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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
EM comes out and asks for the shot on him. GGQ flips Mafia role blocker. Come on, think about it. If you are town and people are arguing between shooting you or someone else (who chaoser provided great analysis on) do you ask for a shot on yourself?!?!? This only makes any resemblance of sense if EM is mafia. I'm willing to bet he's Mafia goon. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
On May 10 2011 18:40 Kenpachi wrote: I believe i am the Vigilante?  No. You are Kenpachi. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
First question: Why would mafia double stack chaoser? Answer: They have only 1 roleblocker and he was in danger of being shot. Chaoser said Amber was Mafia goon, so they were pretty convinced Chaoser was DT. If they didn't double stack him chaose would be free to check everyone until finding all mafia. If they had multiple roleblockers they would not waste 2kp on him and only keep roleblocking him. Second question: Why did EM ask for a vig shot? Because GGQ was mafia lone role blocker. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On May 10 2011 19:15 sandroba wrote:If they had multiple roleblockers they would not waste 2kp on him and only keep roleblocking him. Makes sense. Also it´s been awfully quiet about roleblocks. If anyone was roleblocked during night 1 or 2, please come forward with it. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On May 10 2011 18:34 orgolove wrote: the +2 came after chaosers DT-claim, so should be ignored. +5 is plain bad luck for voting at the wrong time, and the +3 doesn´t mean much either, unless he KNEW who was scum. +3 from voting one of the #2s when a confirmed red was leading +5 from making the lynch a tie from a red leading lynch +2 from last minute bandwagon vote switch on a red that is confirmed to be lynched So from +13.5 we end up with +3.5... I´m not saying that this can´t be usefull data, but it´s too many random factors, like the +/-10 difference between tieing in favor of a green or red. The calculation assume that the players know the alignments, but only scum do, and they will probably not act the way you say scum should act anyway, because it´s dangerous and Town sometimes pick up on it. Dropbear could be the one anyway, but not because of the data. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On May 10 2011 19:49 sandroba wrote: His votes look a bit scummy in hindsight, as does his call for a vigi-hit, but I don´t get a scumfeeling from his posts in general. On the other hand he was on chaosers list, and chaoser has had scary accuracy so far, and I´m inclined to trust his scumsense more than my own. @Forumite So can we please slay EternalMisfit? Sure, EM deserve to be looked at as a primary candidate for a lynch. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Sandroba He, along with Chaoser, were responsible for tunneling Amber and keeping the focus on him till his lynch. If he had backed off at the last moment, it might have been likely that Amber would not have lynched. Thus, it is unlikely that his pressure on Amber was a bus either. He is strongly town in my books Kenpachi Vig claim Unless, someone else claims, he is town also. Kitaman 1. He was right on his Irish vote on Day1. 2. He called for a day vig-hit on Amber towards the end of Day2 (Amber was actually trailing by one or two votes at that point) These two events suggest that he might be town (the caveat being the above might be bussing of mafia) Voting trends on Amber and its analysis It is possible to extract some information on voting trends on Amber. The votes on Amber are split into two categories: the ones before the DT claim and the ones after the DT claim. This analysis presupposes that both Amber and Cthsazsa are not scum (which is why I don't claim all 8 early voters of Amber are definite town reads). Before the DT claim, it was a close voting race going on between Amber and Cthsazsa. Till the votes became 8-8, every vote for Cthsazsa was followed by a vote for Amber (not the other way round). Thus, the first 8 people who voted on Amber, in fact, were making Amber much more likely to be lynched. If Cthsazsa is not scum, it is unlikely that they scum will bus on Amber when he is trailing a townie (and a lot of people are convinced that Cthsazsa is scum). Thus, the vote patterns on Amber suggest the first 8 people who voted on Amber are likely to be town. Any votes for Amber after the DT claim need to be discarded from analysis since at that point, it was a sure-shot Amber lynch and scum can vote on Amber to drop suspicion off them. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
On May 10 2011 07:18 Eternalmisfit wrote: At this point, considering how badly the people think I am scum, I would recommend a vigi-hit on myself. I know that I have painted myself scum badly with my bad analysis yesterday and most people are taking for granted I am scum. Even though I know I am town, here is why it is beneficial for the town to take a vigi-hit on me: If I flip scum, the town gets a mafia kill regardless so it is a good deal for the town. If I flip town, the town does not waste the next day trying to lynch me instead of focusing on other scum. Even as town, my reads have been bad and this flip won't be too detrimental on the town. Also, unless it is confirmed that I am town tonight, my analysis/posts will most likely be perceived as scum trying to distract attention on someone. A DT check on me would not work since chaoser is almost guaranteed to be role-blocked. And, even if there is another DT, he shouldn't claim once he gets a town role-check on me since that would make him vulnerable to mafia kill the night after. The only con would be losing the vigi-hit when I flip town but in place of that vigi-hit you get a chance to focus on finding scum and lynch mafia the upcoming day. Ok Eternal, explain me something about this post. First let's agree on one thing. You are either town or mafia right? Now at this moment we were torn between a hit on you or GGQ. Explain to me from a town perspective how this post makes sense. Why hitting you instead of GGQ is benefical for the town? | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4216 Posts
I'm in agreement that a statistical approach is useful, but with only 2 days of info, we don't have much to go with, and it's going to be very easy to make mistakes..... We should not rely solely on it, although, using it to get a good read on potential scum isn't a bad use at the moment. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
DropBear said he believed you to be town. In his analysis he says the connection between elmizzt and you make elmizzt suspicious. There are several other incosistencies on DB analysis. Do you think he was being intencionally misleading? What are your main suspects right now? | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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DropBear
Australia4397 Posts
On May 10 2011 22:14 sandroba wrote: Another question to you about dropbear analysis on elmizzt: DropBear said he believed you to be town. In his analysis he says the connection between elmizzt and you make elmizzt suspicious. There are several other incosistencies on DB analysis. Do you think he was being intencionally misleading? What are your main suspects right now? I made a mistake including that in the elmizzt analysis. It was supposed to be in the following post on ilovejonn v EM, which immediately follows my elmizzt analysis. I was writing them up at the same time, I said it before. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 10 2011 16:53 DropBear wrote: K I just looked through my own posts in this game. PEOPLE I'VE ACCUSED redtooth sinani206 Irish_Punk13 varpulis ilovejonn cthazsa beneather lyter jaminz orgolove chaoser sandroba GGQ elmizzt DEFENDED AirbladeOrange sandroba KillerSOS Irish_Punk13 Amber[Light] GGQ EternalMisfit Oh dear lol. That's a lot of people. Alright I'm going to shut up now. *Note - in color I included EternalMisfit as red, and cthazsa and redtooth as green because we can rest relatively assured that they are scum and town respectively. Even without those few assumptions made, this list - made by DropBear himself - is quite incriminating. I believe EternalMisfit and DropBear are perfect candidates for looking into some more. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Yes, I am claiming to be a Vanilla townie and I think that DropBear is town as well since he claimed the same. The keyword being Vanilla. It should be possible for other townies to confirm this rather easily. I won't post the role PM since: [1] I have PM'd Node to confirm whether posting role PM (similar to Sleeper Cell Mafia) is allowed here or not. [2] I believe even if it is allowed to post role PMs, it should be saved for LYLO situation to ascertain scum (esp since it is likely that we have no more DTs). In Hindsight, the post arguing a vigi-hit on myself was stupid as I did not think it could be perceived in the way you analyzed. It just shows my inexperience with the game. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4216 Posts
Why? Because the mafia want to get rid of blues. Duh? You've basically eliminated one person who could be blue out of their pool of players to go after. @ sandroba - I think we need to focus on two strong scum candidates and see where that leads us. Right now, DropBear and EternalMisfit are two strong ones. We should probably focus on them right now. DropBear has been of no particular use to the town, and has been hindering us in some ways. Even if he's not mafia, it wouldn't be too big of a hit to the town right now. EternalMisfit is definitely scummy. That post he made at night about having the vigi shoot him was really, really fucking dumb, from a townie perspective. It's almost like he wanted to take attention away from both of them (and since GGQ flipped, well, you can fill in the rest). As for people that I'm suspicious of - I'm suspicious of kitaman27. I may be completely off the mark, but he's made a couple of posts that seem a little unusual. Others were two people that chaoser found suspicious, and I agree with him - sinani and ilovejohn. We need to let the DTs do their work now. It's completely possible that they've found a member of the mafia, but don't want to reveal it yet, because they could be gathering more information in the meantime. We're not even close to a lylo, so we're definitely in good shape. One thing I'm worried about are the millers that are potentially in the game. I'm really hoping that they bring enough attention to themselves that the mafia will hit them before a DT checks them. A couple of bad lynches + lynching millers due to DT checks could drastically change this game in a hurry. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 10 2011 22:47 chaos13 wrote: Eternalmisfit, I would like to point out that the scum team is being coached by some very experienced players. Coagulation is a scary good player, and the chances that the basic town role is called "Vanilla Townie" is extremely high. He would know this. There are far better breadcrumbs you could have chosen than that. Why not a phrase that was within the role PM rather than a generic name? The word vanilla is a weak defense of your status as townie. I posted the EXACT reasons why I did not go beyond that. I also have dropped sufficient hints in that post that people can figure out for themselves. Also, I want to make it clear that I am not asking anyone else to role-claim. I role-claimed since it seems like the town is going on a wild goose chase after me and scum can just hide through the day. As I can see, it has reached a point where anything I say/do is being perceived as scummy, I am not going to bother to post any defense of myself beyond this, and will just focus on analyzing and hunting scum. | ||
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