TL Mafia LXXIV: Storm Mafia 3

So, maybe some of you aren't convinced that I am Town, but I believe that Scum have no qualms like that and I am probably going to bite the dust here. While I was wrong on both shoe and Tube, I feel that I was well-grounded on my reads, which people actually have agreed with - seeing that Tube was lynched and shoe was read two-ways based on the same point I brought up. I might've said one thing too much on top of all that, which might seal the deal even more. Anyway, this is why I am writing this post - I believe I have played a strong game and that I am now going to go down because of it. So I gotta leave you with some reads to work with.

My proposed Mafia team is:

Koshi
ritoky
rsoultin
Ticktock/Stutters695/Tumblewood/VayneAuthority aka lurker-class scum.

Now the reasons:
For Koshi they are simple and people have picked up on that. First, the list. It's utterly insignificant, unhelpful, but great to look like he is doing something. He also said something about a plan and he - as we can see in the thread, abandoned it without any word on what the plan was and how it was supposed to help Town (What we can gather, his plan was to post the list only and only that, which, as you can guess, I am not going to Town-read at all!). Koshi's played a very wishy-washy game. He voted lots (ritoky, Alakaslam, tumblewood, sandroba, Tubesock), voted lots of flimsy evidence and has defended rsoultin, while townreading people seeing her as scum. He himself admits that. It looks like a good setup to be able to back-pedal on his vote on Tube when things get heated: I was just wrong guys, like look: I was townreading the guys against her! It is especially damning that having such townreads did not make him reconsider his stance on rsoultin. One of the most damning things for me though, besides the wishy-washiness is how he has played the game during the night: this is the moment Koshi is the most active, fearless about the results of the Night kills. He is above that. No worries - Koshi is going to be here on D2! How does he know that? Well, he knows where the KP is going. He knows that KP is not heading his way, unless his team partners decide to be silly pranksters! Look how contrarian to everything he is and how little effort he puts into it: he has those reads only to sow distrust among us.

ritoky:
His play was questioned before. I once decided that his play was just dumb, but dumb in a Townie way. But after the D1 has ended, we saw no follow-up. No redemption. He made us look at him and then disappeared, while believing he is near confirmed town! I understand that RL reasons are there, but come on, if you plan something, you have the time. So it's a contradiction. Remember that ritoky was defended by rsoultin by the very start and many people around the time of his fuckup have come into the thread and started to throw acussations my way. RSO defends him, Koshi makes no case against him besides saying he is Mafia. The votes weren't on him, only lots of suspicion around. All he has done was to introduce chaos into the thread, his teammate rsoultin dipped too much anyway. Handling by her has been acknowledged and she was up as one of the lynch candidates.

rsoultin:
Her showing, especially handling the ritoky situation (hardcore defense) her absence for lots of late D1, the vote on me feels like she tried to avoid any responsibility with the lynch. She was fine with what was happening and she was the only one to vote together with Tubesock on me - but made no effort to defend him and herself from killing them.

The lurkers... well... it's easier to get disinterested in a game if you are scum, because you know that it needs more effort to work out.

1) Her read on LS -


This is LS's comment immediately upon signing up for the game. He expressly states that he is deliberately and consciously trying to change his play; regardless of if he is being successful or not, he has openly stated that the way he is playing is more considered and deliberate than before. As a result of this, people should naturally be wary of using meta reads on LS or old metrics since he is clearly trying to break those notions. Rsoul does not heed this, she has been hard defending him for tonal and meta reasons since his first 5 posts; the exact type of reads she should be wary of making when LS is trying to break those exact reads. On top of that, she has shown no indication of judging if his gameplay outside of this immediate read is town or mafia. The entirety of her read is based on something she should be skeptical of if she were town. The read is bullshit.

2) Meta - In her previous game as mafia, of which I was hosting, she tunneled very hard on 1 person with minimal reasoning and tried to shove the narrative down everyone's throat; constantly repeating the same lines, never re-evaluating, and never adding anything in terms of why that player is mafia. She is doing the same here with me. Here are quotes from the previous game:













It continues, you get the picture. In her previous mafia game, she made an early read based on shape's "tone"; never re-evaluated or considered any of his other play throughout the remainder of the day, then just kept repeating how he was mafia and how he was mafia for that. Meanwhile shape had ~6 pages of content. Now I have less pages, but it is not like I have a deficiency of reads or content in my filter for which to consider; however much like she did with shape in her previous game. She has made a read based on 1 thing, not evaluated anything else about me, then just spam repeated "lynch rit". It is precisely the same pattern as her previous day 1 as mafia.

3) She is neglecting her own read on me - This one probably won't work for anyone else, and I don't have a quote to support. But rsoul had previously reached the point with me (before she switched more to hosting than to playing) where she believed every time she read me town I was mafia, and vice versa; and had surmised flipping her read was the best way to read me. It was then successful for her for I think 2 games? So why did she stop doing it here? She has a read that is historically successful, but elects to neglect it and vehemently neglect it simply because I made a play around angle shooting VT role names? Not buying it.

4) The votes on her - I know I am VT, I am extremely confident that sandroba and superbia are town. I think SL, VA, and shape have a decent to high shot of being town. That is 6 town.... Now even assuming that my town reads have gaps and there are sneakster mafia, I think 1 of those at most is mafia. 5 town at least on rsoul is a really good indicator for me.

5) Lack of Scope early - Rsoul had no real inclinations to try and determine anyone's alignments early. She just had no read on nearly 3/4 of the game and wasn't doing anything to try and inform reads either. I made a post on March 24th and 12:56 PDT calling her out for her lack of scope and depth in her reads. Here are her only reads prior to me making that post:

LS, vivax - town for meta
SL - maybe town for meta
slam - policy -> okay with lynch
shape - mafia cuz omgus
rit - mafia

over 24 hours into the game, a player dead, and 6 reads that she has committed to, I would say 4 of which are simply meta, tone, or have 0 depth to them. The only 2 she really went to length to explain are vivax and me. Sorry, but rsoul has much more depth to her play and tries to figure out a lot more people's alignments as town; She has additional information that is why she isn't trying to solve the game as hard; and I think that additional information stems from being mafia.

6) Activity under pressure - After votes begin piling up on her, she begins saying things like "you're not lynching me today" and "you're wasting your time discussing me today"; and begins spamming activity as a response. However, rather than trying to direct that activity and a lynch onto basically the only person she has show a deep and passionate scum read on; she defers to a low hanging fruit (who just posted something so dumb it is probably town). It feels like she is targeting "the lynch I can get" rather than "the lynch I want/believe in". Townies always aim for the lynch they believe in and consult practicality or feasibility later; to me, rsoul is considering saving herself and the lynch she can get first, which is not a town mindset, it is survivalist and almost certainly from mafia.

7) Too many wafflers/defenders considering her play - This is just my own heuristic or metric, but there are far too many people who have no opinion or a positive opinion of her that I grasp or they have explained than her play thus far has warranted.

+ Show Spoiler +

There's a couple other tiny things, but people don't like my grammar reads or nitpicking word choice shit and it hardly convinces anyone so I will just keep those points to myself and leave this here. She's very VERY likely mafia.