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motbob
United States12546 Posts
I really wanted Flash to win last night. I was expecting him to win. Please do not take this article as the deluded rantings of a Jaedong fan.
In this article I want to do two things:
- Show, conclusively, that Jaedong had an overwhelming advantage in Game 3 of the MSL Finals at the time of the disconnect
- Devise a theory regarding whether a regame should be granted, and show that, according to that theory, a regame should not have been granted
Flash was way behind at the time of the disconnect
In order to show that Jaedong had a large advantage, we need to work backwards. Here is the situation at Jaedong's 7 o' clock base the end of the game:
I claim that the vessels are below 75 energy because the defiler was in their sight for it to be irradiated if it could be irradiated.
The yellow blob at the bottom left is Flash's MnM army. It is moving away from Jaedong's base and going to his mineral-only at 9 o' clock to defend. A few seconds after the above snapshot, a second defiler appears on-screen. Flash apparently decided that attacking an expansion defended by two unirradiated defilers and a few ultras would be unsuccessful.
At almost the exact moment of this screenshot, Jaedong took a fifth gas base at the top right. It's difficult to see, but if you look closely at the VOD, you'll see that he moved a drone there for a while, lets it sit there while he defended bottom left, and made the hatchery very late.
Flash, on the other hand, was extremely gas-poor. Let me quote an excellent piece of analysis by EvoChamber in this blog:
[Flash's] first refinery finished at 3:20, his second refinery at 7:40. Gas mines at 100 units every 20 seconds. This leaves Flash at the time of the blackout with 400 gas left in his main geyser and 1700 gas left at his natural geyser.
Flash had just expanded to a mineral only, so no new geyser was forthcoming. In order to defend against Jaedong's gas-heavy army, Flash really needed tanks and science vessels. He was rapidly approaching a point at which he wouldn't be able to pump vessels from two ports, let alone tanks as well.
Flash was also hurting for minerals at the time of the blackout. Again, I cite EvoChamber's excellent observational skills:
At 17:49 we see one of the patches at Flash's natural disappear; given how well Flash maynards and how thick he saturated his lines, there's no doubt that the other patches were almost exhausted as well. Flash's main was mined out. He had just begun mining the six fresh patches at the mineral only south of his natural.
That's 17:49 on the game clock, not the VOD clock. Soon after the blackout, Flash would have found himself with only six mineral patches total being mined.
Let's sum up:
- Jaedong was on four gas and had a fifth gas building
- Flash was fast approaching depletion in both his nat and main geysers, and the expansion he had just taken had no geyser
- Flash was about to mine out his natural. Jaedong had more mineral patches than his drones could handle
- All of Jaedong's expansions were secure
- Flash had ZERO tanks. He did not even have a machine shop. No Flash vs Calm Game 3 this time around.
Flash was very, very behind. I give him, conservatively, an 85% chance of losing. It is difficult to visualize a situation in which Jaedong made enough mistakes to let Flash back in the game.
Should a rematch have been granted anyway?
When KeSPA was huddling after the blackout, they had to make a decision that would screw over one of the two players one way or the other. Either the player winning the match would be screwed over by a rematch being granted, forcing him to start from scratch, or the player losing would be screwed over by NOT having a rematch, denying that player of the opportunity to come back.
I posit that in these situations, it is best to take the course of action that screws over a player by the least amount.
Let's take a look at how giving the win to Jaedong affected Flash. Flash was denied the opportunity to come back. About 15% of the time, he would have won Game 3. Very simple.
Jaedong, in my opinion, would have been screwed over in a big way if a regame had been granted. The two players would have started from scratch on Odd-Eye, a map for which there is overwhelming evidence of Terran imbalance. Jaedong thumbed Odd-Eye down, over maps such as Ultimatum (62.5% TvZ) and Match Point (66.7% TvZ). Odd-Eye itself was 71.4% TvZ before the series.
In other words, granting a regame would not have put both players on equal ground. It would have taken away Jaedong's huge advantage and given it to Flash. I find that option to be absolutely unacceptable and would still be raising a huge fuss about it if it had taken place.
+ Show Spoiler [BTW] +What Jaedong accomplished against Flash cements him as the greatest player of all time. He overcame unfavorable maps and the best TvZ player ever in order to claim his third individual league championship in three seasons. Plexa's TLFE has never been more relevant.
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jaedong won, deal with it haters.
edit: You should have said something more about the 5 gas jaedong soon would have got. 5 gas equals 7,5 ultralisks in a minute. Considering the fact that Flash only got a few mineral patches left, (which maybe equals one mineral expansion only) and this will produce something more than 1000 minerals in a minute, Jaedong produces more gas than Flash produces minerals. 1000/50 means 20 marines per minute. Jaedong could have easily taken out Flash with ultralisks only.
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Correct decision. I remember the Phillies won the world series from a game that was rained out in the middle when they were ahead.
Everyone considered it legit.
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im actually ok with that game being given to JD, what isnt ok is the way it was done. Such loooooooooooooooooooooooong pause consisting of arguing had clearly influnce on both players in game 4. I doubt anyone would argue flash wasnt playing on top of his skills. This situation shouldnt happened in the first place. MBC screwed it already before the finals started, hopefully they wont find any sponsor and gom will do super duper league with english commentary. Oh, sweet dreams...
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United States44203 Posts
"- Jaedong was on four gas and had a fifth gas building"
You mean 5 gas with a fifth gas base (and 6th gas) building.
85% is absurdly low. Flash had no expansion coming and no map control. I agree with ret that the 99% Nazgul gave JD is too low and 99.9% is nearer.
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Even a 15% chance of winning is being very generous here. Flash is pulling back from 7 because he can't break it and JD has an economy more than twice the size.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
yeah, I said 85% was being conservative. The point is that even if it's 85%, the correct decision is still no regame.
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Again and again, it was the correct decision.
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Even a concerted pimpest plays dropship play would most likely be fended off by Jaedong
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I think you're neglecting how big an impact that disconnect had on Flash's 4th game.
It was basically either give the series to Jaedong because he deserved to win the 3rd game, or make the series exciting because having a regame won't depress either player, it'll just make them hungry.
I REALLY wanted Jaedong to win, but not like this.
No matter what it sucks both ways. An amazing series was ruined by a technical difficulty, and nothing short of going back in time and fixing the cables will change that. It's bullshit all the way around. The referee could a flipped a coin on the decision and it wouldn't matter. All he had to choose was which crappy decision to make. Neither can be justified.
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On January 24 2010 02:57 Chef wrote:
I think you're neglecting how big an impact that disconnect had on Flash's 4th game.
It was basically either give the series to Jaedong because he deserved to win the 3rd game, or make the series exciting because having a regame won't depress either player, it'll just make them hungry..
Thats the point exactly, it would have depressed Jaedong, because he just earned that game and had an insane advantage. On a map which is heavily Terran favored.
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Russian Federation1208 Posts
Jaedong has almost won this agree. I totally agree
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I don't think so. It would have pissed him off, but he wouldn't have played like shit the way Flash did. I mean, it still would have ruined the series because now Flash knows exactly what his build is... But I'm not arguing it would have been fair. I'm arguing we would have seen better games. The emotion felt from having an automatic loss, to having to replay a game is totally and absurdly different.
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the spirit of competition is still broken sigh; the fiasco afterwards really gave flash no chance of coming back anyway.
pretty reasonable and objective, though, motbob. thanks for the writeup
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In the end, we'll never know how the 4th game would've ended up.
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On January 24 2010 02:58 G.s)NarutO wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 02:57 Chef wrote:
I think you're neglecting how big an impact that disconnect had on Flash's 4th game.
It was basically either give the series to Jaedong because he deserved to win the 3rd game, or make the series exciting because having a regame won't depress either player, it'll just make them hungry.. Thats the point exactly, it would have depressed Jaedong, because he just earned that game and had an insane advantage. On a map which is heavily Terran favored.
It's really not clear. You know, you can not look in one's mind. This game could have make Jaedong more angry, because he knows that people will say that he did not earn this win.
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How does the map's racial advantage have any effect on what the decision should have been? It doesn't matter if the map is 100% T>Z after 100 games, if the map is in the rotation, the T player deserves his fair shot to play the game on that map.
Don't take this as me taking Flash's side, but you are the 2nd person to point this fact out as a reason for giving JD the game, and it has no place in this argument.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On January 24 2010 02:57 Chef wrote:
I think you're neglecting how big an impact that disconnect had on Flash's 4th game.
It was basically either give the series to Jaedong because he deserved to win the 3rd game, or make the series exciting because having a regame won't depress either player, it'll just make them hungry.
I REALLY wanted Jaedong to win, but not like this.
No matter what it sucks both ways. An amazing series was ruined by a technical difficulty, and nothing short of going back in time and fixing the cables will change that. It's bullshit all the way around. The referee could a flipped a coin on the decision and it wouldn't matter. All he had to choose was which crappy decision to make. Neither can be justified.
If Flash broke down mentally, it's his fault, not KeSPA's.
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Flash's opening in game 4 is expected from his standard play. He has gone 8 rax plenty of times to bunker rush and damage Zerg's econ. He's done it recently to JD in the OSL, to Kwanro, and others. On top of this, he knows JD has been doing 3-hatch before pool to counter his FE so this is his counter to JD's counter. This BO is expected and reasonable. It's so expected and reasonable that JD read it and changed up.
Game 3 Flash's army:
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Flash did get a fair shot.
And he lost...99%.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c372/motbob/JDFLASH1.png)
![[image loading]](http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c372/motbob/JDFLASH2.png)
![[image loading]](http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/9273/armykn.jpg)
