (62%)
Samsung KHAN (75%) > CJ Entus
Hwaseung Oz (64%) > SK Telecom T1
MBCGame HERO (61%)] > WeMade FOX
Air Force ACE (61%) > eSTRO
STX SouL < Hite SPARKYZ (60%)
KT MagicNs (62%) > Woongjin Stars
Samsung KHAN < SK Telecom T1 (54%)
Hwaseung Oz (55%) > CJ Entus
How did heyoka arrive at these predictions? Why, we thought you’d never ask.
Crunching Numbers
By Heyoka
I love the new proleague format. KeSPA has made a lot of awful, awful decisions in the past year but changing the proleague format was not one of them. I like the removal of 2v2, but what I really love is the expansion of proleague to a 5 round format, that spans a whole year. Team league is a war of small advantages, the addition or removal of a single solid player can drastically change your playoff expectations.
With 4 rounds already played, and a round robin still left before playoffs, we have a reasonable amount of data to make projections for future performance. Accurate tools for quantifying specific chances a team has have never truly been worked out, and for the first time in Starcraftf history I think we have a large enough set of numbers to make a good attempt. Over the coming weeks I am going to go through my ideas and thoughs for doing so, as well as discussing the process taken to refine the methods used.
Predictors
Eventually I will get into how we can model a team's exact chances of finishing in the top spots, and the worth of making the playoffs. Though before that can be done, I need to explain how I estimate a team's chances of winning a specific match (conveniently this is probably also the most interesting part for most people).
When people discuss who they think the favourite is to win a match, you usually end up with a post that looks like this:
Yes, with a bunch of words describing why you think one player is stronger than another. This is an OK way of doing it, but has two problems. The first is that this kind of ranking system doesn't count for the probability of different combinations of wins happening. Is the chance of Really upsetting BeSt greater or less than the chance of Thezerg upsetting hyvaa? What happens when fantasy gets blown out by proxy gates, do we think SKT can still take a win*? The second, and more important, problem is it relies too much on gut feel of how matchups will play out. The mind will always over-value most recent performance when looking at player strength. Past performance as a whole tends to be a better indicator here, and is something we can easily quantify.
*This is a bad example because eSTRO has an awful record in ace games, stay with me.
I decided to see how it would play out if we were to solve for each possible outcome, and then see which team had the best chances overall. There are 10 possible ways for a team to win a best of 5 competition (WWW, LWWW and on) so there are 20 total outcomes for a match. I made an excel spreadsheet that does each of these for me, it looks something like this:
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/heyoka/Predict/chart1.png)
The columns are the chances each team has of winning, and the rows show the different ways they have of winning. In this case, eSTRO has an estimated 2.2% chance to win this match by a 3-0 result. The bottom row is the total chances each team has of winning the match (it adds up all the total column). The 1 is to make sure the two add up correctly.
How do we get those numbers?
This all hinges on estimating win percentages for a single player vs player game. This is (unfortunately) the roughest part of this calculation, as the best way we have of predicting future performance is simply past win-loss. To do this, I filled in a small chart that has the total win percentages of each player vs his opponent's race. I haven't decided how to best go about this yet, if I can use total win percentages or if I should use league-specific stats. This one has stats from these players only during 08-09 proleague, except for HyuK. The chart looked like this:
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/heyoka/Predict/chart2.png)
The "set 5" numbers are ace match percentages through rounds 1, 2, and 4. There are ways to do this to get more exact numbers using who we know is likely to be an ace player, but they aren't developed yet and will be refined later.
To then judge how likely it is that either will win a given game, I used the log5 method. You can read an explanation here, basically it is this formula:
A - A * B
WPct
= -----------------
+ B - 2 * A * B
A is team A's winning percentage and B is team B's winning percentage.
Those calculations make their own little chart, that is referenced by the first set of percentages. That 2.2% chance of the game going 3-0 in eSTRO's favour is found by multiplying the log5 estro set 1, 2 and 3 together. It then goes through and does the same thing, for each possible outcome and then adds it together to get a team's total chances of winning the match. Using this method, it shows SKT with this lineup is 60% to beat this exact lineup. I think that number is probably a little low, but given that SKT was 2:1 vs eSTRO so far (at that point in the season) and that the end result was 3 games to 2, it should be well within a pretty small range of what it truly is.
Using a slightly less refined method than this, I picked something like 65% of winners in proleague through round 4. Thats slightly higher than I was doing with a more intuition based method, so while the results weren't phenomenal I'm pretty confident this is still better handicapping than most people are able to do. Last week I went 8-2 with it, with one loss being SKT vs WeMade (a clear favorite losing I think) and the other being MBC vs STX (a flaw in the system). Last was 0-3 TvT and I was unure how to accurately weigh him vs Sea, the match was close enough that it would have made a difference had I messed with it more and I think I probably under-estimated his true chances of winning.
Some other problems with this so far:
- It doesn't account for map balance at all. I haven't figured out to correctly weigh that, but it should be possible in the future.
- You never really get ranges outside of 40-60%. It really only tells you who the favourite is, which pretty often is something that is already commonly understood. It can produce surprising results when lower-tier teams play each other which can be cool.
- Individual player percentages are still rough. This will be fixable in the future, but developing a system that more accurately estimates those is going to take considerable time (probably more than I will ever have, realistically). This model will always have the problem that players with few stats are going to be difficult to quantify, and I'm unsure how to correct it. This method as a whole will probably be unable to solve that, which is unfortunate as many matches have 1 player who is a relative unknown (actually this could be partially solved if minor league was larger than it is but I don't see that happening anytime soon).
Actual Predictions
OK, now back to the predictions we made earlier in this piece.
STX SouL < Woongjin Stars (54%)
KT MagicNs < Hite SPARKYZ (62%)
Samsung KHAN (75%) > CJ Entus
Hwaseung Oz (64%) > SK Telecom T1
MBCGame HERO (61%)] > WeMade FOX
Air Force ACE (61%) > eSTRO
STX SouL < Hite SPARKYZ (60%)
KT MagicNs (62%) > Woongjin Stars
Samsung KHAN < SK Telecom T1 (54%)
Hwaseung Oz (55%) > CJ Entus
KT MagicNs < Hite SPARKYZ (62%)
Samsung KHAN (75%) > CJ Entus
Hwaseung Oz (64%) > SK Telecom T1
MBCGame HERO (61%)] > WeMade FOX
Air Force ACE (61%) > eSTRO
STX SouL < Hite SPARKYZ (60%)
KT MagicNs (62%) > Woongjin Stars
Samsung KHAN < SK Telecom T1 (54%)
Hwaseung Oz (55%) > CJ Entus
One final thing is that this isn't all that good for predicting ACE matches. Most ACE players don't have past records that are any good in indicating future performance and I haven't found a way to properly weight that yet. That being said, this specific lineup has an OK sample and I feel confident saying ACE is probably slight favorite in this match, but its still likely the less accurate percentage up there.
The Oz vs CJ match was particularly interesting, as it ended in basically a dead 50-50. I played with some different ways of weighting the data and Oz ended up edging out CJ, which seems accurate but I'll need more testing before I can say if it was correct or not.
In the future I plan on taking a similar approach to other team-format related question. I want to quantify things like the actual number of team wins Jaedong create for Oz. How necessary is it for each team to have one good player of each race? Which teams would be hurt the most by removal of a "1 race per match" rule, and who would gain the most? Does KTM's win expecation drop significantly if they play Flash in the 4th set? Can we optimize strategy of who to play on our team if we know which players the opposing team is most likely to send out? Can we eve quantify team depth?
I am confident most of these are things we can calculate to a small degree of certainty, and plan on going into it further through our friend results and standings. The future is wide open for theoretical brood war studies.
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