Newbie Mini Mafia XVII

On June 19 2012 03:59 s0Lstice wrote:
Anyway, yea. Last scum is Unforgiven_ve

I'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player. No vote on D1 from Mouldy Jeb, he gets replaced. No vote on D2 from Unforgiven, he gets a warning. Is the last scum going to get mod-killed, resulting in a town win? Doubtful.

Now let's look at Mouldy Jeb

I'll start with another game he was in, where he was town. Here are some select posts.





He explains his reads here, then takes a firm stance with a vote. Look at this game:







His reasoning is pretty weak in both games, but it's far weaker in this game. The baseless suspicion of roflewaffles is very, very telling. Looks like newb scum trying to appear like he is pressuring his teammate. The most important thing, however, is no votes. It doesn't match, and it's scummy.

Now, move to Unforgiven. He has been useless this game, except for a weak bus on roflwaffles, which gives him just a smidge of town credit. Maybe enough to keep him off the radar while he lurks with purpose.



Look at how he dances around austin:



This is just after he said his two main suspects were roflewaffles and austin.

Now let's look at other games. NMM XV comes to mind. His filter is big, so I'll just highlight a few points.







Again, just like MJ, the tone does not match. He is sure-footed and comes down hard on his reads. Here, not so much.

I feel like this post is getting pretty big, so I won't pull quotes from NMM XIII, but go have a look. He was scum in that game, and he lurked with purpose. He bussed teammates as well. It looks A LOT like what's happening in this game.

That leads me to my next point. This game, right now, feels a lot like XIII. The scum lurked, and town tore itself to pieces, destroying the people with content (who were all town) one by one. It's been a seemingly insurmountable task to find the last scum in this game, and we've already started the process of slowly cannibalizing ourselves. It seems insurmountable because we (I) cleared the last scum based on bussing arguments.

A wise man (thanks Marv!) told me in coaching PM's that bussing is only illogical for scum if it causes a scumbuddy to be lynched. When HeavOnEarth and roflewaffles bussed MJ, was there seriously any chance that he was getting lynched that day? No. Emphatically no. Them bussing him was not illogical, it was smart. Look at the confusion it caused. I bet Greymist has been in that scum QT insisting that they not be afraid to call each other out, and he was right of course.

I'll even add NK analysis for the cherry on top. Why are our strong town reads still alive? Because we have been completely, utterly, wrong since Day 2 began. Unforgiven was free to blue snipe as he pleased (austin could look blue, no? he is cautious like a blue), because the big talkers were all wrong. Also, remember how the night action was so late? It's because Unforgiven has been busy, like he said.

It all makes sense! FINALLY!!!!! Please let's kill Unforgiven_ve on day 3 and be done with this game. I want to feel the sweet taste of victory.

On June 19 2012 08:44 Miltonkram wrote:
@ s0Lstice
I was reading through the filters when I noticed your posts on Unforgiven. I was a little skeptical of the case, it seemed like you were reading way too far into host actions and such. The only thing I found scummy was HeavOnEarth's "bus" of MJ D1. Nevertheless your posts caused me to do a double-check of Unforgiven's filter.

I'd like everyone to take a look at this post.

What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town.

What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information." This seems advantageous since roflwaffles was still in the game at that time. If roflwaffles was still alive after N1, he could back down from the weak pressure he posted here.

There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy.

On June 19 2012 17:56 Miltonkram wrote:
Back from work. Unforgiven, is there any reason why you claimed vanilla?

I'd like to open the question to everyone else as well. I'm not sure I'll get an answer from Unforgiven and I'd actually appreciate some sort of explanation if there is one. Is there any reason why a town player would claim vanilla? I honestly can't think of a good one.

Between HeavOnEarth's awkward "bus" and Unforgiven's VT claim I think we have all the evidence we need. I feel pretty good about this.

##Vote: HeavOnEarth

On June 20 2012 01:48 suki wrote:
following up with what sciberbia said, Xatalos' original quote did not mention the Obs QT. Therefore, I took it as Xatalos was implying that zelblade had slipped information in the main thread. I interpreted it this way, and I think s0lstice did too. This prompted s0lstice to take a much closer look at the mod text, which lead to his theory that because unforgiven had not been modkilled after missing his vote, there was some meta information that could be gathered from it.

In the end, there wasn't really a slip, but I do think s0lstice's point that the moderator actions are a big hint at unforgiven's real role has a lot of merit.

In addition, I'd like to point out that in Mafia XV, unforgiven never once claimed that he was vanilla town or even town, despite being a VT. In that game unforgiven got a lot of heat for his posting style (which was pretty anti-town and confusing), but he never tried to claim VT/town and use that as an excuse.

On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.

Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.

##Vote: HeavOnEarth

On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.

On June 16 2012 07:33 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey guys, just got caught up on the thread. Figured I'd throw in my two cents while I've got time.

The case against roflwaffles is the closest I've seen to a slam dunk case in any of the games I've played in. There's not much I can add to it. Proceed to string him up with my blessing unless of course we have a vigi, then just shoot the poor bastard.

Not much to add in suggestions for blue players either. Just breadcrumb your night actions so we can come back to them later.

I'll have more analysis up shortly.