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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=42#825 Which is pretty solid. But also kind of contradictory with his option of not voting Amber, given the fact that amber was "appearing to be contruibuting" the same way EM was in his analysis. The main reason I believe ilovejonn to be town is because I believe EM to be scum. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
Please do it. I'm looking at each player individually now and any adicional analysis will help. Also could you please read ilovejonn's analysis and post some form of defense? | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
@Impervious If one of you could do a check on Orgolove, I´d appreciate it. I´ve noticed his voting strategy being to single out strong posters, especially trying to build a lynch against redtooth, and is one of those players that look scummy to me but never crop up when we try to lynch someone. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I just went through his posts. He is sending mixed signals to me. He has very few posts that have actual content. Most of his posts are just fluff. The posts that have content are incoherent. His first analysis Analysis of Kurumi Between these two posts, he voted for Kurumi. He doesn't include Kurumi's analysis initially but then later comes up and says that he thinks Kurumi and analytical and agressive. Up til this point, there has been nothing to show that Kurumi was analytical in nature. In fact, the only person to make a similar claim at that point of time was Irish, who flipped red. This indicates possible scummy behavior. Then, he drops gems like these ones which make no sense to me: Kevconsim Vote Unless he had not been reading the thread at all, he should have known why kevconsim was not posting (he was not playing). In fact, I point out the fact in the post just after that but don't get a response. Second gem He makes this post about a six man vote swing on Amber after Chaoser claimed DT on the previous page and the entire discussion between the DT claim and his post has been on that topic. Based on this, it can be concluded either he does not read the thread at all but in that case why would he bother to vote/post/play at all. Also, he is on near both the day posts and has the time to respond to GMarshal's troll posts. The other possibility is he is lurking scum that is barely posting enough and acting as a noob townie. At this point, I would think the scum likelihood is higher (since most disinterested townies have been mod-killed by now), but I am not too confident since I have been wrong in my judgment the last couple of days. ---------------- I am heading to work at this point but I will be back later to post my thoughts on other people during the course of the day. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
_________ Chaos13 - One of the earlier to go for Amber[Light]. Slow poster with sometimes weak arguments, but probably Town. EternalMisfit - Consistently defending Amber[Light], attacking Cthsazsa, Sandroba, Chaoser and Redtooth. Very focused during day2. Stopped the attack once Amber[Light] flipped. DropBear - Hard to read, but has one strong scumtell. The slip is that there could of course be 2 roleblockers, but DropBear knows there is only one, who just died. On May 10 2011 13:16 DropBear wrote: Good work chaoser. Sorry I accused you  After GGQ's flip we are down to the godfather and 2 goons. More roleblock claims are outright lies. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
Both your linked posts against sinani206 have to do with him not reading the thread enough, they don´t prove he´s scum. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
Fucking nice find about dropbear. For me that make's him the most obvious scum of all. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4373 Posts
On May 11 2011 00:16 Forumite wrote: Fairly certain of Chaos13, not so much for EM and DB, they could be either scum or town. _________ Chaos13 - One of the earlier to go for Amber[Light]. Slow poster with sometimes weak arguments, but probably Town. EternalMisfit - Consistently defending Amber[Light], attacking Cthsazsa, Sandroba, Chaoser and Redtooth. Very focused during day2. Stopped the attack once Amber[Light] flipped. DropBear - Hard to read, but has one strong scumtell. The slip is that there could of course be 2 roleblockers, but DropBear knows there is only one, who just died. Dude, there's only 6 mafia. There isn't going to be 2 roleblockers. Look back at old games of similar size: xxxvi, xxxv, pokemafia, all only 1 roleblocker. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4210 Posts
On May 10 2011 23:15 sandroba wrote: @impervious can you please do an analysis on kita then? Analysis of kitaman27 Verdict: Suspicious. Reason: On May 06 2011 04:30 kitaman27 wrote: Irish_Punk13 This guy has been completely absent from the discussion after initially responding aggressively to pressure. His play so far has differed from his UG game as mafia, but that doesn't mean he hasn't changed up his playstyle in a more hostile environment. By ignoring the situation, he is digging his own grave. Amber[light] None of his posts have really stood out, but its been more the lack of posts that have been suspicious. I watched him in Insane 2 as scum and he was really lurky. Right now, he reminds me of Darth from last game, where everyone ignored him until late game, even though he was a vet that should be posting. His list for scum includes 2 confirmed scum, a confirmed town, and redtooth. The scum on his list were heavily lurking, and were also identified by other people before this point, so he didn’t really bring much info here. Especially since one was mod killed due to inactivity. I’m really not sure what to make of it. On May 07 2011 04:47 kitaman27 wrote: If we agree to play along, within reason, will you guys stop spamming up the thread? A 4 page discussion about things like whether or not we should allow 4 quotes or 5 quotes in a post or whether or not the plan makes the game fun is just plain silly. Good analysis should be valued, bad analysis should be ignored. Seems pretty simple to me. I find this highly ironic, since the vast majority of his posts have been spammy, and he’s asking others to stop spamming. Ok, that wasn’t actually scummy, just thought I’d point out something that you might get a chuckle out of. When it came time to actually lynch on Day 2, he was very resistant to switching to Amber. At least, until chaoser claimed DT. Then he switched immediately. Could easily be a bus. However, this post really stood out to me when I first read it: On May 09 2011 11:21 kitaman27 wrote: No, you explain now. I'm not trusting you if you think you're going to hide something from us. After switching his vote almost immediately, he suddenly put up some resistance? That seems really, really weird for someone who’s played more than a few games of mafia. Anyone with a power role needs to take advantage of their role as much as possible, and if you’re town, hindering that plan is a bad move. And it’s quite clear that chaoser had a plan from that post. The vast majority of his posts are spammy/no content. I know I play a lot like that as well, so I know that is not suspicious of itself. He’s an anti-lurking oriented player. And I can totally understand that as well. Getting the lurkers to participate more can also help the mafia as well though, because it doesn’t allow blues to blend in by lurking as well. This is particularly useful for roles like medics. The truth is, I’m not suspicious of him because I think he’s scum, I’m suspicious of him because I can’t peg him as town. He’s someone I want to watch, but not even consider lynching at the moment. He’s been asking questions which seem to be pro-town, but I’m still not sure. Now, another thing I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention: Did anyone else notice something weird about the night kills on the first night? I didn’t really notice it until doing this analysis….. Aidnai, KillerSOS, and Jackal58 were the targets. Aidnai was a strong supporter of redtooth’s initiative. He also made a post earlier on in the night which signified that he had a blue role without actually spelling it out. Seems like a logical hit. But why were KillerSOS and Jackal58 killed? Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue. I’m not sure about it, but I’m thinking that maybe the mafia is more inexperienced than I initially expected them to be. I can’t think of a solid reason for “why them?” | ||
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DropBear
Australia4373 Posts
On May 07 2011 03:30 aidnai wrote: FoS? Vote? might we expect a fullblown analysis with an accusation soon? I must say I look forward to it if you do it. Amber is certainly a scummy player and I plan to push his lynch today, but I can't tell if you're serious about him from this post. Wow something I just found here actually, apparently Amber questioned me about the play by play on Lyter? I missed it the first time. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4373 Posts
On May 10 2011 23:05 sandroba wrote: Ok I looked at ilovejonn's posts and the only one that has major content is his acusation on EternalMisfit which I recommend everyone to read: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=42#825 Which is pretty solid. But also kind of contradictory with his option of not voting Amber, given the fact that amber was "appearing to be contruibuting" the same way EM was in his analysis. The main reason I believe ilovejonn to be town is because I believe EM to be scum. And should I and/or EM flip town, I hope you will lynch him. Look at his voting pattern as well. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On May 11 2011 00:47 DropBear wrote: You think Sandroba is Scum? And should I and/or EM flip town, I hope you will lynch him. Look at his voting pattern as well. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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DropBear
Australia4373 Posts
On May 11 2011 00:55 Forumite wrote: You think Sandroba is Scum? No not at all, I think ilovejonn is scum, perhaps should have worded that properly. Sandroba is absolutely town. The original 3 chaoser named were ilovejonn, sinani206 and eternalmisfit. The biggest reason I'm up for debate was my big defence of EM and the introduction of elmizzt, which was foolish as it's diverted attention away from these three of them. At this point I have tied myself to EM so closely that if he flips red I'm absolutely done for next lynch. I have suspected ilovejonn and sinani206 since day1 and I'm most confident about EM being town of the three. I urge people to stick to these three candidates. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
I'm back to voting EM lol. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue. KillerSoS slipped out that he was blue in one of his posts which was prominently noted by jaminz in the post following it. His kill doesn't come as a surprise. I was confident on Day2 that Jackal was killed coz he caught on the defensive behavior shown by Sandroba (since I was confident that Sandroba was scum). However, the later events of the day showed my theory to be wrong and I am puzzled as to why Jackal was killed. EternalMisfit - Consistently defending Amber[Light], attacking Cthsazsa, Sandroba, Chaoser and Redtooth. Very focused during day2. Stopped the attack once Amber[Light] flipped. Once Amber flipped red and Chaoser did a DT claim, it was obvious that Chaoser was blue and also highly probably that Sandroba was town. Thus, it blowed holes in my theory that Sandroba and Chaoser were scum and acting in co-ordination. Why would I keep going after Sandroba after my analysis was proven to be wrong? As to the other two, I don't think I attacked Redtooth. I was suspicious that Cthsazsa was scum but I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba. @EternalMisfit Both your linked posts against sinani206 have to do with him not reading the thread enough, they don´t prove he´s scum. It doesn't prove that he is scum but his voting/posting has been suspicious. If he is not reading the thread, how does he know that who all are inactive? You will need to at-least skim the thread to figure that out. Inactivity alone put 5 people on the radar which he listed so why did he go specifically for kevconsim. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Also, for a dis-interested townie, it seems rather suspicious that he is on exactly at the time of day post on both days and missing at the night posts. | ||
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