TL Mafia 5 [Game Over]

As I believe there's a high chance I will die tonight (medics, mafia, prove me wrong), I'm going to make as much information public as I can.

Up on the guillotine next is Scaramanga.

This analysis rests on many points and can only be wrong if an incredible strong of coincidences have ocurred. I hate having to make these so long and indepth but a) I want to everyone to see how it's done so they can emulate it with other suspects and b) the town this game has frankly been quite stupid overall and I don't want random questioning of something that is very concrete or worse, people ignoring it (quite possibly mafia driven). Here it goes:

1) Scaramanga is normally a very active person. In BC's game he was active all game both publically and privately when he was a green townie. However, in Caller's game, where he was a jack, he stayed publically silent in an effort to lay low (only jack). This was noticed and he died first day. This game is very much the same. Scaramanga has only posted a simple vote for BC and then a few times more after a certain incident happened and his name came up. More on that later.

2) Because Scaramanga's public silence just proves him being either blue or red, it is of course not sufficient to stop here. What's interesting is that because of either a mistake by himself or by Chuiu (we can't know), Scara cannot be blue. This is because he roleclaimed BG to BC before BG roles should have been passed out (more later).

Bodyguards are only drawn from green townies. Rationally speaking, it's plain stupid and a newbie move for a legit BG to come forth and privately tell the sheriff that he's a BG (no gain considerable risk). Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis. For Scara's side or not, there is another person who roleclaimed BG but I don't know who it is. This is a lot of evidence already, but oh yes there is more.

3) While Scaramanga has been quiet in public, he has been quite active behind the scenes. We can safely rule out external factors for his inactivity through this. Now here is the proof:

I msg'ed Scar to get more information on this matter. Here's the response I got:



Now consider these facts:

-He has been messaging BC nonstop on msn. Clearly he has the time, clearly he's interested. In fact he has so much time he's going through crazy efforts to set up a wow account.
-He was so up to date with the thread that he messaged BC that he was his bodyguard before the roles were supposed to be sent out (again, whether Chuiu or Scara messed up is completely unknown. Don't assume anything here, focus on the stuff we can know).

Thus, it is abundantly clear that he lied to me in a cop out response. While townies do lie sometimes, he has no reason to lie here.


4) The moment BC revealed that BGs couldn't have been given yet, Scara immediately went silent. If he was innocent, he has no reason to do this. He can just say "well Chuiu made a mistake tehn cause I'm BG." But he didn't. He knew he was caught (or had some crazy coincidental emergency). Furthermore, he did not come back. BC says that Scar talks to him every few minutes, making a long break like this extremely strange. Something doesn't add up and it should be pretty obvious at this point.


5) Finally, there was a particular incident in the thread. Ace had labeled Scara as part of the 'Zodiac Braves,' one of twelve townies to get protection. However, Scara tried to downplay this. In Ace's words:



Ace has a very good point: the only reason Scar should need to say anything would be if he was mafia. If he was green, why bother (and he'd be active). If he was blue, he'd want the protection the list afforded him. If he was mafia...he wouldn't want to be singled out. Guess which is the odd one out.

Summary: Yes, there is a possibility that Chuiu just messed up and Scara is an innocent somehow flagged in an absurd number of coincidences. However, the far likelier story is that he is just mafia and has messed up in so many ways.

BC can post the logs if necessary (sorry I had just reinstalled pidgin and apparently it doens't come with autologging).

Ver, I read your post. Some thoughts:

"Bodyguards are only drawn from green townies. Rationally speaking, it's plain stupid and a newbie move for a legit BG to come forth and privately tell the sheriff that he's a BG (no gain considerable risk). Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis. For Scara's side or not, there is another person who roleclaimed BG but I don't know who it is. This is a lot of evidence already, but oh yes there is more."

You also mentioned that I am a suspect for saying that he does not qualify as one of the twelve experienced members. It wasn't that I was trying to disqualify Ace's plan (that is to say, immediately after I had posted that, you responded, and it seemed that you assumed I didn't understand Ace's plan (I did)); it was more out of principle. I'll explain why. In order to do this, it's best to look at the above quote from your post. I think you're flawed in what you're saying. "Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis." You're dead wrong here. I've played in two games with this guy, and I have come to the conclusion that there can be a no more impulsive player in this game. Quite frankly, he's an idiot. He's disrespectful, and, in my opinion, he has served nothing but as a waste of time in this past several games. He not once let me have a civil PM with him, mainly because of the way I decided to post in the thread (and also send out PMs to all). That was unacceptable. Everyone else, whether they were new or experienced, were not this rash, this impulsive. Simply put, I agree entirely with your analysis with the exception of this point. He is that impulsive. He is that stupid. He's played the game for so long, but he's still characterized in my book as a guy who is willing to be bend the rules to win (he was willing to check roles several games ago by logging into others accounts -- that to me is unexcusable). Therefore, my conscience, by principle, I had to say that he doesn't belong on that list. It would have been a disgrace to place him that. That's simply all. It was more of a passing point (and I guess a snipe at him, so I apologize). I'm not trying to take him off the spotlight; in fact, if it were up to me, he would be killed at the start of every game, so that his nuisance would not obstruct the integrity of the game. That, however, is unfeasible.

All I'm trying to do is question that which you consider to be rock solid. You're welcome. If people, in the expectation that there are irretrievably infallible, post their behavior analysis of every person they suspect to be mafia, and we follow through with those words, I'd be a little afraid. In fact, I'd get incredibly suspicious. You mentioned that you think I subtly try to cause confusion; no, I'm trying to make sure that we're not wrong, because, if that is not done, then we might as well just follow through with semioldguy's initial kill (simply use a random generator every day for lynching).

Edit:

Thank you for a useful post, redtooth! I've been waiting for one since about page 20!