EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
I have to head to work in a few minutes, but I wanted to post my initial thoughts about the opening of the game: GMarshal stated that mafia has won the last several newbie games. I looked into the 3 on the first page of mafia to look at the basics on opening strategy. Two of the games had a no lynch night 1. I would suggest we lynch, since clearly a no lynch doesn’t work out well... Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games. Finally, I read that even mislynching a townie can be beneficial. It shows who started the accusation, who jumped on the bandwagon and when, who changed their votes and when and why, etc. This reenforces my idea of a lynch on day1. I will probably post again, at work if possible, after reading the few posts and looking into the previous newbie game openings some more. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
It took like 2 minutes to read the 8 posts so far  I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is. I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people: 1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy You all have posts, but not enough substance! ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote! | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
sc2system Croatia Ninja4ever. Frace Froggynoddy UK I've included Countries since I see they are all euro, but 8 hours still ought to be enough. Ultimatum stands! | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline? not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later! You're Euro.. what time is it there? | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 06:54 Gossemerr wrote: How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list? Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy. I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+ The scores are as follows: sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1 And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina) So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever Revised list: 1. Sc2system 2. Ninja 3. Rise of Fenix 4. Froggy | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. Could you mind explaining why you would want to do this? votes and when someone votes can be very informative. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 07:33 michaelthe wrote: Could you mind explaining why you would want to do this? votes and when someone votes can be very informative. ebwop: derp. Would you mind... Could you... either of those, but not both. Sorry for my bad englirsh, American, but public schools.... Still though, Mind explaining what advantage you see in waiting until the last minute to place your vote? | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 07:39 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Trust me, my vote would be at you, but I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt. There is no unlynch in this game right? All lynch votes are final. You can ##unvote, as seen here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=317174¤tpage=2#22 | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote: My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry. However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis. As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont. I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours: On Fenix: The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines: On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum. On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. . Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same. The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things. The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays... On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, . This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town. On Froggy You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!: On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong. Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating: On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people. 1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia. 2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip. On March 24 2012 01:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though. 3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen! This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind! ##Vote: Artanis[Xp] | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 05:10 Seviro wrote: Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho. Don't confuse a big tell with a big mistake. The mistake itself could have be fixed with 1 word: Potential or Possible Townie or change townie to person. The tell is big, the mistake was 1 word. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
That said, the deadline is approaching and a lot of people seem intent on Fenix or Sc2system: On March 24 2012 05:30 Gossemerr wrote: @ Everyone. I have to leave in 30 minutes and then I will be gone for the day. So is it going to be sc2system or Fenix? Sc2System was lurking hard for the first 24 hours. Then he came out with a bandwagon vote for fenix. He changed it today: On March 24 2012 05:58 sc2system wrote: I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it. ##Vote: No Lynch It's pretty clear to me that Fenix isn't doing a great job, as someone pointed out, he promised to play better tomorrow, despite several hours still available today. That's pure silliness. But it's moreso silliness to accept that defense... Within TWO MINUTES of sc2systems vote, seviro pointed out virtu hasn't been posting in 22 hours. Serviro voted for vitru, and ONE MINUTE LATER, we get this: On March 24 2012 06:03 sc2system wrote: ok if you say so: ##Vote: Virtu but if he posts a good post that is helpfull I will unvote him. "If you say so"? Really? If I were mafia, I'd stick this guy in my pocket and tell him who to lynch tomorrow... Fenix has been playing poorly. But he made repeated mistakes on things like the rules and terms. This seems typical of a noob. Sc2system has lurked hard, then jumped on bandwagons, then changed bandwagons, accepted terrible defenses, all in the course of a few minutes. Much worse imo. All of that said, I still am leaving my vote on Artanis. I think the slip was a Freudian slip. This slip is considered to be the biggest mistake in Mafia, I don't think we should ignore it, and I don't think we should accept the defense that was offered. On March 24 2012 05:24 Mementoss wrote: @Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy. If you think its a slip, vote for him! | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 06:49 Mementoss wrote: I dont think Artanis is the right vote for today. Its not much to go off of, and Day 1 lynch is usually better to go for a safe bet. I think Sc2system is a safe bet, all he does is hop in out of nowhere and bandwagon. At this rate we are heading for a no-lynch town. We really need to just come together and agree on someone. On March 24 2012 06:51 Mementoss wrote: We know who should be around now basing on recent posts/ said they were going to post: Nova, Mementoss, Virtu is supposed to be posting, michael, sc2system(maybe) I somehow misread the voting rule as whoever has the most votes at the end of the day gets lynched, I don't know how I read that since the zbot states everytime you need 7... I will indeed be around until the deadline (or just before, I think its a bit past my bedtime). I will change my vote to sc2system if no one else goes for Artanis. I will vote for Fenix near deadline if necessary, but I have already stated my lynch candidate preference order. Day 1 Lynch is better than no lynch, get voting! | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
There seems to be several people who think that sc2system is the better lynch, but are voting Fenix to make us reach the 7-person majority. I have stated that I will be up at, or just before, the deadline and will change if needed. If you can do the same, and you think sc2system is a better lynch, vote for him. We very clearly are going to lynch one of these two. ##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##vote: sc2system | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 20 2012 23:22 GMarshal wrote: Voting rules: 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: GMarshal. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted.] Votes are counted by bot, so be exact with formatting. Double hash, bolded, and a : @All If you are concerned about changing off Fenix, I'd suggest you simply change now and if you go to bed, change it back. Although, if you most count, I think we are at 3. We would need 1 more assuming Fenix's gets counted. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 08:41 Rise Of Fenix wrote: ## unlynch michaelthe ##lynch sc2system. I think sc2system was a better lynch, but fenix can't even post in the proper format 10minutes after we tell him what it is. I'm thinking just stick with Fenix and call it a night. I will still be up, but I think we are done for day 1. ##Unvote: sc2system ##Vote: Rise of Fenix | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 23:11 virtu wrote: I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today. It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him. This doesn't make it a bad lynch, because it provides information. We need to go back and look at who voted for who and when. This will be useful, but only mildly, since his play was so bad that there was massive consensus. The other points of analysis for day 2 will analyzing the activities of night 1, and of course, searching for scum slips. On March 24 2012 21:26 froggynoddy wrote: Just read the write up in full. I think DoYouHas is trying to tell us something... I normally don't read all of the flavor text, because it is designed to be just that, flavor. But I did read it carefully this time, since the town is losing all the newbie games, it is within the realm of possibility that some hint was given. But after a careful read, I don't see anything. | ||
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michaelthe
United States359 Posts
This is going to be long post, we actually have a good bit to go over! Night 1 Results: I was initially surprised to see a vig shot on a townie, but it quickly became apparent that this was a great call by Artanis. I would have been going at his throat today due to his slip. Artanis basically proved it was a typo, as he claimed. Artanis is now pretty confirmed town. He also picked his target well. Sc2 was at best an anti-town townie. Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look. I came today and read and took notes the last 3 pages or so. While reading Night1, I noticed that Goss was the only one to suggest before AND after that sc2 vig hit wasn't good. This was in my notes, but I actually didnt too think much of it until Artanis posted something. Artanis posted a list of 3 ppl. I am going to attack the other two on that list. I know this looks scummy (zomg, Im on a list of 3, look at them 2, not me!), but I think people will see me being reasonable rather than overly-defense on the attack on Seviro/Goss. I already posted that these two aroused my suspicion. My reasons above and below should be clear. Defense from Artanis Artanis makes two points: 1) I defended Fenix as probable town: There were two clear options: He was terrible town, or he was terrible scum. What made me think he was just terrible town is because he was confused on multiple issues regarding the rules and terms in Mafia. He wasn't playing scummy, he was playing confused. I made the case that sc2 was a better lynch, but it was clear we had two useless players, either of them wasn't bad. I think most people weren't surprised when Fenix flipped town, but everyone was fine with that. 2) You call it a change in play style when I went from analytical to jumping on you hard for your slip. I much prefer an analytical style- rather, thats how I think. I would suggest jumping on you was objective. Everything I know and have read about mafia points out that your slip was the largest scum slip in the book. I could imagine mafia vets coming and analyzing the game and saying “WTF, NO ONE CAUGHT ARTANIS' SLIP?!?!” You yourself admitted it was a giant slip. Jumping on it was objectively a good thing. If you want more, let me know. On Seviro: (This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap: On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate. He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill. Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move! FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix... After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis. Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix. After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE! On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote: This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play. He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here. His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD: On March 26 2012 01:47 Seviro wrote: I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same. Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours. He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried. On Gossemerr: What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea. On March 25 2012 12:07 Gossemerr wrote: Wow... fail vig shot.. I was too damn late. Now I slightly suspicious of Mem and Virtu. Entirely WIFOM, but makes me wonder. On March 25 2012 11:56 Gossemerr wrote: Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute. First, here is why its a good vig shot: 1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have. 2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity! Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!? I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot. Conclusion I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green. Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself. ##Vote: Seviro | ||
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