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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 79

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 16:24 GMT
#1561
On May 11 2011 01:03 sandroba wrote:
He's saying ilovejonn.

My bad.

If EternalMisfit is building a case against sinani206, and both are on the list, what does that make those two? Both scum or one of each?
:3
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4341 Posts
May 10 2011 16:24 GMT
#1562
I went back and looked at GGQ's posts again, I know he's been analysed already but I'm looking at it in a different light, relating to people who are still alive.

GGQ, among his short number of posts, directly accuses Redtooth and casts doubt on myself, kitaman27 and orgolove.

On May 06 2011 04:04 GGQ wrote:
I'm keeping my vote on Kurumi for now, but I'd also support a lynch on redtooth. He is defending Kurumi and Irish, the two most likely to get lynched today. This strikes me as scum play because a townie would be trying to get scum lynched, not trying to defend both people who are up for lynching. It's likely that all three are mafia, or perhaps that redtooth is mafia and the other two are town so he'll get town cred when either of them flips. Add in that he also is trying to discredit one of the stronger voices in this game with a whole bunch of WIFOM, and I see a pretty strong case against him.

First calling out of redtooth.

On May 06 2011 04:08 GGQ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 00:03 DropBear wrote:
On Lyter

Lyter has 3 posts in the thread since the game began properly, 5 overall.

On May 04 2011 23:54 Lyter wrote:
On May 04 2011 16:35 redtooth wrote:

To start off, let's have everybody answer the following question:
What is your mafia experience/backround like?
This can be experience in IRL mafia, approximate # of TL mafia games played, experience playing on mafiascum, "I just arrived from Noobtown", etc. Thanks!


This is my first game of Mafia on a forum, I've played quite a lot of the Mafia custom on SC2 so I know how it works but I'd consider myself a newbie in a big forum game like this.


That's cool, fair enough.

On May 05 2011 17:29 Lyter wrote:
I'm not really buying all these random accusations flying around on day 1, maybe its just me, but I'd much rather see a night through so we actually have something to work with, at this point it is just pure guesswork imo.


On May 05 2011 18:20 Lyter wrote:
On May 05 2011 18:02 Forumite wrote:
It might be guesswork but we still get information out of it, information that will be important once the first lynch flips. Also we don´t have a "no lynch" option, someone HAS to die during day 1.


Ah didn't realise someone had to die, time to do some thinking


Um, lol? This is either really nooby or just plain trying to hide. Take a stance!

On May 05 2011 22:24 Lyter wrote:
##Vote: Irish_Punk13


You obviously did your thinking. You have no other posts after your thinking post though. Please explain? I am not accusing you just yet but I'd like to hear your reasoning.


This post rings some bells in my head. There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote. Doing a PbP in this instance feels like an attempt to gain townie cred for nothing.

Here he casts doubt on me.

On May 07 2011 14:06 GGQ wrote:
It's late and I don't have time to catch up on the thread right now, but I was roleblocked last night.

My FoS is still on redtooth for now, I'm not sure if his big rules thing makes him seem more innocent or not, I'll have to go over it more carefully tomorrow evening.

Still on redtooth.

On May 08 2011 10:10 GGQ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote:
I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute.


Dont lynch for information, it just leads to endless wifom. If we lynch redtooth it's because we think he's scum and that's all. His day 1 posts gave me a scum read, his actions since then haven't saved him in my eyes, but haven't made him more guilty either. I'm willing to give him some more time. He posts a lot, anyways, so if he's mafia he'll give himself up.

Cthazsa seems to be a lot quieter now than he was on the first day, and I can't explain why. He responded with lots of posts to jackal's pressure, but now he's gone afk because of the pressure today? Maybe just because he's now a viable lynch target? His actions seems scummy enough, but I never got that vibe from his posts. I'd like to see an analysis by someone I trust more than redtooth showing him as scum.

Amber seems the scummiest to me from his posts so far, but there just aren't that many of them. Amber, if you were a dayvig and had to use your power to avoid a lynch, who would you shoot?

Not sure what he's saying about redtooth here? He does attack orgolove though.

On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:
I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum.

Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes.

On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (:


On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
On May 05 2011 07:13 Cthsazsa wrote:
Why would we vote off inactives? We should leave them be. If they are mafia, well they aren't that much of a threat to us since they're not participating. On the other hand, if they're a townie then that'll just put a crutch in us. We'll lose a townie, PLUS we'd have wasted our votes.

People insisting that we vote off inactives just seems suspicious to me.

Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.


Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum.


The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away.

On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him?

##Vote: Beneather

This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind.


Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in...


And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid.

Is this casting doubt on kita? It's kind of vague.

I'd like to think this is evidence to clear me, but it isn't really solid. I'd also like to think it clears kita, redtooth and orgolove as well but I'm not so sure.
Sucker for nostalgia
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 16:32 GMT
#1563
@DropBear
GGQ doesn´t clear either DropBear, Kitaman or orgolove, he disagrees with them all, but no strong FoS against any of them, at least I didn´t find any. .
:3
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4341 Posts
May 10 2011 16:35 GMT
#1564
On May 11 2011 01:24 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 11 2011 01:03 sandroba wrote:
He's saying ilovejonn.

My bad.

If EternalMisfit is building a case against sinani206, and both are on the list, what does that make those two? Both scum or one of each?

sinani is possible scum as well.

I am at this point tied to EM. I seriously hope I'm right about you man.

I have accused ilovejonn and sinani.
EM has accused sinani
ilovejonn accused EM
Who has sinani accused? kevconsim/Impervious. That's it.

There's this too.
On May 09 2011 11:49 sinani206 wrote:
Wait what? A six person swing vote? Aren't there six mafia?


Is it really feasible for the entire mafia team to be on the Cthazsa train? I'm not so sure. Surely they'd have one person off it just in case it went bad? Sinani was on kevconsim/Impervious instead.

At the moment everyone is letting us fight it out regarding ilovejonn and sandroba v me and EM.
This whole argument has had very little input from others so far.... only Mig and kevconsim/Impervious have weighed in at all. Sinani himself has gone quiet.

Maybe I should switch to sinani206 and see who comes out to defend him... oh fuck I don't know.
Sucker for nostalgia
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4341 Posts
May 10 2011 16:39 GMT
#1565
On May 11 2011 01:32 Forumite wrote:
@DropBear
GGQ doesn´t clear either DropBear, Kitaman or orgolove, he disagrees with them all, but no strong FoS against any of them, at least I didn´t find any. .

Yeah I know I said in the post is isn't solid enough. The one closest to an FoS is on me.
On May 06 2011 04:08 GGQ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 00:03 DropBear wrote:
On Lyter

Lyter has 3 posts in the thread since the game began properly, 5 overall.

On May 04 2011 23:54 Lyter wrote:
On May 04 2011 16:35 redtooth wrote:

To start off, let's have everybody answer the following question:
What is your mafia experience/backround like?
This can be experience in IRL mafia, approximate # of TL mafia games played, experience playing on mafiascum, "I just arrived from Noobtown", etc. Thanks!


This is my first game of Mafia on a forum, I've played quite a lot of the Mafia custom on SC2 so I know how it works but I'd consider myself a newbie in a big forum game like this.


That's cool, fair enough.

On May 05 2011 17:29 Lyter wrote:
I'm not really buying all these random accusations flying around on day 1, maybe its just me, but I'd much rather see a night through so we actually have something to work with, at this point it is just pure guesswork imo.


On May 05 2011 18:20 Lyter wrote:
On May 05 2011 18:02 Forumite wrote:
It might be guesswork but we still get information out of it, information that will be important once the first lynch flips. Also we don´t have a "no lynch" option, someone HAS to die during day 1.


Ah didn't realise someone had to die, time to do some thinking


Um, lol? This is either really nooby or just plain trying to hide. Take a stance!

On May 05 2011 22:24 Lyter wrote:
##Vote: Irish_Punk13


You obviously did your thinking. You have no other posts after your thinking post though. Please explain? I am not accusing you just yet but I'd like to hear your reasoning.


This post rings some bells in my head. There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote. Doing a PbP in this instance feels like an attempt to gain townie cred for nothing.

Sucker for nostalgia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 16:47 GMT
#1566
@DropBear you are not tied with EM. Those posts from GGQ are interesting for sure and made me reconsider.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 16:50 GMT
#1567
@Forumite Depends. If I was in EM's position being mafia, I probably would make a case against another member so if I actually got lynched my buddy would have a better chance. It does not mean anything.
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9244 Posts
May 10 2011 16:51 GMT
#1568
On May 11 2011 00:39 Impervious wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2011 23:15 sandroba wrote:
@impervious can you please do an analysis on kita then?


Analysis of kitaman27

Verdict: Suspicious.



Reason:

Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 04:30 kitaman27 wrote:
Irish_Punk13

This guy has been completely absent from the discussion after initially responding aggressively to pressure. His play so far has differed from his UG game as mafia, but that doesn't mean he hasn't changed up his playstyle in a more hostile environment. By ignoring the situation, he is digging his own grave.

Amber[light]

None of his posts have really stood out, but its been more the lack of posts that have been suspicious. I watched him in Insane 2 as scum and he was really lurky. Right now, he reminds me of Darth from last game, where everyone ignored him until late game, even though he was a vet that should be posting.

His list for scum includes 2 confirmed scum, a confirmed town, and redtooth. The scum on his list were heavily lurking, and were also identified by other people before this point, so he didn’t really bring much info here. Especially since one was mod killed due to inactivity. I’m really not sure what to make of it.


I'm not really sure how this post is scummy. I also believe I was one of the first people to bring up Amber and pressure him to post on day one.

On May 11 2011 00:39 Impervious wrote:
When it came time to actually lynch on Day 2, he was very resistant to switching to Amber. At least, until chaoser claimed DT. Then he switched immediately. Could easily be a bus.

However, this post really stood out to me when I first read it:

Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 11:21 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 09 2011 11:20 chaoser wrote:
I will explain after everything is settled


No, you explain now. I'm not trusting you if you think you're going to hide something from us.

After switching his vote almost immediately, he suddenly put up some resistance? That seems really, really weird for someone who’s played more than a few games of mafia. Anyone with a power role needs to take advantage of their role as much as possible, and if you’re town, hindering that plan is a bad move. And it’s quite clear that chaoser had a plan from that post.


I thought that "I'll explain after" post was in response to this one:

On May 09 2011 11:20 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 11:16 chaoser wrote:
Ok, so I think I've gathered enough data. I am a Detective. I'm pretty sure mafia aren't going to let me live tonight. I checked Amber last night and he came up red. That's why I've been tunneling so hard idiots...

VOTE AMBER

Ok, this changes things. What role did he come back as? There are millers as well, but I'm much more inclined to vote with you now.


When in actuality it was in response to this one:

On May 09 2011 11:20 redtooth wrote:
We are definitely going to fumble this lynch. What the hell were you doing? Fuck and I was going to let you off the hook if Irish got modkilled since you called my bluff. This game is absolutely ridiculous and I am REALLY not happy.


At the time, it made no sense for the dt to not reveal what he found. If you continued reading a couple posts later, you would see once he posted the role he found, I realized I misunderstood:

On May 09 2011 11:26 kitaman27 wrote:
Oh I read that in the wrong order. I thought you weren't going to explain what role he came back as >.<


Kinda seems like you are grasping at straws Impervious. The fact that no one has done an analysis on irish or Amber post death is weird, so I'll do that in a couple minutes. One thing I have to say is what is with these random vanilla town role claims? DropBear, someone looks at you the wrong way and you spill the beans? What's up with that?
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 16:54 GMT
#1569
Go back in the thread and look at EM's analysis on me. He had the thing ready and was waiting for me to post mine just to post his.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 16:59 GMT
#1570
On May 11 2011 01:39 DropBear wrote:
Yeah I know I said in the post is isn't solid enough. The one closest to an FoS is on me.
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 04:08 GGQ wrote:
On May 06 2011 00:03 DropBear wrote:
On Lyter

Lyter has 3 posts in the thread since the game began properly, 5 overall.

On May 04 2011 23:54 Lyter wrote:
On May 04 2011 16:35 redtooth wrote:

To start off, let's have everybody answer the following question:
What is your mafia experience/backround like?
This can be experience in IRL mafia, approximate # of TL mafia games played, experience playing on mafiascum, "I just arrived from Noobtown", etc. Thanks!


This is my first game of Mafia on a forum, I've played quite a lot of the Mafia custom on SC2 so I know how it works but I'd consider myself a newbie in a big forum game like this.


That's cool, fair enough.

On May 05 2011 17:29 Lyter wrote:
I'm not really buying all these random accusations flying around on day 1, maybe its just me, but I'd much rather see a night through so we actually have something to work with, at this point it is just pure guesswork imo.


On May 05 2011 18:20 Lyter wrote:
On May 05 2011 18:02 Forumite wrote:
It might be guesswork but we still get information out of it, information that will be important once the first lynch flips. Also we don´t have a "no lynch" option, someone HAS to die during day 1.


Ah didn't realise someone had to die, time to do some thinking


Um, lol? This is either really nooby or just plain trying to hide. Take a stance!

On May 05 2011 22:24 Lyter wrote:
##Vote: Irish_Punk13


You obviously did your thinking. You have no other posts after your thinking post though. Please explain? I am not accusing you just yet but I'd like to hear your reasoning.


This post rings some bells in my head. There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote. Doing a PbP in this instance feels like an attempt to gain townie cred for nothing.

Yes, it is a FoS, a weak one though. PbP analysies are ALWAYS the way to go

On May 11 2011 01:35 DropBear wrote:oh fuck I don't know.
And neither do I.

IMO EM remain a better target than DB
:3
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4341 Posts
May 10 2011 17:04 GMT
#1571
On May 11 2011 01:51 kitaman27 wrote:
One thing I have to say is what is with these random vanilla town role claims? DropBear, someone looks at you the wrong way and you spill the beans? What's up with that?

Well because I fucked up my analysis. I'm claiming to try and clear myself.

On May 10 2011 16:32 DropBear wrote:
I seem to have misplaced some bits in my analysis.

"an interesting exchange with kitaman27" is supposed to be after "here is some explanation of voting for voting Beneather".

"There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit" should have gone in the following post regarding ilovejonn. I was writing them up at the same time.

Ok I went over it again. I did misinterpret the first line.

The posting of the Ver bit was a mistake. I'm not mafia sandroba. I'm a vanilla townie.


This was followed by orgolove's big data post pointing me as the number one target. Then I get a big accusation from sandroba, who is a confirmed townie.

On May 10 2011 17:20 sandroba wrote:
Man I can't believe this. DropBear is mafia. He says elmizzt is suspicious for interacting with EM and then says EM is town. LOL way to go DropBear.
I'm saying this right now EM is mafia and so is DropBear.
I'm also willing to bet that EM is Mafia goon and asked for a vig shot so we would not kill GGQ, the mafia RoleBlocker.


Plus a push from orgolove.
On May 10 2011 17:44 orgolove wrote:
We can only lynch one at a time. Our targets converge on DropBear. Lets take care of the immediate threat first.


I would imagine EM is claiming for the same reason, an accusation from sandroba who is pretty much confirmed town.
Sucker for nostalgia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 17:08 GMT
#1572
DropBear, did you read the analysis ilovejonn's made on EM? I posted a link to it some posts ago.
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4341 Posts
May 10 2011 17:11 GMT
#1573
On May 11 2011 02:08 sandroba wrote:
DropBear, did you read the analysis ilovejonn's made on EM? I posted a link to it some posts ago.

I most certainly have.
Sucker for nostalgia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 17:29 GMT
#1574
I can see how ilovejonn can be scum and his analysis of EM and explanation for not voting for Amber are quite contradictory indeed. The thing is I'm having a hard time actually seeing a scenario where Eternal is not scum.

sinani206 is either from another planet or scum. Either way he is useless. If he is not mafia, mafia is certanly not getting rid of him for us. We are going to have to lynch him sooner or later, but today is a very important day, since if we kill mafia their kp gets reduced.

@Imprevious I've read all kita's posts and I'm not in the slightest confident in calling him scum.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 17:29 GMT
#1575
On May 11 2011 02:11 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 11 2011 02:08 sandroba wrote:
DropBear, did you read the analysis ilovejonn's made on EM? I posted a link to it some posts ago.

I most certainly have.
So you are saying that it´s like this?
EternalMisfit
Ilovejonn
Elmizzt
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 17:31 GMT
#1576
Ilovejonn only ever voted for Cthsazsa or players that flipped Town.
:3
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4341 Posts
May 10 2011 17:36 GMT
#1577
On May 11 2011 02:29 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 11 2011 02:11 DropBear wrote:
On May 11 2011 02:08 sandroba wrote:
DropBear, did you read the analysis ilovejonn's made on EM? I posted a link to it some posts ago.

I most certainly have.
So you are saying that it´s like this?
EternalMisfit
Ilovejonn
Elmizzt

Drop elmizzt. The first bit of my analysis of him was a complete misread lol. Leave him for later, if at all.

I believe:
EternalMisfit is town
and one of either ilovejonn or sinani is red. It's feasible for both of them to be. I'll vote for either.
Sucker for nostalgia
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4341 Posts
May 10 2011 17:39 GMT
#1578
On May 11 2011 02:29 sandroba wrote:
I can see how ilovejonn can be scum and his analysis of EM and explanation for not voting for Amber are quite contradictory indeed. The thing is I'm having a hard time actually seeing a scenario where Eternal is not scum.

sinani206 is either from another planet or scum. Either way he is useless. If he is not mafia, mafia is certanly not getting rid of him for us. We are going to have to lynch him sooner or later, but today is a very important day, since if we kill mafia their kp gets reduced.

@Imprevious I've read all kita's posts and I'm not in the slightest confident in calling him scum.

The other thing to take into account is experience. sinani206 is playing his first game. EM is a relative newbie. ilovejonn has been around for a while.
Sucker for nostalgia
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 17:40 GMT
#1579
I don´t see a point in waiting. Voting until a better target comes up.

##Vote: sinani206
:3
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2572 Posts
May 10 2011 17:44 GMT
#1580
Can someone tell me why Cthsazsa is cleared now? When I checked out all of his posts the other day there was a clear sense that he was wishy washy and never wanted to make a stand against anyone. But after Amber flipped red something changed but I don't recall it being a one or the other is red situation. Also I pushed him pretty hard and stuck with it and want to make sure we have enough to clear him or have bigger threats.

I'm not a big fan of the statistical analysis and using numerical values to determine one's scumminess. Maybe it's just because I hate math or maybe because I'm high on that list but certain things just don't seem to be a good indicator of how likely someone is to be mafia. Voting for town can just mean someone had a bad read, it happens to everyone. Changing a vote isn't scummy as long as the player provides a convincing reason for doing so. When they voted can just mean they wanted to see any developments that could happen before the day ends or they had other IRL things to do.

I'm not sure where I stand on EternalMisfit.

I think Sandroba is town and has gained a lot of town cred after the night.

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