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Please see below edit, with only "good" players there.
EDIT #2:
All the players with peak ELO higher than 2250, sorted by distance from ELO peak.
ID Team ELO Peak Gap?
Jaedong OZ 2347 2365 18
Fantasy SKT 2269 2307 38
Sea MBC 2217 2268 51
Flash KT 2387 2443 56
Leta hite 2189 2263 74
EffOrt CJ 2227 2311 84
Kwanro Stars 2164 2251 87
Kal STX 2165 2267 102
BeSt SKT 2180 2283 103
Hwasin (Unknown/Retired) 2152 2271 119
fOrGG KT 2143 2263 120
Midas FOX 2139 2273 134
Stork KHAN 2163 2297 134
Calm STX 2123 2287 164
JangBi KHAN 2140 2305 165
July STX 2096 2284 188
Bisu SKT 2174 2366 192
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If you take a player and assess his fanboys, a lot of times they will express their opinions on the player as if he were at his peak performance, or close to it. Sometimes they'll say their player is in a small slump, that he'll just get out of it. It takes a while before fanboys throw in the towel. Today, I'm going to show you that one such player is never coming back.
Ever.
There's been quite a bit of chatter lately about whether Bisu is making a return to form or whether he's slumping. Indeed, people have even claimed through the 2009-2010 Proleague R5 that Bisu, was, indeed, back. They say that his recent losses are simply a mini-slump, that Bisu, like Citigroup, will, indeed, eventually hit its price target true intrinsic value of 35$/share another OSL/MSL title.
They were wrong. And they are still wrong.
Pop quiz for a second. Which Protoss, right now, would you say is doing "better"--Free or Bisu?
Looking at ELO vs ELO peaks, and then ranking based on the gap, it's apparant that Bisu is going through a lot more than just a bad quarter. Let's just get it out there for now:
Compared to his past performance, Bisu sucks.
First, to assess the validity of the ELO gap ranking method, let's see who it places as the current players who are "hot".
ID Team ELO Peak Gap?
Soulkey Stars 2116 2117 1
Tempest KT 2123 2126 3
free Stars 2227 2238 11
RorO FOX 2188 2199 11
Hydra CJ 2097 2108 11
Stats KT 2168 2181 13
Horang2 hite 2139 2153 14
Light MBC 2230 2245 15
Jaedong OZ 2347 2365 18
While most of them are relatively unknown, it is obvious that each of these players is up and coming. They are young, growing firms players--or they are players that are actually resurgent (like Free), or they are people playing at or near their peak potential (Jaedong, Light).
Who is not on there?
Bisu isn't.
Well, you might ask, where is our dear Ninja Toss. Out of the top 40 players by ELO, just how close is he to his own supposed "potential"?
Let's think about some players you might think are slumping harder than Bisu.
July--our watermelon Zerg hasn't played many televised games lately. July, you will say, he MUST be slumping harder than Bisu. Must be. Gotta be.
Weeell, you could say that the lack of televised games has helped July by keeping him from dinging his own ELO even lower, so let's take an active gamer.
Ahh, ForGG. So far away from his glorious MSL run, he has to be performing further away from his peak potential.
Jangbi?
How about Effort? Effort has to suck, his ZvT sucks so much balls, he just went 2-8.
What about Movie? Movie has fallen so far since being incinerated by the Last Bonjwa Flash.
Nope.
Bisu is worse than all of them when he is measured against his own "peak potential". He is the most underperforming stock of them all.
ID Team ELO Peak Gap?
Kal STX 2165 2267 102
BeSt SKT 2180 2283 103
sKyHigh CJ 2124 2232 108
Hwasin (Unknown/Retired) 2152 2271 119
fOrGG KT 2143 2263 120
BaBy FOX 2110 2232 122
Stork KHAN 2163 2297 134
Midas FOX 2139 2273 134
YellOw[ArnC](Unknown/Retired) 2089 2226 137
Calm STX 2123 2287 164
JangBi KHAN 2140 2305 165
July STX 2096 2284 188
Bisu SKT 2174 2366 192
My friends, Bisu is at the end of the line. Out of the top 40 players by ELO, Bisu is the furthest away from his best.
And yet, and yet---even when he was "back", even when he was in the proleague--that only puts his gap next to where Yarnc's is today.
Bisu is slumping harder than players who were throwing matches.
Bisu. Is. GONE.
EDIT:
How many games would it take for Bisu to get back to his Peak?
Well, he would have to win 20 games STRAIGHT to get back. Good luck on that one fanboys. In the meantime, three hearty cheers for sweet fanboy tears~
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There's other cool things you can do with this analysis.
Such as looking at relative racial dominance now vs before. Will do that when I have time.
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You're jealous because Bisu's into little girls.
+ Show Spoiler +That's about equal to your post in usefulness, I'm feeling a bit cynical today.
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
Yet another reason why Bisu has fallen from his mantle as the King Acorn.
I pointed this out months ago, but no one would believe me. The truth does hurt, doesn't it?
Long gone. Cya Kim Taek Yong.
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By most progamers' standards, Bisu had a productive season. By his own standards, not so good. Saying he's slumping harder than all those other players because he's furthest away from his own peak is dumb though. His peak was way higher than all of those guys.
He has a major advantage going forward. His PvZ is easily, by far, without contest, the best—unfortunately, mostly because everybody else is awful at it because its the toughest matchup in Broodwar.
If he can improve in other matchups (the more forgivable matchups as it happens), he can rebound. I don't like it when there are these sorts of authoritative declarations that he can never be good again. He can easily be good again.
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Well. That wraps that up. Wait...
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I did not know we measured a player's current form by comparing it to his peak. I thought we compared current rating to the current ratings of other players.
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Bisu is the guy that slumps for months/years. You could've easily said his time was over after he lost to Mind, but that just isn't true.
That being said, I can't quite figure out whether Bisu still has his near-bonjwa level of play left in him. What do I see?
+ Show Spoiler +That it's really damn hard to tell whether or not he does.
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There is no indication that Bisu isn't "coming back". Will he reach his peak performance again? probably not. Will he reclaim the spot of #1 toss? likely imo.
+ Show Spoiler [WCG] +Aside from today's games, in which he made some mistakes (as did his opponent), his macro was in no way bad. His decision making on the other hand, was at times, but 1 day's worth of games is too much to condemn a player.
His vT has always had flaws, but he has definitely rebounded (at least partially) from the past year where his record left something to be desired.
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Well I guess Flash isn't hot according to this either. Hmm, what do ya know.
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Bye bye bisu! will miss you but not your fans <3.
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It didnt take statistical analysis to show that Bisu was slumping. He still has flashes of brilliance like defeating Jaedong on judgement day or the proleague playoff dominance against CJ. He showed some of the best play ever and more starleagues than any other protoss, that is why his peak elo is so high.
As a fan, hes broken out of a real bad slump before and I hope he can do the same. I know he is trying really hard and I will continue to root for him.
Yeah, this op was pretty annoying. The statistics and information are nice, but it would be better if you edited out the pointless Bisu bashing .
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I'm sure Bisu will come back just like Savior was gonna come back and destroy everyone, don't worry guys.
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Such little faith. Please re-visit this thread in 3-4 months and take a pic of your face plz. I wanna see your expression when you realize how wrong you were and who exactly you questioned. Bisu is solid, strong, reliable and the highest paid progamer (afaik) today (talk about motivation). This man might loose games every once in a while, no one can win every time. He will revolutionize himself as he has done countless times. Every time I hear about a slump I think, wait 3-4 months. Why? Because not only does the test of time prove someone right or wrong but also the fact that some players styles just don't work well with certain maps and a new map pool could change everything around. And Bisu sure the fuck has style. I am not going fan boy here, I actually never liked Bisu's style to much but he is way too talented and skilled to just drop off the face of the map. Give it time. Bisu will succeed.
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I like how it's all measured against Bisu's peak ELO, which happens to be the second highest ever achieved—including better than Jaedong's ever done.
Oh no, so he's kind of far away from that? He must be really horrible these days, I guess!
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You've just got to have been watching his games to know his comeback is being over-hyped by desperate fanboys. His multitask is nowhere near what it once was and his play often looks sloppy and aimless. His wins are hardly convincing and his losses are hard to watch. He scored that one freak win over JD and a couple of ace matches where the other team was outcoached (Bisu > Roro *golf clap*) but he is just too inconsistent to be considered anything more than a PvZ sniper these days with adequate PvP.
+ Show Spoiler +Today's 2-0 loss to the Gatekeeper aka Kal shows just how far from the S class he has fallen
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Well, if anyone didn't know the results of today's WCG, a glance at the sidebar will enlighten them.
I have to agree in general that Bisu is not as solid as he was. At the same time, when your peak used to be the highest ELO peak of all players in the 2300s, even 2200 (which is incredibly respectable) would be a step down by your comparison - even if it put him comfortably in the top 10 by ELO.
He might not be winning a starleague anytime soon or ever at this rate, but pulling up to consistency is not out of the question at all.
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How many games would it take for Bisu to get back to his Peak?
Well, he would have to win 20 games STRAIGHT to get back. Good luck on that one fanboys. In the meantime, three hearty cheers for sweet fanboy tears~
How did you calculate this? ELO fluctuates according your opponent's ELO. Unless you had a list of his next 20 opponents and knew their ELOs beforehand?
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Bisu :3
Poor guy, he hasn't been himself for a very long while now.
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On August 19 2010 16:06 soudo wrote:Show nested quote +
How many games would it take for Bisu to get back to his Peak?
Well, he would have to win 20 games STRAIGHT to get back. Good luck on that one fanboys. In the meantime, three hearty cheers for sweet fanboy tears~
How did you calculate this? ELO fluctuates according your opponent's ELO. Unless you had a list of his next 20 opponents and knew their ELOs beforehand?
Used the average ELO of all players in the top 40, plugged it into the ELO formula.
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On August 19 2010 16:00 nttea wrote:
Bye bye bisu! will miss you but not your fans <3.
Do you realize how annoying it is to be a protoss fan?
Zerg have had plenty of successful players, including July, Savior(who?) and Jaedong.
Imagine if instead of July, it was Kingdom who was almost good enough to beat oov, and Nal_ra was the bonjwa rather than savior. Then Jaedong managed to dethrone this bonjwa and for once the zerg would have a chance to shine, only to find that their star slumps hard, and Bisu is the consistent one who slumps for like 5 seconds after some BS runs.
So the only good players end up being Yellow(silver) and inconsistent Jaedong, and after 3 years, it looks like no other star has come about, while free/best etc become consistently ownage players for a long period of time. You would think of Jaedong in the same way. Because honestly, toss never had anyone other than Stork the Silver and Bisu the slumper to represent their race as anything other than inferior. Fanboy attitude is perfectly acceptable IMO.
/end rant.
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EPT
