EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XIX
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Unfortunately, I'm at work and can't spend much time on the game. I haven't really been obs'ing either, so right now I have no reads whatsoever. Tonight I'll read as much as I can and start weighing in with some real opinions. If I'm not mistaken, D2 ends in about 7 hours, yes? I guess I'll just be putting my vote on the majority candidate. Again, unfortunate, but better than modkill, right? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
First, some information about me if you are interested (you should be) + Show Spoiler + This is my 4th game of mafia on TL. I have previously played in Newbie Mini XIV, XV, and XVII, each time as a Vanilla Townie. I really love playing mafia and therefore am usually quite active. I will be active in this game as well. However, due to work and sleep, I can only devote significant time to the game between 6PM and 3AM EDT. So you can expect all my significant posts to fall in that time slot. I hardly know anything about the ABL, and I don't know anybody here. I am a townie. Of course, I don't expect anyone to believe me so easily, so I hope to demonstrate my towniness with some successful scumhunting over the next few days. My thoughts on the game so far + Show Spoiler + I just finished a quick read through the whole thread. Lynching the jailkeeper on D1 really hurts. There's no denying that we are in some serious trouble, especially if we can't lynch scum today. But if we can, finding subsequent scum is usually easier than finding the first. So it's really important to hit scum today. The thing that stuck out most to me from D1 was the bandwaggon on Anacletus. Of course it's easy for me to say this now, but I really don't see what was so suspicious about him that warranted such a landslide of votes. Not only that - but several players gave some very sketchy (or nonexistant!) reasoning for jumping on the bandwaggon. So I will be focusing a lot of my attention on trying to catch scummy behavior on the Anacletus bandwaggon. Now I will start reading through some filters and posting my thoughts on different players in turn. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Scummy points:+ Show Spoiler + The main thing that I see as scummy about him is that his scumhunting has been quite lackluster and bandwaggony. On June 29 2012 08:12 Intact wrote: I know it's a bit early to try and make a read, however my short list of possible scum is topped by Myles atm. Primarily because it seems like he wants to promote inactivity. It's a loose read but someone had to get this started. Intact states his suspicons of Myles and gives a meh reason. Myles already had some suspicion on him at this point. Intact's tone is also non-comittal and self-conscious. I see this as slightly scummy, but can also be consistent with a noobie townie. On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote: I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. In this post, Intact basically just repeats the suspicion of Fencer that possibly both JH and Anacletus are mafia. Now, we know that both of these players are town. Intact looks a bit bad for throwing some bandwaggony suspicion on two (now-confirmed) townies. On June 29 2012 21:37 Intact wrote: My first guess was Myles, however he is no longer on top of the list(although I will keep an eye on him). I'm leaning mostly towards Analectus, his posts contain very little of value and seems more like a way to avoid being branded a lurker. And like I said before I have seen scum play that is similar to what JH and Analectus is doing. Here Intact bandwaggons with several other players' opinion on Anacletus. He gives one, meh reason. Soon he will vote anacletus. I think Intact was the 2nd vote on Anacletus. This also reflects badly on him. Townie points:+ Show Spoiler + On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote: I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus. This post gives me the strongest read of any of his posts, and it gives me a townie feel. Intact's posts don't paint him as a very bold character. But here he is - calling out Promethelax. I think Promethelax was one of the more active posters D1 and also had quite a bit of thread influence. It takes some serious guts for scum to attack active townies (assuming Promethelax is town -- I think he is). Also, while not necessarily a great point in his favor, I'd strongly caution against using his current absense and lack of defense as a point against him. If anything, scum have more motivation than townies to post a good defense ASAP because they are terrified of getting bandwaggoned and lynched. His absense doesn't make me think he is scum (although I do wish he would post more). IN CONCLUSION Intact's attempts at scumhunting look slightly suspicious, but I don't think he has a great chance at flipping scum. Could very easily be a newbie townie. I would not like to lynch him today. I haven't read through any other filters yet, but I'm sure we have a better lynch. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
scummy points+ Show Spoiler + He gives surprisingly few actual reads considering the moderate number of posts that he has made. He does nothing to convince me that he is actively interested in figuring out who the scum are here. He spends a lot of time calling out lurkers (asking them to talk), or just talking about random, irrelevant things. Here are several examples of posts where he doesn't actually committ to any reads (pretty much all of them):+ Show Spoiler + On June 29 2012 20:30 BLinD-RawR wrote: yes I do see that their argument seems lacking but that is also because analectus seems be quite uncooperative with Jingle therefore the argument itself seems to be quite pointless. Intact, any reads so far? On June 29 2012 21:48 BLinD-RawR wrote: we still have 2 lurkers/inactive players, until we can get them to talk and really get some info from them I'd lay off of voting. On June 30 2012 13:47 BLinD-RawR wrote: Fencer has been quite unproductive, making excuses about being a newbie when he knows this is a newbie game, posting a lot to compensate for that, but I'm not ready to unvote for anacletus just yet. On July 01 2012 01:44 BLinD-RawR wrote: I didn't do this yesterday, I'm calling it a night now so people know when I'm on and when I'm not, so seeing as I will miss the Night post I got somethings to say. I just hope that we don't end up in a no lynch situation and I really do want fresh reads from monk who has been largely inactive and people need to push on Bob to talk too. Bob has been as helpless as Fencer (who I think is more of an uncomfortable player than straight up scum but either way hes been hurting town play by not contributing) and worse is that we can't even get a read on him because he doesn't post. so until I have some sort of epiphany and rush to my PC, I'm going to stand by the Anacletus lynch. On July 01 2012 12:22 BLinD-RawR wrote: huge huge bummer on the anacletus misread, damn man he could have at least defended himself better or even roleclaimed if he had to. Its night now but I hope we have some DTs do checks and build cases off them or else we are in trouble going into day 2. On July 02 2012 11:08 BLinD-RawR wrote: Firstly I didn't know the deterrence between semi-open and an open game was until I saw the NMMXX thread and noticed the difference, and to be honest I really wanted to know because I wanted DTs to actually do their job instead of avoiding the fact that they exist in the game and use them back cases that have already been made on scum or build new cases based on who they checked on Night 1. What exactly would you have liked me to say after anacletus did get lynched? And yourself why should I believe any case you build from the sole fact that one of the 2 people who was on your case from the beginning was killed last night and what do you do? You redirect attention towards other people because there is nothing much you can do for the cases built against you. My other big gripe with BLinD-RawR is the way he jumps on the Anacletus bandwaggon. Here are his only real scumhunting posts: On June 29 2012 12:54 BLinD-RawR wrote: so far here my reads, JingleHell: I'm leaning toward town, actively taking an interest to know where people are at, yet being extremely aggressive on scum hunting considering the amount of activity on the thread. Analectus: for the most part not sharing reads isn't cool even for the the lack of activity and joking around doesn't help get a good read on him either....Leaning towards scum. On June 29 2012 23:38 BLinD-RawR wrote: ##Vote Analectus going with what little we have, hes been the most scummy so far. This jump on the bandwaggon is really suspicious. If I'm not mistaken, he is the 4th vote. He gives some pretty abysmal reasoning for the vote as well. Townie points:+ Show Spoiler + Really nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel. FoS BLinD-Rawr | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
scummy bandwaggoning on anacletus+ Show Spoiler + On June 30 2012 02:05 BobTheLob wrote: ##Vote Analectus This seems to be the only course of action right now... But I'm prepared to change my mind if someone else starts acting very odd. I believe this is the fifth vote on Anacletus. This is the first time BobtheLob has even mentioned Anacletus (or made any relevant posts for that matter). Quite a scummy bandwaggon vote with abysmal reasoning behind it. uses scummy excuses such as "newbie" and "lurking playstyle":+ Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 02:44 BobTheLob wrote: Just as a small defence for myself, I never post much and rarely post more than a few lines, it's just how I post as for bandwagoning... I'm new  I have next to no idea what I'm doing and despite having read up on all of the resources still am a bit lost. As for reads, I just have a feeling about Anacletus, but whether or not he's scum I have no idea the same with Fencer.I didn't post earlier because I just woke up and last night I was playing a game of Civ IV with my friends :D The "I'm a newbie" excuse is a well documented ploy by newbie scum. It is an ingratiating maneuver -- attempting to gain sympathy. Townies don't have any motivation to convince everyone how newbie they are; it only makes their cases seem less credible. Not only does he state a newbie excuse in this post, but he makes very noncomittal statements about Anacletus and Fencer. Scum never want to be held accountable for any of their reads or votes. On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote: Okay, I've lurked this entire game and I'm starting to realize that that is a bad idea... And here he admits to consciously lurking. What? This is scummy. Townies have strong motivation not to lurk -- we need to hunt out the scum. Extremely noncomittal scumhunting+ Show Spoiler + I already pointed out how he was super wishy/washy about Fencer and Anacletus. Here is the only other post of BobTheLob's where he posts some real reads: On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote: People are bandwagoning onto fencer now I agree he was acting odd but it's not conclusive Jingle and Promethelax are working together quite well and the rest of us are just following them. They seem to have alot of the same ideas... paying attention to them Myles hasn't posted to little or to much, he's playing it super safe. Not a clue Blind is, more or less in the same boat as me albeit a bit less so. See above AmericanUmlaut is doing quite well all his moves are well thought out but we still have no idea what side he's on could be one could be the other. No idea for him either Hopeless1der also seems to be the victim of a bit of bandwagoning but he seems pretty cool I'm thinking he's a town but hey I could be wrong Lastly Intact has been promoting conversation since the game began but seems to be in the same boat as me and perfection in that he hasn't posted enough. also not posting enough but I don't know That's all I got, keeping in mind that we have only one death so far and the night is going to be the most important bit so far because as Jingle said, the scum will try to set someone up Do games normally move this pace or faster/slower? You could summarize this post as "I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. No idea. Thinking town but could be wrong. I don't know." Townies should actively hunt out scummy behavior and form suspicions. BobTheLob does not. FoS BobTheLob | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled. I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today. Who I think we should lynch today Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets. My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today. I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today. As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr. My schedule I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch. But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will ##Vote BLinD-Rawr | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm still really not convinced about Intact. Maybe he is mafia/troll, but I still don't think he's our best chance. I still feel most confident about BLinD-Rawr, but I see that I am not getting much support. I suggest that you all revisit the cases against him. If you agree with me that he is a better lynch than Intact, please make your voice heard. We have only 2.5 hours left. If you don't agree with me, well please at least read his filter again. If I don't get enough support on BLinD-Rawr/BobTheLob, I am prepared to change my vote to Intact if that is needed for a majority. I won't miss the deadline. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
##unvote ##Vote Intact I really hope you're all right about him. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
What is the deal with Fencar? Is he being modkilled? Also, do you already have a replacement for Blind-Rawr or is he liable to be modkilled as well? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
welcome! Sorry, but you inherit suspicions from the actions of BLind-Rawr. If you are town, I ask that you make an effort to post a lot over the next few days and convince me of your innocence. Am I allowed to use the words/actions of mods as evidence towards determining players' roles? @ghost gratz on your 1000th post. I'm impressed that you remembered to change the number after copy+pasting your 500th :p | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I haven't really looked at the game since the lynch. I'll be going through everyone's filters tonight/tomorrow (I'm off work). So as of yet, I honestly haven't looked closely at anybody besides the people I mentioned yesterday. And anyway, I don't think it's a good idea to share townreads unless a) the fact that person A is town is evidence toward person B being scum b) your townread is in danger of being banned The only decisions we need to make as a town are decisions of who to ban. Agreeing about townreads isn't really relevant towards that goal. It's not like we have to elect somebody mayor. More than anything, sharing townreads just gives the trolls more information for making their night-kill decisions. I'll be reading some filters and will probably post some more/updated reads right before the deadline tomorrow. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
 Fencar is not getting modkilled, and several people have voiced strong suspicions on Fencar, so I took some time to do a close reading of his filter. I do not think that Fencar is a good lynch He reads to me like a nervous, newbie townie. Here are some points supporting that hypothesis: his posting style and nervousness+ Show Spoiler + I think a few people have remarked on Fencar's unproductive posting style. But, this is not a scumtell because it exactly matches his posts in the pregame. I would not hold his multitude of short posts against him. Look at the timestamps of his posts. He often made many posts in quick succession. I always find quickly written posts to be a symptom of townies -- people that have nothing to hide. My main point is: If Fencar was scum, I really don't see why he'd be doing so much posting. He obiously did way more than enough posting not to be branded a lurker. I'd expect a nervous scum to avoid posting as much as possible. But Fencar evidently felt obligated to contribute, even though he was very nervous and under fire. This is symptomatic of a nervous townie. His first post about agreeing with AmericanUmlaut+ Show Spoiler + On June 29 2012 18:22 Fencar wrote: Sorry T_T. I was literally asleep during the day. For better or for worse, my views are the same as Umlaut's. I can't really add anything. :\ I could be wrong about this, but such an explicit bandwaggon and lack of contribution in his first post seems too obvious a scumtell, even for a newbie. I'd be surprised to see any scum make such an obviously poor first post. Scum would be especially nervous/paranoid about their first post and make sure it is good. A scum Fencar surely wouldn't want to draw any more attention than he already had after not posting for so long. While others have deemed this a scummy post by Fencar, I think it is actually a point in his favor. Reads as newbie townie. bold and eager votes+ Show Spoiler + Fencar was first to vote. He then unvoted after being scolded, but then revoted as soon as Intact voted on Anacletus. Also on D2, Fencar was bold in voting hopeless1der so early. Such bold voting reads newbie townie to me more than newbie scum. Newbie scum would be terrified of drawing attention for making the first vote. Now while my overall read on Fencar is nervous newbie town, he does make a few suspicious posts: -- made many posts not related to scumhunting -- posts a town-analysis on Promethelax and bandwaggons on Intact -- makes a list of who has or has not contributed All of these points do read scummy, but they are also plausible actions for a newbie townie. I would not like for Fencar/Miltonkram to be our next lynch. Not only am I not convinced by the cases against Fencar, but I would like some time to get a read on Miltonkram. I have a nasty feeling that I'm going to be killed tonight. But if not, I'll be spending some more time today reading filters. Due to my excessive sleeping in, I still have not gotten around to everyone's filter. So expect more serious posts from me over the next 12 hours. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
 gg all | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I thought you played great. You're posts all gave me a really townie feel and I was willing to believe your DT claim even though I was quite suspicious of Blind-Rawr. You also called out the entire scumteam. Town was actually really close to winning this game. | ||
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