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woot woot got drafted /in
I have some questions about the setup/roles: It will be 3 mafia vs 9 townies? Is either the medic or his target notified of a successful medic save? Is the veteran notified if he is shot? Is the jailkeeper notified of a successful save or roleblock? Is the jailkeeper's target informed of a successful save or roleblock? Is the mafia roleblocker's target informed that he was roleblocked? If so, will he be told that it was by the mafia roleblocker as opposed to the jailkeeper? Can you "roleblock" the veteran? What happens if the jailkeeper and roleblocker target each other and the vigilante shoots the roleblocker?
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On June 12 2012 09:07 ShiaoPi wrote:To scumteam, make sure solstice gets shot n1 again that would be 3 games in a row :D To townteam, if solstice is not shot night 1, you should lynch him day 2 :D
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Good morning Liquidia! My heart was actually pounding as I looked at my role PM (yes I love this game too much) but I breathed a sigh of relief as I've again rolled town. I hope to convince you all of my noble allegiance with some successful scumhunting over the next few days. But I stand by my belief that a fluffy opening post is more productive than an FOS based off the way someone says hello; especially after obsing D1 of Newbie Mini XVI. So here I am, at it again. Two goals with this post:
1) Share some constructive thoughts 2) Get people talking about something (besides the fact that there is nothing to talk about: see XVI) 6 new newbies and 6 old newbies (my POV) + Show Spoiler + One of the reasons I'm so excited for this game is that 5 of my buddies from Newbie Mini XV (a very enjoyable game) are back: austinmcc, golden, miltonkram, s0Lstice, suki We all have some idea of what to expect from each other, so I think this will help us in making reads. However, don't put too much faith in reads based off somebody simply playing different than last game. After all, we are all newbies here and players' strategy and playstyle can change quite a bit in the first few games, whether consciously or not. To the guys I dont know (roflwaffles55, trackd00r, Crossfire99, Mouldy_Jeb, alan133, heavOnEarth), I suggest that you look through XV if you have some spare time. It'll give you a better grasp on personalities, and let you focus on figuring out who is mafia rather than figuring out who is who.
Inactives and Lurkers+ Show Spoiler + Chances are at least one person ends up lurking for most of D1, and I'd bet money that somebody will suggest a lurker lynch. I'm willing to lynch lurkers, but I don't want "lynch a lurker" to be the focus D1. This is for several reasons:
-- Focusing on lurkers takes the pressure off mafia. It's not too difficult for mafia to take a stance on a lurker ("he's lurking") nor to make up an excuse for a mislynch ("well he was lurking") -- From my experience thus far in forum games, lurkers aren't any more or less likely to be mafia than anyone else -- Also from my experience thus far in forum games, it is totally possible to identify scummy people D1 who actually have a good chance at flipping red In summary, I ask that you keep lurkers on your mind, but not make them the hot topic of discussion. We should consider lynching them in the absence of better options.
Thoughts on the setup+ Show Spoiler + Not really a lot of analysis we can do since all we know is there is at least 1 VT. Here is some advice for newbie blues:
Just act like a normal townie with your posts. Don't claim without a really solid reason. If it looks like you might be lynched, don't claim. If you are definitely going to be lynched, you might as well claim, but there's no guarantee that we will believe you (sorry). @cop Don't check people that look likely to be Night Killed or that look likely to be lynched without your help. A smart check is on an influential player that you think might be scum, but doesn't look likely to die in the near future (from either lynch or NK). @medic, jailkeeper, veteran Pretty self-explanatory. go save lives. @vigilante You really don't want to die without using your bullet, but at the same time, your bullet appreciates in value as the game goes on. You have to judge the best moment to shoot. And you should claim after using your shot unless you have a good reason not to.
NL in this setup?+ Show Spoiler + NL seems like a really bad idea due to the uncertainty of the roles. I can't envision a scenario where it would make sense before the final 4. So, we have to make sure to get a majority of votes each day. This can be difficult, especially in the beginning, but it is really helpful if you make yourself available in the few hours leading up to the deadline. In general, it's better to lynch a probable townie than to NL. But try not to let it come to that.
Well I think that is quite enough and hopefully prompts some people into posting.. Or you can ignore me and talk about something else. Just post! 48 hours feels shortest on D1.
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Alright it's been 5 hours and we've heard from 10 players. Pretty good activity, which is really important on D1. But I think we're done with introductions and we've thoroughly covered policy. Townies, it's time to get mean and start calling people out! Differentiate yourselves from the scum by doing some legit analysis and stating your honest reads.
That said, I'm interested in hearing opinions of suki's post on trackd00r. What do you all think of suki's analysis?
Here are my own thoughts on trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + suki's main accusation is that trackd00r contradicted himself. I didn't find his posts to be the easiest reading, but as far as I can tell he is reasonably consistent. His stance is that NL is a very bad idea and that he would only promote NL if the alternative lynch was terribad. I'd be interested to hear him clarify.
I think suki twisted his words, or at least misinterpreted them. trackd00r said " if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch." and suki summarized this as "mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch". I don't think that's what he said.
I would concede that his first couple posts are a bit hard to follow. But poor wording is not a scumtell. I don't see a "logical slip" as suki put it. Maybe she could put it more clearly for me.
Anyways, I'm off to sleep soon. Over the next 24 hours, I'd like to see some accusations and opinions on other people's accusations. It'd be nice to have some lynch candidates on the table ~20 hours before the deadline, so we have plenty of time to debate who we should actually lynch, as well as hear everyone's opinion on the primary lynch candidate(s).
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Hey guys. I've been trying to keep up with the thread from work, but there are more posts than I have time to read and it's not really working out. Just posting to let you know that I'll not be doing major analysis and/or posting until 6-12 hours from now. Sorry about that. Keep up the discussion - it looks good.
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Just got back and am in the process of making notes on everyone, but going to be afk for a couple hours. alan133 is the topic of discussion right now so here are my thoughts on him
"I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post" + Show Spoiler + First of all, i think he is referring to my post. Don't know why everyone's been calling it s0lstice's post.
Anyway, alan has gotten some flak for this statement but I actually think it is more townie indicative than anything.
First of all, I highly doubt he'd lie about refreshing. There's really no point to that.
Secondly, consider that he didn't have to tell us about refreshing and editing. Nobody was pressuring him. He could have easily just scrapped his post and rewritten it. If he was scum, would he want to give us extra information about what posts he's been writing? Probably not. So I see his openness with us as a townie attribute.
Accusation that he has been wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler + He has made some statements about being neutral and unsure, explicitly talking about "merely listing the possibilities" and how he "does not trust anyone yet".
While wishyness/washiness is a common attribute of newbie scum, I don't find his stances particularly scummy. It doesn't seem like a scummy wishy/washy, just an unsure wishy/washy.
He isn't being subtle about things; he is openly stating that he is unsure. I don't see this as a scumtell.
His question to the mods+ Show Spoiler + Seems like a pretty honest question. I doubt he's trying to make himself seem townie by asking the mods questions. Looks like he just actually wants to know. And if he were mafia, I think he'd more likely be posting this in the mafia QT
His aggressive response to roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler + He was put under the suspicion of roflwaffles and somewhat trackd00r. alan is a forum mafia newbie who doesn't know anyone here. If he was mafia, I'd expect him to be scared/timid about being accused, whereas if he is town, I'd expect him to be indignant. I liked that he was aggressive back at roflwaffles.
Overall, there is nothing I see as scummy about alan and a few things that look townie. So I think he's probably town.
got to go now. I'll be back in about two hours.
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I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarth
I've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki:
Her original accusation of trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says: -- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious... -- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says... -- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. -- ##vote trackd00r
She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later.
Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons. -- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good -- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell. -- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read).
The way that suki backs off trackd00r+ Show Spoiler +I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote: As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.
Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation. general attitude in her filter+ Show Spoiler + suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions.
how she opens the game+ Show Spoiler + This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion.
The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it.
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As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth.
crossfire There isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum:
his suspicions on austin+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote: I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game. his stance on Mouldy Jeb+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote: Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior. Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting+ Show Spoiler + Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter.
Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy.
HeavOnEarth I don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy
throws suspicion on several easy targets+ Show Spoiler +My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote: nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? And now he becomes wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote: was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them.
My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as -- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad" -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing
Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious
suki I see that suki has recently doubled or tripled the size of her filter in just two posts. I'm going to read through these and figure out how they affect my read on her.
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alan133 There has been a lot of material posted on alan and an influential handful of people find him suspicious. Here's a summary of opinions on him: + Show Spoiler + suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire defensive: me no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth
More of my thoughts on alan+ Show Spoiler + With 4 people willing to vote him, he is in danger of being lynched. I still do not think he is scum. His posts may be difficult reading, but overall, I think he has tried to be open and transparent.
It is true that he has taken up a policy of being indecisive and "open minded", but he has at least stated this forthright, instead of being sneaky about it.
I didn't follow his conspiracy theory either, but half-heartedly suggesting conpsiracy theories doesn't seem like something a mafia would be likely to do.
Finally, s0Lstice and suki have both talked about alan's over-defensiveness and reactionary aggressiveness. I'm just not convinced that these are attributes of a mafia. His defense just drew even more attention to himself - something that a mafia certainly would not want. To me, his defense reads as indignant and frustrated moreso than scared.
@MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth I'd like to hear opinions on alan. He's drawn several players' suspicions. Would you be comfortable with lynching him?
suki my thoughts on suki's accusation of alan+ Show Spoiler + suki recently posted a large, well-thought accusation of alan. I think she broke down his posts nicely and made some reasonable points. I could definitely see this post as analysis from a townie suki. However, alan has already been deemed suspicious by miltonkram, s0Lstice, and waffles. On top of that, his posts are difficult to follow and easy to attack. So I could also see a mafia suki making this post. Overall, I consider it a small point in her favor for doing some dedicated scumhunting.
my thoughts on suki's defense+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote: @sciberbia
I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid.
I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't.
Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words.
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all.
Hmhm. I just posted a big thing on alan. I have been away all day and it took me forever to look at the thread and all the filters and make a post that really contributed to the thread.
As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that.
And now I've spent like three hours on these two posts and I have things to do before I sleep, so good night! I'll try to find time in the morning to contribute but I may not be able to until after work. I'm suspicious of this explanation because it is admitting that she was being nontransparent. She's basically asking us not to hold her to what she said, because she didn't really mean what she said. It's possible that she is town and was just being devious to start some discussion, but non-transparency is a definite mafia characteristic. Similarly, her line about "I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that" suggests adhering to her own personal agenda to look townie, which is more consistent with a mafia's objectives than a townie's.
In summary, suki's last two posts do little to alleviate my suspicions.
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Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan.
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@austinmcc Sorry but as I've said, I'm busy and won't be able to post much for the next few hours. The thread will have my full attention for the last hour and a half before the deadline, and I'll help organize the lynch.
@all Crossfire has drawn suspicions of several people, and now he has finally posted both a substantial post and defense. Getting fresh opinions on him is important right now. Please share your opinion on him if you haven't already, and update your opinion if it has changed as a result of his defense.
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Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions
HeavOnEarth interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below).
Crossfire interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles
Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious.
Mouldy Jeb The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth.
golden I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth.
IN SUMMARY HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch.
@heavOnEarth It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched.
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My thoughts on HeavOnEarth:
I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden.
On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote: As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies.
Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"?
Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down.
Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him.
##Vote HeavOnEarth
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@miltonkram, @s0Lstice, @austinmcc I'm not too disconcerted by the near unanimous voting. If HeavOnEarth is scum, there are only 2 more scum out of 11 other players. 3 players have yet to comment on HeavOnEarth at all, and there could quite possibly be some bussing going on. As s0Lstice said, scum could probably see the writing on the wall. Are you guys actually less suspicious of heavOnEarth due to the voting or are you just being pessimistic? How do the votes affect the likeliness that heavOnEarth is mafia in your eyes?
I want to reiterate some of the things I said earlier, because the thread has been relatively quiet in the last hour, and right now is a very important time for activity.
@heavOnEarth You are very likely getting lynched today. Your posting right now can only help town. If you are townie and are looking at the thread, you should definitely be posting reads right now.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ If any of you are in the thread right now, you should take the opportunity to state your opinion on heavOnEarth before he flips rather than after, in the interest of giving town more information.
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fuck yes :D well done everyone!
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awesome job guys. I'll be going through filters during the next few hours. I'm optimistic about lynching another mafia tomorrow.
@Crossfire That sucks man. Good luck with getting everything sorted out. And I hope you don't get modkilled.
@all Now seems like a good time to share a couple more thoughts about night actions that have been bouncing around in my head. Nothing too crucial, but just some suggestions.
@vigi: consider claiming your shot just before the daypost + Show Spoiler + There's a lot of personal judgement that goes into this, but if you are afraid of being NK'd, and you are using your shot, consider claiming it seconds before the daypost. Then if you get NK'd and flip vigi, we aren't deprived of information.
on claiming RB's + Show Spoiler + If you are RB'd by the mafia roleblocker, it would be really helpful for you to claim the RB. It just gives the town information that the mafia already has.
If on the other hand you are RB'd by the jailkeeper, claiming the RB probably isn't in the town's best interest because it lets mafia know the existance of a jailkeeper.
Of course, the problem is that you will not know for sure who RB'd you. But depending on who you are, it could be pretty obvious. If you are pretty sure it was a mafia roleblocker that roleblocked you, you should claim it.
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I've gone through the filters and updated my reads. I think we are in pretty good shape due to yesterday's lynch. There are a handful of players that look pretty townie after HeavOnEarth's flip, and having a bunch of townreads alive is great for us.
Even more importantly, there is one player in particular who looks quite scummy after yesterday: roflwaffles55
roflwaffles gets more and more suspicious as the day goes on, but I'll start with minor things at the beginning, and go through his noteworthy posts chronologically
his comment on trackd00r+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote: I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well.
However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands.
He avoids taking a stance on trackd00r using phrases such as "weren't particularly convincing" and "little bit lackluster". His language is slightly scummy to begin with. And he doesn't actually contribute his own opinion. Minor points.
his case on alan+ Show Spoiler +Overall, I thought his case on alan was reasonable, but a bit of a stretch. On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote: This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. At that early point in the game, I personally wasn't very suspicious of anyone, and not many suspicions had been voiced overall. Yet roflwaffles criticizes alan for not forming any cases or applying pressure. Only miltonkram and suki had previously applied pressure. roflwaffle's decision to attack alan feels arbitrary, much like HeavonEarth's decision to attack golden. On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote: He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. This is a stretch. alan throws suspicion at miltonkram in order to get people to start suspecting miltonkram so that alan isn't in the spotlight? Kinda farfetch'd. In summary, roflwaffle's original case against alan wasn't terrible, but definitely didn't impress me or make him look townie.
his probing of MJ+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:18 roflwaffles55 wrote: Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself!
Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r? I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table. Here roflwaffles probes MJ a bit and calls his first post "fairly lackluster". This is an easy post to make and puts attention on a lurky player (who I think is town). Another minor point.
backing off of alan+ Show Spoiler +This is where I start to get some significant suspicions. The only two people that originally repsonded to roflwaffle's case on alan were alan and suki. Alan posted a counteraggressive defense, and suki said she didn't find the case very convincing. So roflwaffles felt some heat on his case. On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote: While I am completely aware that my case has several holes in it, nobody can expect an ironclad case halfway through D1. The points you bring up in the first half of your response to me continue to be ambiguous, I'm glad you started to get your legitimate opinions out there, being quiet and neutral will get us nowhere. Both of our initial posts tended to agree with the majority, but as I said, that wasn't the focus of my argument, it was the post on the suki argument that got my suspicions roused. Previously, roflwaffles said that alan was acting "quite scummy" and voted him. Now he is "completely aware that my case has several holes in it". I agree with miltonkram's sentiment that roflwaffle's inital case on alan was reasonable, and it is a bit odd how he backs away from it here. On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote: Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. More suspicious statements here. His pointing out that votes are easily removeable makes him seem scared of alan. Again, he talks about the "obvious logical holes" in his cases. I didn't see any obvious logical holes in roflwaffle's case and I don't think roflwaffles did either, seeing as he called alan "quite scummy" and subsequently voted him. Finally, being coninvced that alan has something to lose "whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play" is not townie analysis. Townies are only interested in finding scum. And roflwaffles is further distancing himself from his own accusation of alan.
continues to attack alan+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 15:03 roflwaffles55 wrote: I'm currently waiting on Mouldy Jeb's and alan133's responses to the cases brought against them, until something convinces me otherwise, I still believe that alan133 is increasingly suspicious.
roflwaffles did some more attacking on alan, but didn't have any new reasons to be suspicious, merely stating that alan's lack of arguments is suspicious. But you could say this about many players. I'm not sure why roflwoffles "still believes that alan133 is increasingly suspicious". Also, note that he is still anti-MJ.
analyzes the danger of each potential mafia+ Show Spoiler +I find this post really scummy. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote: I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
Crossfire99
Sciberbia posted a convincing case on him already, and several people have posted tidbits on him, however, nobody has put the focus on him (partially my fault). Therefore, if he is in fact following the thread and trying slide under the radar of suspicion while we focus on alan133, suki, and HeavOnEarth, he is going to get away with it.
His play was very lackluster and never brought fresh reads to the table. Out of everyone, if he is scum, he seems to be one of the most dangerous to let live.
alan133
I've already tunneled the crap out of him, and his defenses have been drastic and overly reactionary. If he were left alive, I honestly think he could do a fair bit of damage as scum, just because he defends very well and seems to have people convinced as to his innocence.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
suki
It would be self-serving of me to defend suki, as she took my case against alan133 and improved it, I believe in her case. But for the benefit of the doubt, let's assume she's scum. The strength or lack thereof (trapd00r case) of her cases imply that she's trying to lead the vote towards those that aren't scum.
If she is scum, she could be quite dangerous later on.
All of that theorizing on what they "could" do if they were scum being done...
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 This kind of analysis is just really useless. Our goal isn't to lycnh players that would be dangerous if they are scum. On the contrary, it is to figure out who actually is scum. But roflwaffles doesn't do that here. Previously, roflwaffles had said nothing about crossfire, but now votes crossfire because he is the most "lynchable" and potentially dangerous scum. These are pretty bad reasons, and Crossfire had some serious suspicion on him already. roflwaffles is just jumping on the bandwaggon with poor reasoning. roflwaffles is all over the place with HeavOnEarth. He describes HeavOnEarth as "quite suspicious", but says he could just as easily be an awful townie. On June 15 2012 02:47 roflwaffles55 wrote: Oh shit, forgot about Mouldy Jeb.. obviously he's an easy lynch to make, and if we can't come to a majority then we should just get rid of him barring some legitimate posts on his part. Continues to support a lynch of Mouldy Jeb. Overall, this recent activity is quite scummy imo.
further scummy defense of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote: I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99 ##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. This just reads as a blatantly scummy defense to me, knowing that HeavOnEarth is mafia. He is trying to say that he suspected HeavOnEarth all along, but that he was hoping for something more (???) He also questions the information we get from a HeavOnEarth lynch, which is a secondary issue. If he is scummy, we should lynch him. Finally, he attributes his difference of opinion to "new player optimism" which is a scummy excuse.
In summary, I think there is a pretty good chance roflwaffles is scum, based mostly on his last couple of posts before the deadline.
I'm super tired now and going to sleep. I'll be pretty busy for the rest of night phase, so you probably won't see much more posting out of me this night. But I'll have plenty of time to dedicate to the game this weekend, so I expect to be quite active during D2.
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Been following the thread from work. It seems we are all in agreement that roflwaffles is quite scummy. Just want to say that I fully approve of vigi shooting him. It's pretty likely he flips red and I'd rather just see the flip and move on rather than having our discussion stagnate for two days. Also, it is a really good shot that vigi is guaranteed to be able to get off without being NK'd.
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@Unforgiven Welcome to the game! Yes, night ends in about 6 hours.
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Hey guys. I only got back to my computer about half an hour ago. Still catching up on recent posts. I quickly reread through the filters of bot suki and austinmcc, and I find suki more suspicious. But I need to study her filter more before coming to any conclusions. I haven't looked much at golden or trackd00r. If I'm still alive D2, I'll do some serious filter studying of each of these players and post more well-founded reads.
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