There are likely 5-6 blues in this setup and if the confirmed townie is any good it's quite easy for him to look at the claimed blues and deduce which claims are unlikely due to balance concerns. I would expect at most one to fake claim. There is no way there's more than one day vig, and unless we find a a compelling target today I don't think it's worthwhile to "waste" the shot today just to mass claim today rather than, say, tomorrow when there's more information and likely time if we proceed immediately. We can just go ahead with the mass claim plan once we get a confirmed townie and personally I think that's ideally tomorrow.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 02 2011 12:04 GMT

#222

On August 02 2011 09:20 chaos13 wrote:
DrH has the right idea here. Yes, confirmed townies are excellent. However, mafia can easily fake claim a role like medic or vig, and then we would need to waste our DT checks in order to confirm those claims. Not only that, but we have no idea who the day vig actually is. If it's in the hands of a weaker player, that could lead to complete and utter disaster. Having one player coordinate all the actions of the blues is never a good thing. There is far too much room for error in such a situation, especially since mafia are able to PM and influence the game as well. Ultimately, however, it is up to the individuals with the roles to decide what to do. Discussion about this is very good, but I would rather not waste all day with it. Just something to keep in mind if we're still arguing about it in 24 hours.

Vigis, because there are probably a lot of you in here: Do not shoot unless it is at confirmed scum. If you feel you must shoot anyway, take out lurkers and liars. This sort of common sense is all too often ignored, and results in dead town. Even take DT claims with a grain of salt. If analysis points to a player being town when a claimed check has shown red, proceed with caution. It could be a miller or a scum's fake claim in order to waste a vig shot, especially if the claimed DT player has been under suspicion.

No one is confirmed scum until they flip. You even go on to say red checks can be millers or the DT fake claiming; vigs should be shooting at people they believe are likely scum. Overall I'm not a huge fan of this post as you joined the anti-sandroba plan wagon quite late, you cover all the angles without really taking a strong position and the part about DTs fake claiming feels a bit forced.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 02 2011 13:10 GMT

#225

Why not? There are frequently 7-8 blues with only 6 scum and for instance hatters are worse than in a standard setup. 6 is probably too high though

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 02 2011 13:19 GMT

#227

The reasons aren't very convincing, but yes it's a pointless discussion

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 02 2011 19:54 GMT

#262

On August 03 2011 04:49 Lucidity wrote:

Show nested quote +

Lol dude wtf? I'm struggling to find any non-scum motive for wanting such a claim. Could you provide me with one?

And you're focused on maintaining your appearance as an active townie instead of hunting scum? Good stuff.

Mig's going crazy at people for not providing great posts on IRC, yet he's not doing what he's hounding others to do? Scum often employ such strategies. What's the dealio, yo?

Yes, the famous scum strategy of trying to get people to be active when the thread is basically dead. He has been quite active in both PMs and in thread, comparatively.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 02 2011 19:58 GMT

#269

On August 03 2011 04:57 youngminii wrote:
syllogism you have been nonstop defending Mig in IRC and evidently this thread too. You've been doing it the entire time I was arguing with Mig. The ENTIRE time. Mig pays you no attention but you keep backing him up on literally everything.

Why?

Haha non-stop defending? The only thing I've defended him against is your awful logic

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 02 2011 20:30 GMT

#294

Now you are just being intentionally obnoxious. Look at the time stamp of the first PM; it was sent after you ragequit and before you "called me out"

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 03 2011 09:20 GMT

#357

Has anyone been in contact with Varpulis? What he said before the game suggested he would be very active but his activity seems to have diminished since the wagon formed

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 03 2011 09:42 GMT

#358

Similarly, Drazerk has previously been on irc all the time as a townie and not as scum, and the latter seems to be the case in this game from what I've seen.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 03 2011 10:08 GMT

#362

Actually the drazerk scum game I was thinking about wasn't a PM game, so that bit of meta is inaccurate. Curu is in a PM/skype circle with me and a few others and we noted his lack of aggression and he claimed he didn't want to 'tunnel' in this game because he has often been so wrong. It's a pretty poor reason, as tunnelling can still lead to useful discussion and scum slips (see redff in AA). He went on to say that he knows his meta and would tunnel as scum, indeed he sort of did in WaW2, so for now I don't think I'm quite yet willing to lynch him based on that bit of meta.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 03 2011 13:47 GMT

#378

I'm liking at least one out of jeejee/BC being red, especially jeejee, but not really have anything convincing to offer right now and lynching BC today would be pretty dumb anyway. Jeejee hasn't commented on much in and apparently out of thread, just soft defending varpulis today, and has been quite bland so far. Seems a bit too bold for day 1 scum play if varpulis flips red though. Speaking of Varpulis, out of the realistic lynch candidates today, he is my choice. Once the wagon started forming he seems to have gone relatively inactive, despite indicating before the game and even during it that he would be active, which seems typical advice given from scum teams in situations like this. Besides that, for reasons have been reiterated above

##vote Varpulis

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 04 2011 22:07 GMT

#556

Mass claim to mig

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 04 2011 22:11 GMT

#559

On August 05 2011 07:07 redFF wrote:

Show nested quote +

erm no

Err yes, unless you think his plan was to bus his teammate 1, shoot a random and not use the other shot just so he could get town cred. It's a completely ridiculous scenario

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 04 2011 22:17 GMT

#562

On August 05 2011 07:13 redFF wrote:

Show nested quote +

wtf is it with new players and mass claiming lol. He isn't confirmed town so we will not be mass claiming to him.

It's a game of probabilities and this is a semi-closed setup. If we put the likelihood of mig being town at, say, 90+%, mass claiming could be worthwhile. He doesn't have to be 100% confirmed.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 05 2011 11:02 GMT

#614

It looked like there was relatively little effort put into saving varpulis; varpulis himself appeared to give up quite early, which was really the most damning aspect of his play yesterday. This might imply that the other realistic wagon, lucidity, is scum as well. His play so far doesn't quite match his AA scum play, though his attempts at casting doubt on mig does mirror his similar attempts on Palmar in AA.

Still, Jeejee looks like the better lynch right now. Initially I thought that his drazerk wagon attempt begun too late for it to be a scum attempting to save his team mate (varpulis already had 8 votes and the other alternative only 2), but he actually defended him quite early. Ace is obviously correct in that defending someone isn't a scum tell, but in this context I still consider it something a scum is more likely to do. Jeejee posted his defense soon after Varpulis posted his own and ignored it, despite the defense itself looking quite bad ("I'm fairly sure that i'm not scum, unless I have a serious problem with reading pms".

##vote Jeejee

If there are still blues yet to roleclaim to mig, you should do it now.

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