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Hello everyone,
I apologise for not having posted yet, Grey persuaded me to join the game late last night and Mafia is something completely new to me.
I understand lurking can be quite suspicious, so I have every intention of being as active as I can - however, there's a lot of reading for me to catch up on and I'd rather take what time is available to form a proper, thought-out opinion before jumping in and making any accusations.
Expect another post within the next couple of hours. Hopefully a somewhat fresh, almost outside opinion on events thus far could help clear some things up.
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OK, a powercut just caused me to lose what was becoming a rather epic post.. it's now quite late so I'll do my best to rewrite as best I can.
The people I'm most suspicious of;
Xatalos: Very hard to get a conclusive read on this guy, as others have noted there seems to be a lot of clutter without much focus. I get the impression he's trying hard to come across as very active and pro-town, trying very hard to avoid the typical stereotypes associated with mafia when in fact the opposite could very well be the truth.
Dittert: His actions since facing the brunt of the accusations/votes suggest to me that he is in fact a townie, but suspicion is still very high regardless - though a lot of it seems to stem from his initial RNG lynch proposal, which I don't think is much to really go on. Accepting 'defeat' and self-voting in the manner in which he did leads me to believe he's actually a townie who no longer feels he has the credibility to defend himself, though I would by no means be surprised if he is scum.
imallinson: Gives me a scummy vibe. Seems to not really push any agenda's but has a sensible, logical opinion of events as they transpire. Although his post count isn't low he still comes across as quiet and wanting to avoid attention. Agrees early on with Xatalos.
Semi-suspicious;
willz: Had an integral role in the first lynching, the victim of which was quite suspicious of willz to begin with. Comes across as very defensive but not necessarily pro-town.
Yomi: Seems to be a driving force and is regularly close to the centre of events. Does a solid job of defending himself when required (often). His motives when posting though appear genuinely pro-town. He seems at odds with a lot of the other high-suspicion players which I think gives him some credit.
HiroPro: Quite quiet except in self-defence. Lots of focus on other people's discrepancies - but seems convinced Xatalos is scum, which if true could do a lot to clear his name.
Least suspicious;
vonKlaust: Genuinely pro-town. Hasn't done much if at all to make me suspicious except perhaps blend in quite well.
KharadBanar: Objective and again genuinely pro-town. Not much to really say here right now.
Acrofales: Open, transparent, fact-focused. The least suspicious.
Right now my vote is a toss-up between Xatalos and Dittert. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting on anyone else at this point. I can't shake the feeling that Dittert may still be town, so I'm reserving some judgment on him for when he next posts.
I'm going to have to end it there for now (just clocked 4AM here). I apologise to those of you who were probably expecting something far more thorough and decisive, hopefully now that I'm an active part in the discussion and not a bystander I can be more helpful and contribute more.
But for now;
##Vote: Xatalos
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On April 16 2012 14:44 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 12:04 funcmode wrote:
OK, a powercut just caused me to lose what was becoming a rather epic post.. it's now quite late so I'll do my best to rewrite as best I can.
The people I'm most suspicious of;
Xatalos: Very hard to get a conclusive read on this guy, as others have noted there seems to be a lot of clutter without much focus. I get the impression he's trying hard to come across as very active and pro-town, trying very hard to avoid the typical stereotypes associated with mafia when in fact the opposite could very well be the truth.
Dittert: His actions since facing the brunt of the accusations/votes suggest to me that he is in fact a townie, but suspicion is still very high regardless - though a lot of it seems to stem from his initial RNG lynch proposal, which I don't think is much to really go on. Accepting 'defeat' and self-voting in the manner in which he did leads me to believe he's actually a townie who no longer feels he has the credibility to defend himself, though I would by no means be surprised if he is scum.
imallinson: Gives me a scummy vibe. Seems to not really push any agenda's but has a sensible, logical opinion of events as they transpire. Although his post count isn't low he still comes across as quiet and wanting to avoid attention. Agrees early on with Xatalos.
Semi-suspicious;
willz: Had an integral role in the first lynching, the victim of which was quite suspicious of willz to begin with. Comes across as very defensive but not necessarily pro-town.
Yomi: Seems to be a driving force and is regularly close to the centre of events. Does a solid job of defending himself when required (often). His motives when posting though appear genuinely pro-town. He seems at odds with a lot of the other high-suspicion players which I think gives him some credit.
HiroPro: Quite quiet except in self-defence. Lots of focus on other people's discrepancies - but seems convinced Xatalos is scum, which if true could do a lot to clear his name.
Least suspicious;
vonKlaust: Genuinely pro-town. Hasn't done much if at all to make me suspicious except perhaps blend in quite well.
KharadBanar: Objective and again genuinely pro-town. Not much to really say here right now.
Acrofales: Open, transparent, fact-focused. The least suspicious.
Right now my vote is a toss-up between Xatalos and Dittert. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting on anyone else at this point. I can't shake the feeling that Dittert may still be town, so I'm reserving some judgment on him for when he next posts.
I'm going to have to end it there for now (just clocked 4AM here). I apologise to those of you who were probably expecting something far more thorough and decisive, hopefully now that I'm an active part in the discussion and not a bystander I can be more helpful and contribute more.
But for now;
##Vote: Xatalos Nice to see you posting at last. I agree with most of your reads (although not about myself of course...), but there really isn't too much content in this post, not even as much as in my latest Mafia/town read post. I want to ask a couple of questions: A) Why do you think I lack focus, when I have actually tunneled most of the game (ArcticFox, yomi) and almost completely focused on Mafia reads? B) Why is it suspicious to be "active and pro-town"? It's just WIFOM to think Mafia's strategy would be to appear as pro-town as possible, considering it's an extremely difficult lie to keep up and bound to fail at some point.
Perhaps lacking focus wasn't the best way to phrase what I meant. You've probably done more tunneling in this thread than anyone else (which ties into "appearing pro-town") but the focus seems lacking when it comes to being decisive and conclusive. Additionally, your recent posts come across as quite desperate and attempting to shift the focus of attention away from yourself.
You say things like this + Show Spoiler +On April 16 2012 14:59 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 06:01 vonKlaust wrote:
And I’m perfectly aware of this, but this does not really answer me. The problem is that he is overconfident in his reads, and suffers from severe confirmation bias.
Since Xatalos have not yet started to act on my and others advice to start to take it a bit easy on the accusations and stop to tunnel people I’m starting to lean towards scummyness. His play just doesn’t make sense to me.
Wouldn't you agree that I have been less tunneling today than before? I have focused more broadly and also considered Dittert and HiroPro as top targets for lynching. Also, aggression and tunneling isn't necessarily a Mafia trait: I see no reason to push so hard for a specific target as Mafia, since that would just make you A) suspicious if he flips town or B) the target unsuspicious if you yourself flip Mafia. Too much risk for too little reward, especially considering that aggression doesn't necessarily make a good town impression of yourself either...
There is of course still a chance you could be town, I'm not discounting that, but I can't help but feel that chance diminishing the more you post rather than increasing. Not to mention the two people you mention in the post I quoted stand to benefit somewhat if you do indeed flip mafia.
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+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 01:53 Acrofales wrote:Okay. I don't want to wait any longer. I have been waiting all day to see what happened. I have the sneaking suspicion that mafia is just perfectly happy to leave the lynch on Xatalos: the inactivity is quite telling, as I don't think the cases on Xata are good enough for a mafia to just roll over and buss their buddy. Now I am not sure here, mafia could just have gone into hiding. However, I have not sat still. When I said I'd take a stab at connection play, I meant it. Rather than just the cases, I started with analysing voting behaviour. Now this is going to be a very long and technical post, and as with any connection play it makes some assumptions about what I think mafia would and wouldn't do. First a very quick summary of D1 votes: + Show Spoiler [voting behaviour D1] +
KB bad pressures HiroPro
Xatalos makes a case on ArcticFox
imallison hops on ArcticFox
Yomi votes Dittert without a proper case, but suspicions
HiroPro makes a case against Xatalos
BroodKing suspects Dittert
imallison makes a throwaway vote on trumpetarm
KB: another obvious pressure vote on Yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 13 6:52
ArcticFox (1): Xatalos
Dittert (2): Yomi, BroodKing
trumpetarm (1): imallison
Yomi (1): KB
Xatalos (1): HiroPro
No vote: Acro, ArcticFox, Dittert, trumpetarm, willz, vonKlaust
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Xatalos makes a new case: vonKlaust
HiroPro follows
vonKlaust counters HiroPro and immediately unvotes when HiroPro defends
HiroPro kisses and makes up (unvote)
Dittert makes a case against Willz, Yomi and ArcticFox. Vote Yomi
BroodKing unvotes Dittert based on it
ArcticFox makes a case on Yomi (I cannot call it following KB)
Acrofales makes a case on willz
KB follows
vonKlaust follows
Dittert follows (granted, he had a case already and was voting yomi only because he didn't think willz woud get town support)
Xatalos follows (stronger than his own cases)
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 00:40
Willz (5): Acro, KB, vonKlaust, Dittert, Xatalos
Dittert (1): yomi
trumpetarm (1): imallison
yomi (1): ArcticFox
No vote: trumpetarn, BroodKing, HiroPro, willz
---
BroodKing follows willz (small addition to case)
Willz makes a case against BroodKing
Xatalos makes a case on Yomi
KB votes for lurker HiroPro
Willz goes emo and votes for himself
Willz decides to save himself, because ArcticFox talks him into it.
KB votes for yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 05:35
Willz (4): Acro, vonKlaust, Dittert, BroodKing
Ditter (1): yomi
trumpetarm (1): imallison
yomi (4): ArcticFox, willz, Xatalos, KB
No vote: trumpetarm, HiroPro
---
Yomi wants to save himself: votes willz
vonKlaust flipflops: votes Yomi
BroodKing votes Yomi and town blows up.
Yomi votes BroodKing (chance to save himself?)
KB searching for consensus (understandable): votes BroodKing
Xatalos hops on the bandwagon
vonKlaust hops on the bandwagon
imallison comes up with a plausible explanation to hop on the bandwagon
ArcticFox hops on the bandwagon
HiroPro hops on the bandwagon
FINAL VOTE D1
BroodKing (7): yomi, KB, Xatalos, vonKlaust, imallsion, ArcticFox, HiroPro
yomi (2): willz, BroodKing
willz (2): Acro, Dittert
No vote: trumpetarm
and D2 votes so far: + Show Spoiler [D2 voting behaviour] +
Acro votes Dittert based on nightly reads
Yomi sheeps
Imallison sheeps
Dittert /suicides
KB bandwagons
Xatalos makes a case on Yomi (again)
HiroPro makes a case on Xatalos
Xatalos bandwagons Dittert for really weak reasons
KB bandwagons Dittert, with a good analysis post
Willz votes Xatalos
Yomi makes a case against Xatalos, again, but KEEPS his vote on Dittert
KB sheeps Xatalos (although he's building on his earlier case)
VOTECOUNT @ April 16 05:51
Dittert (5): Acro, Yomi, imallison, Dittert, Xata
Xata (3): HiroPro, willz, KB
No vote: Funcmode, vonKlaust
---
vonKlaust bandwagons Xatalos
funcmode bandwagons Xatalos
Dittert unsuicides and continues his case on willz
Acro unvotes Dittert and bandwagons Xata
imallison posts a long case and bandwagons Xata
VOTECOUNT @ April 17 00:45
Dittert (2): Yomi, imallison, Xata
Xatalos (7): HiroPro, willz, KB, vonKlaust, funcmode, imallison
Willz (1): Dittert
And now the assumptions: 1. I assume that mafia is particularly willing to buss their mates: if there is a plausible way out, they will take it. 2. I assume that mafia does not care who of two townies gets lynched and won't voteswitch unless a bandwagon calls for it. + Show Spoiler [speculation] +I realize the second may not be plausible to some of you, but I for one, as scum, am happy with any town lynch. If it's someone dangerous I consider it a nice bonus, but I'll take what I can get. I am extrapolating that most scum play that way. I tried to find something interesting in the pre-Yomi/Willz votes, but there is nothing that stands out to me. However, both the Yomi/Willz-votes and the Brood bandwagon allow me to draw a few conclusions. First I would like to say that Dittert, Willz', Trumpetarn and my own absense at the final vote could be seen as suspicious. I personally believe there are valid reasons for all these absenses and don't think I can read anything into them. + Show Spoiler [Brood bandwagon conclusions] +
imallison and HiroPro waited until the very end before switching. They also felt the need to write a lengthy justification while the vote was already sealed. I find this quite interesting behaviour. It may not be suspicious, but file this away for later.
Note that neither was PARTICIPATING in the willz/yomi-controversy.
If willz and yomi are both innocent and either imallison or hiro are scum, they could have been waiting for a bandwagon to get going and jump on. Exactly as it happened. This behaviour is still plausible, but not as likely if one of Yomi/Willz is scum. In this case I would at the very least expect some soft defense while waiting it out. We will get to filters later.
There are four possible cases and I will go through them one by one:
Willz and Yomi both scum
The D1 happenings do not make a lot of sense to me in this case. My case on Willz came fairly early and there was plenty of time to make alternative cases. I find it extremely unlikely that scum would come up with an alternative case on another scum member, so if Yomi and Willz are both scum, then Xatalos (initial refocus on Yomi) is almost certainly town. Moreover, I see no reason for scum to voteswitch between the two, so if both are town, then KB and vonKlaust. Combining the reluctance to buss a scumbuddy and the lack of motivation to switch, that leaves the people who jumped on Yomi but not Willz (maybe scramble for town credit when it was clear that the lynch was between two scum): ArcticFox is the only one to do this. That leaves imallison, HiroPro and trumpetarn who lurked as a possible third scum. If this is the case, scum played D1 terribly (or very risky): they were waiting till the last minute to bandwagon someone else. If this is the case then the first people to hop on Brood are extremely suspect. However, I find it very implausible that this scenario happened. I will disregard it in future analysis.
Willz scum and Yomi town
Now Xatalos' case makes a LOT of sense. He is protecting his scumbuddy Willz from a lynch by focusing suspicion elsewhere. It is improbable that Acro would make the case on Willz (and same for Dittert). Due to assumption 1, it is unlikely that people voting for Willz are scum (with the exception of Xatalos, who could plausibly be said to vote to reduce suspicion and then invent a countercase). KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
Willz town and Yomi scum
Now Xatalos' case makes no sense at all: why buss a buddy with a likely candidate primed and ready? Same for KB and vonKlaust. It also means that Yomi's scumbuddies are hiding in the people who didn't vote for Yomi:
Two of: Acro, Dittert, HiroPro, imallison, trumpetarm are scum. If you want to speculate about me being scum, do so yourself. I'm not wasting time on that.
It leaves two of Dittert, HiroPro, imallison and trumpetarm.
Willz and Yomi both town
If both Willz and yomi are town, I see no reason for vote switches by scum as they frankly don't give a fuck. Xatalos, KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
We see that this behavioural analysis alone makes it very likely that vonKlaust and KB are probably town (and imho their filter is another indication. More so for vonKlaust than KB). We will keep the three possible cases in mind as we analyse D2 behaviour. So far the only significant thing that has happened is the Dittert/Xatalos case. So here goes: + Show Spoiler [D2 Dittert/Xatalos cases] +
Once again, four possibilitites, but now they have repercussions by taking D1 votes into account! Lets make the lists:
Dittert and Xatalos both scum
Xatalos' behaviour makes no sense. He is under suspicion and bandwagons his mafia buddy instead of just voting for Yomi based on his entire night of shitting up the thread with him. Only possible reason is if Yomi is the third scum and the scum is really confusing the shit up. This seems unlikely, because yomi's behaviour is inconsistent with being scumbuddy with Xata and Dittert. Why vote dittert in the first place? Seems extremely unlikely.
Dittert scum and Xatalos town
In this case, it is unlikely that Yomi is scum: despite the night spat he is sticking with the Dittert vote and only FoS'd Xatalos. Very weak case, Yomi can still switch at any point and while the bandwagon is going the right way there is no need to switch.
If Xatalos is town, that rules out situation 2 of D1, leaving:
A. Willz town and Yomi scum
One of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode is the missing scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town
Two of HiroPro, imallison, funcnode are scum.
Dittert town and Xatalos scum
People making the case on Xatalos are unlikely to be scum. Specifically HiroPro. Why make the case that refocuses on your scumbuddy when you can ride an easy mislynch? I also find it hard to think of a reason for anybody to switch, which leaves too few scums. This situation seems unlikely to me.
For the sake of completeness, it discards situations 3 and 4 of D1, leaving: Willz town and Yomi scum
In this case one of: imallison and funcnode is the missing scum. Both have switched to Xatalos, though, which seems like a strange buss.
Dittert and Xatalos both town
If we plug this information into the D1 results we get two possible D1 scenarios:
A. Willz town and Yomi scum
Two of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town
And by elimination: HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him.
+ Show Spoiler +[B]On April 17 2012 02:39 Acrofales wrote:
Funcnode was first Trumpetarn, whose filter is pretty much a blank page. Funcnode has since posted a list in which he sheeped the general opinion on pretty much everybody. He also decided Xatalos was scum, just like everybody else. This is neither scummy nor townie, but it doesn't help us at all. I am willing to give him the day off in the hope to get a clearer read. Replacing someone who afk'd out of the vote is not useful at all.
I'd like to clear a few things up here regarding myself;
While I think my list post probably followed much of the general consensus (vonK, Acro, KB town reads, Xatalos scum) I don't think it's fair to say I sheeped the general opinion on pretty much everybody. I defended Dittert and voted Xatalos while the vote was 5:4 respectively, and since then more people have decided Dittert is probably a townie after all.
I also placed Yomi further down my list of scum reads than the majority of others. For example your own list of scum at the end of N1 (in your "nightly reads" went as follows: 1. Willz 2. Dittert 3. Yomi.
Finally, I listed imallinson as my #3 scum read when very few people (if any at the time) were suspecting him anywhere near as much as Dittert, Xatalos, Yomi and HiroPro. I'm definitely going to invest some time investigating imallinson, as personally I think he's one of the more suspicious players that seems to have slipped under many people's radars.
As I said, I don't think it's fair to say given these points that I simply "sheeped the general opinion." Also, coming in to a thirty-something page thread with no previous experience of mafia, and taking over from someone who had built practically nothing of a foundation for me to build on shouldn't make me suspect for supposedly lurking and not much else. Just because I haven't had the same amount of time as people like yourself, KB and vonK to practically clear your own names (for now at least) shouldn't make me any more suspicious than any of you are.
I hope this doesn't come across as a sort of knee-jerk reaction to even the slightest suspicion of me, rather I'm simply trying to give my own perspective. Your analysis while solid seems to lump me in with people I think we have bigger reasons to be suspicious of. I appreciate though that your willing to "give me a day off" so you can get a clearer read on me, I just hope everyone else is willing to give me a similar sort of opportunity - and after reading your post, with the weight you carry in this thread, I feel like people will suspect me more than they should, at least at this point in time.
Just recently there's been a large swing in voting for HiroPro. I can see that lynching him would certainly give us some answers, but I'm just not convinced personally if he's the scummiest of reads right now, I think there's a lot of WIFOM involved in his implications. I'll read over his filter and the last few pages to see if it's worth a last minute vote switch.
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OK this case against HiroPro and by extension Dittert and after that most likely imallinson definitely has some merit.
Here's another post from imallinson that seems to soft-defend both Hiro and Dittert -
Show nested quote +I might even be somewhat inclined to vote for HiroPro instead of Dittert or yomi, but with this current situation of me/Dittert stalemate, I'm still going to keep my vote on Dittert (he has an infinitely higher chance of being Mafia than myself, after all...).
##FOS: HiroPro - I think Xatalos wrote the above quote - So we start with some good ol' OMGUS with absolutely no reasoning to back it up. Xatalos you might be 100% sure you are town but no one else is and you can't use it as reasoning in your arguments.
It also seems to strengthen my opinion on imallinson being quite suspicious.
However, the fact is, we've only flipped two townies so far, so while there's a general consensus of who's likely scum and who's likely town, we still don't really have anything truly solid to back it up. I'm really close to switching my vote to HiroPro, but I'm not going to do it just yet. I think Xatalos has done a good job defending himself given the circumstances, and Dittert has largely dropped off the radar since his name has been cleared some by Xatalos taking the heat.
I really hope Hiro can get a post in soon. I'd hate to lynch Xatalos and end up being wrong about it. Can anyone who's now voted for Hiro say anything that might convince me to do the same? If Hiro is scum, then Xatalos is most likely town, but what's your opinion, is he just noob-town that got too aggressive?
And no offence Xatalos, right now I still suspect you a fair bit so your own words might not have a huge amount of sway with me right now. You seem to be talking a lot of sense right now though, for what that's worth.
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Having read vonK's post on the previous page, I was thinking I'm ready to switch my vote to HiroPro. Just before posting, I refreshed the last page and wow, now I think I'm 100% convinced.
##Unvote
##Vote: HiroPro
I wonder though, is vonK's point regarding Dittert still being the stronger scum read over HiroPro at this point worth following through on this particular vote? I guess it goes without saying if we vote either and they come up scum, then whoever doesn't get voted will either be lynched the next day or vig'd during the night. But just in case, if Hiro/Dittert end up being town, are there worse consequences for voting Dittert or HiroPro now if that's the case?
HiroPro certainly hasn't contributed much, especially in D2, so right now I'm willing to give him the vote, but I was just wondering if people think it might still be better to lynch Dittert tonight or if it just doesn't matter.
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I just want to say as an aside, late last night when I was writing my first proper post trawling through the thread trying to give my opinions some substance, I questioned how anyone could ever find this game even slightly entertaining, it seemed like an epic reading session with minor bouts of arguing here and there. I don't think my opinion could have changed more in the last few hours, this is super intense! :D
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Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too.
Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)?
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Wow. I'm kind of speechless right now... I'm going to play some Dota while I ponder.
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I'm going to give my analysis of everyone's post since the lynching of HiroPro. For the record I began writing this post at about 5PM CET.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:02 willz22912 wrote:
For fucks sake.
- Suggests genuine disappointment.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:02 vonKlaust wrote:
Oh, Lol.
- Disbelief verging on amusement, a semi-genuine sense of disappointment.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:04 vonKlaust wrote:
Well fuck shit my hell. Sucky sucky I don't like this. I need to sleep, good night!
- Compounds earlier disappointment.
- 2 minutes, 2 posts but not much said (I'll expand on this later).
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:06 KharadBanar wrote:
.......
At least we now have a pretty solid read on Xatalos.
Also with that I'm off for the night, beginning work for my bachelor thesis tomorrow. Good Night!
-Points a finger at Xatalos.
-Hard to gauge much else from this post, excuses self-quickly but with sound reasoning, a some-what enthusiastic "Good Night!"?
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:06 Xatalos wrote:
........ Well, my theory is trashed then. I can't believe why he lurked so hard and never defended himself until now though. So, I guess... Dittert and imallinson town? Me and yomi suspicious? I'm not really sure where to go next anymore.
- To be fair, the switch from yourself to HiroPro happened in a matter of hours, it's reasonable to assume he just didn't have the chance to really defend himself given how quickly things happened and how close to the deadline it was. [This is really important and I'll expand on this later on]
- Slight confusion mongering, but suggests Dittert and imallinson are town but himself and Yomi are potentially suspicious.
- I get a slight sense of real confusion but overall a bit of a scummy vibe here, I don't get why you'd name yourself as suspicious except to include Yomi in it with you.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:07 willz22912 wrote:
That explains Hiro's lurking, he didn't want to draw attention to himself as a blue role.
Sigh, ok town is really fucked at this point since we're going to be at 5-3 at the end of this night. However, I'm taking a harder look at Acro, it was his lead here that got us to lynch Hiro and I know for sure I'm town and he made that case against me. It may be OMGUS on my part, but I'm willing to lynch him D3.
- A few minutes to think after his first post (which suggested genuine disappointment, frustration - which is echoed in the words of this post).
- The Hiro-lurking-to-avoid-attention-as-blue makes a lot of sense to me. He was town so obviously had nothing else to hide.
- Says will take a harder look at Acro but already willing to lynch him D3 - not sure yet if there's much in this but might be worth noting.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:12 Xatalos wrote:
Really elusive Mafia, they have blended in so well. I want to see what this means for the connections Acrofales has been spending his time with. And I guess my credibility just went down the drain... If Dittert and imallinson are town, and I know I'm town (although most will probably now think I'm Mafia), what's left? yomi? funcmode? Dunno. I don't know how we're going to win this now though, with no good leads, Doctor dead, even Acrofales under scrutiny. I'm going to sleep, maybe I can think of something for tomorrow.
- Again a bit of a confusion-mongering vibe from this post rather than genuine confusion himself.
- Again mentions Dittert and imallinson as likely town, and again points the finger at Yomi and now myself. I know I'm town, and I also get a bit of a null but semi-town read from Yomi. Planting seeds, I think if Xatalos is scum then Yomi and myself are probably the easiest people for him to begin to target next.
- Strong defense of Acrofales - "even Acrofales under scrutiny."
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:13 Acrofales wrote:
I am never ever trusting in connections again. I don't understand how I was so wrong. And that's why I belong in this noobie game. I understand I have lost your trust. I was really convinced we were on the right track. Well. We have a night to sort this mess out, rethink and regroup. Please do as Hiro asked, go over my filter. I have nothing to hide and will respond to whatever you want. I was wrong and completely misread Hiro's filter. Sorry. It's bedtime here in Spain too. See you tomorrow.
- Immediately cements himself as a noob (i.e. a town)
- Very defensive but the language used doesn't give me much of a scum or town read here.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote:
Haha, I really like the dramatic style in Hiro's last post. If this was a murder mystery movie it would be a super exciting one. I have actually been thinking about reading closer into Acros filter. I have had a feeling that I've been following him a tad too blindly. We'll see what happens. Now I really need to sleep.
Nighty night fellow townies! <3
Fuck you scum bastards. On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote:
EBWOWP: I reallize that maybe was a bit to harsh. I appologize, I love everyone.
- This post initially came off as a little strange to me. The "Haha" and bit about it being an exciting mystery movie seem to suggest a bit of a lackadaisical state of mind, as opposed to the frustration and disappointment I would expect from a townie at this moment.
- "Been thinking about" reading closer into Acro. "Had a feeling," "We'll see what happens" - this language seems a bit weird, a bit lazy and not super pro-town. I really want to believe vonK is town at this point but this post doesn't give much to go on.
- The end (<3 townies, fuck scum) I think could easily be something a town or scum would say, but then the EBWOWP and the fact that this is still only ~9 minutes after the announcement give it some more legitimacy in my eyes.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:26 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote:
Haha, I really like the dramatic style in Hiro's last post. If this was a murder mystery movie it would be a super exciting one. I have actually been thinking about reading closer into Acros filter. I have had a feeling that I've been following him a tad too blindly. We'll see what happens. Now I really need to sleep.
Nighty night fellow townies! <3
Fuck you scum bastards. LOL. I guess you could ask for the right to edit that, it's a bit... against the rules...? Sigh. I'm all out of ideas right now. Maybe the night shot will help a bit, but then it's already almost 50% share of us being Mafia. Maybe the Detective will make a lucky hit... Finding just ONE Mafia would make it so much easier to figure this all out. I guess yomi is Mafia after all? Although I can't really blame him for suspecting HiroPro - I and Acrofales did the same. Maybe I can think of something to contribute yet later. Good night!
- Again points the finger at Yomi, this is the third time in three seperate posts, in less than 25 minutes since the lynching.
- "LOL..." This line doesn't do much but distract, it's irrelevant and the "LOL" suggests a relatively upbeat mood but I don't think it's too much to read into.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:34 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 07:57 funcmode wrote:
Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too.
Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)? You have said you are suspicious of me but not really why. I can't respond unless I have something specific to respond to. As for you I have a completely neutral read you haven't posted enough for me to get a good read yet.
- This is his first post since the lynching, and doesn't even mention it. Doesn't seem the slightest bit concerned with the fact that we just lynched another townie and are losing the game. Only concerned with himself and quite deftly deflects my suspicions, doesn't contribute anything pro-town whatsoever.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 09:54 Dittert wrote:
Two times I come home from work and two times I see an idiotic bandwagon that results in the town lynching another townie.
I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again...
Sigh.
- This post comes off as a bit strange to me too. Suggests some genuine desperation/disappointment but also focuses negatively on town errors ("idiotic bandwagon," "so you can all ignore it again..."). This could be interpreted as a genuinely exasperated townie or a scum looking to make himself seem like one. I'm leaning slightly towards the former given past events but not by a whole lot. If Dittert is town he really needs to start being genuinely more pro-town and stop being so defeatist.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 15:06 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 09:54 Dittert wrote:
Two times I come home from work and two times I see an idiotic bandwagon that results in the town lynching another townie.
I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again...
Sigh. Here you go again... It wasn't idiotic, it looked like the best Mafia read in my eyes. And had he been Mafia, his flip would have also heavily implicated you and imallinson. Of course since he wasn't (in hindsight, which you seem to love), this doesn't reveal too much about player relations. All I can think of is that yomi is more suspicious, I am more suspicious, Acrofales is more suspicious. imallinson is less suspicious, Dittert is less suspicious. I guess HiroPro was just being genuinely AFK and arrived to the thread at convenient timings for himself. OR he was lurking and trying to hide his role (which I don't like at all, since he could get easily Vigi shot at night for example). However, one thing occurred to me: is there a real reason for myself, yomi or Acrofales to push for HiroPro if we'd be Mafia and Dittert town? In that case, Dittert was already on the road to being lynched, but we noticed a possible connection between HiroPro and Dittert and decided to lynch HiroPro instead. Me & yomi as a Mafia team doesn't really make sense either, we have been opposed whole game even while the discussion focus has been elsewhere. In addition, nobody really stepped in to defend either of us, which makes me think this could have been a heated/vocal town & town argument. Mafia & town is still somewhat possible, though. I'll read through Acrofales's filter a bit later to determine if there is sense in HiroPro's accusations. I'll also have to read vonKlaust's filter. I think he's town at the moment, but he has kind of avoided attention so far and followed the town "consensus" quite eagerly. Funcmode can't be read very effectively yet, but his first analysis post was... A bit lacking, and possibly just meant for continued flying under the radar. I should also read the filters of KharadBanar and Dittert again while at it.
-Lots in here to look at, first suggests the bandwagon (which he started) wasn't idiotic. Gives himself credibility.
-Suggests Hiro's flip doesn't reveal much about player relations - convenient as Hiro's last post condemned both Xatalos and Acro.
-Suggests suspicion initially (again, 4th time) of Yomi. Then expands by saying himself, Acro are also more suspicious. But imallinson and Dittert are less suspicious.
-Wonders if there's a 'real' reason why himself, Yomi or Acro would push for a vote on Hiro if they were mafia and Dittert is town. I think there is - Hiro wasn't in the spotlight at all and by successfully bandwagoning a townie they leave themselves another potential later lynching candidate in Dittert. If Dittert is town, his play so far has been pretty weak and so I think saving him as an easy lynch target later on could be a very viable reason.
-Strange comment on himself and Yomi, not sure what it really means.
-Then casts doubt on vonK, myself, KharadBanar and Dittert.
- In summary, a whole lot of nothing, doesn't contribute much besides pointing fingers everywhere, doubting reasons as to why himself (and Acro, Yomi) as mafia would bandwagon Hiro if Dittert is town. This whole post comes off as quite scummy to me.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 15:20 Xatalos wrote:
We are now on the brink of defeat, but I just had a brilliant idea: the Detective should reveal his Night 1 check and analysis based on that at the deadline of Night 2. So that even if Mafia shoot him now, his knowledge will be shared, and if they weren't going to shoot him, they don't have enough time to switch to him anymore. Best case scenario, he lives and can now share two Detective checks. Worst case scenario, he dies but we now have one 100% confirmed Detective check. In either case, hugely more information than we have right now.
-Suggests a detective check reveal could provide more information than we currently have. Given the current ratio of town:mafia, mafia claiming could screw things up immensely at this point. Either stupid or scummy.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 17:58 Acrofales wrote:
Either there is no DT, or his dissemination of the information during D1 was too obscure for me to read. I really don't like DT claims, though. They add too much wifom. Because we are at lylo, a mafia claiming DT is a really shitty situation. I do NOT want to spend D3 debating the truthfulness of a DT check and the time for claiming is not tonight (and probably not tomorrow either).
I have thought about yesterday and realised that a couple of my assumptions about mafia behaviour are probably too strong. I have been focusing on the mafia agenda of getting townies lynched. I reread Incognito's general guide and realised I have been focusing too much on trying to find mafia defending each other. That may not even have been necessary. Lets take another look at the D2 events.
The first thing that happened was that Dittert came under pressure. Regardless of whether Dittert is town, or scum, there was plenty of time in the day for mafia to turn that around. HiroPro posted his suspicions of Xatalos. At the time there were two possible explanations: HiroPro was town and convinced he had a scumread on Xatalos, or HiroPro was scum and pushing Xatalos for his own agenda. We now know that the former was the case.
The second event was that the suspicions of town moved from Dittert to Xatalos and the town went completely silent. This seems to me to lead to one of three inevitable conclusions:
1. Xatalos is town and mafia was content to just let the lynch happen.
2. Xatalos is scum and mafia was hoping someone like me stepped in... or were waiting a little bit longer to do it themselves.
3. Xatalos and Acrofales are scumbuddies.
Now, I happen to know that the third scenario is false, but feel free to convince yourselves of that fact. I'll be here to answer all your questions and accusations. I thought I had the game completely figured out, but I clearly don't and other people's opinions are most welcome. That leaves the former two as possibilities.
I am slightly inclined toward the former, because the second situation implies a LOT of risk.
The third event of the day was that I posted this reasoning, and drew the conclusion that HiroPro and Dittert were a possible scum axis. This was clearly wrong, but I still think my reasoning about Xatalos is probably right.
Looking over the scum guides and the two games I have played as scum, mafia really dislike to put their opinion out there. There are LOTS of things I don't like about Xatalos' play, but there is one thing he has undeniably done: he is flapping his mouth about every little thing he can think of in this game. He has either improved his scumplay IMMENSELY since GoT mafia, or he is town. I am not normally a fan of meta-arguments, but his play is so different from in GoT, that he is either a chameleon, or town.
That leaves the last little bit of the game yesterday. Everybody jumped on the HiroPro bandwagon because of my convincing arguments and my rather hastily thrown together case (and other people's cases too). The only conclusion I can draw from that at the moment (I promise more in my nightly reads post) is that HiroPro did not play his town role particularly well.
That was the real eye opener to me: I have been using reasoning and logic to analyse others' playstyle and rational approach to this game. I have been focusing too hard on what people are saying and not when they are saying it. I have some new suspicions, that I promise to post in my nightly reads.
However, before the night ends, I want to do something I was actually rather opposed to. I want to call out a possible vigilante to please shoot Dittert. Regardless of his alignment, he is not helping town. Here is my case on why Dittert needs to be shot, regardless of his alignment.
Because I am completely and utterly null on Dittert, I will assume the worst case scenario, which is that he is town.
Tomorrow we will be at lylo. That means we lynch scum, or lose. This, as someone (willz, I think) pointed out, is regardless of whether we shoot a townie or not. Conclusion: the vig MUST shoot tonight, and imho he should shoot Dittert.
Dittert has not been contributing. He has been attacked and defended a number of times by different people, making him a good source of information.
However, most importantly is the vote count. If we are onto scum tomorrow, scum will NOT vote for him. Assuming all scum is alive, that leaves 3 votes on a townie. Dittert has guaranteed his absence from the voting the last two days. His last post on D1 was at 22:54 (9 hours before the deadline) and his last post on D2 was at 00:53 (7 hours before the deadline). Both times town switched in the last few hours before the deadline and Dittert was not around to comment, steer us back on track or agree and vote with town. That means that if we find scum after Dittert has left to work, it is one less vote to count on switching, leaving it 4 town votes and 3 scum votes: the exact same situation as if we shoot him. If we shoot someone ELSE who turns out to be town, that's 3 town votes and 3 scum votes. Ergo, a race against the clock to get our votes on scum before they vote for the townie (or blindly following whoever Dittert votes for, which I am unwilling to do).
So, vig, either be 100% certain you are shooting scum, or shoot Dittert:
1. He has a good chance of being scum (50/50 in my book at the moment, which is remarkably one of my best scum reads: my confidence has been damaged since my completely wrong read yesterday and am in the process of reevaluating)
2. He would give town some good info by flipping
3. He is a liability to town due to his prolonged absense around the deadline (timezones suck, I know).
-Shuts down Xatalos's idea regarding DT claim. The first paragraph comes across as quite pro-town.
-Argues the most likely scenario regarding Xatalos during the Dittert/Xatalos vote-swing is that he's town, and suggests Xatalos being scum would require the mafia to have played risky in waiting for a town-Acro to step in. The fact that he did step in though doesn't give him much credit on this observation. Obviously he denies himself being scum with Xatalos as his scumbuddy, though that's really starting to strike me as the most obvious explanation here.
-Admits reasoning for HiroPro lynch was wrong, but defends Xatalos more.
-Quotes guides in a manner that give himself credibility, suggests Xatalos' scumplay is either unbelievably amazing or he's town.
-Makes a point regarding HiroPro not playing his town role well, takes attention away from the fact that it was his case and points it back at the innocent Hiro.
-Calls out a vig-shot on Dittert. His case here does have some solid points (mostly the fact that Dittert if town really hasn't contributed as much as he could have). I personally get a scum read from this though, and I'm not comfortable with convincing the vig to shoot Dittert just because if he is town he wasn't necessarily useful. That just strikes me as incredibly convenient for Acro both as an excuse if Dittert flips town and if Acro is indeed scum. If Acro is town, I don't think he'd be pushing so hard for a vig-shot on someone he personally admits as only being 50/50.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 18:46 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, thanks for the post. I guess you have a point about the DT check confusing discussion. I'm just worried about the possibility that the DT will get shot tonight without getting to share his information at all.
If I can use the fact that I know I'm town as a part of my analysis (like you did), that means I don't really believe you are Mafia. Why risk your credibility with pushing the vote to HiroPro (whom you would know to be town) instead of just letting me get lynched and go after HiroPro next. I can't see any kind of a Mafia motivation for your actions on Day 2 (unless we would be both Mafia, and I know that to be false). Thus, it means HiroPro's last will was completely pointless and I'm going to ignore it for now. Also, it means my town flip would make you like 0,1% chance of Mafia in the general discussion.
Dittert... I agree he would be the "safest" Vigi shot, in case there is a Vigi who previously saved his shot. Okay chance of being Mafia (although less likely with HiroPro's town flip) and the smallest loss with a town flip.
I'll also make a big analysis post later under the assumption that Acrofales is town (most pro-town play + the reasons I mentioned earlier in this post). I'm quite certain Acrofales will be shot now that the Doctor is dead, but it might also be KharadBanar or even me (although not as likely). Definitely not Dittert (if he is town, Mafia would love to keep him
alive the most of all). So I, Acrofales and KharadBanar should give our best reads before deadline in case we get shot next. I don't have any solid top lynch read after my perfect-feeling theory got crushed, but maybe I can notice the signs of Mafia better after this: it's not necessarily defending each other that much, but quietly spreading suspicion and staying out of suspicion yourself. I'll try looking at possible connections too, though (maybe not directly defending, but not arguing directly with each other and reluctance to vote/bandwagon each other).
-Immediately defends Acro (again).
-Suggests Hiro's last post was "completely pointless" - incredibly convenient given it incriminates both Xatalos and Acro as the prime suspects.
-Agrees with Acro that Dittert is the safest vig-shot.
-Will write a big post later under the assumption that Acro is town (keep saying it maybe it will stick).
-Makes himself out as a bit of a noob.
-Says defending each other isn't necessarily a mafia trait, kind of convenient given his last few posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 23:13 Acrofales wrote:Given that this is the last will of a townie, I think it is only fair I address it. Show nested quote +
Lynch Xatalos. Easy step. Obviously you do that first thing in the daytime. Don't listen to anything he has to say. Don't address him or tell him anything; just lynch him.
I don't disagree that Xatalos needs another look at. I am not convinced he's town, but as I said in my previous post, I find it very unlikely that he his scum, given the complete lack of people willing to defend him from Hiro's accusations, which was quite a good case. While I was not expecting a chainsaw defense, I would have expected someone to refer back to Dittert and why he was so scummy once the Xatalos bandwagon was going nicely. The problem with a Xatalos scum is thus not that he is unscummy, it's that he seems to be playing alone. Add that to his completely different meta and I am for now willing to believe Xata is town. Show nested quote +
DO NOT LISTEN TO WHAT ACROFALES SAYS. I know many of you have Acrofales as a very strong town read. I don't; Acrofales has been a scum read in my notes since day 1. I don't have the time to fully outline a case against Acrofales, but I'll try to summarize my thoughts here. Read through his filter closely.
Please do. I agree that my analysis on HiroPro was completely and utterly wrong. I found a group of 5 players in which I thought it was likely the scum was hiding (I was wrong in discarding Dittert, so it was actually 6 players). I may have gotten confirmation bias, or I just had a completely faulty read on HiroPro because his playstyle is quite erratic. In either case, I made a mistake and realise that my pushing the case on a townie makes me suspect. I don't want to be blindly sheeped. I want everybody here to play the game actively, posting their reads and analyses, asking each other questions and trying to hunt scum. There was quite a lack of scumhunting in D2. Show nested quote +
Acrofales does not post actual analysis; instead what he does is call out certain people who are not posting and then proceed to make "connections" between certain people who he will arbitrarily label as scummy.
Huh? I don't think you have understood my posts at ALL if that is what you think. If you don't understand the logic in one of my posts, I am happy to explain it, but I have so far posted exactly what I am understanding of people's play and motivations. There is definitely nothing "arbitrary" about it. Nevertheless, I am not going to argue that my non-arbitrariness is townie. I make very deliberate posts regardless of my alignment. The townie part comes from the fact that rather than searching for the player who I can most easily label as scum and focusing on his bad behaviour, as I do as scum, I have been actively analysing ALL players in the game and trying to find which is scummiest, even if the case is not an easy one to make. Show nested quote +
By basing all of his cases on these "connections", Acrofales avoids taking responsibility for votes and reads. Everything is already set out for him and indisputable.
Au contraire, my dear fellow. I lay out my assumptions and the entire logical reasoning. Everybody can follow it and draw their own conclusions. I would be VERY happy to be discussing this with anyone. I believe my connections make sense, but my logic is NOT infallible as imallison kindly pointed out. I would love for people to poke holes in it. It should also not be taken ALONE. If you look at the way I used the information: I analysed the connections, drew my conclusions and went over people's filters to see who I thought was most likely to be scum. Unfortunately, I was completely wrong on that account. And with me, at least 3 other townies (7 votes, of which 3 may or may not be scum). Show nested quote +These connection posts do not help town; all they do is get people speculating on which people are sided with certain other people and thus must be either both town or both mafia. It distracts from actual reads and scum-hunting. I once again disagree. Voting analysis to find connections is a valid style of scumhunting and has been applied successfully in quite a variety of mafia games here, although it works best after actually finding a mafia. It has a high degree of speculation, but lets be honest, so does textual analysis of someone's filter. Now I know I may not convince you, so here is people discussing it on mafiascum: clicky. I do think that my assumptions may be wrong. I can think of some reasons to voteswitch as mafia, if the two targets are both innocent. + Show Spoiler [meme] +Show nested quote +
I have no clear reads on the third mafia member (and the small reads I can post on the people I have not mentioned are not worth posting). Good luck searching for him.
If you think there is some sort of connection between myself and Dittert (aka been listening too much to Acrofales/yomi), get rid of that thought. My flip shows absolutely nothing about Dittert - I have no connection whatsoever to him. He is neither strongly town nor strongly mafia in my view. That being said, I have a slight town read on him. Ignore the first 2 days and evaluate him based on what you see in the coming day/night period. DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF FOR SOME REASON YOU THINK HE IS MAFIA (Lynch Xatalos, then Acrofales).
DO NOT LYNCH FOR INFORMATION. Focus on what people say, how they say it, and go with your strongest mafia read.
I agree we should definitely not lynch for information. I wish you had posted your unprocessed reads, rather than this will, but I just died in SS Mafia and know what it feels like to have not disseminated all the information you had and can understand you were strapped for time. I am sorry I found you scummy, but I still don't see much wrong with my reasoning (except for the factual errors that vK pointed out).
-Xatalos seems to be playing alone - really?
-Discredits virtually all of Hiro's last post which condemned both Acro and Xatalos.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote:
ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting.
##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike. If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.) Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments. They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter.
-This whole post comes across as very pro-town, largely in part because it agrees with many of the things I'm currently thinking.
-(/facepalm) suggests some genuine townie disappointment.
-Comments on defense of Acro by Xatalos.
-Brings something new to the table (both winners in a previous mafia as scum which gives them an extra out with meta arguments, admits it's flimsy but still worthy of noting.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 23:31 Acrofales wrote:
Now, at everybody else who is still alive. We are BEHIND on scumhunting and got a blue killed during D2 instead of managing to nab a scumster, but we can still win this game.
@Willz. I am still on the fence about you. You got active and posted your reads when you were under heavy pressure. Since then you have gone dormant again. Top 3 scum reads please.
@KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why.
@Xata. While my analysis indicates you're town, your posting has been completely hopeless. Your filter is unreadable and you put far too much stock in speculation about mafia motives. So on the one hand I think you're town, on the other you have some very scummy traits. I would really like a non-waffly post from you clearly stating who you think is scum, who you think is town and why.
@funcnode. I liked your play at the end of D2, it was very sensible, but I still don't have a good idea of what you are. Please keep posting.
@everybody else. Please be more active. Ask each other questions, post your reads. Don't let mafia hide in inactivity.
-Again suggests Xatalos is town (I've lost count).
-Admits Xatalos is useless, the same excuse to vig-shot Dittert, however here used in context to defend Xatalos, mentioning he thinks Xatalos is town twice in only 4 sentences.
-Whole point of post could be perceived as a diversion.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 00:02 yomi wrote:Well my biggest read is xat and I kind of have blinders on for him right now. All I can think about is who his teammates are but I need to take a few steps back and consider others. My biggest question is how is hiro so sure of xat? He seems 1000% sure. I am thinking about this Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 08:41 GreYMisT wrote:
Doctors and Doctorees are notified of a succsessful protect But nothing is coming to me right now that is really viable. So I trust hiro now obviously since we know he is town and he was dead set on xat and he was my top guy until late last night as well. I'm pretty much stuck on xat atm.
-Points what I can only agree as a very sensibly pointed finger at Xatalos.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise)
-I initially had imallinson pegged as quite scummy, and him being scum still made a lot of sense to me given my own current reads, up until he came and posted this, which basically agrees with everything I'm thinking myself.
-I feel like if Xatalos and Acro are scum, which right now seems like quite a high probability, then imallinson is town. It seems unlikely he'd want to out the other two scum, though if it gives him massive credibility maybe it's worth it.
-Overall a very pro-town read from this post, virtually of it's points I agree with.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 01:52 Acrofales wrote:Okay, I see I missed a post by Willz and it is an interesting one too. I am sorry, but this post reaks of wifom. I can smell this setup a mile away and I would like to show the entire town how it works. Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. I completely agree and will be posting actively! Show nested quote +However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote:
ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting.
##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. We can in no way shape or form assume Hiro did such a thing. However, scum fearing that a medic would protect me is a plausible reason not to shoot me. I agree that my goodbye post summarised Arctic's death quite succinctly. I cannot prove the second situation is not true unless I die, but the mere fact that situation is in your minds should've made Willz think before posting he posted the rest of his WIFOM. Show nested quote +
Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike.
Agreed about the DT bit. Why are you linking the DT bit to his defense of me, though? Show nested quote +
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.)
Hrmmm, how about this for a catch 22 scenario. However, this is particularly insidious wifom. It is wifom about stuff that hasn't even happened yet. You are planting the idea, so that if I am not shot, all you have to do is refer back here and say: see, he must be scum. I refuse to wifom your wifom, but suffice it to say this awarded you qutie a few points on my scumometer. Show nested quote +
Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments.
Bingo, another catch 22. If I (and Xata) were to have the same style as in GoT mafia, we would clearly be mafia: we have the same style. However, by changing our style we are ALSO clearly mafia, because we would totally have changed up our playstyle! The whole point why meta-arguments work is because it is VERY difficult to change your playstyle. In other words: confirmation bias much? Show nested quote + They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. And another catch 22? If I act townie I am clearly scum, because I am NOT doing anything scummy! The whole point of this game is that mafia does not want to help scumhunt, wants to shit up the thread and wants to stay hidden. That case can be made against Xatalos, but I am finding it harder and harder to read him accurately. Suffice it to say, his playstyle is EXTREMELY different from GoT. He is also only displaying one of the many scum tells: he shits up the thread with useless wifom. Other than that he is (hyper)active and willing to commit to his cases (and makes them. I challenge you to find a single focused case by Xatalos in GoT mafia). Which reminds me, Willz, have you committed to anything yet, this game, except for your erroneous BroodKing case?Willz managed to drop off my scumometer in the whole D2 debacle, but this post just reminded me of why I fingered him as scum in the first place. Thanks! Show nested quote +Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter.
HiroPro was town, not an oracle. If you and your scumbuddies really manage to convince the town to lynch me, you will see that a townie can still be completely and absolutely 100% wrong: I was on HiroPro and he is about me.
-States Willz's post (which condemns Acro and Xatalos) reeks of WIFOM.
-Dismisses several credible points as catch-22's, bit of a OMGUS.
-States the fact he was wrong about Hiro is enough to dispute Hiro's case against himself, while suggesting Willz is scum. Again somewhat of an OMGUS.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting  If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum.
-This post seems to try and spread doubt amongst those accusing Acro and Xatalos ('Oh but think about who else it could be if Xatalos is town!). The reality (I think) is that you two are the most scummy reads right now and if Xatalos is scum (if not, remember he is useless - your own words) then it also means you are probably scum - this is right now I think the best thing we have to go on. Who do you think is the scum if you and Xatalos aren't? These are the things you should be posting if you're actually town to defend yourself, rather than trying to get others to start second-guessing themselves.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 02:13 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) This post looks somewhat suspicious. Partly because it reminds me of a post I made in GoT as Mafia, but mostly because it's a really contentless post with WIFOM or non-existent reasoning (and random notes of confidence/doubt to various players). You say your top Mafia read is me, yet your reason for that is "posts way too much". Really? If anything, I'd say "posts too little" would be a Mafia tell. And even if "posts too much" was a good Mafia tell, you say nothing else that would make me your top Mafia read. Really hard bandwagoning and casting suspicion without evidence. Your reason for Acrofales as the second Mafia is pure WIFOM. Your only reason for him being Mafia is that he's been defending me, although nothing else truly points at him being Mafia (or me being a highly likely Mafia for that matter, although I sadly can't say I would have played purely pro-town). Your reason for vonKlaust as the third Mafia is basically... non-existent. He's far from the only player who has during this game been flying under the radar (I'd say you're more guilty of that than vonKlaust). Your reasoning in this post is exceptionally weak, almost malicious. Acrofales and vonKlaust have been generally among the highest town reads for the whole game, yet you're ready to discredit and/or kill them both for very weak reasons. Your point about killing me first to confirm them is yet again weak reasoning, since when I flip town with the lynch, Mafia has already won.
-Shoots down imallinson's scumreads on Xatalos, Acro and vonK.
-Lots of random meta stuff, doesn't mean much to me.
-Comes across as a strong defense but not pro-town.
-Has spent the night defending himself and Acro, while doing practically nothing to actually scumhunt himself besides pointing the finger back at the people accusing him.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 02:31 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us.
Maybe I'm going too deep, but don't you mean OUR own doctor, not THEIR own Doctor? Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long.
So you're planning to shoot KharadBanar or vonKlaust instead of Acrofales, then get him lynched tomorrow with the support of HiroPro's last will about him - and planting baseless suspicion on him such as this? I feel really bad about this, since I almost single-handedly saved you from lynching (convinced everyone to vote for yomi, which caused the stupid slip from BroodKingEXE). I was convinced by your defense while under lynch pressure, but you haven't done almost anything of worth after that. And now you post something like this, with horrible Mafia slips and obvious Mafia agenda. I'm disappointed in believing you earlier...
-This post actually makes a bit of sense but could equally be interpreted as just more Acro defense, deriving mafia slips and mafia agenda from two highlighted sentences, only one of which has any sort of merit. The bit about Acro/KB/vonK is interesting though.
I'm ending my analysis here for now, I refreshed the page and see there are a number of additional posts which I'll try and address in a sort of conclusion;
The first thing I want to comment on is people's initial reactions after the lynching of Hiropro, the doctor. One would expect (as this is how I felt myself - my mind was racing and I didn't know what to think) as a townie to feel shocked, lost for words, confused and even angry. Scum on the other hand obviously know what's coming, so are more likely to have clearer heads and more concise posts at this point. A lot of people posted short, disbelieving responses after the lynching which to me gives those people a fair amount of town cred. Xatalos' and Acro's initial replies are definitely of the more thought-out responses at the time and one could argue (as I've tried) that they have clear goals already minutes after the lynching.
The other thing I want to point out right now, is during D2 the vote was in favour of lynching Xatalos. Xatalos then fingers Hiro and goes on a posting spree and the bandwagon begins. Acro is the first to cast his vote against Hiro, followed by KB and then Xatalos himself. The fact that the two of you effectively lead the vote-switch that lead to saving Xatalos and lynching the doctor who then condemned the both of you is highly incriminating in my opinion. There's been a lot of discrediting Hiro's last statement from both of you, defending each other, and pointing fingers elsewhere without much to really go on.
This case against Willz has some merit maybe, but there's a long way to go before I can begin to believe that both Acro and Xatalos are both town.
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On April 18 2012 08:03 vonKlaust wrote:
Alright. One positivt thing actually comes from this. Now we know for sure that all of Acros' reads were genuine. I'm going to bed, see you tomorrow.
Was going to post essentially the same thing. This definitely sheds some light on things.
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Here's where I'm at right now;
First I'll address my defense of Willz's post, which I stated sounded very pro-town based on the fact that it agreed strongly with my own reads at the time (specifically Acro and Xatalos being a scummy tagteam - based largely on HiroPro's last statement and the seemingly great lengths both were willing to go to defend each other). You (Xatalos) state that I was the only person to defend his post which "everyone called as "weird", "suspicious" or even "the most scummy post in the game."" The reality is, only you and Acro originally called out the post as suspicious, which is obviously to be expected as it focused on both of you specifically. Only later did KB come out and say it sounded a bit suspect. Everyone else (Yomi, imallinson, Dittert and vonK) let it mostly slip under the radar. So I don't think it's fair to call me out on defending this post in the manner you did, especially since the underlying theory behind why I agreed with it and cited the post as "pro-town" ended up being completely false anyway.
Moving on, I have a 99% town read on KB. If he knew I was town (aka he was mafia) it would have been easy for him to agree with the above accusation but instead he readily disputes it. Based on the fact that I know I'm town, there's no reason for him to do this other than him being town also. The only other alternative is that both of us are scum, which the two of us already know isn't true.
After KB, the most townie read I'm getting is actually from Xatalos. Either you're a really, really good mafia or well, you're town obviously. Without a doubt the most active poster alongside the now proven townie Acro (who also went out of his way to defend Xatalos especially recently). There were (at times accurate) accusations of excessive clutter and lack of real direction, but I think you've definitely stepped up in that respect while maintaining a very active presence and pro-town attitude throughout the thread. Definitely worthy of congratulations if you end up winning as mafia, but for now I'm getting quite a strong town read. If though, Willz gets lynched and flips green, without a doubt Xatalos is scum but by that point it's already too late.
Next on my least-scummy list would be vonK - though it's worth noting his presence recently has been a shadow of what it was earlier in the thread. He's slowly becoming slightly more suspicious, but already had a fair amount of town credibility based on the way he's been posting. I'm desperate to see what he thinks about the current Xatalos vs. Willz dispute, which could make or break the game right now. Overall a town read but some skepticism pending his next real post.
After this it all starts getting a bit more hazy. Willz, Yomi, Dittert and imallinson's contributions to the thread have overall I think been rather lacking (I know coming from me this doesn't necessarily have much credibility but the point still stands). It wouldn't surprise me at all for any 3 of these 4 being the scum team. Dittert's posts and mentality confuse me a fair bit, the others just don't seem to have the most pro-town agenda even when themselves are being suspected.
I'm not discounting Xatalos potentially being scum, but I do think one of either Xatalos or Willz has to be, and at this moment I'm leaning towards Willz. So much so I think I might even be more concerned with the matter of - if we lynch Willz/Xatalos and they are scum, where does that leave us in terms of finding the other 2? Perhaps trying to make a case for Willz/x/x or Xatalos/x/x is the best way of going forward, I'm not sure.
If Willz and Xatalos ended up actually both being town, then that leaves Yomi, Dittert, imallinson and maybe even vonK as possible suspects - which to me is still totally plausible though far less likely than either Willz or Xatalos being involved.
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On April 19 2012 19:38 Xatalos wrote:
Lynching Dittert is the safest bet right now, and Willz is certainly Mafia as I reasoned earlier, but I'd like to add why Funcmode is very likely Mafia as well (sorry about the look of this post; I can't make it look as shiny as my Willz case while on my phone and in a hurry).
So far Funcmode has made exactly 3 posts with any kind of content. In the first he made a small list of his town/Mafia reads (without much reasoning, if any) and each of those "unique" reads pretty much parroted the general consensus at the time. It was the minimum amount of contribution he could make to continue flying under the radar, while not actually saying anything new. His second post actually had some of his own thoughts in it, but it was such a huge and pointless block of text that mostly everyone seemed to ignore/forget it right away. His third post was similar to his first: not saying anything new, just repeating what had already been said by others. The theme of his posts seems to be "forgettable, rephrased, pointless".
The ONLY unique/new thing he has said all game (!!!) is that he thought the "most scummy post" by Willz was actually a "very pro-town post". Granted, it's not yet proven 100% that Willz is Mafia, but I can't really explain Willz's actions as town actions anymore, so this out-of-place defense for Willz is pretty suspicious in my eyes. He also had some other vague opinions in that huge wall of text (second relevant post), such as me and Acrofales maybe being a Mafia team, which is clearly now proved false.
About every other player I can say they have at least contributed SOMETHING, however minimal. But Funcmode has been just hiding behind the general consensus and not making non-vague accusations, pressure, or pretty much anything at all. He strikes me as a player only interested in hiding and blending in, not at all interested in finding Mafia or bringing anything new to the table. Such apathy and hesitation about the most important goal for townies can only be explained by one thing: being Mafia.
I don't want to spend any significant amount of time arguing my defense today, as we have far more pressing issues. Given than I'm not exactly at the centre of attention, it would be a waste of time and resources given how important today is. I'll simply reiterate my previous post regarding my defense of Willz;
On April 19 2012 06:49 funcmode wrote:First I'll address my defense of Willz's post, which I stated sounded very pro-town based on the fact that it agreed strongly with my own reads at the time (specifically Acro and Xatalos being a scummy tagteam - based largely on HiroPro's last statement and the seemingly great lengths both were willing to go to defend each other). You (Xatalos) state that I was the only person to defend his post which "everyone called as "weird", "suspicious" or even "the most scummy post in the game."" The reality is, only you and Acro originally called out the post as suspicious, which is obviously to be expected as it focused on both of you specifically. Only later did KB come out and say it sounded a bit suspect. Everyone else (Yomi, imallinson, Dittert and vonK) let it mostly slip under the radar. So I don't think it's fair to call me out on defending this post in the manner you did, especially since the underlying theory behind why I agreed with it and cited the post as "pro-town" ended up being completely false anyway.
(Pay attention to the bold bit)
I'm still trying to determine what I really think about this DT claim, it's certainly very suspect and one could argue shouldn't be trusted simply because of the current state of the game. The lack of activity from vonK and Yomi is also especially troubling. I'm going to ponder further and go back through some filters to try and come up with any kind of real conclusion. (And Xatalos, before you beat me to it, I know this will probably register with you as another "nothing" post in an attempt to remain under the radar - rather I'd prefer to not jump in and make any hasty conclusions, this has only proven to be a bad idea. As a townie, the more you throw me into your case makes it harder for me to believe in it).
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I don't understand Yomi's vote... isn't the mass confusion play he's agreeing with Willz's point, who suggested voting Xatalos, not Dittert?
I'm so confused right now...
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On April 20 2012 03:27 Dittert wrote:
@vonKlaust - Yes, I'm currently dead unless one of Xat, iamallinson, or yomi switches off me, and even then the remaining players all have to vote for the same person. It seems likely that I will die and this is gg.
For everyone else, we absolutely can not afford a mislynch. Right now, the only people you should be voting for are KB or myself. If you think I'm lying, then I must be mafia and vote me. If you think I'm telling the truth, vote KB so we can get a verified scum out of the game. Any other decision is illogical.
If only everything was so simple. While you definitely have a point (you're DT, KB is scum 100%, or you're scum 100%) the fact that there's a good chance the other mafia are potentially bussing you right now makes the whole situation far more complicated.
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On April 20 2012 03:29 vonKlaust wrote:Ooooh, this is very interesting to me. This could defenitly be a scumslip. This piece of statistics is correct, assuming you know that he is town. If you don't know that he is town, the chances of him being DT is 1/7.
I thought about that myself, but figured as there can only be 4 town remaining, and the DT obviously has to be a town, then 25% is still correct. You don't have to know he's town to make this point - if he's scum he's not DT, if he's town there is a 25% chance. I hope you understand what I mean, either way I'm not sure how much you can really conclude from this sort of "error".
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On April 20 2012 03:32 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 03:31 funcmode wrote:On April 20 2012 03:27 Dittert wrote:
@vonKlaust - Yes, I'm currently dead unless one of Xat, iamallinson, or yomi switches off me, and even then the remaining players all have to vote for the same person. It seems likely that I will die and this is gg.
For everyone else, we absolutely can not afford a mislynch. Right now, the only people you should be voting for are KB or myself. If you think I'm lying, then I must be mafia and vote me. If you think I'm telling the truth, vote KB so we can get a verified scum out of the game. Any other decision is illogical. If only everything was so simple. While you definitely have a point (you're DT, KB is scum 100%, or you're scum 100%) the fact that there's a good chance the other mafia are potentially bussing you right now makes the whole situation far more complicated. Wait what? Why would they do that?
Have you not been reading Willz's posts?
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For the record, at this point, I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing with Willz's posts, I'm simply stating they they do explain potential reasoning for a Xatalos/imallinson/Dittert scum team bussing Dittert to further their case against Willz, who if they save for later is a potentially easy mis-lynch, which to me is still an entirely possible scenario.
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@Willz - If you're right about the Dittert/Xatalos/imallinson scum team, then lynching Xatalos tonight instead of Dittert makes some sense. But, as it stands, Xatalos' case against you links you with Dittert. And you're argument for them bussing Dittert also obviously means Dittert has to be scum.
It's very hard for me to throw my support entirely behind either of these claims, as both seem reasonable. However, the one thing they all hinge on is Dittert being scum. Let me put it another way, if we lynch Dittert tonight and he's scum, the game goes on. If we lynch Xatalos, who right now to me has a higher chance than Dittert of being town, the game might go on, with potentially better evidence to move forward, but if he is town, the game ends (and I guess you win?)
So, while I agree that there may be more benefit to lynching Xatalos if he does flip scum, do you not agree that Dittert is still a safer lynch target? You said yourself that at least until we have a scum flip, we have to lynch the strongest scum read.
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OK, for whatever reason I didn't make that link between you not voting Dittert because doing so would be pointless. Makes perfect sense now.
Still leaves me in a bit of an awkward situation. Dittert's last post actually makes some sense... Though I'm still having trouble making sense of things if Dittert really is the DT...
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EPT![[image loading]](http://edge.alluremedia.com.au/m/k/2010/11/phoenix-wright-objection.jpg)
