EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 83
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
| ||
|
Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
To paraphrase an earlier metaphor, I'm with Tofu now. It's time to buy lotto tickets. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:59 hzflank wrote: Deadline has passed? Yes. | ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:55 hzflank wrote: No point in looking too much into a link between Aqua and Lone until we know one of their alignments. it is not needed. This is the right answer. First we lynch Onegu. Then, we deduce possible alignments. Until then, we can only speculate. | ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Oh btw, Hurricane wont die. If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why... (I love me some conspiracy, it seems) | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote: Don't worry Onegu's gone day 3, 8-1 vote count. Oh btw, Hurricane wont die. If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why... (I love me some conspiracy, it seems) You OFFICIALLY have my attention. | ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote: Don't worry Onegu's gone day 3, 8-1 vote count. Oh btw, Hurricane wont die. If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why... (I love me some conspiracy, it seems) Don't tease me you bastard! | ||
|
Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
| ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote: hz, would me claiming Roleblock yes / Roleblock no be of any importance to you? not at all. Dont claim anything. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:03 hzflank wrote: Is it good play to both Track and Frame the same person in that situation? Why yes, yes I think that it is. It makes for a great set play. If there is an NN then the scum team can potentially convince the town to mislynch their Tracker/Watcher in exchange for the Mafia Framer. Then, when he (Onegu) flips Framer, the scum team will claim that Hurricane must be scum. It is in fact likely that a Framer and Tracker both targeted Hurricane. If you had to pick a target for this play then Hurricane would have been perfect, as his very early post was about NN policy. It would be better for the scum if they knew exactly who the NN was when making this play. Remind me who it was that made a case on day 1 that the NN should claim? Once the scum team got the results of their night actions, they knew that Hurricane was was either NN, JK or tracker. Their next play would depends on whether Hurricane was NN or a good role, so they wanted to uncover this. Remind me who it was that was so eager to know if anyone was roleblocked (inc Jailed)? Onegu claim's but does not name Hurricane. They are still fishing for Hurricane's role. Alakaslam claims Tracker. Hurricane passively claims NN. I wont go into detail, but it's obvious what their next move is if Hurricane was JK. Not relevant though. Since Hurricane is NN, the scum try to secure their day 2 mis-lynch, and they succeed. The town should all be thinking that they will night kill Hurricane Night 2, because he is confirmed town. But they will not nightkill Hurricane, they will try to nightkill me. Town lynches Onegu on day 3. Onegu flips Framer. The scum make a case against Hurricane based on the fact that Onegu flipped Framer. Afterall, what are the chances that on Night one both the Framer and the tracker targetted Hurricane? If they get the day 4 mislynch on Hurricane then they win. | ||
|
Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 30 2013 09:59 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Down in the game, sometimes you have to go for a big play. If a LoneMeow - Aqua connection makes sense, and there is plausible Mafia tenancies in both, I wouldn't fault you guys for pulling the trigger. We're getting down to desperation time, and if a red flip on one means a red flip on the other, it's worth considering. To paraphrase an earlier metaphor, I'm with Tofu now. It's time to buy lotto tickets. For what it's worth I'd prefer to lynch LoneMeow over StiMaDDict after the way yesterday's lynch turned out. Reasons:
But Aqua, this is a reversal of the read you've had all game? What changed? Alakaslam flipped town. Also, StiMaDDict's filter quadrupled in size. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
| ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 24 2013 13:36 Onegu wrote: As I have said before he provides a buffer to protect other blues, if there is a tracker for scum and it is likely and they know who nn is they can look to find other blue roles. Who cares if scum claim NN later we kill them anyway. If something wierd happens and the only explanation someone can give is I am NN we lynch them. All NN reveal does now is take away what little protection blues have. The request to ask Nosy Neighbor to claim screams town to me. Mafia isn't going to want to make a first post that is begging for attention. I would like to point out the immediate disconnect between Aquanim and Onegu right off the bat. Why would scum Onegu discredit their teammate immediately? It is important to note the distinction between discrediting someone and accusing someone. Discrediting your teammate decreases the weight of their opinion to town. This would be detrimental to the scum team in the long-run and I can see no good reason as to why they would want to do this. Although Onegu does accuse Aquanim somewhat down the line, his act of discrediting him initially makes me believe that Onegu and Aquanim do not share the same alignment. We see Onegu trying to discredit him again here, seemingly to establish town cred. On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote: I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy. This theory is further reinforced by the fact that Aquanim continues to push his belief that the NN should claim whenever someone disagrees with him about it. A scum Aquanim would likely back off to avoid attracting attention, but in this case, we see that he is adamant that the NN should claim no matter what. On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Here we see Aquanim reinforcing his fundamental beliefs with a very passive-aggressive response to my criticism to his suggestion to have the NN claim. This response was my first reason for pegging Aquanim as town. Scum would not expose themselves to this kind of risk. Scum at this point should not be trying to cause waves like this. They would be trying to develop friendships and alliances with town members. On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? On June 24 2013 18:15 Aquanim wrote: Also, @Hurricane, what is your best guess as to who's scum? We all know that Chromatically liked to do a lot of these and he ended up flipping town. When I see Aquanim doing this, I get the feeling that he is town as well. More information about people's reads = More material to work with to make a case against people. It's very pro-town. On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote: You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours. Again, we see Aqua's condescending tone shine through. Scum would not want to provoke people at this time, but town would want to provoke people they suspect of being mafia to make a mistake. On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote: Oh, I don't have a problem with you starting the discussion - but the way in which you chose to do it made me feel uneasy. Calling somebody out for leaving for five minutes? Really? A very slight gut read was really all that ever boiled down to. Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you. No, it didn't feel like either of them, but I don't expect your scumgame to be the same as XXXI - you have learned a lot since then, I think. I kept getting asked about and called scum over the NN stuff, I would really have preferred for that not to drag out the way it did. tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote). Go find some scum. ##Unvote Here we see Aquanim reasoning with himself and backing off from his accusation on Chromatically after Chromatically and I called him out on it. The important part about this post is that it seems like Aquanim is developing his thoughts about Chromatically as he writes about him. I take this to be evidence of a "stream of consciousness" type of thought process indicative of a town perspective. Town Aqua is unsure of Chromatically's alignment so when faced with an strong response, he backs off from his accusation that was initially based on a "gut feel". It got people talking and was overall very beneficial for town. I personally was able to establish both Chromatically and Aquanim as town from this argument. (see bold) We can clearly see that this is a town-motivated poke. As I mentioned before, scum would not want to do these kinds of things and risk the wrath of a strong town member. Chromatically was arguably one of the most authoritative town members at the time and pushing his lynch would be irrational from a scum perspective. On June 25 2013 13:43 Aquanim wrote: Meta in newbies is of limited usefulness, particularly for assessing scuminess directly - people's scumgames could change dramatically. However, if someone has demonstrated a capability for making cases/scumhunting/not being utterly useless/etc. there is no reason why that capability should disappear. I won't magically choose to start playing worse just for the sake of changing my playstyle. I am making the point that I can and will make cases to justify my vote when necessary, which I can prove by citing previous games. As far as I can tell, I've refuted both of the points which make up your case on me. Is there any reason your vote is still on me? If so, please share it. (see bolded) This kind of smart-ass, "I'm way better than you so you're wrong" kind of talk further reinforces my town read on Aquanim. Why would he speak in this manner to his scumbuddy? They would need to have a healthy relationship in the scum QT and lots of communication to pull something like this off. I am skeptical that they would be able to do this. Aquanim has already proved he talks like this to town (to me especially). If he talks the same way to scum, I can only imagine that he is not on the scum team. On June 25 2013 16:48 Aquanim wrote: You mentioned that he might be scum, but I haven't seen any attempt from you to pressure him, to solidify your read on him, or to suggest him as a lynch for today - that is, you haven't committed much to your read. What about his play is scummy to you? More pressure on known scum. Why would scum do this to themselves? On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. This is the thread where Onegu changes his vote from Aqua to Alakaslam. It looks like Onegu is afraid. Afraid of what will happen if and when Aqua flips town and also afraid of what will happen if he makes an enemy in Aquanim for the long-run. He cares about what Aquanim thinks. If they were both scum, he would already know what Aquanim thinks. This is a distinct difference here. I've only gone through half of Aqua's filter, but this should be sufficient evidence to convince you of his alignment. His supposed "connections" with LoneMeow are perfectly valid sentiments that can come from a town perspective. As that relationship is the crux of Hurricane's argument, I cannot rationally agree that the evidence I have presented is outweighed by that argument. | ||
| ||
