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Newbie Mini Mafia XLVII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
August 31 2013 08:34 GMT
#101
/in
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-03 18:51:33
September 03 2013 18:51 GMT
#150
EDIT: No more posting
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 03 2013 22:36 GMT
#164
Regardless of the math, a day 1 lynch as the norm gets people talking. No lynch = no incentive to give up information. Unless everyone is super cooperative and gives great information, we lynch.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 03 2013 22:53 GMT
#168
Has everyone got their QT yet? You should have received one by now.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 03 2013 23:01 GMT
#173
On September 04 2013 07:59 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2013 07:53 Chairman Ray wrote:
Has everyone got their QT yet? You should have received one by now.


bar the troll, how much off forum mafia have you played?


1 game forum mafia, 1 session face to face mafia.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 03 2013 23:16 GMT
#180
A lynch on day 1 incentivizes people to avoid being the scummiest looking player since that player WILL be lynched
A possible no lynch on day 1 doesn't achieve this incentive since unless you completely crumble and blurt our something incriminating, then you don't get lynched

So under the first case, as long as every genuine townsperson is being very active and contributing, then mafia is forced to do the same. Even if we lynch a town on the first day, we're still on a good start. If not every genuine townsperson is active or contributing, lynching them isn't a big loss.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 04 2013 18:32 GMT
#255
On September 04 2013 23:36 infii wrote:
Chairman Ray:

Show nested quote +
On September 04 2013 08:16 Chairman Ray wrote:
A lynch on day 1 incentivizes people to avoid being the scummiest looking player since that player WILL be lynched
A possible no lynch on day 1 doesn't achieve this incentive since unless you completely crumble and blurt our something incriminating, then you don't get lynched

So under the first case, as long as every genuine townsperson is being very active and contributing, then mafia is forced to do the same. Even if we lynch a town on the first day, we're still on a good start. If not every genuine townsperson is active or contributing, lynching them isn't a big loss.

Took part in the early discussion about Day1 lynch with 2 posts saying the exact same thing.
Also I disagree a bit with you here, because you don't have to actually execute the lynch to get people talking. A lynch threat is more than enough. Don’t you think lynching a less active townmember early on is a loss?
Because they could still improve on Day 2 for example.


Since there's already been a few people suggesting they would rather no lynch than risk killing a quiet townie, then I'm gonna go ahead and say it: yes, there's a possibility of voting no lynch on first day. We threaten to lynch on the first day, and in the back of our minds we think about the option of no lynch. However the threat of a first day lynch no longer is a threat if people say it's just going to be a threat. By vocalizing that it's just a threat and we're actually allowing quiet people to live the first day, then the mafia will know that they have that option. So what we're all supposed to do is pretend that lynch is mandatory until the very end to make people think they need to talk, and then at the very end, we decide what's best.

Now that this info is out there, I think we should actually do mandatory lynch. myRZeth has not said anything yet, and if that keeps up, then I will definitely be voting him. Who's in agreement?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 04 2013 19:03 GMT
#262
On September 05 2013 03:43 LoneMeow wrote:
While we're at it:

Chairman Ray, ignoring myRZeth who hasn't posted even once, who do you think is scum and why? And what do you think about the Umasi/HolyFlare argument?


I am currently working on my scum reads right now, and will post them in a sec.

As for Umasi/HolyFlare, one of the best scum tactics is to have two scum ragging on each other the first day. It monopolizes the discussion preventing productive town discourse, paints them both as very pro town, and in the case that one of them turns mafia, there's a strong argument for the other one being town. Because of this, I am not willing to read them both as town. Right now, there's a possibility of both being scum, both being town, or one being mafia, so lynching one will not give us ANY headway, I say keep them both alive on day 1. Based on who gets lynched and who gets killed by mafia, we may be able to eliminate one of the possibilities.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 04 2013 19:07 GMT
#263
On September 05 2013 04:02 killerdog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2013 03:57 LoneMeow wrote:
On September 05 2013 03:48 killerdog wrote:
Chairman Ray
-Hasn't been very active yet,

This one post is a huge elephant in the room when it comes to him
On September 04 2013 07:53 Chairman Ray wrote:
Has everyone got their QT yet? You should have received one by now.


The way he phrased it makes it seem unlikely that he's mafia slipping up.
As someone else said, he might have been trying to trip up a mafia, or just screwing around, but I would very much like him to go on record saying why he posted this just so it's dealt with and doesn't cause misunderstandings later.

Other then that he hasn't said much other encouraging threatening to lynch people which seems logical enough.

Not enough content for a read though, hope he posts more tonight.


The post you quoted is just pure WIFOM either way; town trying to trip scum, or scum trying to look like town trying to trip scum. I'd prefer to just ignore it, for now.


I assume WIFOM means useless, but as a general request, can people explain what acronyms mean the first time they use them? Another one was FoL or something, and I don't want to misunderstand anyone just because I misread an acronym. (also mylo/lylo or something.)

And i agree that it's a post which we shouldn't focus on, that's why I would like him to just post what he meant by it ASAP, so we can forget about it. It just forces him to put his cards on the table now, while also preventing it from popping up again later and causing trouble. Given that he seems to be here right now, why not get it out of the way rather then leaving it in the corner to fester.

Gotta go for a while, but I'll be back in a bit.


The post was just an attempt at and easy first day mafia lynch
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 04 2013 21:07 GMT
#270
On September 05 2013 05:28 Umasi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2013 04:03 Chairman Ray wrote:
On September 05 2013 03:43 LoneMeow wrote:
While we're at it:

Chairman Ray, ignoring myRZeth who hasn't posted even once, who do you think is scum and why? And what do you think about the Umasi/HolyFlare argument?


I am currently working on my scum reads right now, and will post them in a sec.

As for Umasi/HolyFlare, one of the best scum tactics is to have two scum ragging on each other the first day. It monopolizes the discussion preventing productive town discourse, paints them both as very pro town, and in the case that one of them turns mafia, there's a strong argument for the other one being town. Because of this, I am not willing to read them both as town. Right now, there's a possibility of both being scum, both being town, or one being mafia, so lynching one will not give us ANY headway, I say keep them both alive on day 1. Based on who gets lynched and who gets killed by mafia, we may be able to eliminate one of the possibilities.


......so in other words, you prefer to ignore the entire thing because one or both of us might be scum or town.

Here, ray, let me say this much
a good scum tactic is to look town. (shocking, I know).

Show nested quote +
Based on who gets lynched and who gets killed by mafia


I agree with the who gets killed by mafia, kind of. If I get shot, it slightly implicates holyflare because of my read on him.
However, based on who gets LYNCHED?
HOLYFLARE HAS SPECIFICALLY KEPT HIMSELF AWAY FROM ASSOCIATIONS.
CLEARLY.
Like, did you even pay attention to anything? That was the original point, he didn't want to share reads.

That paragraph is pretty null, as in you said little of worth. Why do you think that pressure, however obvious, is counterproductive discourse?


My intention was not to suggest ignoring the entire discussion. My intention was two things: firstly, to the few people suggesting that either you or Holy may be town (or both), I disagree completely and I would like to consider both of you just as much as everyone else. Secondly, your discussion with HolyFlare and everyone else set up a lot of variables and a few equations. This is the best thing to carry into the second round since we have almost enough information to deduce pairs of people who cannot both be mafia. This is why I'm suggesting lynching either you or holyflare first turn is unproductive for town.

I will give my first set of reads. When HolyFlare said that he was withholding his reads, he dug himself an obligation. By the end of this day, he must make a play justifying that he withheld his reads with good reason, or else he's mafia. If we see his posts and decide that there's no reason why he didn't give his reads in the first place, I think he's a good mafia candidate. When you started attacking HolyFlare and threw in a vote, I don't think at that point there was any good indication that HolyFlare is mafia. I think that either both of you are mafia, in which case the discourse was counterproductive for town because you misled everyone, or you are town, in which case you were both pressuring HolyFlare and seeing who would ride the lynch train. This gives me a reason to ease up on the possibility that you are mafia and HolyFlare is town.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 04 2013 22:48 GMT
#289
On September 05 2013 07:35 Lord Velocity wrote:
Nvm. This post was irrelevant, let me fix my keyboard brb in a few hours


Irrelevant post? Fixing keyboard? How do these two things even relate?

Did anyone see the post before it was edited?

I actually think we had a slipup.

#vote Lord Velocity

What was the post before you edited?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 04 2013 23:54 GMT
#301
On September 05 2013 08:43 Umasi wrote:
Voting vel is dumb, do not do it


How so?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 00:12 GMT
#306
when did you drop your keyboard? what was the damage?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 00:40 GMT
#310
On September 05 2013 09:28 Lord Velocity wrote:
I just think it was a rookie mistake tbh I can't really say believe me, it's up to you


It could be a rookie mistake. Umasi didn't want to vote you, so he probably thinks you are safe. Do you think Umasi is town or mafia?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 00:51 GMT
#315
Why do you say Umasi is town and Blurry is neutral?
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 21:00 GMT
#417
I'm not afk, and here. Since there's pressure on me now, I'm going to have to reveal some of my intentions.

Not all of my posts thus far have been genuine to my feelings, but rather baits to get certain reactions. After thorough analysis, I have concluded that HolyFlare and Umasi are both town, and I am about 95% sure of it. I will post a very long analysis during the nighttime since there's only 1 hour left.

I didn't vote Lord Velocity because I wanted him lynched. I voted him to pressure him into giving information. When Umasi pressured him early on, he paniced a lot. I pressured him again in case he would give out something incriminating, but he didn't. The reason I kept my vote on him was a bait for mafia. Since there's many votes on myRZeft, I needed to but a little buffer on someone else just so that mafia still thinks they have a chance at saving him by triple voting on someone. They have not fallen for that and it's 1 hour remaining. MyRZeft himself is not even joining a bandwagon and just voting on his own. This leads me to believe that myRZeft is not mafia.

From all this information, I would urge you guys to not vote myRZeft. Also don't vote HolyFlare or Umasi, which I will explain later (I promise)
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 21:14 GMT
#433
I am confident that Lord Velocity is a good lynch target.

Firstly, his slipup. This doesn't give any tells on his own, but the way he reacted to it, and other people reacted to it does. I see LV's slip as an easy mafia bandwagon target. One of my intentions of voting him was to potentially start a mafia bandwagon. If 3 other people jumped on him as well, there's a good chance we got our mafia right there. However only killerdog jumped on him. Since no other mafia backed him up, I am inclined to believe killerdog may be safe. And since there was absolutely no mafia bandwagon on Lord Velocity at all, there's a greater chance that he is the mafia.

My second piece of evidence is on how Lord Velocity reacted to it.

I'm so so so so so Sorry people. I said that asking for reads wouldn't be scummy really unless you were trying to bandwagon on their reads, which could subsequently be scummy and realized how dumb I sounded and got embarassed, and the keyboard thing was because I dropped my laptop and had to fix my board itself because it has thin keys. And I was unaware of the no editing rule, I must have missed it. But voting for me(Killer and Chairman) is not the smartest thing. and seeing as you two hopped on it right away seeing an easy lynch but nobody else voted. And I don't even know what QT means, and I fled for an hour or so because I wanted to eat pizza with my sister who is moving out for college. I'm terribly sorry if it was suspicious and I myself have become suspicious of Killer and Chairman in the process.


This is killerdog's accusation of LV:

Right now I'm seeing a Mafia who posted something he shouldn't have, panicked, and has fled the thread until he can contact his coach/talk to mafia buddies in qt to work out how to do damage control, and until someone comes up with a convincing alternative my vote is staying.


When killer accused LV of hiding in qt, he had qt in lowercase. How did LV know to capitalize it? Also, the meaning of qt was clear as crystal just from the context of killerdog's accusation. Not only that, in this entire thread, qt has been mentioned many times. LV has been active. If he didn't know what qt is, why didn't he ask earlier? It was also defined earlier as well. But the strongest case comes from putting yourself in LV's shoes. If you are town, would you phrase it like that? If you are mafia, would you phrase it like that? LV's testimony of not knowing what QT is sounds exactly like someone who's deliberately feigning ignorance.

From these piece of evidence, I would suggest that LV is in fact mafia.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 21:19 GMT
#437
Sorry for the misunderstanding. I posted quickly without proofreading since we're almost out of time.

I was suggesting that killerdog did not capitalize it and LV did. This means that LV either knew what QT was or saw it earlier. In either case, it points to LV feigning ignorance.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 21:25 GMT
#441
On September 06 2013 06:19 Holyflare wrote:
also why does that clear umasi and me seeing as umasi was vindicating him and moving the topic to somebody else?


It doesn't clear either of you. When umasi vindicated LV, I was under suspicion that both of them were mafia. Umasi has a reputation of harping on people, so protecting LV before we got a single word out of LV raises some red flags. However when I looked back on their earlier conversation, when Umasi harped on LV the first time, LV was cracking up. The tell was that his posts are less coherent and lacked punctuation. If they are both mafia and planned it all out, would LV panic and rush post like that? That's one factor leading me to believe that Umasi legitimately believed that harping on LV for that mistake was not a good idea.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
September 05 2013 21:51 GMT
#471
Guys, I'm town, and this is a mislynch. Vanilla town if that matters. Time's almost up, and there's a train on me, but nothing to back me up. If I was mafia, then obviously team mafia would do something to save me right? Such as lynch train on myRZeth. I'm sticking my vote on LV, and if the two other people on LV as well are mafia, we could easily save me by all switching to myRZeth, right? But we're not doing it, because I'm not mafia. I'm also confident that lynching myRZeth is not a good idea either.

This is a mistake. There are three mafia among the people who are voting me, and the are hiding behind Umasi and HolyFlare, who both have a lot of power. I know I can't convince the three mafia to get off me, but I'll try to convince the rest of you. I'm town, everything I've done is to help town, and I've spend a lot of time and effort looking deep into posts, filters, interactions, even down to capitalizations. This is not something mafia will do. I am town.
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