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Rain vs. Bomber
Semi-Final Two

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Twitch

by CosmicSpiral

What happens tonight will be remembered forever in posterity. It will be a fearsome war the likes that no man has ever seen before. The sea will boil the color of blood, the bowls of wrath will be unceremoniously fumbled and spilled upon the earth, and BitByBit will rise from the grave upon the back of an undead SCV.

Of course, I am referring to the battle between Bomber’s Law and the Artosis Curse. If Artosis decides to use his Satanic powers of misfortune to champion Rain (and the chances are looking favorable), two fundamental and opposite forces will be deadlocked with the fate of creation at stake. Rain should win so he is assured to lose; Bomber must disappoint when the hype is highest and the chances most favorable, and what can be more favorable than a guaranteed win? It’s like if gravity and electromagnetism become worst enemies or Jaedong used some common sense in a ZvP. The walls of reality might come crashing down and suck us into a vortex of contradiction.

We can only hope the Tasteless blessing saves us.

Cloudy with a Chance of Colossus

Stumbles and close shaves have been the hallmark of SKT_Rain’s current run in the OSL. After breezing through his Ro32 group in his usual style, Rain ran into some unexpected trouble against unlikely challengers. First outplayed him fair and square in two macro PvP games and hyvaa nipped at his ankles throughout the Ro16, forcing Rain to struggle in a 2 - 1 victory. Thanks to poor group planning, Rain was able to defeat his teammate Fantasy in the final round, force a tiebreaker, and come out in first place after the initial two tiebreakers ended in more ties. His Ro8 series against Supernova was heart wrenching and boiled down to Rain playing against type. No one would’ve guessed that 2 base all-ins would decide everything but Rain seized the opportunity, winning on Anaconda with a sentry/immortal/archon bust and finally cutting the head off with a stalker timing on Newkirk.

Coming into the Round of 4, Rain arrives with a slight battle limp and a wild look in his eyes. This is a Rain that looks different, distant from the man who made his reputation as an unstoppable macro monster. When Maru scrolled through the cheese list and shorted Innovation’s circuitry with melted Roquefort, it was incredible but ultimately not shocking. Maru’s passion for the cheddar was well-known and Innovation admitted that he responds badly when things aren’t going his way. Tonight I expect Bomber to execute the same general gameplan he’s equipped since WoL (besides a few widow mines). He will expand early, mass up a considerable army, and hammer blows onto his enemy until one of them cracks. I don’t know how Rain will approach the series and that invites a delightful sense of unpredictability. Will he use his prior series for mindgames? Does he remember that interesting 2 base DT expand build from his old GSL series against Mvp? Or will he play his regular game and challenge Bomber to try those SCV pull shenanigans against a KeSPA protoss?

Reaching the finals is the final strike against any questions of Rain’s relevance in HotS. He hasn’t won a tournament since WCS: Asia and has been overshadowed by the likes of Soulkey, Flash, and Innovation. Other protosses like sOs showcased flashier builds and more interesting strategies that grabbed the attention of SC2 fans. Rain has remained the rock that is largely ignored but weathers the test of time. He was one of the best players in SPL and was the sole reason SKT could even reach the playoffs. A trip to the finals affirms he is still one of the best in the world; back-to-back OSL victories moves him into the realm of legend.

Lex iniusta non est lex

When Bomber`s law activate?

— 최지성 (@Startale_Bomber) July 25, 2013

Mix a pinch of dread, a sliver of modesty and a huge helping of excitement. That may adequately sum up ST_Bomber’s feelings tonight as he takes on the most important match of his career. Tonight is the latest chapter in the saga of Bomber’s struggle to become the man that we expected him to be. Perhaps this is the point where he stops being the perpetual champion-in-waiting. Or maybe this is when he decides to remind us why “Bomber’s Law” is a phrase used without irony.

Fans have been waiting so long the mere thought of victory invites cognitive dissonance. Ever since his victory over Mvp in the Code A finals, people waited for his inevitable rise to glory. It was an obvious conclusion, especially after winning MLG Raleigh, that we were willing to endure some lackluster results afterwards. Multiple Ro16 and Ro32 appearances in the GSL showed some consistency but he almost always petered out before exiting group stages. He found much better results in foreign tournaments that suggested that his promise never left: 6th place at MLG Orlando, 2nd place at Red Bull Battlegrounds, 4th place at IPL5, 3rd place at MLG Fall Championship. None of these look bad on paper and most players will never claim anything close to one of these accomplishments. Yet it reinforced the idea that Bomber would fall, except now he would fail at the moments when he was closest to absolute victory.

Bomber’s name has been inevitably tied with losing no matter the tournament or the situation. Over time it developed into an endearing connection. Bomber became the adorable underdog we can empathize with, a hard worker who never complained about the improbable sequence of failures that had come to define his career. A part of him may even fear winning tonight and the cares and expectations that will come in the finals. Nonetheless all of that pales next to the promise that comes with passing this final hurdle. Once you’re an OSL winner, you will always be remembered as an OSL winner. Everything else was merely the journey to reach that goal.

Result:

There are two identifiable factors here that sway the match in favor of Bomber. He shares some similarities with Supernova in terms of getting a fast third CC and relying on double drops to catch the protoss army out of position. However, Bomber is more rigorous with scouting robo follow-ups and takes his third only when he knows no attack is coming. He gets a much larger margin of error in terms of how many workers he can lose while being competitive: even if he loses 10-12 SCVs, Bomber can counterattack and depend on his third orbital to compensate. He also trades better in terms of harassment since he can replenish workers at a faster rate.

In addition, Rain showed his cards early against Supernova. 2 base timings are nothing new in the PvT matchup but people never associated them with Rain. He was supposedly the type of player who happily gave up an economic advantage in order to reach the late game, and opponents abused that in the past with extremely fast thirds and teching heavily. Now Rain has shown he is willing to kick you in the teeth instead of gently suffocating you. Furthermore he did these builds on obvious maps: Anaconda, Newkirk, and Star Station. It doesn’t take a genius to realize they all have fixed positions and relatively short walking distance between the naturals.

Meanwhile Rain’s main advantage is putting a distinct timer in every game. Bomber rarely ever plays beyond 3 bases and frequently employs the SCV pull when he feels it’s time to strike. Rain can exploit Bomber’s style by taking a fast third and fourth base, forcing Bomber into the late game and into a desperate attack that Rain is prepared to defend. However this assumes Rain will weather the storm until a third base becomes relevant and Bomber has shown he is apt in the way of medivac aggression. Despite Rain’s advantage in the late game I think Bomber’s form and his inkling towards early game safety will lead him to barely prevail.

Prediction: Bomber 4 - 3 Rain