Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII

On September 29 2012 04:29 corrosion wrote:
I'm just going to address the "fight" between Darth and Kush. I'm going to focus on Darth for now. Looking more closely into Kush's contribution is something I think should be done well ahead of lynch time.

I'm actually going to start by telling about some thoughts I had after reading my role PM. I was trying to figure out what players town should be focusing on. I had obsed NMMXXVII, and came to the conclusion that it might be reasonable to go after any player except Kush. I figured that Kush was going to make a lot of posts anyway, so I was thinking that we could get a good analysis of him without any early pressure.

One of the first things Darth did was to antagonize Kush:

+ Show Spoiler +

I'm thinking that this could easily be an attempt to start a fight that would result in derailing the thread. Kush responded the way I expected him to, and these two posters exchanged arguments back and forth.

In the middle of this, Darth made a remark against lurkers, but quickly changed his focus back on Kush.



I don't see why he should make this comment at this time, since it wasn't going to get looked at while there was a fight going on.

Shortly afterwards, Kush makes his supposed scum slip. Darth jumps on it, and shortly afterwards he posts about his previous mafia games. I've watched the game where he played cop, and seen that he and Shady argued a lot on D1. So I was thinking that this seems to be Darth's town meta. But I also asked myself why he did post about his previous games at this point in time. Maybe this was all intentional. Suppose he suddenly remembered that game. He might not have wanted people to look at those games earlier, but now he realized that if he posted them he would be able to establish a town read on himself.

I'm not sure if this is a strong case against Darth at the moment. I would like some input from the more experienced players here. If Kush hadn't made that slip, I think the derailing argument would have looked strong. Now it doesn't look so strong, because we've actually gotten new information. I'm not saying that I'm sure the scum slip is an actual slip, but if it is and it results in a succesful lynch, I think town got very lucky. Scum usually wouldn't slip in such an obvious manner.

His cases against Debears and Alsn are something that might reveal useful information, but I've not studied them closely yet. I still think that Kush seems more suspicious when everything is taken into consideration but with all the focus that has been on him, I'm sure someone else can post a decent case on him before we need to consider our first lynch.

On September 28 2012 11:39 debears wrote:
As I said, I want a quick look at you first. Second, there isn't much more to add to what you said about it. It does give off the impression of extra information.

On September 29 2012 05:05 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Making a Kush case at this point is kind of like trying to kick in an open door. Like Alsn I was thinking even before the game started how to handle Kush. People say he has a scummy meta and I guess that's true to an extent, but there are certainly some significant differences. Some of those things were pointed out by Hapa in the XXVII aftermath, advice Kush seemed to just shrug off (eh, he kind of went OMGUS on Hapa). Hapa points out the difference in how Kush defends himself when he's town, here's his defense against drazak's case in XXVI (as town):

+ Show Spoiler +

Kush tends to OMGUS whether scum or town, but the way in which he OMGUS differs. When scum he's confident and aggressive, when town he's more diplomatic and logical. In this game, the former certainly holds true.

Other than that, town Kush seems to focus scum hunting (check his early XXVI filter) while scum Kush is focusing on defending himself and posting tons of fluff (he even mentioned in the XXVII Mafia QT that his strategy was to post a shit ton). In this game his scum hunting is pretty much non-existent while he's been defending himself and posting fluff just like in XXVII.

The most significant piece of information in this game though is his scum slip and his explanation. The slip is significant. I have a really hard time believing that the mother of all OMGUSing would be calling his attacker townie. Unless, of course, he's in possession of extra information and it's a slip. His defense isn't very convincing.



Of course he's been using "people" and "person" a lot in past games, but this post from XXVII is a good example on how he views his attackers:



It's also worth pointing out that drazak attacking him made Kush suspicious of drazak (post quoted above), he did the complete opposite of making a town read on him.

On September 29 2012 07:44 kushm4sta wrote:
debears I saved you bro...scumteam 4 lyfe

On September 28 2012 13:53 Djodref wrote:

@debears

First of all, my name is Djodref and not Djoref

Let me know answer your points against me



Also I liked your case against me so thank you for pointing what was wrong in my posts. I'm starting to have a town read on you.

On September 29 2012 05:29 Z-BosoN wrote:
All right, I went through debears filter now, and I'm confident he is scum. Let's go through this more carefully now.
His first post:



First of all, his "I want town to win!!" post telling town to use their coaches. He then FoS's Kush, due to the fact that he's playing a similar game as the one he was scum. He says that DP + kush flame war is bad for the town, but doesn't attack Darthpunk, probably because he finds kush to be more scummy looking. Now, from a townie perspective, what does debear want? Information in order to lynch kush, as he pointed a FOS mostly based on a meta read. But suddenly, towards darthpunk:



He is defensive towards kush. That's not how townies think. While I agree that DP is a bit overboard on kush, I don't agree that he failed to give arguments as to why he thinks that is so. A townie with a FOS on someone will want to deal with the arguments first. He doesn't do that, and suddenly becomes defensive on Kush. He says, later:



He is more bothered by DPs certainty than by his actual arguments. Inconsistency #1.

He then comes up with two cases. One against me, and one against Djoref:




Notice the similarity between the two. He attacks us for asking questions (later on denies that they provide any discussion whatsoever), and falls into the same "semi-active lurker" category he's sniffing about. I will ignore the quality of his arguments, which I personally think are horrible, and will look more towards their similarity.
From his case against me:





From his case against Djoref:





See the similarity, especially the bolded part? It seems that he has this "semi-active scum" cake recipe that he is using to sniff out scum. He also calls us out on our posting quality, in my case saying it is bad.

I won't address his next post towards me because I've already done so, and because it doesn't increase his scumminess , as "bad cases =/= scum" (although it pisses me off).

Anyways, now to the main stuff. He has a case against me and Djoref, for pretty much the same reasoning. Yet, check out what his next post on Djoref is:



Wtf??? What ?? Where is his case against Djoref?? He goes from a scummy-looking sheep with one liners to a "townie who should pm marv for help"? Could he have forgotten that Djoref was one of his main suspicions? Inconsistency #2

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Note that I no longer think that his defense of SDM is scummy. I've gone over that a few times and I admit that it can also come from a townie perspective.

To summarize, here are the main inconsistencies in his play that scream to me SCUM:
1) He had a FOS on kush, then hurried on to defend him, in the manner I've shown above. I cannot fathom for the life of me having a FOS on someone and suddenly feel like I have to address an exaggeration on that person before I actually address the case.
2) He completely absolves Djoref for absolutely no reason. Townies do not throw around suspicions only to insta-drop them.
3) The other supporting arguments I've shown above.

debears is SCUM!

##vote debears