EPT![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/SilverskY/KoreanAirOSLS2.jpg)
Many thanks to flamewheel, our resident e e cummings, for the format. Thanks to
![[image loading]](http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/1525/jdvsflash.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/6662/osld.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/5242/bannerfu.png)
The OSL Finals. The place where hopes are raised and then just as brutally crushed. A stage for royalty or redemption, for matches that define an era.
This OSL Finals has all those hallmarks. The two participants, Lee Young Ho and Lee Jae Dong, embody their respective races as much as Lim Yo Hwan and Hong Jin Ho once did. Their combined domination is the overriding theme of an era, an era in which no matter how well-prepared the
opponent or imbalanced the maps, they can overcome all and meet each other, on this grandest of scenes, again, again, and again.![[image loading]](http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/5161/hypel.png)
Many thanks to Nukethestars for the above video.
Proof
Flash is Wilhelmine Germany, who, in spite of his strength and obvious military superiority, is still considered a limited, continental power next to the older hegemon. Lee Young Ho seeks his place in the sun. Lee Young Ho wants to be The Last Bonjwa. He says so himself:
![[image loading]](http://a.imageshack.us/img245/9449/lastemperor.png)
This is Flash's CyWorld Banner.
For a Flash fan like me, the past year has been reminiscent of post-unification Germany. Not the unification in 1989, but the unification in 1871, the creation of Kleindeutschland. Finally. Finally we Flash fans can raise our heads high, hold our champion equal to the other champions of ages past like Oov, Boxer, Nada, July, Voldemort. First, Flash went on a ridiculous tear, going 85% over 80 games in six months from October 2009. He destroyed entire lineups (Samsung, MBC) and reverse all-killed SKT1 (knocking down Fantasy, Bisu, and Best, in that order).
Finally, Flash's natural endowments were beginning to show their mark. He had taken his talented game sense and refined into systems of build orders that entrapped his opponents ten games down the road. His "management style" of TvP created wholly new timing windows where none had thought to exist; his third-denial style of TvZ made Jaedong look helpless.
Yet it has also been frustrating, for time and time again he has been struggling not against hard opposition, but rather doubts, doubts that he is as dominant as Nada or Oov was in their prime. Even though, quantitatively, Flash is more dominant, his story is not as compelling, for there is always someone else nipping at his heels.
For Flash to take this OSL will mean that he finally is undisputed. He will silence all his critics and hold the Golden Mouse. He. Will. Be. Bonjwa.
Anger, Fear, Aggression
Jaedong will not allow it. He has his own honor to protect, but more importantly, Jaedong hates to lose. Jaedong has his pride. He is the dark side of the Force. He plays his hate, he plays with anger. You can see it on his face in matches.
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/CHWuV.jpg)
Jaedong doesn't blink when he is angry. Jaedong has a death stare. When push came to shove and he described his SC philosophy, he did not say that he "likes" to win; he said he hated to lose. Jaedong is a caged animal, whom opponents fear to let loose, yet inadvertantly do when they win their first and only set of a series. Through 2009, Jaedong solidified his trademark LWWW style and struck terror into opponents. Even his greatest defeat, the loss to Fantasy in the Proleague Grand Finals on Medusa, can be said to reflect that terror, as Fantasy opted to proxy a barracks and bunker rush rather than play a standard game against him.
It is safe to say that Jaedong has more sheer on-the-spot skill than anyone else in the game. Where other opponents sniff advantages, Jaedong ends games (Stork anyone?). If he is to win tonight, Jaedong must bring all of that ability and more.
The Sun Also Rises
![[image loading]](http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_01/matadorG_800x614.jpg)
The reason JvF, or FvJ, often feels so frustrating is because the closest analogy would not be a match between men, but rather a bullfight, a duel between man and beast; the bull charging, the matador attempting to outsmart, darting, feinting, waving the red flag. And just as in that dance of death, here, the coup de grace is quick, anticlimactic, almost; what is entertaining is the buildup to the inevitable bloody end.
It is that end, then, that we await this fine September evening. Something worthy for us to remember, and like old gentleman in a sleepy Catalan village, speak of in hushed tones for years to come.
![[image loading]](http://blog.digitalcontentproducer.com/briefingroom/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/history-id.jpg)
Not the end, perhaps not even the beginning of the end. But for certain, the end of the beginning. --Churchill
And yet, more than anything else, it is not about the two players. This might very well be the last OSL in Brood War, the last OSL in the current scene. The tradition that began with Boxer and Yellow now ends with Flash and Jaedong, and what a fitting end it is--from ramen and showmatches to over 150,000 USD in prize money and playing in the Paris of the Orient.
This thing is bigger than Nino Brown. This is big business. This is the American way. --Nino Brown, New Jack City
Anyone who has followed the recent Gretech-KeSPA negotiations can see that Starcraft is a lot bigger than just the Terran, Protoss, and Zerg. The fourth race isn't Xel'Naga, it's money, and money is easily the most imba race of all. And this, last, final, Finals is touched by money--from the first-ever choice of an international venue (visibility); to the transition to Starcraft 2 (monetizing eSports for the game developer).
Aecta est fabula, plaudite. --deathbed lines of Augustus Caesar
Because of money, this OSL Finals has leaped out of the screens of a computer game, and finally become about making history. Making history for e-Sports, for finally turning clicks into cash in a venue outside of Korea.
![[image loading]](http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/1388/predictions.png)
Post your predictions + analysis and I will copy them here!
++SPECIAL: Kwark's Map Analysis++
Additional statistical analysis:
+ Show Spoiler +
I'm really bad at gameplay analysis so I'll just go off of map stats.
Based on the map balance, Flash has a 51.2% chance of winning the Bo5, and Jaedong has a 48.8% chance of winning. Most likely individual outcome is a 3:0 for Flash, with a 20% chance of that occuring. Second most likely individual outcome is a WWLW for Jaedong, with an 8.6% chance of occurance.
Basically, Dreamliner dominates any strategy either player will execute for the Bo5, and Dreamliner singlehandedly balances out TvZ for this series. Flash has two plans he can focus on for the series. He can either try to win in three, or he can cook up a good build for Dreamliner and focus on trying to end it in 4 or take it to 5. Note that if we assume dreamliner is balanced 40:60 (which could be the case if Flash makes a good build for it), Flash's chances of winning the series go up to 57% and JD's drop to 43% and the second most likely outcome turns into a 6.9% chance of a LWWW for Flash. Also, Flash's chances in a full five games higher than Jaedong's, which brings us to JD's side of the table.
JD's best strategy is to end it in 4. It's also the best psychological play as well, as putting Flash in an elimination spot on Dreamliner would put insane amounts of pressure on the Terran's shoulders. To do it, JD has to win the first set, because Grand Line and Polaris are both tilted against Z, and then possibly cheese out a victory on GL or PR.
Of course, these mind games are based purely off of looking at the map stats. I have only minimal gameplay experience so I hope for a veteran TLer to come here and make a much better contribution =D.
Based on the map balance, Flash has a 51.2% chance of winning the Bo5, and Jaedong has a 48.8% chance of winning. Most likely individual outcome is a 3:0 for Flash, with a 20% chance of that occuring. Second most likely individual outcome is a WWLW for Jaedong, with an 8.6% chance of occurance.
Flash …….............…...………..Jaedong.........………
WWW 0.200868721 ………..... WWW 0.069832725
LWWW 0.03991622 ………... LWWW 0.06238159
WLWW 0.030231078 ………... WLWW 0.082366804
WWLW 0.028695532 ………... WWLW 0.086774392
LLWWW 0.013987514 ……… LLWWW 0.04425679
LWWLW 0.071491738 ……… LWWLW 0.008658937
LWLWW 0.011433004 ……… LWLWW 0.054145215
WLLWW 0.01005554 ……… WLLWW 0.06156233
WLWLW 0.054145215 ……… WLWLW 0.011433004
WWLLW 0.051394982 ……… WWLLW 0.012044804
Total Bo5 0.512219545 ……… Total Bo5 0.493456591
(I know the two Bo5 numbers don't add up right, but it's close enough for our purposes)
WWW 0.200868721 ………..... WWW 0.069832725
LWWW 0.03991622 ………... LWWW 0.06238159
WLWW 0.030231078 ………... WLWW 0.082366804
WWLW 0.028695532 ………... WWLW 0.086774392
LLWWW 0.013987514 ……… LLWWW 0.04425679
LWWLW 0.071491738 ……… LWWLW 0.008658937
LWLWW 0.011433004 ……… LWLWW 0.054145215
WLLWW 0.01005554 ……… WLLWW 0.06156233
WLWLW 0.054145215 ……… WLWLW 0.011433004
WWLLW 0.051394982 ……… WWLLW 0.012044804
Total Bo5 0.512219545 ……… Total Bo5 0.493456591
(I know the two Bo5 numbers don't add up right, but it's close enough for our purposes)
Basically, Dreamliner dominates any strategy either player will execute for the Bo5, and Dreamliner singlehandedly balances out TvZ for this series. Flash has two plans he can focus on for the series. He can either try to win in three, or he can cook up a good build for Dreamliner and focus on trying to end it in 4 or take it to 5. Note that if we assume dreamliner is balanced 40:60 (which could be the case if Flash makes a good build for it), Flash's chances of winning the series go up to 57% and JD's drop to 43% and the second most likely outcome turns into a 6.9% chance of a LWWW for Flash. Also, Flash's chances in a full five games higher than Jaedong's, which brings us to JD's side of the table.
JD's best strategy is to end it in 4. It's also the best psychological play as well, as putting Flash in an elimination spot on Dreamliner would put insane amounts of pressure on the Terran's shoulders. To do it, JD has to win the first set, because Grand Line and Polaris are both tilted against Z, and then possibly cheese out a victory on GL or PR.
Of course, these mind games are based purely off of looking at the map stats. I have only minimal gameplay experience so I hope for a veteran TLer to come here and make a much better contribution =D.
From Yxes412:
+ Show Spoiler +
Game 1: Eye of the Storm
Jaedong:
Despite what most Jaedong fans want, I expect Jaedong to open with his normal 12 hatch opening. Why? Jaedong is stubborn. Jaedong wants to do to Flash what sAviOr did to oov. He wants to beat Flash his way. Further, I think Jaedong wants to distinguish himself as the undisputed best Zerg. Well he already is right? Well, EffOrt showed the power of early aggression against the macro beast that is Flash, and I think as stubborn as Jaedong is, he doesn't want to be lugged in with EffOrt. What's more, Jaedong has been honing, and re-honing his raw ZvT mechanics over these last few month's and I think he's confident in a standard game. Finally, this isn't PR, and there isn't a garage full of VODs of his play-style on EotS; so he doesn't need to go some crazy econ build and leave himself open to a perfectly prepared bio/gol timing push.To sum it up, Jaedong played Flash standard on FS, he clawed his way back from the brink through risky play that payed off. Yes, Flash made mistakes, but it was up to Jaedong to exploit them.
Flash:
From Flash, I would be very surprised if he doesn't 14cc. He excels at macro, he's rolled Jaedong with 14ccs and its a build he absolutely loves to use in FvJ. Then, I expect a very well prepared build for this first game. Something Flash whipped up to specifically exploit Jaedong's play. I expect Flash to play similarly to the way he did in game 1 of the MSL. Sure, it was easier to predict how Jaedong would play, sure denying scouting was easier on PR, and this situation seems much harder to predict and prepare for. However, this is Flash. He knows he has seer-like game sense, he knows Jaedong's tendencies, and most of all, Flash knows that he can win the mind games. Flash is extremely smart and he knows it. He's going to have a very precise build planned for this game 1, and I expect a very well prepared timing push from Flash in this game 1.
Who wins:
Game 1 is going to set the pace for this whole series. Flash rarely loses game 1 and I'm sure that game 1 setting is going to be incredibly comfortable for the Terran bonjwa. However, I say Jaedong is much more prepared for any type of funky build, and I say he defends whatever attack Flash has up his sleeve and takes Flash into unfamiliar territory and pulls off the win. Jaedong 1-0.
Game 2: Polaris Rhapsody
Jaedong:
This is the map Jaedong is going to be aggressive on. I expect a 9 pool, or some sort of muta all-in. Why? Because Jaedong saw how going greedy blew up in his face in game 1 of the MSL, and how had he 9 pooled in game 5, he would've won against Flash's blind 14cc. Jaedong's going to want vengence, he's going to want to make a statement, and he's going to want to beat Flash on a map he is very comfortable on. I can only say Jaedong's going to play aggressive and mean.
Flash:
It's difficult for me to predict how Flash will respond after losing game 1. Flash never loses the first game, and he usually uses it as a stepping stone to take control of the series. Since he rarely loses game 1, I don't have much to go on. (Sure he lost to MVP in the Hana Datoo MSL, but the Bo5 was split up, and when they game back Flash did the typical, win the first game played and dominate). If Jaedong takes game 1, I say Flash gets a little rattled, but doesn't change his game plan. I expect a another carefully prepared build from the Oracle. That said, Flash may not be expecting early aggression on PR and that could cause problems, but it's frickin Flash, and the dude always seems to know what's going to happen.
Who wins:
Jaedong's going to be pissed on this map and he's going to come out mean. That said, Flash can see into the future, and I expect him to win pretty handedly. I think the game is close to a toss up because of Jaedong's wrath, but I see Flash winning as expected. Tied 1-1.
Game 3: Grand Line SE
Jaedong:
Well, I would not be surprised to see some kind of hydra bust from Jaedong on this map, but deep down, I expect Jaedong to go some thing like 3 hatch--> Evo --> 4 hatch. I can't really describe why I think Jaedong will go for some strange build, but given the series is 1-1, I think he'll want to mix it up. What's more, Jaedong will probably expect Flash to not want to go into DL with his back against the wall. If Flash goes into DL 1-2, and spawns 6 o' clock, he's going to be very pressured. I think Jaedong is going to try and play with an unorthodox build to mix up a very likely early bio push. I don't think Jaedong will want to play standard on this map, not when his 3rd gas is so hard to secure. Expect something nonstandard but not ultra aggressive either.
Flash:
Flash is going to be a little more comfortable, but not exactly content. He just won on a map he was expected to win on, so it's no time to breathe a sigh of relief. I expect same old 14cc, and a bio --> mech. It's strong, it's standard, and Flash knows it pretty damn well. I'm sure he won't repeat game 3 of the MSL and have perfect Light-style timings. He knows it's strong and he knows it's beaten Jaedong in the past.
Who's wins:
Game 3 is going to be the best game of this series. I think it'll be back and forth. I expect to see drops, tank lines up the ass, lots of swarm, and some damn impressive starcraft. Am I optimistic? Yes. Jaedong takes down Flash in his comfort zone despite the odds, and pulls off a spectacular win. Jaedong 2-1.
Game 4: Flight-Dreamliner
Jaedong:
Jaedong's sitting pretty right now. Going into a Zerg favored map, up 1 game in the series, and he know's Flash will be desperate. He can expect Flash to be rattled, and I expect Jaedong to play a comfortable game. I don't expect aggression from Jaedong in this game, because Flash is the one who has to make something happen now. I think Jaedong is going to sit back and react to Flash's build. Expect a drone to scout, in case of an 8 rax, and expect Jaedong to play very calmly and conservatively.
Flash:
Suddenly the tables have turned on our beloved bonjwa. Like Jaedong had to make something happen before him, suddenly he has to do something special to take this to a fifth set. I think Flash will be rattled at this point. He's definitely going to be out of his comfort zone since he pretty much never finds himself down in a series. He's been tied recently, but not down. What's worse, he's on a map he doesn't like. Flash is either going to go for some sort of cheese (Like the Nate), or try and rely on his previously prepared build. The question will be: Did he expect to be down going into DL when he prepared his build?
Who wins:
I think whatever Flash does, he makes mistakes. It's not easy to play out of your comfort zone, and I think Flash pays for it. Jaedong will be calm, and playing relaxed and reactive will win him this game. Jaedong 3-1.
Jaedong:
Despite what most Jaedong fans want, I expect Jaedong to open with his normal 12 hatch opening. Why? Jaedong is stubborn. Jaedong wants to do to Flash what sAviOr did to oov. He wants to beat Flash his way. Further, I think Jaedong wants to distinguish himself as the undisputed best Zerg. Well he already is right? Well, EffOrt showed the power of early aggression against the macro beast that is Flash, and I think as stubborn as Jaedong is, he doesn't want to be lugged in with EffOrt. What's more, Jaedong has been honing, and re-honing his raw ZvT mechanics over these last few month's and I think he's confident in a standard game. Finally, this isn't PR, and there isn't a garage full of VODs of his play-style on EotS; so he doesn't need to go some crazy econ build and leave himself open to a perfectly prepared bio/gol timing push.To sum it up, Jaedong played Flash standard on FS, he clawed his way back from the brink through risky play that payed off. Yes, Flash made mistakes, but it was up to Jaedong to exploit them.
Flash:
From Flash, I would be very surprised if he doesn't 14cc. He excels at macro, he's rolled Jaedong with 14ccs and its a build he absolutely loves to use in FvJ. Then, I expect a very well prepared build for this first game. Something Flash whipped up to specifically exploit Jaedong's play. I expect Flash to play similarly to the way he did in game 1 of the MSL. Sure, it was easier to predict how Jaedong would play, sure denying scouting was easier on PR, and this situation seems much harder to predict and prepare for. However, this is Flash. He knows he has seer-like game sense, he knows Jaedong's tendencies, and most of all, Flash knows that he can win the mind games. Flash is extremely smart and he knows it. He's going to have a very precise build planned for this game 1, and I expect a very well prepared timing push from Flash in this game 1.
Who wins:
Game 1 is going to set the pace for this whole series. Flash rarely loses game 1 and I'm sure that game 1 setting is going to be incredibly comfortable for the Terran bonjwa. However, I say Jaedong is much more prepared for any type of funky build, and I say he defends whatever attack Flash has up his sleeve and takes Flash into unfamiliar territory and pulls off the win. Jaedong 1-0.
Game 2: Polaris Rhapsody
Jaedong:
This is the map Jaedong is going to be aggressive on. I expect a 9 pool, or some sort of muta all-in. Why? Because Jaedong saw how going greedy blew up in his face in game 1 of the MSL, and how had he 9 pooled in game 5, he would've won against Flash's blind 14cc. Jaedong's going to want vengence, he's going to want to make a statement, and he's going to want to beat Flash on a map he is very comfortable on. I can only say Jaedong's going to play aggressive and mean.
Flash:
It's difficult for me to predict how Flash will respond after losing game 1. Flash never loses the first game, and he usually uses it as a stepping stone to take control of the series. Since he rarely loses game 1, I don't have much to go on. (Sure he lost to MVP in the Hana Datoo MSL, but the Bo5 was split up, and when they game back Flash did the typical, win the first game played and dominate). If Jaedong takes game 1, I say Flash gets a little rattled, but doesn't change his game plan. I expect a another carefully prepared build from the Oracle. That said, Flash may not be expecting early aggression on PR and that could cause problems, but it's frickin Flash, and the dude always seems to know what's going to happen.
Who wins:
Jaedong's going to be pissed on this map and he's going to come out mean. That said, Flash can see into the future, and I expect him to win pretty handedly. I think the game is close to a toss up because of Jaedong's wrath, but I see Flash winning as expected. Tied 1-1.
Game 3: Grand Line SE
Jaedong:
Well, I would not be surprised to see some kind of hydra bust from Jaedong on this map, but deep down, I expect Jaedong to go some thing like 3 hatch--> Evo --> 4 hatch. I can't really describe why I think Jaedong will go for some strange build, but given the series is 1-1, I think he'll want to mix it up. What's more, Jaedong will probably expect Flash to not want to go into DL with his back against the wall. If Flash goes into DL 1-2, and spawns 6 o' clock, he's going to be very pressured. I think Jaedong is going to try and play with an unorthodox build to mix up a very likely early bio push. I don't think Jaedong will want to play standard on this map, not when his 3rd gas is so hard to secure. Expect something nonstandard but not ultra aggressive either.
Flash:
Flash is going to be a little more comfortable, but not exactly content. He just won on a map he was expected to win on, so it's no time to breathe a sigh of relief. I expect same old 14cc, and a bio --> mech. It's strong, it's standard, and Flash knows it pretty damn well. I'm sure he won't repeat game 3 of the MSL and have perfect Light-style timings. He knows it's strong and he knows it's beaten Jaedong in the past.
Who's wins:
Game 3 is going to be the best game of this series. I think it'll be back and forth. I expect to see drops, tank lines up the ass, lots of swarm, and some damn impressive starcraft. Am I optimistic? Yes. Jaedong takes down Flash in his comfort zone despite the odds, and pulls off a spectacular win. Jaedong 2-1.
Game 4: Flight-Dreamliner
Jaedong:
Jaedong's sitting pretty right now. Going into a Zerg favored map, up 1 game in the series, and he know's Flash will be desperate. He can expect Flash to be rattled, and I expect Jaedong to play a comfortable game. I don't expect aggression from Jaedong in this game, because Flash is the one who has to make something happen now. I think Jaedong is going to sit back and react to Flash's build. Expect a drone to scout, in case of an 8 rax, and expect Jaedong to play very calmly and conservatively.
Flash:
Suddenly the tables have turned on our beloved bonjwa. Like Jaedong had to make something happen before him, suddenly he has to do something special to take this to a fifth set. I think Flash will be rattled at this point. He's definitely going to be out of his comfort zone since he pretty much never finds himself down in a series. He's been tied recently, but not down. What's worse, he's on a map he doesn't like. Flash is either going to go for some sort of cheese (Like the Nate), or try and rely on his previously prepared build. The question will be: Did he expect to be down going into DL when he prepared his build?
Who wins:
I think whatever Flash does, he makes mistakes. It's not easy to play out of your comfort zone, and I think Flash pays for it. Jaedong will be calm, and playing relaxed and reactive will win him this game. Jaedong 3-1.
![[image loading]](http://img815.imageshack.us/img815/1637/resultso.png)
+ Show Spoiler +
![[image loading]](http://a.imageshack.us/img194/817/60thelastemperor.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/3555/recommended.png)
+ Show Spoiler +
+ Show Spoiler [Set 1] +
Great game, offbeat techs... and one unit. One unit away man, one unit away.
+ Show Spoiler [Set 2] +
Cheese! Counter-cheese! Counter-counter-cheese!
+ Show Spoiler [Set 3] +
Cheese is great, but only once in a series.
+ Show Spoiler [Set 4] +
HOLY SHIT. Insane game, aggressive opener, relatively unorthodox midgame, great on-the-spot decision-making in response, crazy back and forth.
+ Show Spoiler [Set 5] +
Blink once and you missed it.
![[image loading]](http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/618/howtowatch.png)
http://www.teamliquid.net/video/userstream.php?user=Chaos
http://www.teamliquid.net/video/userstream.php?user=Craton
http://www.teamliquid.net/video/userstream.php?user=Kentor
Post me streams in the thread and I'll list them here!
