EPTnever played an online mafia before but friends keep recomending me to try it
Newbie Mini Mafia LII
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
never played an online mafia before but friends keep recomending me to try it | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
p.d: No idea what we should be doing on day 1. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 18 2014 01:08 OnceKing wrote: IAmRobik: You say some posts by Lord Tolkien are bad. Why are they bad? Just pointing out random things and calling them bad isn't going to help us. N1k0: You say you've been lurking but you've only got one read? What about the enormous mess between Lord Tolkien and myself?? What's your opinion on that situation? Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself. Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia. Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing). OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone. For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 18 2014 09:10 Lord Tolkien wrote: Fine. For you cal, I'll do one last analysis of it, and be extra critical of his post. I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning. Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation. My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me). You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it. Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red. I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far. But it again is just me, and people don't believe me. I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation. Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it. I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched. I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment. Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away. I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time. Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours. If you were so sure of Cavalihno being an obvious town why did you vote for me instead of voting Tolkien which was the way you could save the obvious town? especially since you were the last one to vote. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 19 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: n1k0 n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here: 1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why? 2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote? 3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? Sorry i want able to respond earlier, but here we go. 1) I feel like right now we should be looking hard at the lurkers, Valenious, Beneather and myself mainly because of the lowest amount of information in order to form reads. Valenious Right now i feel like hes the most likely to be scum, this is because i feel like his posts have been the less comitted ones out of all (mainly being defensive ones), he avoided jumping on any of the 3 likely lynches on day 1 (myself, LT, Cav) and kept his vote on Robik, he could've saved Cav by switching to me or LT (who he said would've been his other choice with Amiko if he didnt vote Robik). + Show Spoiler + [..] Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros. ##vote IAmRobik [..] LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment. The only townie move out of him i saw was pushing me to post my thoughts. Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious but not too much. He too like valenious voted for someone out of the 3 2 vote lynces which i see as a scummy move trying to keep uncommited, when he casted his vote and posted his case on Valenious he was not likely to be lynched since this was the first acussation being thrown at Valenious there wasnt much time left on the day for there to be a 2 vote switch onto Valenious. You asked me to list you three potential lynches for today but i dont have anyone that i read as likely scum outside of Valenous and Beneather at the moment. I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him. 2) Im not what post were you referring to. 3) As i said in my suspisions of Beneather and Valenous i feel like scum would love to manage to get a misslynch without commiting at all on any of the likley lynches. I have a soft town read on you at the moment, the fact that Cav flipped green doesnt change my opinion of you because i feel like we both read him as scum because of the same reasons. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 20 2014 06:36 Valenius wrote: ebwop.. My name doesn't have an o in it.  sorry | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
Could you please clarify the wording on this following quote? Are you referring to LT or OK, when saying your wrong? I presume OK, but it changes my read on that sentence. You are right, i was referring to OK. Still on n1k0. In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. N1k0, if you’re agreeing with his post you either didn't think the numbers through, or blindly thought he was posting something logical and went along with it. I never said i thought it was a good play, i just said it led me to think him as town, since if he was scum and got lynched on day1 it would increase the town read on OK instead of a scummy read which was what LK was going for at the moment.(The only way i feel LK can be scum is if he and OK are both mafia and were bluffing really hard but i don't find that likely because it would result on a day 1 mafia lynch (especially if there are only 2 mafia, which i find more likely than 3). Town read on Cavalinho: My read on Cavalinho was correct, as stated in my post.. Feb 18, 04:34 You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him? | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 20 2014 06:48 Valenius wrote: I would however like any form of back-up on this point. I feel like I've contributed spades more than Beneather. Am I alone in this thought? You have posted more than Beneather, but most of your post have defensive/ filler instead of giving your opinions (mainly on the topic of LT vs OK), im not saying Beneather contributed much more than you, i just feel like his post on you was a lot more committed than your posts. Of course this was before your big post tho. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 20 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote: I answered this question in my previous post. What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town? | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 20 2014 12:54 Lord Tolkien wrote: Why do you have a strong town read on me? If I were stepping back from myself for a moment, I wouldn't have a strong town read on myself after Day 1. Middling at best. Your opinion on day1 of being ok with a self lynch as long as i gave information on OnceKing who you thought at the time was scum i see as the towniest move out of day1, even if i didn't think it was a good move at the time (which i explained more on a previous question from Valenious + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=16#309 Also, why do you read theDragoon as town again, and why did his vote on me impact your read so? . His vote on you looked odd to me, specially since he based it on part of what he thought was a slip on your part. He later explained his reasoning on this. + Show Spoiler + I called it a slip because I wasn't really thinking of the mafia QT and the fact that he mentioned it could imply that he's been using it. I might be reaching with this but that was my thought process behind it. He has done nothing to lead me to believe him to be scum outside of this. On February 20 2014 12:47 Amiko wrote: on n1k0 I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz". Its true that i have been using other peoples opinions in order to mold mines there's no point me saying i haven't, this is on part because the reads i felt more comfortable about on day1 were wrong. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Your opinion on day1 of being ok with a self lynch as long as i gave information on OnceKing who you thought at the time was scum i see as the towniest move out of day1, even if i didn't think it was a good move at the time (which i explained more on a previous question from Valenious + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=16#309 ebwop: Also you asking me why i had a town read on you also strikes me as a town move. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
##vote beneather | ||
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