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On April 22 2009 08:24 Malongo wrote:For our clue analisis i want to remember people that BC writes his stuff a little different from Chuiu, here is the final clue post about the previous mafia from BC and the link to main page to that game + Show Spoiler +On December 27 2008 17:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Nevake Amaterasu Firebat, Soil, sun tan oil, asian women, sponsors, umbrella
ydg Camulus zealot, situational courage(bursts needed to move forward), word combinations, Y D G starts
clazziquai Yu templar, #1 fan, terran, cult member, electronic music, acid jazz, house
attackzerg Ba'al zerg, mutalisk, burgers, desserts, sandwiches, etc…
RebirthofLegend Kali scv, rebirth, man to legend, d-war: rebirth of legend, dragons, monsters
kuja900 Chronus lurker, starleagues, julyzerg, fighting,
Ver Nirrti scv, no hate, obscurity, Napoleon Bonaparte, knowing of what to do
Dinmsab Apophis asian, tributes, comander, empire, terran, vulture, hate, stork references
DecafChicken Anupus coffee, poultry, subway, lemons, professional, wood, defiler, plague
Capek Aries computers, foot stomp, professional but cockey, probe, robot, mechanical, intelligent
Malongo Sokar dragoon, protoss fan, twin or reflection, foreign language
Vigilantes
Mynock Hathor asian, tech jamming, glasses *edit* My post is irrelevant. But if you want to see it its in the spoiler. Ill read the first post and come with a suggestion but its quite unlikely that we can have too much from this alone. On a side note: we dont have info about blues or mafia, BC is all info hidden this time?
+ Show Spoiler +I believe we will never find out people's roles until after the game is over. Which means all we can do is go by kill power and the assumption that BC is using the same KP formula of mafia/2. This makes it dangerous for us since we can't easily catch mafia in a lie like last time with GF claiming medic. Although this makes it much harder to know how we are doing, this makes DTs much more important than in previous games, as it is one of our few ways of gathering information. DTs should keep their rolechecks for essential information, as we can't afford wasting them.
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CK: will probably not be wanting to use a RC. He can't use it until day 2, and wont get the results back till the next night: night 3. Which means the info can't be used effectively till the day after. I think the CK will certainly know which way the game is going by this point, so there would be no need to waste all that time if you could be killing people.
I think people are going on the wrong track with the CK. We're assuming there IS a separate goal for CK. I'm not so convinced there is, except for possibly a stay alive role. Nonetheless, I will try to present an option. If you look at the first part of the text:
You are a man for hire. You excel in information and death. You work for the best offer, and offer your services to all who can buy it, and your job means everything to you.
you see that pretty much this role is related to the job and only the job. I think its far fetched to think that the CK might have to have some kill objectives like kill one mafia and one DT like someone suggested. I feel from this sentence it is more likely that the CK MUST use his power every turn he can. Hence the bolded part.
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I think it would be highly unlikely and also highly unimaginative if BC used unit icons again.
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25. Camlito - he hasn't talked at all. surprising for a veteran player
26. Mynock - he is usually a pretty logical guy who is active
28. Versatile - VERY active during the election in Ace's Mafia World. Logical posts last game. Was pretty active.
36. Rage - come on man. You're TL staff. Gotta be held to a higher standard activity-wise.
Inactivity has been quite shocking this game, as seen by the post count. Your list seems ok, except Rage seems to be a bit of a stretch. From last game, Kennigit(DT), MasterOfChaos(mafia GF), and Rage (townie) were all quiet, so I'm not sure how much of a case we can make here.
Camlito was killed off last game the on night 1. Perhaps leaving him alone to see how long he lasts might be a good idea, since he is a prominent player who wouldn't be able to hide for too long.
I'd like to suggest RebirthOfLeGend as an alternative. He usually likes to cause chaos, and last game, when he didn't really post at all, he turned out to be mafia. Something we might want to try.
Versatile and Mynock seem like decent players from previous games who I wouldn't mind killing based on inactivity. But we really should get some activity here...I think perhaps the no DT check before night 2 is hurting town activity?
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On April 23 2009 10:39 LucasWoJ wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2009 10:23 semioldguy wrote:On April 23 2009 09:09 LucasWoJ wrote:
... we can't analyze behavioral patterns. If you were intending to do that, it'd be day 15 or so before any pattern could be noticibly distinguished.
Are you insane!? It doesn't take that long to start analyzing behavior patterns. Behavior analysis was far and away more helpful than clue analysis in the last game which didn't even get halfway to Day 15. mmmm, you took my post completely out of context, but I guess I was not clear. I was referring to the written clues. Every mafioso has his own behavior which one can analyze IN THE CLUES. If Bloodycobbler is to continue doing what I think he's doing and there are roughly 1 mafia: 4 townie, it would be like day 6 before he's described all of the mafia in THE CLUES. Because it's so difficult to determine whether something is a red herring or an actual clue, it would take a couple clue posts before we could be certain of our characterization. And yeah, I was part of that game. Behavioral analysis was what won that game for us. But that's not the type of behavioral analysis I'm referring to. It's analyzing the characters in the clue day posts.
Well, I dont really think there is any specific "behavior" that is tied to each mafia within the clues. While sometimes this does have something to do with it, most of those times that behavior is tied to a general theme related to the person's name/profile/whatever. Its not directly related to the actual behavior of the players.
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Sneaky BC:
Chuiu's post for mafia:
Mafia - Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in the mafia. You may not kill other mafia. Mafia killing power is decided after signups are closed and will be shown next to the mafia count in the player count lists.
BC's post for mafia:
Mafia - Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in the mafia. You may not kill other mafia in your family. Mafia killing power is decided after signups are closed and will be shown next to the mafia count in the player count lists.
We definitely have multiple mafia families. This also means we also have multiple DTs. I doubt that the multiple families were in contact with one another and sharing DT information because they probably didn't know there were multiple mafia. Even if they did, sharing DT info with other people is just asking to be suspected the next day. Regardless of whether or not the person you're sharing with is in the other mafia or not. Especially since now the mafia for sure know what's going on. Maybe the mafia knew what was going on because they had less numbers. Who knows. Bockit's death was most likely in hopes of killing a blue. If you were attacked please post that in the thread but NOT why you were saved.
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Edit*
When I said "This also means we also have multiple DTs." I meant multiple GFs. Sorry.
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It may be a little early to tell, but I would suggest that maybe the split between the first and second paragraphs means that the first is for one family and the second is for the second. If the next day post comes up the same way (two paragraphs separated by a line break) then I'd think its safe to assume that.
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^^Yes. The inactivity is stagnating this game. Not even discussion to lift JeeJee's hopes  When nobody is discussing things get bad. Very bad. I seriously doubt any of these are mafia. Either that or both mafia families are inactive/sacking their suspects/too afraid to talk.
@L: I'm guessing mafia would have known that there could have been two mafia families when they figured out they had a small group (5-6 mafia?) and low KP (2-3 probably).
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Goodies from a DT.
"only too see an uncomprehensable phrase before the tv exploded" IS a clue.
The "clumsiness" clue does not point to Qatol.
Enjoy.
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@GoodWill: What??? How does authorizing a double lynch make a lesser chance of lynching Qatol?
Anyway, I think we're getting a little misguided here. Just because someone was wrong doesn't mean they're mafia. Townies are wrong all the time. Don't think that since it happened last game it will happen this game. Please dont get single minded. Discuss the options. Then maybe lynch Qatol if it is the BEST COURSE OF ACTION.
Clues are weak. Please dont vote on them. Writing clues with Chuiu for last game, I would know its pretty much impossible to link someone to the correct clue. Do not make support for your argument by saying, "Oh look! I found 50 billion clues pointing to player 'X'!" No you didn't. You're just making up clue analysis for the person you want lynched. Unless you found all those clues coming from different day posts. Even then not all the mafia are in every single day post. Remember that. Also there are no such things as "weak" and "strong" clues. The clue either makes sense or it doesnt. If it makes sense, its not always right. If it doesn't make sense. IGNORE IT. Carbon Monoxide does not cause a burning sensation in the lungs. It isn't a link to Monoxide. If a clue sounds obscure, don't write it off as a "weak" clue. The clues are not dog treats that the host throws at you to make you happy. They're not going to be giveaways. They are most likely going to be obscure. Thus getting to my next point: Malongo's proposition. I'll go through it point by point.
1. Not that useful. Curbing Qatol's voting power does not decrease his power by that much even if he is mafia. But those extra votes sure can help us when we need it.
2. Like I said about clues. Please don't randomly lynch based on them. We probably won't even be able to agree which clue to lynch on.
3. It sounds good in theory, but also could cause problems. Especially since you want clue based lynches. Your assumption backing your plan is that we can afford to mislynch. Sorry, but we can't. Unless mafia magically start hitting each other. Even then, it isn't such a good idea to randomly lynch based on clues. Especially since the mafia could influence who we will lynch if they can manipulate our understanding of the clues. Obviously the town is in enough chaos that this its probably that the mafia can easily manipulate the clue interpretations. If you want to make random lynches, then it would be better to just make a random list generator. At least mafia can't manipulate that.
4. Um we only have 3 double lynches. And the way your plan goes we won't be able to dent mafia count using double lynch. We'll only dig ourselves into a deeper hole.
5. Maybe. But the list sounds logical as it is now.
6. No. Goes with what I've already said.
7. We probably only have 1 DT left. Maybe two. But if so, the DT has already contacted people. It would be useless to keep that information bottled up. The DT is already exposed.
8. Yes. Although other analysis would also be good. Although clue analysis isn't the best, we need town discussion. So bring it on peoples.
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On May 04 2009 12:49 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2009 12:27 GoodWill wrote:On May 04 2009 11:01 Malongo wrote:
1- Qatol starts voting as a single townie. I don't know much about the rest of the "declaration". But Qatol needs to go today, and his 3 votes on Quickstriker is the only thing keeping him alive. Town, if you are reading this and your vote is not on Qatol, you need to change it now. I'm not sure about double lynch, if we get enough votes for it (it certainly doesn't look like we will get it just from the sheer amount of inactives alone), the second one should be Quickstriker. Since authorizing a double lynch today would mean less chance of lynching Qatol, I'm not going to vote for one today. The only thing I can do about todays voting is to ask for Double Lynch tomorrow. You dont seem to understand our position really. Even if we lynch Qatol and flips red we are indeed screwed. Not voting for a Double Lynch means we wont use the power ever. Lets suppose a great position for the town: mafia trade 2 hits tonight: 2 less mafia 1 less KP, 5 townies death (counting the CK). Then we are 35 people alive and about 9-11 mafia. One more lynch and five more hits. We dont have time thats for sure. I rather fail at double lynching instead of waiting in my living room for the game to end. The second reason is that actually lynching non voters and inactives forces mafia to come foward. If you can convince people to lynch Qatol i dont really care too much i wont change my vote to lynch him or to defend him. Im playing this game trying my best to HIT mafia. Lordweirds clue fit almost perfectly and thats why im voting him, because his behavior is as fishy as Qatol but his clue matchs better. Whatever happens in todays lynch i cant do anything else, im fighting for tomorrow. Vote Double Lynch.
CK can't hit tonight. We don't know what the mafia numbers are so stop speculating. We can use Double lynch even if the mayor is dead. The mafia might be in favor of double lynch also if they think they can avoid the chopping block.
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On May 04 2009 16:21 Malongo wrote:
Great. Qatol i hope you understand you are next. Medics: Dont protect anyone on Qatols medic list. Find someone you think that mafia will target and protect him. I could ask for protection but i dont need it. People i think will be target tonight:
- Caller
- Rol.
- Milkymoo.
And hell yeah, vote double lynch next day and lynch Qatol.
Maybe we should point out that Ace and Showtime were on the list. They were town. Malongo is overreacting?
On May 04 2009 16:57 Ace wrote:I love collective stupidity 
Amen.
Which reminds me I should change my profile after this game's over...
2. Malongo this is not your town.
Which brings me to my main points.
1. Ver. Although it is true that lower KP needs to be compensated somehow in a dual mafia game, it also is a bad assumption to think that mafia should have around 8 mafia. I could go into more detail about this but this is pretty irrelevant right now. So for now, lets just ignore the mafia numbers because it won't help us yet until we start getting mafia numbers down.
2. Lynching Qatol on that bandwagon was pretty useless to me when it was discussed during the past few days. But Ver raises a good point. If Qatol is mafia people would likely vote in groups for/against him. I have not seen a distinct voting pattern in either of the last two days, but I've come up with this:
3clipse
coolcrimefighter
GoodWill
t_co
These people voted against Qatol today (Day 3). These people also voted for Qatol for mayor. So if these people are mafia then they're on the mafia team opposite Qatol. I find it unlikely that they would have voted for Qatol if they were in his family in such a close lynch. Of these, 3clipse has fit both the clue and the behavior analysis. However,
3. The list brought up seems to bring more to the table when talking about Qatol and lynching. Lets see if Qatol votes for one of the people mentioned. If not it would be a pretty compelling case that he is mafia. Not only because of previous behavior, but it would just be a logical lynch. Lynching Qatol now would be logical. If he's mafia, that's great. More information for us. If he's green, we're screwed but I'm not sure if Qatol can be town unless one of the mafia is purposely not voting for him. There's way too few votes against him for him to be town. Otherwise I'd think both mafia families would be after him considering his unfavorability. CK comes to mind as an option here. Either way, we still need to be discussing ideas now. Not leading a bandwagon.
@ L: Mafia wouldn't be working together if they knew each other/suspected each other. It doesn't work. Since they know they can be killed any time by the other opposing team, you'd pretty much have to kill them if you know them.
End of my thoughts for now. Lets wait till the day post to see who exactly to accuse. But knowing Qatol won't be able to vote for himself I think it might be a good idea to discuss who we should be asking him to vote for. 3clipse comes up to my mind.
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I only like to assume things when the individual axiomic assumptions have merit. In the current instance, even if ver is right and we're dealing with 15 mafia players with a kp of 6 combined, if mafia cannibalize each other early, they will lose. There is no way of winning the game if mafia start hitting each other.
Your conclusion rests on an assumption which cannot be the case, so I can't agree with your argumentation.
What???? Are you trying to SOUND smart? How is there no way of winning the game if mafia hit each other? Are you mafia?
I was just responding to your comment:
Second you assume that the families are content with their situation regarding the town and aren't working together.
Maybe I didn't phrase it in the best way possible. Both mafia families can't work together since they would be forced to kill each other if they ever got the feeling anyone was a member of the other mafia family. The mafia cannot risk exposing themselves to the other mafia to "cooperate". Hence, this assumption would be correct unless you want to assume the mafia are idiots. Sorry if there's a misunderstanding here but you are not making any sense at all right now.
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Also people we need to step up the discussion. Discussion = good. Its night and mafia have to send in their kills. The more we talk the more names that come up. We can hugely influence the mafia kill decisions by bringing up good suspects. Suspects that perhaps one family has to kill for fear of being killed via accusations on their own family. Not the time for arguing if Qatol is mafia or not. Find some target-able players who might be mafia.
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Durr, the town wins instantly and the mafia die. From their perspective THEY CANNOT WIN if they start killing each other. That means they WON'T. You, however, have assumed that mafia will not trade information because that will automatically lead to such killing and I've said that's not the case because its not a smart move from either mafia team to start shit with the other.
Not exactly. Obviously if the mafia kill each other its bad. Lets suppose we have mafia family A and mafia family B. Now lets say they exchange information or somehow know each other. Sure they can say "lets not kill each other and lets work to kill the town." Fine. But that's idealistic. It sure isnt in the best interest of mafia A and B to kill each other, but it also isn't in mafia A's best interest to ALLOW mafia B the OPPORTUNITY to take free shots at mafia A. Or vice versa. Just because its in their best interest not to kill each other doesnt mean they wont do it. Its a dilemma for them because they can't know for sure the other mafia won't backstab them. In other words, mafia knowing each other is bad and doesnt work for them because they can't trust each other. It is in mafia A's best interest to kill mafia B if they can avoid being killed off first. Obviously, they'll take that opportunity. So will mafia B if they get the chance. Which means that yes, the mafia cannot win if they kill each other. But that is not a fate they can control. It is the side effect of knowing each other. Unfortunately knowing who each other is doesn't foster a nice relationship like you described. It is in mafia A's interest to kill off mafia B before B kills A. How do you stop that when mafia A and B somehow know each other? You can't. If they cooperate, at some point one is going to turn on the other. If I was mafia I wouldn't want to take the chance of being stabbed first. Nobody does. And honestly mafia A would do fine against the town by itself without cooperation from mafia B. The only way the mafia can work together is if they don't know who each other are. I hope this is clear now.
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Told you we'd see each other in heaven Bye bye.
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Yeah Caller. Like the mistake in your game. That you never told anyone about ^^
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"-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I obviously wouldn't lie to you since you're out of the game. But it's people who trusted their roles to Qatol for whatever reason, and people thinking they can pin down Mafia by looking for Freudian slips in PMs are the ones responsible for where we are now. Unless Mafia starts killing each other, we're done for. I'm really annoyed by the Town this game."
Funny, eh? Btw, Incognito was sure I'm Mafia even before he started probing me with PMs. And then he leaves a msg behind, advising Town that I'm as strong a suspect as Qatol! LOL, this is probably THE worst Town out of all 7 Mafia games we've had so far.
On May 08 2009 08:50 Mynock wrote:
"night 3 actions
Vivi rolechecks mynock"
Haha, I knew it! Incognito told me about me being checked and turning up green. Yet Vivi decides to not tell me anything about it, and instead tell it to Qatol. asdasfasf!
Well now you know why I thought you were red. I thought Qatol's DT was fake and thus Qatol's "DT" + Qatol + Mynock were all mafia. Unfortunately I was wrong. But seriously:
From: Incognito
Subject: Mafia
Date: 5/5/09 15:53
I'm 80% sure I will die tonight. Please actively pursue:
Ver
3clipse
Mynock
HeavOnEarth - maybe
Qatol
Chuiu - CK
From: Incognito
Subject: Re: In case I die:
Date: 5/5/09 14:18
Also if I die Mynock and Qatol are VERY STRONG suspects for mafia.
You're the only innocent on there o.o
5/6 there.
IMO, the game should not be "thrown", at least not in this game based on the reason I posted above. If Town throws the game right now, there really is no winner, as the two mafia family are separate parties, and would make the game totally pointless.
Well they're really not. What they're not telling you is that the mafia don't have to kill each other in their win conditions. So basically the town thinks there's two mafia families but really they act as one. But have 2 GFs. And more KP when you factor in CKs. And since we didn't know that it was pretty bad. Especially since that's pretty much what my Day 3 plan revolved around. Oh well. I got screwed talking to two GFs before the game even started.
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Also its sad how we get a more activity in the last 24 hours than in the last week combined.
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EPT
