WCS Europe Season 3

Round of 8
Recap

5th Place Matches
Preview

Semifinals
Preview

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Youtube

by Premasiri

In Brief

MMA 3-0 Nerchio
Vortix 3-1 Stardust
MC 3-1 Targa
Genius 3-0 duckdeok

Genius – keeping the tradition alive

Genius held true to tradition in two senses today: He made sure there would be no returning champion to WCS EU by eliminating Duckdeok, and also held true to his somewhat cheesy, aggressive roots. While game one of his series against duckdeok panned out as somewhat of a macro game, with duckdeok even having a considerable lead at one point (in upgrades, tech, worker count – you name it, he had it), a sneaky mid-game voidray transition saw Genius inexplicably rout duckdeok’s better upgraded, higher tech army to take the game. The game, and the momentum as it turned out. Continuing his confident stride, Genius opted for a cannon rush on Yeonsu for game two. After dealing a disgusting amount of damage with some clever probe micro, it wasn’t long before he demolished the remnants of duckdeok’s base for a swift victory in game two. And game three. With a single DT getting 10 probe kills despite duckdeok’s oracle standing helplessly by, Genius had only to march in with a relentless two base follow-up to secure his place in the semi finals tomorrow. In terms of analysis, there’s only a couple of noteworthy things to say. Firstly, Genius looks to be on form in PvP, and MC had better watch out. However, Genius’s style is open to abuse. Risky, gambit based play that requires the enemy to make a fatal error in either their scouting, or their defensive posture. The closest we got to seeing this in action was game one against duckdeok – with a solid, risk-free defensive opening from the season two champion, Genius’s build looked pretty silly. By that same token, it was the lapse in scouting over the next five minutes that allowed Genius to once again make a risky play, this time paying off. Ironically, this style of aggression is exactly what would have foiled the MC of yesteryear – instinctive, aggressive and risky himself. However, despite his... diminished performance this year, the MC that’s weathered the storm of Heart of the Swarm thus far is, I feel, better suited to take on Genius tomorrow. A slightly more considered, all-round approach is what’s needed, and MC looks to be able to provide just that.

MMA – Blizzcon champion 2013?

Any viewer of tonight’s games against the Acer Terran Ace’s teammate, Nerchio, would agree that they were ugly. Game one on Yeonsu saw MMA play simply a level above Nerchio. Not in a showy, drone-roasting way, but in a mistake-free, solid masterclass of top level TvZ. Immaculate reaper control saw him begin to chip away with a couple of free drone kills. Meticulous scouting of Nerchio’s frustrated Roach-rush and not underreacting saw him build on this with a flawless hold, and a punishing follow-up marine shove at Nerchio’s ill-protected third saw MMA accrue a ridiculous 50:1874 unit’s lost ratio. That kind of sums up his style: not necessarily overextending in order to do the most amount of damage possible, but playing crisply to ensure taking the least damage possible. That wouldn’t be a rule without its corresponding exception, and game two on Polar Night was to be just that – a good old 12-12 proxy rax complete with bunker walloff. The only thing worth mentioning here is it shows that MMA isn’t afraid to exploit a given map to its utmost. Going for his proxy, cheesy play on a map with an easy three-bunker wall-off was clearly a calculated move that he’d make only on Polar Night. Clearly shaken in game three, Nerchio made the mistake of taking the game two cheese for a chink in the armour of the Korean Terran – and with a well-prepared defence of a roach-baneling all-in, MMA waltzed into the semi finals. Again, a perfect example of MMA’s secure, damage minimising brand of TvZ. Maybe it helped that he’s teammates with Nerchio, but I’m leary of overplaying the often-touted “mind-games” and supposed familiarity this brings –top players (barring perhaps Kespa team-house environments) are likely to be playing just as much with everyone on the ladder as they are in-house with their own team mates. Similarly, it feels a disservice to attribute his 3:0 to something so... underhand. Let’s just all agree with Nerchio himself:


MC – Comfortable.

For the overwhelming majority of his quarter-final series against Dignitas’ Targa, MC seemed to be in a comfortable position. In both game one on Whirlwind and game two bel’shir vestige, there seemed to be no point at which Targa was able to hold a significant threat over his opponent at all. Game two ended only barely in MC’s favour in the scrappiest of late-game engagements, featuring almost a full compliment of endgame units on both sides (alas, no tempests!), but all throughout the midgame the Korean Protoss felt to be in control. If anything, MC’s weakness today seemed to be his strongest point in days gone by – engagements. On the one hand, this could be down to Targa being a mastermind of pitched-battles – game three on Derelict watcher certainly supports this, with the Norwegian Zerg taking his token win of the series by crushing MC’s expeditionary force with a perfect 270 degree surround. The final game of the series was effectively over before it began – a successful cannon rush by MC crippled Targa beyond recovery on Frost, and despite Targa’s best efforts, a semifinal place for MC was not to be denied. Cannon rush aside, the safe and solid all-around style that MC showed today is exactly what he’ll need to overcome Genius tomorrow.

Vortix – looking confident and intelligent, and aggressive.

Game one on derelict watcher essentially captured the feel of the whole series. With solid zerg fundamentals, Vortix easily held the double stargate harassment of his Korean opponent, Stardust, then made a couple of very intelligent reactive plays. Correctly working out that the heavy phoenix production came at the cost of a significant ground army, Vortix traded a handful of otherwise useless roaches for about 15 probes, as well as emptying the phoenix task force of all its energy in the defence. By immediately following up with a large hydra push at Stardust’s defenceless third base, Vortix was able to capitalise on the temporary impotence of the otherwise effective Phoenixes, and simply end the game with a crushing swell of units. With similarly smart usage of infestors to lock down the blink stalkers of his opponent in game two, Vortix was able to survive a weird base-trade. There’s a set of assumed, tried and true reactions for most problems a Zerg player will face, but Vortix seemed completely unafraid of toying around with extremely situational combinations today. Mass infestors are quite often a mistake against protoss – you effectively sacrifice your standing army for one that requires your opponent not to have significant amounts of either storm, colossi or archons – usually not a wise assumption to be making in HotS. Maybe it’s gratuitous to be praising a pro-gamer for reacting perfectly to a given situation in their chosen game, but Vortix’s brand of reactive zerg today was inspired.

By Plexa

Nerchio vs Stardust

It is likely that this series is going to be a stomp for one of these players, but it's difficult to tell which one. The reason this is likely to be the case is because Nerchio and Stardust both have a unique approach to this matchup and that asymmetry is likely to result in one style dominating the other. Despite the ugliness of the Nerchio/MMA series, I have enough confidence in Nerchio that I believe he's going to be on the better end of this stomp.

Stardust did not look impressive against Vortix -- his only win coming from some (somewhat trademark) zealot aggression. Otherwise he looked thoroughly outclassed by the Spanish Zerg. I infer from this that Stardust is in a bit of a transitional period between his metagame changing style which he defeated Jaedong with at Dreamhack and whatever comes next. Point being we're not at that next metagame changing build and he's looking vulnerable.

Nerchio, on the other hand, has a very interesting take on ZvP. He favors heavy mutalisk play which he has put to frighteningly effective use. Smart players open heavy phoenix against Nerchio as to force him into the less potent, but still scary, hydra/corruptor/bane composition (yes, it's a thing). That said he's been doing this for some time and looks very comfortable when executing this strategy.

So, as Stardust is in a bit of transitional phase and Nerchio is comfortably executing his favorite ZvP strategies, I expect Nerchio to look very dominant in this series.

Prediction: Nerchio 2-0 Stardust

Targa vs duckdeok

I see similar a similar stomp happening in the duckdeok vs Targa series, but this time for very different reason. This matchup will naturally have duckdeok as the aggressor and Targa as the defensive player -- both players will be comfortable with this arrangement. duckdeok, however, is not known for his PvZ and has looked very shaky outside of PvP recently. Normally his unpredictable aggression would work in his favor, but this is one series where I think that works to his disadvantage.

Targa is a Zerg who naturally prefers defending in ZvP. His upset win over Naniwa, for instance, was him defending Naniwa's strategies and then taking that advantage through to a win. We saw similar tendencies in his series against MC where he was content to take MC into the longer game and try and beat him there. That didn't exactly work out, but it's a strong indication of what he wants to do in this series.

I expect this series to be defined by all ins. The question being can Targa hold them off or not. I have enough faith in Targa to give him the edge in this matchup.

Prediction: Targa 2-1 duckdeok

by Zealously

MMA vs. Vortix

No matter the time that passes or the things that happen in that time, MMA will always be remembered as a TvZ maestro of high rank. It does speak volumes in MMA's favor that even now, some 20 months after his reign ended, my mind instinctively assigns the advantage to MMA. The Son of Boxer's journey back to the top has been a long and hard one, and even now there are some questions as to whether or not he will ever regain the aura of invincibility - his series against Nerchio in the semifinals was not the most convincing show of skill MMA has ever given us, but gone are the days - still fresh in memory, when MMA would crumble at the slightest touch of pressure from Zergs. Pitted against a Zerg like Vortix, one would be tempted to doubt the power of MMA's aggression and indeed his TvZ as a whole. Had this semi-final taken place a month ago, I would as well. But with the consistent displays of skill MMA has given us over the last few weeks, I'm growing increasingly convinced that there is no player in WCS EU capable of reliably taking out MMA in a longer series. Given what the ex-Slayers Terran has accomplished over the last few weeks, he has to be riding a wave of momentum, powered by the knowledge that he's once again competing for championships and not just the rights to stay on the outer edges of the leagues.


But even with all this in mind, Vortix is still a formidable opponent. The days of being "the best Brood Lord-pusher in the world" may be over for the Spanish Zerg, but his days as a contender for Europe's top spot aren't. WCS EU began with the Premier Qualifiers, where brave Europeans attempted to stop the Korean onslaught. Now, with mere weeks until Blizzcon, only one European remains standing. Naniwa is at the mercy of luck and the eliminations of others, whereas Vortix alone is the European with a shot at moving up through the rankings and making it to Blizzcon in the end. Being matched up against MMA in the semifinals is perhaps the worst thing that could have happened to Vortix' chances, but he should know that both the Season Finals and the Global Finals, should he get there, will be even tougher. Vortix is the underdog against MMA, make no mistake, but he has remained a contender for top European in WCS all year, showing both remarkable consistency and high peaks along the way. By taking down Stardust in his best matchup in the quarterfinals, Vortix has shown that he's in some of the best form he has been in all year in at least one match-up. In weekend tournaments, momentum is everything. If Vortix can ride the momentum and confidence boost that beating Stardust must have given him, he has a fighting chance against MMA. There are various all-ins that could help swing the match-up in Vortix's favor, particularly the ones that pull MMA out of his comfort zone where he, although still formidable, is much less dangerous than he used to be. Unexpected roach aggression can catch anyone off-guard to take a map, on any level, but on this level a win on the first map may be all it takes for Vortix to gain the upper hand on MMA, gaining the advantage of being able to try unorthodox builds on the back of an extra game to lose.

But in the end, with the skill displayed by the MMA over the last few weeks and the ease with which he wears down his opponents through aggression, he has to be seen as the clear favorite to rekindle the flame of the old power and move on to the finals.

Prediction: MMA 3-1 Vortix

MC vs Genius

In a battle between two of 2012's many Protoss GSL runner-ups, we'll either be treated to a great match-ups as two of the masterminds of the Protoss race face off, or we'll continue the recent trend of bopping in high-stakes PvPs. Though they differ greatly in approach to both practise and indeed, approach to progamer life in general, MC and Genius certainly seem to have some kind rivalry going between them. MC went on record stating that although Genius' ID indicates that he's a smart guy, his brain is actually trash. The response?


Fresh off such high-level trash talk, this match-up is the most important one for MC since his highly violent match against IdrA and the most important one for Genius since his fated GSL finals against DRG in early 2012. Never mind the fact that there is a finals on the line - with both having already secured their spots at the Season 3 Finals, I wouldn't be surprised if the pride in this match - the right to leave the ESL studio that the other guy was shown his place, plays the most important role. For players like MC and Genius, both known to be fond of both ceremonies and trash talk, to be handed an opponent prepared to throw a hadouken back at you adds another layer of pressure to the mental game that is PvP, a match-up notorious for its volatility.

In terms of pure game play, Genius' dismantling of duckdeok in the quarterfinals made a statement about his current level in the mirror match-up. Most would say that duckdeok is a player at least on MC's level in PvP, and with how easily Genius made duckdeok look a fool in the Ro8, it's hard not to pin Genius down as the favorite. He is by no means guaranteed to advance - even if Genius is flat-out better than MC at PvP right this moment, MC is and will always be the more experienced traveller and series planner. He wasn't given that much of a chance against the so-called master of rock-paper-scissor, duckdeok in season 2 and still managed to take the series to game 7, and he does have a convincing 2-0 win over Babyknight as his only PvP result in season 3, which although it's not data we can necessarily draw any meaningful conclusions from, indicate that MC at least hasn't forgotten how to PvP.

The biggest question in this match is what exactly the players will have planned. Both have played PvP (either in WCS or in various qualifiers) recently that's up for studying if they see fit, but there always does seem to be a next level mind game that isn't immediately visible to the viewers that dictates how longer Protoss mirror matches end up playing out. MC and Genius in particular have shown that they are both good at playing that kind of mind game, and this match will show us who the true old-school Protoss mastermind is.

All in all, MC vs. Genius can end up being a stomp for either player depending on both what they can cook up in the hours prior to their match and if either player ends up on the receiving end of unlucky blind-counters (Nexus first on Yeonsu doesn't count as bad luck). Weighing more recent results heavier, Genius seems like a slight favorite based on his match against duckdeok alone. But MC says he's sure that Genius' brain is trash, so he might know something we don't.

Oh, and expect ceremonies. Anything else would, after all, be a tremendous disappointment.

Prediction: Genius 3-2 MC

Writers: Premasiri, Zealously, Plexa
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Banner photo: ESL
Editor: Plexa.