EPTResistance 3 - Page 49
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Team 2 Leader: Corazon Proposed Team: Corazon, Rayn, VisceraEyes, Chairman Ray Final Votecount Hopeless1der: Yay Raynpelikoneet: Nay Grackaroni: Nay Coagulation: Nay Koshi: Nay Chairman Ray: Nay [UoN]Sentinel: Nay Corazon: Not voting VisceraEyes: Not voting Corazon's team has been rejected! The new leader is Chairman Ray! Corazon and VisceraEyes have been warned for not voting. If either of them commit a second offense, they will be removed from the game. Day 3: Phase 1 Team 3 Current Leader: Chairman Ray Deadline to Propose a Team: 04:00 GMT (+00:00) Countdown: | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
If we pass this on my turn, we then pass the 4th mission on rayn's turn. Out of the 5 following players, Koshi is the confirmed town, so we have one chance to pass the 5th mission on his turn. If we reject this on my turn, we then pass this mission on rayn's turn. Koshi will take the 4th mission, and then I have to take the last mission. I think either way is fine. Anyways, onto the team. Right now, Koshi and I are confirmed town due to last mission's behavior as explained in my previous post. The only way that either of us is a spy is if two or more town decided to throw the game. If we're willing to go that far for reads, then there's a lot of other highly unlikely reads we can also make, and at that point we can't draw any conclusion at all. I have to put Koshi in the mission, and if Koshi turns out to be spy, the fault lies in those who threw the game for town. Koshi and I are in. Next I would like to put Rayn in. For the entirety of the game, Rayn has not made a single action that is consistent with a spy agenda. Since the spies are 2 missions up, even if Rayn was a spy, there can't be any more information gained from missions and voting that can point him to being a spy. The only thing that can happen is that Rayn yay votes a guaranteed scumteam prior to there being 4 yay votes already on the field. I don't even mind saying it because there's no way he could make that mistake as spy. So due to Rayn not able to be proven as spy at this point, we have to put him in the mission assuming he is town. Now we have to choose the last person on the mission. I can divide the remaining players into two groups - those that went on the last mission, and those who did not and yayed it. Went on mission: Grack, Corazon, VE Yayed the mission: Coag, Hopeless, Sentinel I believe that there is one spy in the first group and two in the second. This is due to there being three yay votes outside the mission. A town could potentially give the first yay vote, but it's very bad to give the second yay vote, and completely throwing the game to give the third yay vote. On second thought, I'm just going to base the rest of the game assuming that there being 2 spies in the second group is confirmed. If I am wrong, it's their fault for confirming themselves as spy. Firstly let's look at the second group. Hopeless has been confirmed as spy on multiple occasions. Sentinel has been confirmed as spy on the occasion where he gave the final yay vote on the failing mission when there were two yay votes from outside the mission. He claimed it was a mistake, so overall, I'm thinking the following spy probabilities: Coagulation - low Hopeless - guaranteed Sentinel - high The question now is do we pick someone from the first group to send and go with a 66.6% chance of hitting a town, or do we go with Coag? We have to pick two people on mission 5 anyways, so the permutations include: -Coag mission 3, someone from group 1 mission 5 -Someone from group 1 mission 3, Coag mission 5 -Someone from group 1 mission 3, another from group 1 mission 5 Either way, we have to include someone from group 1, so let's look at who the best choice is. What we know so far is Hopeless is on the spy team with one of them, and most likely Sentinel, possible Coag. So let's look at the history between every permutation. Grack - Hopeless Grack downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it. After Grack downvoted it, the votes were 5-4 in favor of passing, but then Adam changed his vote. Would make sense if Grack was town or if the spy team was Grack/Hopeless/Coag. Hopeless yayed the second mission where Grack was in, making it 4-1. The mission included Grackaroni, Corazon, VisceraEyes, raynpelikoneet. If Grack wasn't the spy in the mission, one of the others has to be it. Grack - Sentinel Grack nay voted the second mission where the team was VE, Sentinel, Corazon, making the vote 4-4. Grack less likely to be spy with Sentinel. Grack - Coag Grack downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it. After Grack downvoted it, the votes were 5-4 in favor of passing, but then Adam changed his vote. Makes sense if Grack is town or if the spy team was Grack/Coag/Hopeless Corazon - Hopeless Corazon downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it, making the vote 5-3. Makes sense if Corazon is town if it Hopeless/Corazon/Coag is the spy team. Corazon downvoted the second mission where it was Koshi/Hopeless/Rayn. Corazon was bussing Hopeless at this point so he has to anyways. Corazon - Sentinel In VE's team that was proposed with VE/Corazon/Sentinel, both of them yayed it. Corazon - Coag Corazon downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it, making the vote 5-3. Makes sense if Corazon is town, or if Coag/Corazon/Hopeless is the spy team. VE - Hopeless VE downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it, making the vote 3-2. Makes sense if VE is town, or if VE/Hopeless/Coag is the spy team. Hopeless downvoted the team that VE proposed on mission two. VE - Sentinel VE put sentinel in the second mission when VE was leader. Both VE and Sentinel approved it. Less likely for these two to be spy together, but not by much. VE- Coag VE downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it, making the vote 3-2. Makes sense if VE is town, or if VE/Hopeless/Coag is the spy team. Adam downvoted the second mission when VE proposed VE/Sentinel/Cora, making the vote 3-3. Adam less likely to be spy with Coag. In all cases, there is possibility for spies being meta or bussing each other, which will be considered. Will continue this tomorrow with permutation of 3 spies instead of just 2, and also look more into dialogue between people. Team so far Chairman Ray, Raynpelikoneet, Koshi | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Corazon - Hopeless Corazon downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it, making the vote 5-3. Makes sense if Corazon is town if it Hopeless/Corazon/Coag is the spy team. Corazon downvoted the second mission where it was Koshi/Hopeless/Rayn. Corazon was bussing Hopeless at this point so he has to anyways. I don't understand this part. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On January 09 2014 17:02 Koshi wrote: CR so good. So good. I don't understand this part. The first part of that isn't a strong indication of much. If there were 5 yay votes already, if Corazon was expecting the vote to pass, he could put anything down. The second part, I was referring to the mission: Team: Koshi, Hopeless1der, raynpelikoneet Team 3 Current Leader: Koshi Current Vote Count: Corazon: Nay Hopeless1der: Yay Coagulation: Yay Chairman Ray: Yay Koshi: Yay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay VisceraEyes: Yay Raynpelikoneet: Yay When looking at this vote and looking at how Corazon has been speaking to Hopeless for that portion of the game, it would seem that they are not spies together, but I've gone through Corazon's previous games as scum, and he is definitely capable of bussing teammates hard. So even though Corazon instantly nay voted a team that Hopeless was on, it doesn't make it less likely that they are spy together. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Proposed Team: Grackaroni, Corazon, VisceraEyes, raynpelikoneet Team 1 Current Leader: Grackaroni Final Vote Count: VisceraEyes: Yay Corazon: Yay Koshi: Nay Coagulation: Yay Hopeless1der: Yay [UoN] Sentinel: Yay raynpelikoneet: Nay Grackaroni: Nay Chairman Ray: Nay | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On January 06 2014 03:56 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Oh... was I #5? I'm unsure of what's going on with Grack. I thought he was town for a while... maybe not... Adam/Coag-Hopeless-Grack might be the scumteam after all based on the voting. On January 06 2014 08:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I really fucked this one up. 2 scummers from Coag/Hopeless/CR 1 scummer from the team (Grack?) I'm thinking rayn/koshi/cora/VE After that he never touched on the subject again, so not a lot of effort was spent defending himself even though we keep bringing up that he's confirmed spy. If I was in his position as town, I would definitely be spending a lot of effort trying to reprove that I am town. I guess that's good enough for me. With Hopeless+Sentinel as confirmed spy, Coag should be going on the next mission then. Then it's between Grack, VE, and Cora for the last slot. 66.6% victory if we RNG it. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
Like if you compre to a normal mafia game it's like saying "i copped the confirmed town over the scummy people" because i don't like him being inactive. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
I would pick me -> VE -> Grack ->Cora in order from most likely town -> most likely scum. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Then I would add VE as townie on how Cora defended him. Grack we bench. | ||
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