EPT/in
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VIII
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
/in | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
- no policy lynching lurkers, but if we can not find a better target, a lurker lynch is acceptable. however, as long as the first 24 hours have not passed, i will not accuse anyone of lurking - posting from a mobile sucks. - TerraNova is really eager to FoS | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
I read through all the filters, and besides FirmTofu the following people are rather suspicious to me: - Eleanthas (Only posted a one liner) - koritora (not posting anything of value) - sbrubbles (only two posts in rapid succession where he basically calls out lurkers and fluff, only to disappear again). IMO, if there is a DT out there, these four would be possible check targets. What do you guys think about it? Also, if none of them adds anyhting significant in the next 6 hours, my vote will go to one of these four. Soft deadline 8 hours before is ok with me. Also, as a heads up, I generally won't be around on deadline, as it is at 3 am in my timezone. By final vote will normally be casted around 5 to 3 hours before deadline. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On March 12 2012 19:56 koritora wrote: Well to answer your first question, the one liner is not exactly foretelling as to whether or not Eleanthas is part of the mafia or not. However, it is suspicious that he hasn't posted anything since--means to try to draw suspicion away or something. I agree. Lynching lurkers only makes sense when they are still participating in the game (means voting every day). Else their lurking is probably related to real life issues and don't say anything about their alignement, so it's probably better to just get them modkilled/replaced. On March 12 2012 19:56 koritora wrote: In reference to Cosine, well it's hard to read what his motives are. His words are a little contradictory in my opinion. He was all for lynching without a cause since no lynch would be bad, then a few posts later he says that people misunderstood. I disagree. I read it that he does want to lynch on day 1, but does not want to lynch a lurker on day 1. I understand his position, as I had a similar one last game. So he does want to lynch every day, and is not contradicting himself IMO. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
Also, a small correction: The vote deadline is at 4 am in my Timezone, so I will normally cast my final vote 6 to 4 hours before the deadline. I might not be online before the 8 hour soft deadline, so I vote now. I will be online again before the real deadline, so I will have time to adjust should something substantial happen. FirmTofu is my choice because I feel that he tried to establish activity with 2 fast posts and then disappeared. The posts don't have any real content, the first one is just fluff and the second one is an invalid list. ##Vote FirmTofu | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
4.) Seviro 5.) FirmTofu 6.) InfernOokami7 7.) koritora 10.) cosine So it is hard to tell if scum just missed the chance to defend him or if he is indeed town. I would also like that you all consider the possibility that real life caught up with FirmTofu and he won't be voting, meaning he will be replaced. In that case i would not want to lynch him. However, as I wrote earlier, I won't be around lynchtime (in fact, I'll go offline in about 20 minutes), so I wont have a chance to react accordingly. For now, my vote stays on him. And in case that a colon is indeed needed in the vote: ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: On March 13 2012 01:57 Eleanthas wrote: Ok. Sorry for not responding. Saw discussion towards me at school with my phone, but really hard to write anything with it so decided to wait untill I come home. Anyway have been busy atm. Will change now.1 So what Can i say about first post. It was really just a post to tell people I'm alive. In some forums, you get replaced if you don't speak on first half of day, so I guess I followed that rule there. Had really nothing to say. Just plain stupid first post from me.2 About Nova_Terra: He seems eager to accuse anybody scum if given even a small chance. I guess he is trying to presure players to talk to get discussion going on. Doesn't seem too scummy for me, but have to keep eye on him.3 So what I think about InfernOokami7: beside that post he has 4 post saying pretty much same. I guess he is trying to lurk by stating same thing in many posts. Would like to hear about him.4 And lastly about FirmTofu: Like many others pointed out FirmTofu posted 2 fast posts. Seems kinda suspicous to me. Telling to pick one of the lurkers and listing them and then vanishing. If we don't hear about him, my vote is gonna go for him.5 ##Vote FirmTofu 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: On March 12 2012 02:33 Mementoss wrote: I agree with this post, it seems NovaTerra is eager to FoS despite how early in the game it was, which seems a little suspicious. But, it is most likely just a pressure play, to get the discussion rolling, and people talking. Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
- Eleanthas - koritora - cosine What does everyone else think? | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On March 14 2012 03:03 Eleanthas wrote: Is it wrong that you agree with people? I really think that there was nothing new anybody could have risen up. Besides. It was pretty much case of ''If you don't speak, we lynch you.'', so decided to post my view of the game that point (wich agreed with many people), than being lynched for saying nothing. It is not wrong to agree with people. It is, however, suspicious if you only agree with people and never bring up anything substantial by yourself. On March 14 2012 03:05 Eleanthas wrote: EBWOP I don't really like putting list of guys who should be checked and tell DT to check one of them. If mafia has framer, it makes it too easy to make someone appear as mafia. Good point. However, the DT is up to check whoever he wants. The list I made is here to give the DT options in case he feels unsure, and to spark discussion. And we really need discussion, because this game is pretty dead, and that makes it easy for the mafia. But how about you tell us what you think of Koritora and Cosine? | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. However, I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
- InfernOokami7 - cosine - koritora | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On March 14 2012 14:13 Seviro wrote: GG sbrubbles, be sure that we'll avenge your death. At first I was like why kill him, he was not really active, did not really help the town the first day and I didn't see him being a threat for anyone. Now after looking at his filter, his death give me some pointers. As I said before, this is WIFOM. We really should not be basing any cases on such speculation. However, there are still some good points following. On March 14 2012 14:13 Seviro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 17:09 Nova_Terra wrote: I just want to point out like posts like this are scummy. Not making any “accusations” or anything. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. As you can see, these are all things that one may notice when reading a guide as to how scum should play. Why would Scrubbles throw the blame on him when he was not even targetted at all. I mean it's not like Scrubbles was our main target and he wanted to put the spot on another one whereas it is exactly waht Nova_Terra is doing by turning his post against him. He is dodging the fact that Scrubbles want more explanation about his early FOS by implying that there is nothing more to add and that Scrubbles is just wanting to bring up old discussion whereas it was legitimate of him to want some more since he was not convince of his innocence yet. See point 2, that is exactly what Nova do. What he did before on Eleanthas. Also, that was not what Scrubbles was doing he just happen to have come online after the veil of suspicion was lifted on Nova and he just wanted some clarification. So well at this point pretty self-explanatory. These are some good finds, specially points 2 to 4. They may come from just being very eager to participate, but it is something to keep in mind. On March 14 2012 14:13 Seviro wrote: in his post Phagga write a global analysis of everyone that vote for the lynch without touching to those who didn't. If I'm correct, that was quite a nice play from Nova. It is something I considered when writing my post, which is why I kept Nova_Tera and sbrubbles in the back of my head. But as sbrubbles move showed, it is not necessarly a scum move to do. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote: Also I noticed something else that was a bit weird. Maybe just a coincidence. The connection between Phagga and Nova_Terra 1. Only 2 people to have suspicion on Sbrubbles. Phagga and Nova_Terra. I've already shown Nova's so here is Phaggas post. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 18:33 phagga wrote: Where is FirmTofu? He posted a lurker list 5 hours into the game (which is VERY early for a lurkerlist) and has not posted since then. If we would hold him up to his own standard, he is lurking very hard. You can see his filter here I read through all the filters, and besides FirmTofu the following people are rather suspicious to me: - Eleanthas (Only posted a one liner) - koritora (not posting anything of value) - sbrubbles (only two posts in rapid succession where he basically calls out lurkers and fluff, only to disappear again). IMO, if there is a DT out there, these four would be possible check targets. What do you guys think about it? Also, if none of them adds anyhting significant in the next 6 hours, my vote will go to one of these four. Soft deadline 8 hours before is ok with me. Also, as a heads up, I generally won't be around on deadline, as it is at 3 am in my timezone. By final vote will normally be casted around 5 to 3 hours before deadline. --> Also maybe trying to push a waste of DT check onto Sbrubbles? 2. Another agreeance on the DT check, again maybe trying to lure out a Blue or waste a check? + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. 1.) Making DT check lists is a way to get town more active. It is even mentioned in BloodyC0bblers Post "TL Town Breakdown / Analysis". + Show Spoiler + Towns lately talk too many generalities, and not enough specifics. People will open day 1 with discussion of how their blues could or could not perform that game. While this isn’t a bad place to start, as specifics are never mentioned it lets the mafia easily blend in. Every player roughly knows what the players should be doing with x blue role. However, if you instead bring in specifics: Detective checklists Medic lists Make watch lists of players These sort of topics put names down. As soon as a name hits a list discussion should ultimately start on “why is x there, why isn’t y?” “If I’m on a detective check list or watch list does that mean I’m suspected of being red?” etc… It means people have to get personally involved and risk giving up their alignment. Does someone soft defend or hard defend someone being put on a watch list or the like is something to watch for. The more discussion you can generate via lists like this the more likely reds will slip up. If everyone but player x is talking about these topics, player x could be a) red b) inactive. Either or he’s not helping and voila day 1 lynch. This is exactly the reason why I made these lists: To give people something to discuss. This game is a ghost town, we are currently 6 people participating, while 3 people have not posted at all in the last 36 hours and another one is dodging us with defense and counter questions. We need more activity. That is the main reason why I made these lists. 2.) I am not fishing for blue roles or make them waste their checks. As I stated earlier, the blues are up to do whatever they want to. I also never asked any blue to share their findings, or breadcrumb anything into the thread. On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote: 3. First to defend Nova_Terra + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote: Seviro, while I like your analysis on a first glance, I would like to note that you start your case with some heavy WIFOM. We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. However, I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time. --> Doesn't really go into the case, just dis regards it because it has some WIFOM1. When really, there was a lot of WIFOM but there were some other good points too, that he didn't post his opinion on. Adds some fluff about trying to guess what the mafia is up to is useless. Well usually finding what the mafia are up to leads to them, and it all starts making sense. Or you find a mafia, then you find what they were up to and make a connection that way. 2So yes eventually mafia motives are relevant. Are you serious? I get the feeling you did this on purpose. 1 I wrote in this very post you are quoting that: - "while I like your analysis on a first glance[...]" - "I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time." How you can interprete this as "disregarding the post" is beyond me. 2 Finding a mafia may lead to the rest of mafia, agreed. But finding out why the mafia did a specific night kill is a waste of time. There are so many ways for mafia to make us believe one thing while they do something completely other that it is not worth speculating about why they killed a specific player or left another one alive. Also, clever mafia can mess with our heads by killing a townie that was tunneling another townie, giving town the impression that the tunneled townie was actually scum. This leads directly to a mislynch. So, no, speculating about the motives of night kills leads to WIFOM and mislynches. Avoid it. On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote: 4. Leaves Nova_terra out of his analysis because of the vote switch. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas Even though the vote switch does not prove innocence or town so this seems a bit odd. Unless it was pre-planned. FirmTofu already had the majority, so Nova_Terra could switch. Phagga could then post an analysis post, to look town, while leaving out any analysis of his scum buddy Nova_Terra, without looking suspicious because of the vote switch. Again, the reason why I chose the ones that voted on FirmTofu is because it is almost guaranteed that there was some scum in there. So it is interesting to look at these specific player and how they acted so far, what their reasons for lynching FirmTofu were and how they generally behaved. As I wrote in another post this does not make any non-voter of FirmTofu AutoTown, but it means that I concentrate on one specific group of players for a moment and look at their behaviour. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
Looking through the filters of all of them, I find InfernOokami7 the most unhelpful. Also, he should have actually been in my list of people who voted for FirmTofu, but I missed that he just misformatted his vote. His filter is so empty of content that his bandwagoning makes him quite suspicious. I will therefore put my vote on him for the time being. ##Vote: InfernOokami7 I hope others will follow with voting for their suspects, so we might be able to come to an agreement on who to lynch soon. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On March 15 2012 08:27 Gossemerr wrote: Considering this is a newbie game, wouldn't mafia likely to be outspoken and "contributing"? With something to prove? "Hey don't suspect me im contributing" type of deal. I find it hard to believe that a scum would just not post for this long now - certainly with all this pressure; and especially when there are three of them, and are most likely (don't see how they wouldn't be) communicating with each other by some other means to coordinate. 1.) In almost every mafia game I have read so far there were scum who were lurking. In my last game (Newbie IV), there were 4 scum, 2 of them were lurking almost all game, 1 vs the end. 2.) I agree that there are also active scum. I have my suspects, I read through the filters. However, I am not too sure about my reads yet, and I don't want to mislynch an active townie. Also, I don't want the lurkers to get away with their behaviour, because they won't change anything if we let them get away with it. Lynching a lurker gives us time to flesh out our cases, removes a player with anti-town behaviour and keeps as many active townies in the game as possible. We will be able to analyze vote patterns and justficiations. As a side effect, one of the other lurkers might get more active. 3.) Don't forget that the lurkers, should the fail to vote, will not be modkilled, but replaced, as it states in the Rules: Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until Night 3. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list, assuming one is available, if no-one is available to replace, they will just be modkilled. We have three people on the replacement list. Now consider that all 3 lurkers get replaced, we mislynch an active townie and another one gets shot at night by scum. We will be 5 townies to 3 mafia on D3 with 3 new people on which we have zero information. This is not a situation I want to be in. There are two ways to avoid that situation: We lynch a confirmed scum (which we do not have and will not have), or we lynch a lurker (which is easy, there are 3 of them right now). 4.) I'm referencing the newbie mini IV again: Would we have started to lynch all the lurkers from D2 to D4, we would have at least lynched one scum, perhaps even two. We did not, instead lynched active townies and mafia won the game. 5.) Finally, I'm gonna make one more list (Don't you love them?): Active Players (6): - Gossemerr - Mementoss - Nova_Terra - Seviro - Janaan - phagga Somehow active but barely contributing (1): - Eleanthas lurking like there is no tomorrow (3): - cosine - koritora - InfernOokami7 If all mafia is in the active players group, this town is as good as dead already. I doubt anyone is going to trust Eleanthas or any of the lurkers or their replacements for now, so if all 3 scum are in the active group, they can easily direct any discussion to their liking on N2/D3. So I will assume that there are about 4 to 5 townies in this group, which leaves some scum in either Eleanthas or the lurker group. Also, this ties back to point two, mislynching an active townie will hurt us much more than any lurker mislynch. tldr; lynch lurker, better for town, less risk. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On March 15 2012 08:27 Gossemerr wrote: Moving on, there is a fishy link between Janaan, Phagga, and Nova_Terra. Nova's behavior has already been discussed so not going to bring that up here, but Phagga has not really has yet to been focused. He /she has yet to really offer any analysis except one post a few hours after the day 2 post, in which he / she focuses only on the people who voted for FirmTofu1, and doing so dismisses Janaan rather easily as town.2 While on the issue of voting, he constantly wants to talk about the people who are lurking, but there is realy nothing to talk about considering that they are lurking..3 Seems scummy to me to keep the town going in circles and wasting hours of actual analysis. Of course the lurkers could be mafia, but really nothing new here. Janaan also wants to lynch the lurkers, and easily agrees with Phagga. My money is on Janaan right now unless something else comes up. He is saying just enough to get by, without saying anything really at all.4 ##Vote: Janaan I'm a "he", just for the record. 1 Right, and you analyzed everyone in the game. Oh wait, you did not, the above paragraph is the only analysis you have done so far. So, what exactly is wrong with me analyzing "only" 6 of 10 people? 2 I never said he was town. I stated that there is 1-2 scum in the group of FirmTofu voters, which means there is also 1-2 scum in the group of non-FirmTofu voters. And I can't believe you bring this up again after Nova_Terra and I both explained this very point to Mementoss. 3 If noone is talking about the lurkers, they will be forgotten and get by with it. It has happened in other games, it can happen here. 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument - have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason) - in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing" - try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. You are desperately looking for arguments to connect the three of us when there is nothing to connect the three of us. I could, with the very arguments you used, claim that you and Eleanthas have a secret connection. Actually, that would even make sense, because you are both halflurking and barely contributing. What do you say about that? | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
Also, what is blubbdavid doing in this thread? | ||
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