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United States2186 Posts
On February 10 2010 04:14 meeple wrote:
Sweet... lets get this party started...
Just curious as to why we have the 48 hour days? To be honest in that last game we had the activity to do 24 hours days.
It's not just the activity, the town is totally screwed then since they don't have the time to figure out who the mafia is and then convince everyone to change their votes to that person. In your game a small group of people were extremely active but it took time for the rest of the group to weigh in their opinions and votes. 48 hours is often too short to accomplish that purpose but so far it has worked really well as longer the mafia get kinda screwed.
On February 10 2010 05:15 Zato-1 wrote:
A few questions...
1. If a DT successfully ties a clue to a mafia member / RCs a mafia member, will that DT be told what family the mafia member belongs to? If the answer is yes, will millers appear to be from a random mafia family to DTs?
2. As far as I can see, it's a no-brainer for the mafia families (who don't have the mayor/pardoner among their ranks) to substitute their own members for bodyguards. Am I missing something?
3. As soon as one mafia family falls down to 2 or fewer members, they've essentially lost the game- they cannot win, because either they will be wiped out (the other mafia family wins), or they will reduce the other mafia family to 1-2 members in which case the Town wins. What incentive is there for this mafia family to keep playing, considering they cannot win? Will they have some kind of secondary objective, like a consolation prize? e.g. maybe a secondary objective of theirs would be to not be wiped out, in which case once they fall down to 2 members, they have to push for a Town win rather than let the other mafia family win.
4. What happens in the hypothetical case that all 30 Town members are dead, and after they all die, both families are reduced to 1-2 members each? Does the Town still win?
5. Why does the Gambino Family have a much cooler name than the Sumiyoshi Family?
1. Yes, yes.
2. If it's such a 'no-brainer' the town will simply get the mayor to reveal the bgs then kill them. Mafia have to balance this possibility with the strength of infiltrating office.
3. The Mafia family can still kill off the town and then kill the other family.
4. No, and this needs to be amended to the rules if it is not clear. Town cannot win if it's members are all dead. iirc we had a possible clause saying that the town needed to have a certain number of people left relative to the mafia but I'm not quite sure if it was viable.
If anyone has suggestions to make it so that comebacks are more than possible without having to rely too much on outside interference please give them. This game format was really hard to come up with since we had to design it in such a way that mafia can't team up
5. Give a better name then!
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Suggestion for the mafia:
get a forum setup asap at proboards.com (or somewhere else). It helps you so much in organizing everything and keeping everyone on the same page. irc is useful as well for discussing stuff. imo you really need to have both.
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I don't want this game to head in the directions of the two intro games that were previously played so time to lay some ground rules before the momentum is too much:
Overly discussing clues on the first day, generally even the first two days, helps the mafia. Period.
Why is this? Clues are designed so that they become stronger over time. Each mafia member is assigned a profile with various traits, and a few are picked every night. Thus it would be absolutely unfair for clues to be useful early on, because if they only get more useful over time, the mafia are just going to die to clues every day.
Tthe best two clue analyzers here are Camlito and MTF (neither are playing btw). They don't really bother doing much with clues before day 3 and certainly don't find anything conclusive. Day 3 is the day when the profiles start to fit. That's when these two start making big progress and pinning down mafia. And these guys are the very best.
For those not convinced, here are some facts:
There have only been two mafia caught on clues before day 3. Truthbringer in Plexa's game, and DoctorHelvetica in Incognito's last game. That's two out of A LOT of attempts. Of serious clue suspects in all the games, I'd say it's probably 5-10% success rate. Do you seriously want to try to get a mafia on that percentage? Randomly selecting a person is at least twice as likely if not four times than by day 1 clues.
Now why does this help the mafia? First, the odds of success are so low that it diverts the town's efforts into meaningless pursuits. This let's the mafia control the game flow (very important) and restricts the amount of useful information we are able to get. Secondly, it gives the mafia very easy methods for blending in without being forced to give real contributions. By this I don't mean they put in no effort and just throw some slop down; that would be obvious. Mafia members can type serious clue analysis and just not target their family. That would look exactly like a townie because...clues this early are so vague and useless townies are not going to be getting many mafia anyway. Or sheesh, they can frame their own members and it doesn't really matter because they aren't going to convince anyone to kill on that alone.
Since I have a sneaking suspicion most people just glaze over my essays I'm going to try breaking them up into smaller chunks and seeing if that has any improvement.
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Oh L, I didn't get to finish what I was writing, sorry. People should definitely be talking. The thing is day 1 clues literally are useless/vague/incomprehensible. You got Truthbringer killed off of a day 2 clue which is much different (I'm not really opposed to day 2 clue talk, though day 3 is when it really gets useful).
So while people talk, they really don't give much evidence as to their alignment unless they make some glaring error (this does not necessarily hold for later days when clues are more useful). People most definitely need to talk but they need to talk about something useful.
Now what we should be doing on the first day:
1) Plans
2) Information
3) Lynch target
This game is a setup we've only had once before. There's a lot of potential strategies for the town, some leftover relics from the previous game, and possibly some new ones. Unfortunately the best strategy from the previous game, located here, the bodyguard sacrifice to use as a confirmed innocent, we made no longer valid because bgs can be subbed. Therefore we need some new ideas out there of how to proceed as the town.
Mayor candidates must have a plan. This is for two reasons. a) We need something to base the votes off of, and b) we need to hold them accountable. The worst case scenario is an innocent mayor doing something retarded that gets them lynched, since the town has a propensity to lynch it's elected roles when they are innocent. This prospect forces mafia candidates to actually help the town or they won't get elected. And it let's innocent candidates assert their...innocence, if they can come up with some really good ideas.
What you can do:
Post whatever you think on people, plans, etc. Don't hold back. If you are town you have nothing to fear. If you're mafia, well you should already be trembling in your boots.
If you really really want to talk about clues, the most useful thing to do is to create profiles for each assailant. Don't try to fit names to the clues yet, just build the profile so people have something to work with on later days. This actually is a legitimate use of time and will help us later.
Not posting helps the mafia.
Why? The mafia don't want to actually have to spend effort in public. They want to scheme amongst themselves, and they don't want to actually have to offer real advice. An ideal game for the mafia is where all 50 people say nothing and just randomly kill people and the mafia sit back and win. The ideal game for the town is when everyone posts and is contributing ideas, forcing mafia to do so to blend in but they will mess up, and they will get caught if they are forced to post enough.
If you are innocent, do NOT sit back and contribute nothing. Actively post, actively contribute the best you can offer. If you can't offer much, it's okay, just post what you can. As long as you don't antagonize people or spam to cover up very useful information your posting will only help us.
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Time to start things rolling. My primary suspect for the first lynch is Bloodyc0bbler.
Obviously he's only posted twice since the game started, an election post and another useless psot. BC runs for election quite a bit. I've taken the liberty of gathering up his previous election campaigns so you can compare them.
+ Show Spoiler [Chuiu's game 5 as Townie] +On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ok everyone, unlike the flashy gimicks of caller, I offer substance to my platform!.
to start with heres my portfolio.
Name: BloodyC0bbler
Mafia experience: 5(6 if you count callers as two go's), 1 game run, 1 game co hosted
Looking at just the one stat alone, I have the experience to lead this town to victory!
In mafia 2, I was town aligned and we won, mafia 3 we as town dominated the mafia, mafia 4 was ruined by a jerkoff so well, can't really say much there. Tracils game ended early, but my side was winning. Callers first game ended day one with VI win, and his second game I as VI won.
I have a high precident of winning the games on the side im part of, with ability, and luck like that, I would be an obvious goodluck charm for the town.
Now, witha ll the extra things I do on TL (PX, Location thread, etc...) You guys know I spend way to much time here, giving me the most amount of time to really jump ontop of things, I can analyze clues well which is helpful in your sheriff.
That is my background,
As for what I will do for the town to win.
As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction.
As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP.
As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first.
Now for a plan.
We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role).
So heres the plan.
Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town.
When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one.
In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after.
This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly.
+ Show Spoiler [Qatol's game 8 as Traitor] +On May 16 2009 15:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
OK BOYO'S!
Ok guys, this game will be the hardest one potentially we have ever done, as such we need to get the mafia as soon as this game starts. I've shown a record of insane amount of clue analyzing from previous games, as such I believe I would make a good candidate for the town to keep alive. I however, would prefer to be pardoner, this allows me to help prevent potentially townbreaking lynches.
As mayor, I would analyze the clues (as this is my forte) and bring them to your attention and direct votes on the best possible suspects, thus bringing the town some central leadership to avoid chaos.
As pardoner, I would do generally the same idea, however, would use my ability to prevent lynches on cases where it appeared someone with no links was up for no reason.
Vote for order, vote for BloodyC0bbler
+ Show Spoiler [Plexa's game 12, Townie] +On July 03 2009 07:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
OK first off
I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE
I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office.
Weather
I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option.
Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out.
Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow.
This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them.
Leadership
In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order.
Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive.
Double Lynch
I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town.
These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked.
Vote for me
but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG
+ Show Spoiler [This game] +On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As the game as begun, it is time to get it started.
I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor.
I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly.
Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler
Notice the similarities between the two games he was innocent. He comes in with a plan, goes into detail, and gives genuine advice. In his game as a traitor, he offers nothing, says random gibberish, and is basically goofing off. He makes no serious attempt to do anything. Exactly like his campaign post this game.
BC is a vet, and has played more games than almost anyone else (I think only Ace and maybe Caller leads him). He's also hosted a bunch of games as well (3). He knows what needs to be done. He knows what a mayor needs, he knows how to act as a townie; negligence is not an excuse. BC is acting very out of character and it's so blatant that it's obvious from just 1 post.
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Excellent. A bunch of things to cover. This thread is exploding as fast as Qatol's game. Hopefully it doesn't turn into that quagmire.
1) Bill Murray is looking very innocent to me, based on his reaction. It's the same type of scenario that those who played in Incognito's game saw with t_co, who ended up townie.
2) Clues. It's natural that new players are obsessed with clues. They seem more reliable. Clue analysis and behavior analysis are both very difficult at first, behavior slightly more so though again only Camlito and MTF have gotten people on clues in more than 1 game. To new players, behavior seems much more sketchy, so these responses are natural.. I think nearly all of the people who are crazy about clues are both more than likely innocent and simply haven't seen the terrifying power that good analysis skills can do. For an example see here chuius game 5 (despite what may be posted in the thread nobody was actually gotten on clues, that's just a coverup for reasons I don't want to go into). This game was the best town performance ever, and it went like this (7/8 mafia on lynches) because all of the best analysts and planners were on the town's side. We had 2 mafia confirmed by day 1 along with probably 15 innocents and several power roles, and several more mafia outted by day 2. That is NEVER going to happen with clues. Because the thing with clues is that you cannot know if someone is innocent. Analysis can do that. Exactly why I'm calling Bill Murray innocent.
If you want to support using clues this early, then you better provide good support for it and not some lazy gibberish (like L has been doing, this is good). Just posting 'i think clues this early are still useful' with no support means absolutely nothing and doesn't help us learn anything about you. Remember as an innocent, part of your job is to find mafia. The other part is to make your innocence clear.
3) Running for Mayor. As all the vets know, I hate being in the spotlight, it's too time taxing. I ran for mayor awhile back as part of an elaborate plan and I ended up going insane because I was getting 60+ pm's a day. So my decision to run for mayor is basically, do I want to even possibly subject myself to that again (as it will affect my performance), or do I take the risk of letting another mafia get into power? And perhaps just as importantly, do I risk trusting the medics to keep me alive (hasn't worked in the past lol). I know I'm going to take hits because red blood will fly.
Of course the ideal solution is that I become mayor/pardoner and I stick in the shadows without being bombarbed by half the town every day. You guys okay with that? I simply don't have the time to be answering that many pm's plus doing in depth analysis on a bunch of mafia.
My plan is still under construction, not enough time yet to fully get something together. Until that plan is finalized I'll simply try to keep the town on the right track and to get people talking about suspects, because a lot of people are being very suspicious so far. More coming shortly.
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I was going to do real analysis but frankly I'm too exhausted/tired. I'm looking through and stuff just doesn't make sense. That will have to wait for tomorrow. So I'll just leave some general observations and thoughts. I do think that as L said earlier, we need to tone down the amount of fluff posts so everyone can read what is being said and not miss important parts.
So far this seems like a typical game. Normally mafia are either very active or take to the shadows and lurk. This game seems to be the latter, with a lot of town infighting and the mafia staying quiet and scheming. There's not much bandwagoning going on, just lots of confusion and various discussion of approaches etc. This isn't the kind of scenario where mafia need to post much. They just want to sit back and avoid getting noticed. Yes this game is different than others because of the mafia's goals, but they still do not want to get killed by the town. That psychological impediment remains and affects their behavior as normal.
It seems pretty apparent that the mafia are lazy and just waiting on us to waste lynches on innocents. They don't really have any reason to contribute and it's pretty clear that the people posting real contributions are innocent (I'm too tired to make a list atm sorry) while the mafia just post a bit of garbage and/or sit around.
Lastly, I want to make it clear that the people who were questioning the statements about clue analysis being useful are very probably innocent (again too tired to make a list). In such a situation the mafia is not going to want to disagree with someone like me and attract attention to themselves, while an innocent is much more likely to not care and just argue what they feel is right.
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Ok, we need to get discussion going. I don't have much time now so I'm just going to make a quick writeup on another guilty person. FYI by accusing these people I'm not necessarily saying I would lynch them but they have been suspicious and need to account for their actions. But we need to put the pressure on people who have not been acting in the town's interests.
Meeple
Last game Meeple was a Townie. Here are some day 1 posts to get you familiar with him.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 20 2010 11:56 meeple wrote:
Hmm... the biggest clue that stands out to me is the strange monkeyish reference.
I agree that highly caffeinated tea is out of place too... but it might be a stretch to think of Golden monkey black tea... unless we know that someone here is a huge fan of it. On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote:
It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. On January 20 2010 12:29 meeple wrote:
Well... although cookie monster might have "barbaric" movements... I don't think they would draw the line between him and monkey. Although, if I were thinking from a game-making perspective... cookie monster and the cookie in The_Master's profile is too good to resist. On January 21 2010 00:25 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 23:12 citi.zen wrote:On January 20 2010 23:10 magicbullet wrote:
"lifting his fists and taunting them with strange barbaric noises"
Definitely a clue in here, it does not go naturally with the rest of the sentence.
But how is these related to Hobbes or the Leviathan ? Look at Hobbes' picture - raised fists, could be interpreted as taunting + tiger could account for noises. If we're going with just imagery, we might as well consider keit and the Cookie Monster. Much more barbaric and it can be paired with shoving the apple down his throat, like Cookie monster does with cookies.
Things to note:
-Lots of clue analysis
-Actively giving his opinion
-Trying his best to contribute
-Posting extremely frequently
Now let's look at Meeple this game:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 14 2010 10:13 meeple wrote:
Clues I think are important to the game and although especially in the early game they are very little help and can sometime steer us away from realizing and recognizing suspicious posting habits.. On that note, it is very important as we saw in the last game to try and keep impartial since the mafia will no doubt try to twist the clues to sway our decisions.
Just something to keep in mind...
On February 14 2010 10:22 meeple wrote:
I agree fairly heavily with Ver's above post.. The more active posters, the less places the mafia have to hide.
Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. On February 14 2010 11:58 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 11:55 Abenson wrote:On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:
Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started.
First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on.
Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.
I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon.
ALL HAIL ACE based on the past mafia games i've read he's usually right o.o I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... On February 15 2010 03:32 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 03:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Bill Murrays defense hasn't impressed me one bit. I'm not 100% convinced he's mafia, but if he is not this is just terrible play.
Bill Murray, at the very least give reasons as to why you think those people are mafia. Why do you refuse to justify your statements? Do you actually think it's helpful to come in and say "OH BTW THESE DUDES ARE MAFIA AND L IS DA GODFATHER AND BC IS THE OTHER FAMILIES GODFATHER, L8R" Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions...
Things to note:
-Meeple praises clue analysis, but DOES ALMOST NOTHING HIMSELF
-Lots of talking to other players, but little real contributions
-Plenty of useless posts, where he writes words but says nothing new in them
-Less active overall
What do you think of this Meeple?
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On February 15 2010 02:50 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 21:13 Ver wrote:
It seems pretty apparent that the mafia are lazy and just waiting on us to waste lynches on innocents. They don't really have any reason to contribute and it's pretty clear that the people posting real contributions are innocent (I'm too tired to make a list atm sorry) while the mafia just post a bit of garbage and/or sit around.
What is your take on L and Zato-1's clue analysis then? Ace seemed to find them very interesting than that: Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:
Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.
Ace clearly says he is "not surprised" to be a target, since he is a known threat to the mafia (if he is innocent, of course). There is an implication that veteran players should know better than to go on clues so early, so veterans pointing fingers at him are presumably ill-intentioned and deliberate. Ver, on record, do you view this as background noise from both Ace and L? As I mentioned before, I personally do think we need to do some careful clue analysis. Unfortunately it will have to wait on my end, on weekends I barely have any time during the day. It sort of sucks that we have to vote by the end of today... but there will be other days I suppose.
I think L is trying a risky gambit, though I don't know enough to give a judgment on his role yet. Ace and L always find something to argue about but at this point I'm extremely certain at least one of them is mafia. This is something t I want to shed some more light on after the night is over but it's not worth it right now.
And I am out of timeeeee 
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Yesterday night I set a few traps for the mafia. Allow me to explain.
+ Show Spoiler [This post] +On February 14 2010 21:13 Ver wrote:
I was going to do real analysis but frankly I'm too exhausted/tired. I'm looking through and stuff just doesn't make sense. That will have to wait for tomorrow. So I'll just leave some general observations and thoughts. I do think that as L said earlier, we need to tone down the amount of fluff posts so everyone can read what is being said and not miss important parts.
So far this seems like a typical game. Normally mafia are either very active or take to the shadows and lurk. This game seems to be the latter, with a lot of town infighting and the mafia staying quiet and scheming. There's not much bandwagoning going on, just lots of confusion and various discussion of approaches etc. This isn't the kind of scenario where mafia need to post much. They just want to sit back and avoid getting noticed. Yes this game is different than others because of the mafia's goals, but they still do not want to get killed by the town. That psychological impediment remains and affects their behavior as normal.
It seems pretty apparent that the mafia are lazy and just waiting on us to waste lynches on innocents. They don't really have any reason to contribute and it's pretty clear that the people posting real contributions are innocent (I'm too tired to make a list atm sorry) while the mafia just post a bit of garbage and/or sit around.
Lastly, I want to make it clear that the people who were questioning the statements about clue analysis being useful are very probably innocent (again too tired to make a list). In such a situation the mafia is not going to want to disagree with someone like me and attract attention to themselves, while an innocent is much more likely to not care and just argue what they feel is right.
I made up a lot of that, but I posted it with very specific intentions at a time when it wouldn't be covered up by the mass of spam. It's very likely a number of mafia read it and took it into consideration when posting. Specifically I was looking for shifts in character before and after the post.
Points that were made:
-The mafia have been sitting back and watching the town fight itself (this was a half-truth, mafia have been posting but some have been lurking)
-Mafia have not been making posts of real contribution
-People that repudiated the assertions that clue analysis is useless this early are very likely to be innocent (half-truth, this depends on character and how they posted it)
It's natural for the mafia to want to blend in and look like something innocents would do. They would see that I pointed out that the people who question clue analysis and make real contributions are likely going to be innocent, and would want to blend in. I think the mafia are not playing this intelligently so far and thus simple bait like this would work nicely.
Several people caught my eye in relation to this case. They had posted little or nothing previously, but since have made real contributory posts and/or emphasized the purity of clues. Namely: Empyrean, Nikoner, dozko, 789, Midori, and Bloodyc0bbler. Are all of these people mafia? Not necessarily, but it is a starting point to look further. The timing and content (such as in Midori's case) might very well be a coincidence. I'll follow up on the others later, but let's look at Empyrean closer for now.
On February 15 2010 01:51 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 21:13 Ver wrote:
It seems pretty apparent that the mafia are lazy and just waiting on us to waste lynches on innocents. They don't really have any reason to contribute and it's pretty clear that the people posting real contributions are innocent (I'm too tired to make a list atm sorry) while the mafia just post a bit of garbage and/or sit around.
Lastly, I want to make it clear that the people who were questioning the statements about clue analysis being useful are very probably innocent (again too tired to make a list). In such a situation the mafia is not going to want to disagree with someone like me and attract attention to themselves, while an innocent is much more likely to not care and just argue what they feel is right. I'd agree with the first paragraph that I quoted, but I'd have to disagree with the second one. Clue analysis is one of the three main factors that the town can analyse with regard to knowing who the mafia are (the others being of course, behavior analysis, and voting...to a lesser extent). The town knows that although in the first few days, clue analysis is kind of tenuous since we don't have -that- much information, it's still an important thing. Obviously we shouldn't go around lynching people who say that clue analysis is useless, but I still would have to caution against assuming that people questioning that statement are innocent.
Empyrean this seems a little out of place. It is your only post this game. Why is that?
Furthermore, your reply makes little sense. You first say that you disagree with the second paragraph (that the people who question that clue analysis are bad are innocent), then you proceed to say a bunch of obvious/useless information. In fact it could be said that you even agree with my assertion that the town would believe that clue analysis is important. You end by saying something pointless (why would anyone want to lynch people who say clue analysis is useless, where did that come from?), then finally come back to your disagreement and say that we should be cautious about assuming the people who asserted the usefulness of clue analysis to be innocent. That seems overly long winded and your reply could really be reduced to the second part of the last sentence, or summed up like this:
"I think that we should be cautious about assuming these people are innocent."
Profound. What an insightful contribution buried in your only two paragraphs this entire game.
The last two times you were mafia you mostly sat back and said nothing of value, just like this game. This post looks like an attempt to blend in by appearing at least a little active without actually contributing to the town. Something seems out of place here.
For completeness, here is Empyrean's playing history:
Empyrean as Mafia from the first game
+ Show Spoiler [Notable posts] +On February 12 2008 07:41 Empyrean wrote:Think about it, guys. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with Tracil or anyone, but in the introduction, it's known that there are multiple mafia. I'm just a bit suspicious that Tracil's being so helpful. How do we know the mafia aren't acting in collusion to get him elected? He has a large number of votes already. After his election, in which he has the mafia vote AND the townspeople vote, IF he is part of the mafia, the game is effectively over. Mafia + major is a very dangerous position to be in. That being said, I'm withholding my vote. I want to see Tracil's defense. I also have dinner plans coming up! (I only used Tracil as an example. The same reasoning can be applied for the other people as well) EDIT: Please don't assassinate me tonight, mafia On February 12 2008 08:47 Empyrean wrote:Wow. You sure have set my mind straight  I guess we'll have to work more together then, if we want to win. My vote's going to you :D I vote for Tracil for mayor. On February 12 2008 12:56 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2008 12:55 mahnini wrote:
wait why were you exchanging PMs in the first place?
do you know each other previously OR are you both mafias and after meeting shallow made a joke about you being mafia even though your really are! I always thought all mafia members knew who each other were. Or is that not the case? Do mafia members know each other are? On February 14 2008 12:08 Empyrean wrote:
If I were mayor, I wouldn't reveal who my bodyguards were to the Pardoner. There's still a chance that the Pardoner's part of the mafia, and after he knows who the bodyguards are, will kill them off so the mayor is left without guards.
Summary:
-Emp acts like a newbie and asks a bunch of mundane questions, acquiesces to stay on the town's good sides, and says nothing of importance.
Empyrean as Townie from game 3
+ Show Spoiler [Notable posts] +On November 03 2008 02:26 Empyrean wrote:
My plan is much the same as the Mandalor plan of last game, which is to have two groups of people vote for the two top suspects. We'll have this go on for a few days, while the detectives take turns alternating checking the lists while the last detective checks one at random each night. After, say, four lynch votes, the detectives will reveal their list of how many mafia voted for each candidate, and we can use simple math from there. At this point, the two original DTs reveal their lists (and will likely be killed) while the third just waits.
If any mafia decide to claim DT and give a conflicting view, the third DT will speak up. He'll likely get killed the next night as well. But still, once all the detectives are dead, we will have six-eight Mandalor style lists, as well as the names of any mafia who roleclaimed DT (since the DTs are dead, anyone who gave conflicting information by roleclaming DT will logically be mafia).
EDIT: Two scenarios:
1. Two dead detectives, six-eight Mandalor style lists. This is if mafia don't role claim.
2. Three dead detectives, one-(however many mafia roleclaim) dead mafia, six-eight Mandalor style lists.
So this plan either leaves us with one more DT alive than all previous plans posted, or the same number of dead DTs as previous plans but with dead mafia.
In either case, we still have Mandalor style lists to work from. On November 03 2008 12:40 Empyrean wrote:
Now that we know that Folca is ostensibly detective, we run into a dilemma of what to do.
1. Paramedics protect him. This would save him from normal mafia lynches, but if a suicide bomber targets him, then some paramedics die, depending on how much protection we afford him.
2. Just let him die, and hope they use the suicide bomber, thinking that we'd protect Folca. However, the mafia could anticipate this, and just use normal hits on him, in which case if we had used paramedics on him in the first place, he'd've been saved.
Anyone care to analyze this, given our imperfect information? It wouldn't be hard to specify strategy spaces and payoff functions for each side in this scenario. On November 03 2008 13:57 Empyrean wrote:
If we don't lynch Folca, will he have a chance to use his powers again and report them before he dies? If so, then I wouldn't advise lynching Folca. He'll die anyway, so in death he'll be vindicated. If no mafia target him to make him look suspicious, we'll all lynch him anyway. That's why I don't want to vote Folca.
As for who to lynch, I still don't know if we can yet trust Folca (or he could be a mafia roleclaiming DT but Ace is also mafia...this way, Folca gains our trust while the mafia don't lose any killing power, and Folca can direct us to kill someone important later) since he's not dead, so because of this, I wouldn't vote for Ace either.
I'll still stay with what few clues we have and vote to lynch decafchicken.
I vote to lynch decafchicken.
Also, has the town abandoned the Mandalor style plan I suggested earlier? If not, then we should probably coordinate first and second suspects.
Also, when will Chuiu compile the vote list?
Summary:
-Real contributions, extremely active, gives his thoughts coherently. Is killed night 1 for these characteristics.
Empyrean as Mafia from the smurf game:
+ Show Spoiler [Notable posts] +On August 03 2009 06:33 Acidic Pirate wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2009 04:57 MasonBob wrote:On August 03 2009 02:04 Acidic Pirate wrote:
A quick note to the abstainers in the voting thread:
Abstaining does nothing for the town. If anything, vote for an inactive townie. He's either an inactive townie, in which case his death wouldn't mean much for us anyway, or he's mafia, in which case we have our first little victory. Besides, by voting for different people, you can see their reactions and use them to try and figure out whether or not a person is mafia or not.
So stop abstaining, and starting voting for people, if nothing else than to see their reaction.
:/
And it's not like by abstaining no one's going to die. Yes, someone is going to die anyway, so abstaining really does nothing. At the earliest stages of the game, we need all the intelligence we can get, and behavioral clues/analysis helps us determine who the mafia are. thx for the info that ur totally mafia and want help getting rid of townies through posting about inactives lucky for you pyr clarified that some people dont have access yet also we need someone else to be more obvious about being mafia like you so we can have a good start on the lynch wars I don't even know how to respond to this :/...when I first posted that, I didn't know about some people not having forum access. And still, it's solid advice. Maybe after everyone has access, check the inactives and target them. By the way, a common tactic for mafia in previous games was to sow confusion in the townspeople. I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to accomplish, but you're playing terribly. So either get some common sense, learn how to play the game, or lose the game for all of us. Your posts aren't useful or helpful in any capacity, and if you want to help us out, you should probably work on making coherent and sensible arguments. Show nested quote +On August 03 2009 06:20 Empyrean wrote:
Anyone know when everyone will be granted access?
EDIT: Fuck, not on my smurf account.
Oh well XD Ok seriously, I know it's hard sometimes, but these slip-ups could potentially ruin the game. If people manage to find out (or easily guess) identities, that kind of ruins the purpose of smurfing. Try to keep mistakes like that to a minimum please? On August 03 2009 13:47 Acidic Pirate wrote:
I think following a "plan" this early is just foolish, especially if not all of the details of the plan are even revealed yet. Seriously: the plan we have so far is just stupid. We're letting the mafia know who TWO of the blue players are? Are you kidding me? That's just stupid. Asking Veterans to roll call is just asking for town to lose.
Additionally, mafia can roll call Veteran. Especially the Godfather, who can roleplay Veteran - he is immune from DT checks. If a DT checks him, he'll turn out Veteran. Great, by following your plan, we potentially have the Godfather in the circle of trusted townies, exchanging PMs and being able to influence lynching decisions.
You don't even tell us the details of the plan, but for us to blindly follow you because you have a "loophole"? Are you kidding me? Asking for the town to follow such a ridiculous and risky plan early on isn't just myopic, it's dangerous.
So hopefully you're just a deluded townsperson who's legitimately trying to help. I'd much prefer that over a mafia trying to spread confusion early on and reveal who the Veterans are.
...
Seriously, either come up with a good plan that makes sense or don't try to force a bad one on us at all. You're doing nothing but hurting the town. On August 03 2009 15:16 Acidic Pirate wrote:Oh, and to glugluk: The problem is, though, that there is the potential for Godfather to roleclaim Veteran, and there is literally no way, if more than the requisite number of "Veterans" show up, for us to know who the Godfather is besides (at the moment) very tenuous clues - hell, the clues might not even have gotten to point at the Godfather yet :/....also, the Godfather has the potential to worm his way into trusted town conversations - probably game ending right there. Any detective would just see Veteran, so there's no help there. So, basically by following your plan, we give away the names of our Veterans? While I agree that we do need to set up some sort of structure (and, alas, I don't have a good suggestion yet ), it has to be safer than the one you suggested. Anyway, I'm headed to sleep right now, I'll check back in the morning. On August 04 2009 06:02 Acidic Pirate wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2009 05:50 MafiaAreJerks wrote:
Its fairly obvious after we have 2 pseudo confirmed veterans, we're going to force everyone to roleclaim, which pushes mafia into overtly playing blue or being herded into the green portion of town. If they claim blue, and the town does its job, we should have 33% mafia lists which are prime targets for DT checks.
The method mafia has of stopping it involves them dumping KP into veterans early game, which is horrible for them. If certain roles aren't fake claimed, by day 2 there should be a number of other confirmed townies who can continue the job. The problem with Rolechecks is the fact that mafia can use "Cover" which would make an actual Veteran appear Mafia, and the Godfather, who would appear Veteran. On August 05 2009 09:22 Acidic Pirate wrote:
Nice work, though we don't know if he was being covered or if he's actually a red.
Hopefully a Vigi will hit him tonight so if he does turn up red, we have some confirmed blues from which we can build a framework. If not, then I guess we lost another townsperson.
Summary:
-Lots of posts that while look like they are contributing, have very little of value and just pass judgment on other players. He posts but he doesn't contribute, so to speak. Reasonable activity but not like he was when he was green.
Overall the difference between alignments is based off of how much he actively contributes to the town.
Also Empyrean, you've been accused by several players for a clue connection. What do you think of this interpretation? It looks pretty incriminating to me and L and others seem quite confident on it.
Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 16:49 L wrote:After looking at every profile again, as well as having reread the clues, I'm pretty confident in a few additional things; Empyrean is the best link to the Angel. Just look up Empyrean on wikipedia, everything's there. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EmpyreanAs of yet, I went through the everyone's profile looking for someone who has links to fire, angels and radiance and couldn't find anyone who had more than 1. Emp has all 3, and his profile is pretty much empty; if he was to have a clue, it would be from his name.
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United States2186 Posts
Game Plan
Let's take a quick note of the realities of our situation:
-Mafia want to only kill each other. Their interest in killing townies would only be to prevent their own deaths
-Mafia do not know who the other family is, thus until they know they will just be hitting whoever they think is the other family. If they don't have any good analysts, they probably will hurt the town more than the other family.
-The Town's best interest is to keep the mafia's hitting each other while they keep whittling down the strength of the superior family.
-Mafia's have 3 KP, the most likely scenario is that the town has 3 medics. In short, mafia cannot afford to double/triplestack to get through medics unless there is a person they MUST kill.
-Medics can be used to protect known mafia members from the weaker family (if it is 5 vs 1 for example and we know the last member from a family, we can stack 3 medics on them and they will auto live).
Now what does the town control in this situation? Information and protections. Yes our lynches are important. Yes we should be trying to kill mafia every lynch. But the best use of our time will be using the superior mafia kp to get them to kill each other while we pick off the stragglers. Thus it is extremely important that we use our time to wisely to figure out as many mafia as we can as soon as possible, even if we don't have the KP for it, because we can borrow the mafia kp.
Furthermore, the low mafia KP (being probably equal to medic protections) gives us enormous influence over who the mafia targets. Mafia's CANNOT afford to have their targets protected, or they will be set so far behind. All the same, they cannot afford to doublestack (or worse, triple) so they must go for people who are likely not to be medic protected. Obviously it would be great for an innocent to assign medics directly, but we can still do this via threat in the thread. If there is a reasonably small list of people that medics are assigned to, mafia take an enormous risk on hitting anyone on that list. Similarly, if there is a group that no medics are assigned to at all, the mafia will naturally want to target that group. Obviously this relies on our medics cooperating, but I hope that you all can see the value to this approach.
Lastly, we should have a DT list of potential, but not super high priority suspects as a way to coordinate our DTs. By doing so we can have our DTs at least somewhat coordinated and most importantly, avoid DTs rolechecking someone who gets killed anyway. Ideally we will get the mafia to off a large number of themselves early on while we keep information of other mafia held back so that we can avoid any scenario where there's a power imbalance and we don't know who is left in which family. The most important use for DTs is to figure out which mafia are in which family and to get the stragglers who won't be gotten from analysis.
Essentially, we are forcing the mafia's hand to target within a certain subset of (hopefully mafia) while restricting their ability to hurt important townies. Of course the mafia could hit someone who isn't on any of the lists, but if they are doing so then they will have a pretty good reason for it, so that doesn't really affect the situation too much.
Hopefully now my actions throughout the first day make a little more sense. I have been focusing on accusing certain people and forcing them to respond to extract more information and set them up to get killed by the rival mafia. This is to get a reliable core of suspects to offer the families during this first night. Unfortunately the town (and mafia) has semi-thwarted this attempt in burying these posts and allowing the accused to merely brush off the accusations, but the evidence still remains and I will make sure the mafia take note of it even if the town does not. I urge anyone who has a strong suspect to make a compelling case for them with lots of evidence so we can have a nice platter of targets to offer the mafia (prolly around 8-10). It won't be particularly difficult to gather a smaller list for DTs to check and medics to protect.
Summary:
-Every night we should have a list of high priority suspects whom medics should not protect, a list of useful players we believe to be innocent that medics should protect, and a list for DTs to check that while not prioritized, medics can protect if they are so inclined.
-In the worst case scenario of a power imbalance, we can use medics to protect the weaker mafia family while we pick off the superior one.
I'll post the lists and all the specific stuff as soon as it hits night. Then we can discuss it a bit and make any necessary changes.
Sound good?
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United States2186 Posts
A few things to address:
-Quit spamming the thread. This is the most active game ever and it's seriously hindering the ability of a) reading important posts (they get buried) and b) forcing people to be accountable (accusations get buried). We seriously should start enforcing a rule (as players, not as host at least for this game) to ban 1 liners and any low content posts.
-My accusation of Empyrean was not final, it was a setup. He messed up but he had a chance to prove himself, which was not really granted given his and my inactivity. Rarely is it feasible to be able to declare someone mafia by analysis without any kind of response. This is why it is critical that when someone is accused with serious evidence backing it that we make them accountable and not just let them brush it off and ignore it.
It's astonishing despite how enormous this thread is, a large number of people have said virtually nothing or nothing of importance. More attention needs to be brought to light on this, as these people are seriously crippling our ability to gather information. I'm sure some of them are simply put off by how large this thread is since some people insist on spamming useless posts over and over again. We need to force these people to start talking and get real information out there.
I went through the thread and compiled a 'useless list' of people who haven't made any serious contribution this game. A certain few are not there for various reasons, though it is possible I may have forgotten some. If you're on this list, better start posting and giving the best contribution you can if you want to help the town win.
Phrujbaz
quickstriker
shikyo
Opz
Decaf
amber
Xelin
Nikoner
tree.hugger
MasterDana
JohnnySpazz
Ohn
Tredmasta
l10f
Faronel
Nemy
Shockeyy
Scamp
Cynanmachae
Sidesprang
Fishball
Abenson
If you feel you are on this list unjustly, prove me wrong about your uselessness.
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United States2186 Posts
I wish I had more time to work with this list but I'm overtired as it is and don't have time to finish the analysis on a few othesr. So I'm putting it out there now and hopefully people can add on and I can fine tune it after I wake up.
Do not Protect List:
Bloodyc0bbler:
+ Show Spoiler [Initial accusation] +On February 14 2010 10:58 Ver wrote:Time to start things rolling. My primary suspect for the first lynch is Bloodyc0bbler. Obviously he's only posted twice since the game started, an election post and another useless psot. BC runs for election quite a bit. I've taken the liberty of gathering up his previous election campaigns so you can compare them. + Show Spoiler [Chuiu's game 5 as Townie] +On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ok everyone, unlike the flashy gimicks of caller, I offer substance to my platform!.
to start with heres my portfolio.
Name: BloodyC0bbler
Mafia experience: 5(6 if you count callers as two go's), 1 game run, 1 game co hosted
Looking at just the one stat alone, I have the experience to lead this town to victory!
In mafia 2, I was town aligned and we won, mafia 3 we as town dominated the mafia, mafia 4 was ruined by a jerkoff so well, can't really say much there. Tracils game ended early, but my side was winning. Callers first game ended day one with VI win, and his second game I as VI won.
I have a high precident of winning the games on the side im part of, with ability, and luck like that, I would be an obvious goodluck charm for the town.
Now, witha ll the extra things I do on TL (PX, Location thread, etc...) You guys know I spend way to much time here, giving me the most amount of time to really jump ontop of things, I can analyze clues well which is helpful in your sheriff.
That is my background,
As for what I will do for the town to win.
As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction.
As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP.
As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first.
Now for a plan.
We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role).
So heres the plan.
Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town.
When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one.
In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after.
This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly. On May 16 2009 15:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
OK BOYO'S!
Ok guys, this game will be the hardest one potentially we have ever done, as such we need to get the mafia as soon as this game starts. I've shown a record of insane amount of clue analyzing from previous games, as such I believe I would make a good candidate for the town to keep alive. I however, would prefer to be pardoner, this allows me to help prevent potentially townbreaking lynches.
As mayor, I would analyze the clues (as this is my forte) and bring them to your attention and direct votes on the best possible suspects, thus bringing the town some central leadership to avoid chaos.
As pardoner, I would do generally the same idea, however, would use my ability to prevent lynches on cases where it appeared someone with no links was up for no reason.
Vote for order, vote for BloodyC0bbler
On July 03 2009 07:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
OK first off
I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE
I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office.
Weather
I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option.
Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out.
Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow.
This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them.
Leadership
In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order.
Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive.
Double Lynch
I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town.
These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked.
Vote for me
but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As the game as begun, it is time to get it started.
I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor.
I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly.
Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler Notice the similarities between the two games he was innocent. He comes in with a plan, goes into detail, and gives genuine advice. In his game as a traitor, he offers nothing, says random gibberish, and is basically goofing off. He makes no serious attempt to do anything. Exactly like his campaign post this game. BC is a vet, and has played more games than almost anyone else (I think only Ace and maybe Caller leads him). He's also hosted a bunch of games as well (3). He knows what needs to be done. He knows what a mayor needs, he knows how to act as a townie; negligence is not an excuse. BC is acting very out of character and it's so blatant that it's obvious from just 1 post.
Further Analysis:
BC basically dodges the issue entirely, and frankly his response reeks of a calculated play to do the things that would make him look innocent to me. This is followed up with general uselessness while not remaining completely inactive, not an innocent BC trademark.
Further slipups include telling me privately that the the two people who stand out the most are him and myself. He viewed me as being too helpful and thus suspicious, but that apparently did not stop him for voting for me despite the fact that I accused him?? He later retracted his vote for no stated reason, which makes it look more like a simple calculated reaction. He also says he has a rudimentary plan worked out, then never follows up on it in private or public. He also posts several times about how clue analysis is useless until day 3, but then acquiesces for no reason and does serious analysis in day 1. This would not be so much of a problem if it was not his only substantial contribution, but it certainly boggles the mind why someone would be so present, yet make his only real contribution on something he repeatedly said was useless.
Meeple
+ Show Spoiler [Initial Analysis] +On February 15 2010 09:13 Ver wrote:Ok, we need to get discussion going. I don't have much time now so I'm just going to make a quick writeup on another guilty person. FYI by accusing these people I'm not necessarily saying I would lynch them but they have been suspicious and need to account for their actions. But we need to put the pressure on people who have not been acting in the town's interests. Meeple Last game Meeple was a Townie. Here are some day 1 posts to get you familiar with him. + Show Spoiler +On January 20 2010 11:56 meeple wrote:
Hmm... the biggest clue that stands out to me is the strange monkeyish reference.
I agree that highly caffeinated tea is out of place too... but it might be a stretch to think of Golden monkey black tea... unless we know that someone here is a huge fan of it. On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote:
It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. On January 20 2010 12:29 meeple wrote:
Well... although cookie monster might have "barbaric" movements... I don't think they would draw the line between him and monkey. Although, if I were thinking from a game-making perspective... cookie monster and the cookie in The_Master's profile is too good to resist. On January 21 2010 00:25 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 23:12 citi.zen wrote:On January 20 2010 23:10 magicbullet wrote:
"lifting his fists and taunting them with strange barbaric noises"
Definitely a clue in here, it does not go naturally with the rest of the sentence.
But how is these related to Hobbes or the Leviathan ? Look at Hobbes' picture - raised fists, could be interpreted as taunting + tiger could account for noises. If we're going with just imagery, we might as well consider keit and the Cookie Monster. Much more barbaric and it can be paired with shoving the apple down his throat, like Cookie monster does with cookies. Things to note: -Lots of clue analysis -Actively giving his opinion -Trying his best to contribute -Posting extremely frequently Now let's look at Meeple this game: + Show Spoiler +On February 14 2010 10:13 meeple wrote:
Clues I think are important to the game and although especially in the early game they are very little help and can sometime steer us away from realizing and recognizing suspicious posting habits.. On that note, it is very important as we saw in the last game to try and keep impartial since the mafia will no doubt try to twist the clues to sway our decisions.
Just something to keep in mind...
On February 14 2010 10:22 meeple wrote:
I agree fairly heavily with Ver's above post.. The more active posters, the less places the mafia have to hide.
Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. On February 14 2010 11:58 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 11:55 Abenson wrote:On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:
Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started.
First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on.
Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.
I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon.
ALL HAIL ACE based on the past mafia games i've read he's usually right o.o I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... On February 15 2010 03:32 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 03:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Bill Murrays defense hasn't impressed me one bit. I'm not 100% convinced he's mafia, but if he is not this is just terrible play.
Bill Murray, at the very least give reasons as to why you think those people are mafia. Why do you refuse to justify your statements? Do you actually think it's helpful to come in and say "OH BTW THESE DUDES ARE MAFIA AND L IS DA GODFATHER AND BC IS THE OTHER FAMILIES GODFATHER, L8R" Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions... Things to note: -Meeple praises clue analysis, but DOES ALMOST NOTHING HIMSELF -Lots of talking to other players, but little real contributions -Plenty of useless posts, where he writes words but says nothing new in them -Less active overall What do you think of this Meeple?
Further Analysis:
Like BC Meeple, basically avoided the accusation and continued on his merry way, which he was given the luxury of thanks to mountains of spam covering up the accusation. As further followup was impossible he's not 100% guilty but it certainly doesn't look good. I want to take a closer look at him when I wake up.
Ace
My certainty with Ace is less than with the above two but Ace really has no business being protected anyway with his performance so far as regardless of role he is hurting the town.
Ace has been a consistent presence in the thread throughout the game, yet despite this fact he has given almost no real contributions at all. He has instead defended himself, caused a lot of chaos, and...not really said much else besides judging others. This does fit with his the behavior of his previous mafia performances (see here and here ). In these games Ace sits back, passes judgment on the play of others, and offers nothing himself. The only saving grace of Ace is his accusation and 'trap' of DrH, which while good seemed to be nothing more than a temporary fad that he gave up on promoting (if I am wrong please correct me, I couldn't find it via searching).
Mystlord:
Mystlord is on here at the request of L (who also requested Bill Murray but I don't see any reason for him to be mafia at all). A quick glance at his posts reveals that he has posted a bit, but said virtually nothing in them. Lots of anger at other people for being useless, yet doesn't do anything himself. This is a common mafia trait and otherwise Mystlord has done little to convince us of his use to the town.
A brief glance
Medic List:
Chezinu
Ver
Caller
DT check list:
Fishball
Shikyo
LucasWoJ
Citizen
Fulgrim
Quickstriker
Tree.Hugger
MasterDana
The DT list is rather long but there is a pretty big subset of players that we lack information on and these are some of the more glaring of those, plus we don't want DT checks overlapping.
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If someone was protected they should always call out that they took a hit.
In this case, that would be me.
I took a hit last night.
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On February 17 2010 09:17 citi.zen wrote:
The obvious question to me is "why did Ver do that?" On day one no less.
Information, why else? Of course that has no bearing on my alignment since I would need information as either faction. What you want to be looking for is what I do with the information I have.
I was looking to see a specific type of response from him if he was innocent or guilty and the response that he gave screamed innocent. Then I made sure everyone in the thread knew it, that's all.
i was certainly wrong about BC. The hitlists show that the mafia also had no idea either. There are likely 2 missing hits, 1 of them accounted for by me. So either a bomb/hit overlapped or someone else got saved.
Time to rethink the situation.
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Important Rule: When someone dies, go back and analyze their posts.
The biggest problem we face as the town is burying of posts. This is why it is extremely important that we keep track of what the dead people said, who they accused, who they supported. After this post I will unearth some of the most important points brought up by each of the dead players in hopes that MAYBE they won't get hidden under garbage again.
In a previous game when I was mafia and camlito basically ravaged our team with a string of accurate clues hits, we immediately killed him and spammed a ton to cover up his posts so nobody would read them. In this game there is the additional element that people might be dying solely because one side thought they were mafia. Given that there were zero mafia hits, either everyone is just exceptionally bad at targeting mafia or several players were killed because they were viewed as a threat. I'm guessing it was a mix, but either way this task is important.
BC:
-Day 1 clues are basically useless to use as evidence.
-Citizen and l10f have suspicious vote trains and blind from nowhere that need to be analyzed.
-Ver is playing different than he normally does by pm'ing a lot more.
Suspects:
-Ver
-Citizen
-l10f
Ace:
-DoctorHelvetica shadowed L and tried to push Ace really hard while ignoring everything else.
-L tried to force clues on him in a dumb way
-Look at the low content posters
-Bill Murray is likely to be mafia given the absurd amount he's been wrong; "trying to pull off the clueless role."
-"Infundibulum should be protected"
Suspects:
-DoctorHelvetica
-L
-Bill Murray
Supports Infundibulum
[u]Fulgrim:[/u]
-DTs should roleclaim while medics must hide.
-Analyzed voting patterns: big swing for citizen, then jumps off him. Votes on Ver, then some off him.
-Believed Redtooth and Ace were part of the same family.
Suspects:
-Redtooth
-Decaf
-Meeple
-D3
-BC
-Ace
Zato-1:
-Malongo's plan is useless
-Believes several high profile posters are mafia while the majority are lurking.
-Supports L and Redtooth's innocence
Suspects:
-MasterDana (serious analysis given)
d3_crescentia:
-BG list should be made public so DTs can check and mafia can waste hits on them.
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IMPORTANT DEAD POSTS
On February 16 2010 23:43 Zato-1 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 19:33 MasterDana wrote:On February 16 2010 14:40 Chezinu wrote:
What does tredmasta, Phrujbaz, ohN, and MasterDana have in common?
They all abstain.
They all ignored my pm's.
They shall be on the mafia' hit list. lolwut. Abstained due to no real clear choice for presidency, and my question about how important a Mayor can be went unanswered, so I reverted to abstain. Pretty telling post, MasterDana. First time I see you posting something with substance since your candidacy. Also, pleading ignorance means you're either a very lazy townie, or mafia. Pleading ignorance is a very common mafia defense. Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 19:33 MasterDana wrote:
Why did we lynch Empyrean? Going off of posting habits seems like a real stretch unless there's a hugggeeee difference. I haven't played any previous games, but reading Ver's post about Empyrean's posting habits didn't seem all that drastic. Different, of course, but enough to lynch? Not really. Alas, lynched anyways and a green lays dead. Was Ver wrong, or trying to mislead us? Regardless, I think most agree that Redtooth hanging Empyrean was a mistake for the Townies, if he is indeed supporting them. Here, you're trying to cast suspicion on both Ver and redtooth, with extremely weak argumentation. Mislead us into lynching a townie? Why would Ver want to do that, if he was mafia? Clearly, a mafia member would've preferred to lynch a mafia from the opposite team. Same goes for redtooth. So why make these weak accusations behind them? Because you're feeling the heat, and want to shift it to someone else. Again, this is scummy behavior; if you make a weak accusation, you're not only diverting attention from yourself and giving the appearance of someone who's contributing, you're also not committing to anything because the accusation is weak. Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 19:33 MasterDana wrote:
Awkward collection of thoughts, but the point I'm trying to get across is that my faith in Redtooth as a pro-townie mayor is thin. Pardon the swear, but this couldn't be more half-assed. Trying to make yourself sound like the victim whose trust has been violated, who is ignorant of how he should vote and who expresses weak feelings of distrust like an injured deer... I don't buy it. What do you have to say for yourself, MasterDana?
On February 15 2010 11:33 Ace wrote:
No Dr.H made a few very critical mistakes. In fact the first one was even thinking that me posting aggressively implies that I'm suspect. That's just wrong on so many levels because I tend to play aggressive majority of the time regardless of my role.
Then he tried to link myself and redtooth. In fact he's done this several times in an effort to say my death will imply information about him when we haven't even done anything that shows we are on the same side.
The most telling example I have is the trap I set. See I knew that regardless of what role L has, he'd attack me. In fact it's amusing that he does this all the time then people that complain about us arguing. Those people are actually my PRIME SUSPECTS because every time L and I argue a shitload of information seeps out. I'm sure L already has a list of these soon to be dead people lined up though.
The main part of my trap was seeing if anyone was going to shadow L. You know, loosely agree with some of his posts no matter how wrong they are and then try and implicate me. The mere fact that you propose lynching me on Day 1 based on CLUES is a telling point that you want to off me so bad. Even L stepped back for a second to re-asses but you kept on with the accusation.
However there was one other thing that tipped me over the edge. How is it possible that you are currently reading the thread, I'm not even posting and you want to lynch me and you skip Caller's post? That was probably the biggest piece of positive information in the last ~10 hours and you chose to ignore it.
You are definitely not pro-town. You're Mafia.
On February 16 2010 14:14 Ace wrote:
So like I said, top Mafia suspect for now is L.
On February 17 2010 08:29 Ace wrote:
Don't have much time, but Townies listen to Scamp and LucaWoj. Under NO circumstances should anyone reveal they are a medic. Those are our trump cards because whichever side is "winning" the shooutout can't be allowed to run wild.
Bill Murray you're actually one of my top 3 suspects now. No purely because of the spam, but because you've been wrong multiple times. Not even Amber[light] or Vivi57 have missed this many times in a single game. Feels as though you're trying to pull off the clueless role.
Redtooth Chezinu isn't a confirmed DT. Don't get why you are protecting him unless you feel he's the only credible pro-town player at the moment?
Also I forgot if it was you that made the "DTs can safely claim" post, and since I'm about to leave I can't check. But if anyone checks this information out and see that you made the argument, or supported it you're getting lynched tomorrow. That would show a huge contradiction in what you said and then your decision to protect Chezinu. Of course I hope that's not the case ^_^
I'll be playing for real from now on. Let's hope I don't die tonight ^_^
On February 14 2010 15:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 15:24 Zato-1 wrote:On February 14 2010 15:01 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
At this point, I'm all for citizen as mayor, last game he played extremely well, and he hasn't become involved in all of this Ace/Ver/L shaky clue analysis/finger pointing. Ver hasn't exactly been a major contributor to this latest galactic confrontation between Ace and L, iirc. I'd say redtooth and myself have been far more active in that regard- not that either of us is running for office. As to the elections, I'm undecided between I10f and L currently, though I'd seriously consider Ver if he presented a candidacy (which I believe he hasn't?). Ace doesn't seem to be accountable to anyone, and I've never played with citi.zen before. Chez... sorry man, promising to post exclusively coherent content is nice and all, but you should preach with the example rather than make promises. BloodyC0bbler's posts have inspired zero confidence in me so far... in fact, you had to look with a bloody magnifying glass to find any content in the post in which he announces his candidacy. Confidence is from ones following actions, not from random bickering. I10f has posted next to nothing for his candidacy yet is getting supporters? This is what makes one sketchy. He has votes, he has no platform past "i will lynch a previous red from another game" and bam he inspires confidence while hiding in the woodworks. All those who have so far fallen into support of him, or have voted for him are insanely suspect. Yes, my platform is next to nil, but what do you want me to do? Create a nice pretty strategy to get myself into office? Last time I did that, I got killed from the very town I was trying to lead. You can go back and read any of the games I have run, and yes i have presented a plan. But with the current setup of the game, my ideas aren't fool proof, or close to it. When I have that, I shall post it, or when I see obvious clues, I will post them as well. So yes, if you look at confidence, i currently see people bandwagon supporting and others trying to kill off veteran players on red herrings. If thats confidence, I am afraid for this town.
On February 15 2010 10:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I also advise everyone to look at the people voting for citi.zen closely. He has not been that active, and posted very little on reason on why he should be in office, and he is easily winning position for mayor at the moment. This is insanely suspect behaviour on the voters. Much like the blind support I10f got last night, this blind support is similarly interesting.
On February 17 2010 02:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
For anyone in the general know how, and medics feel free to not prot me. However, Ver has tried to guess my role, as well as actively pm people this game. Both are actions Ver rarely takes. Read earlier in the thread and you will find that he "RC'd" to BM. I will spend some time once ive showered going over his posts and analyzing him, but he is not as safe an option to prot any more than I am.
On February 16 2010 10:59 Fulgrim wrote:
Fulgrim's user's guide to night 1:
FOR MAFIA:
Town (mafia do not hit):
Caller (good albeit rare contributions, doubt there is red here)
Dr.H (he has been posting alot, but in my opinion they've been good quality, I don't see why everyone is attacking him all the time)
Chezinu (call me stupid, but I actually think he's the DT, he only roleclaimed in the thread until after I talked to him via pm)
Mafia (HIT THEM HARD)-
Redtooth (see my post above, although you can't hit him because he got elected....)
Ace (see my post above)
decafchicken- (he's lurking just like he did last game when he was godfather, also voted for redtooth with little reason)
Suspicious people (possible hit):
Meeple (election switching votes)
d3_cresentia (I felt her posts were much higher quality last game when town, also ninja voted for redtooth)
BC (points brought up previously about posting behavior)
retards-
BM (if he isn't mafia, I don't know what to say)
redtooth (even if you are medic, roleclaiming right before the election was over was a horrible move)
????????????-
L (i have no clue about you)
Ver
DT guide to checking people-
Avoid role checking the vets with the most posts (Ace, Ver) because these guys have high chances of being godfathers, instead try to check the more active but less Vet players. I also reccomend checking Chezinu so we can know whether he is actually a DT or not, or checking other people on the town list.
Medics guide to protecting people-
I would recommend protecting someone on the green list, and avoid people who might be mafia, use that thing in between your ears, and DONT roleclaim. Keep your role to yourself, you are in danger of being hit by mafia, and we will need you later in the game for sure, so don't screw up.
Vigi's save your kills for later nights
I heavily encourage you to go back and read the dead players posts. They died for a reason. They were not mafia and thus did not have any special information but they still might have said something that got them killed.
If anyone finds any other dead posts that you think should be preserved please post them asap. This is just my interpretation of what ones will be the most useful to read but I certainly might have missed some important ones.
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United States2186 Posts
The mafia most definitely did not blindly follow me; if they did Meeple and Mystlord would have died too. It's most likely:
a) Their suspicions coincided with mine on Ace and BC
b) They liked my analysis on Ace and BC and did not like it on Meeple/Mystlord
c) Mystlord/Meeple are mafia and the side(s) they weren't on simply didn't target them
Obviously the purpose of the lists was to get them killed. BC I was simply wrong about, Ace I was not sure but he was adding a lot of chaos to the town and not doing much good. Frankly the outcome of the day basically says nothing about my alignment. On the other hand, if you saw 3 reds from 1 family die and 0-1 from another, then you should start getting very suspicious.
If I was on a mafia team and I couldn't hit a single mafia or useful blue I would be uh...very ashamed haha (it's far easier knowing the identity of 9 players). Have you looked at the hitlists of games when I was mafia?
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Important Point: Mafia usually only give themselves away under pressure. If there is no attention on them, they are not likely to mess up. Thus in order to force mistakes that only mafia can make, you need to press press press them. That is why it is extremely important to not cover up serious accusations but to re-emphasize them and force the accused to respond properly.
To clarify, I went after BC hard to pressure him, not get him lynched (at least initially). I wanted BC in the spotlight so I could analyze his responses and others who responded to it.
It was his responses that made me believe he was mafia, the original accusation made him look suspicious but not guilty. However, I was a) too hasty in looking elsewhere to make the necessary confirmations and b) too much clutter to really get a solid response.
We most definitely can trust behavior analysis but two things are required:
1) The analyst must be good. Lack of activity in the past half year has made my senses rot and I'm hoping to regain them over the course of this game. But how many times are MBH or Qatol wrong about finding roles?
2) The town must aid the analyst in pressuring potential mafia. That most definitely has not been done (maybe if I repeat this 50x people will listen). All this really means is either chiming in on the accusation and making it stick or simply not letting the accused avoid it.
Mafia is a game that requires skill, rarely are mafia handed to us on a platter. Good behavior analysts are few, good clue analysts are also few. Both skills are trustworthy if the user and environment are good enough.
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