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All right guys, some debriefing should take place. I agree that we shouldn't back off during the night. It is crucial we get it right this time. Let's see what we have:
YourHarry
Extremely weird player. My main theory against him was that he was trying to do a lame bus on thrawn. Granted as thrawn was indeed vigi, this is not the case.
However, his posts and comments generally are inconsistent, lack explanations, and keep changing. His posts are a diarrhea of WIFOM that I've decided are only here to confuse us with its vagueness, lack of clarity, and lack of purpose. Observe:
I am having second thoughts about Thrawn. First thing that doesn't make sense if Thrawn is scum: If Thrawn is indeed scum then he left that "bread crumb" post so that he can use that as evidence to mislead the town that he is vigilante. But Thrawn denied this post as the "bread crumb" post, and in his initial claim, he never even referenced this post in the first place...
Mega power WIFOM.
Second thing that I am not sure about is that, claiming vigilante is so dangerous for scum. One weak point in this line of thinking is that Thrawn did ask the mod to confirm that there could be more than one vigilante. I think it is possible that scum Thrawn DID ask the moderator in private prior to asking publicly that there could be more than one vigilante.
What is this supposed to implicate? Useless garbage.
STILL, whether or not there could be two vigilante... a counter vigilante claim would definitely have made Thrawn look suspicious. Would it not? I am not sure scum would have taken this risk.
He keeps babbling, and doesn't make a point. How in anyway is this post helping town? And we keep going:
But I am scared to unvote, because I will be the next person to be lynched after Thrawn
What is this supposed to mean? Is he a scum that wants us to think this or is he a townie that wants us to think that he is thinking... oh wait, WIFOM. This statement means CRAP.
... and more ....
I am not super confident in my scum read. Upon my reading just now, I found Jhyut case's scummy. Sheeping Thrawn's case here, but Jhyut did not care whether I am town or scum - he wanted to lynch me. I thought he was something else, but I guess I was wrong again. HE is also lurking pretty hard, so he may turn out to be scum
Crappety crap crap CRAP. He is randomly throwing around suspicions and not committing to anything. This in no conceivable way helps town.
My case against Golbat and Darth was based on my scum read on Thrawn. Not sure anymore.
Scumslip? How does he suddenly know that thrawn is not scum? Oh, that's right, he decided thrawn isn't scum with his brilliant and well thought-out argument, quoted above.
I'm sure we can agree that his posts don't help the town and scream scum. Even though there was strong evidence that thrawn and YH were scum, due to the way they were playing it D1, I am still inclined to think he is scum. This requires much more thought, as we will have to be certain that we lynch a scum in the next day.
Jhuyt
He is a quiet and lurky player. He mentions possibilities, without compromise, and doesn't take a stance on anything.
The more I think of it the more I find that either Shady or Thrawn is scum. But since my basis of suspicion against Thrawn is basically gone I really can't vote for him. I think this post + Show Spoiler + coupled with Thrawn's reason to accuse Arch is enough for me too consider Shady as scum.
##Vote: Shady Sands
I have to go for the next couple of hours so I won't be here for the conclusion of the day, see ya later.
Bases himself off completely off of someone else's arguments, and announces he will have to leave. He then makes complains about how wishy-washy YourHarry is, says it is urgent that we lynch him, and starts to make shallow arguments on GK:
When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum.
The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression.
I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion.
But still considering YourHarry's wishy-washyness more scummy. Gets attacked by thrawn, who basically states the same things I'm saying right now, and is defended with weak and contentless posts. He simply doesn't take a solid stance on anyone (except maybe for YH). He's generally much more lurkier and gives off too few to work with.
Golbat
Beastly Lurker. Joined on the thrawn bandwagon and disappeared. We should have lynched him a long time ago. This makes me understand why lurker policy needs to be so strong. If he was a civilian before, then we would be down a lurking civilian who was not helping at all. Now, however, we cannot afford another misslynch, and have to be more careful. But since he has barely any posts, it will be very hard to determine for sure what he is.
goodkarma and DarthPunk
I wanted to make sure that I wasn't skipping any details on the non-obvious choices. I've noticed some weird behavior on GK, which I've already mentioned. Since I've already gone through thrawn's filter, I can understand where GK could have found some reason to back off of thrawn. I don't think he is scum, as I can't think of why a scum would go ahead and say I'M SURE HES GUILTY, to backing off entirely. Scum generally take hesitant postures that lack commitment and conviction.
I've read DarthPunk's filter carefully and wasn't able to detect anything too suspicious or compromising, as he has been making accusations and backing them up with well explained arguments.
Also, both him and goodkarma have been making tons of pro-town and meaningful accusations. If one of them is mafia, it is not in this round that we will be able to lynch them unless we can pick up on something not yet noted.
Stutters and Obvious to come. I'm sleepy and have to wake up early tomorrow. Please, be active, let me know what you think of this post and contribute your own ideas and suspicions as well.
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EBWOP:
and SolarSail of course. I've been ignoring him ever since his childhood days.
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OK we are in a terrible situation. I blame myself for being active and building the majority of the case on Thrawn along with Goodkarma. whilst allowing others to contribute nothing at all. I had a very strong scum read on Your harry. But a lot of it was based on being scum with Thrawn and Obvious. I think that his case is not the sure thing it once was. I need to reassess so I am just going to lay my thoughts on the table.
I have a town read on Z-boson and Goodkarma. They may be scum and I am less sure on Z-Boson. GK especially seems to have expressed very similar reads to my own, though for slightly different reasons.
I am going to state that I am inclined to believe Obvious and Your Harry because the case on them was mainly associative and alot of the case required Thrawn to be scum. They have also shown an effort in posting and defending themselves and have contributed to the thread. Although their arguments are bad and look scummy/WIFOM based (Harry) this does not mean they are scum. WIth thrawn gone the scum motivation behind their actions becomes unclear, so I am leaning towards them probably being town. It is obvious now that scum are just sitting back letting the active townies argue and kill each other.
Stutters whilst lurking was also in agreement to hold off on the thrawn lynch which was the position of myself and GK when it was not the prevailing sentiment and when it would have been far easier to sit on the bandwagon like others did.
to summarise, currently I view Goodkarma, Z-boson, Stutters, Your Harry and Obvious.660 as probable town from most to least likely
SO I think we need to look closely at the following.
Golbat
Jyhut
Solar Sail
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EBWOP - Spelling
SO I think we need to look closely at the following.
Golbat
Jhuyt
Solar Sail
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Thoughts on Golbat, to pass some time here. Stream of consciousness as I read through his filter.
Regarding his posting bevavior: having been in the same game (XXII) as Golbat that he has referenced where he was lynched D1 as a power role, I can't help but notice that his posting has gone (relatively) from hero to zero. I realize that this is, in part, a tactic through which he is engaging in some self-preservation behavior which isn't totally off the wall crazy. I did similar in my first game and ended up saying a bunch of crap that got me lynched. I think the town needs the old Golbat right now though. Compare this to YourHarry whose posting habits have carried on from game to game. It just seems like you went from one extreme to the other and it honestly doesn't suit us in terms of getting a better read on you, please try to get into the fray today. If you were posting like you did in XXII I would have seen you for town (saying whatever comes to your mind) and it can't really hurt at this stage of the game to pick it up. Even YourHarry has somehow survived this long with his antics, but that's how I know YH. It would do a lot, at least for me, to see you as town if you would be a bit more aggressive and active.
Golbat, you've been on Thrawn's case the entire game. Your first case post against him:
+ Show Spoiler [golbat analysis pt1] +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is.
I particularly like this last part here. It's like you never even went back and revisited the idea after his Vig claim. Even if you didn't trust his Vig claim 100%, doesn't it make sense that he would want to know who other people thought would make for good vig kill targets? It may not have been the best way to go about getting that information, but in the context of his claim it makes sense to come back to it. Alas, Thrawn's claim didn't resonate with you, and I'm somewhat surprised by that given your history in XXII where you too were a Vig and without a clear target. Of course Thrawn did a better job staying alive to execute it, but you were ironically putting him in a similar situation. The over-aggressive Shady Sands was a more overwhelming factor for D1 here, so it's not completely in Thrawn's hands that he made it through the day. In my eyes this is significant evidence that you may not be thinking like us.
You also seem fairly hell-bent on getting YH voted off the island next, so I'm very interested in reading a solid, cohesive case from you on him. Let's say, during the night phase?
Let's see, who else on the list do I feel like reading up on a bit...
Jhuyt... well, let's see here. Just from a cursory glance I see that your D1 vote was a successful mislynch of Shady Sands. You almost had your way with a D2 lynch as well.
+ Show Spoiler [ I spy vintage YourHarry] +On August 20 2012 00:36 Jhuyt wrote:ok, I found something in Harry's filter, it isn't much but I thought it was kind of interesting. Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 12:48 YourHarry wrote:
I will explain later, or maybe it will sort itself out.
FOS Following people still have not posted:
Golbat
Jhuyt
Z-BosoN
Ochrow
In this post he was very clear with whom had not yet posted, so I assume he made the effort to look through the filters and found us. later on he says this: Show nested quote +As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... Here he claims that he did not try to find everybody, so he lied, or forgot about it, I'd say he lied. This is the problem with YourHarry, he makes posts that consist of nothing and he makes claims he immediatly retract. It doesn't matter if you're scum or town, this is just bad play on all parts and super anti-town. For this I'm going to vote for YourHarry ##Vote: YourHarry
One of the quietest players in the game is calling out the some of the loudest players in the game. I'm plainly shocked that 1 page filter guy has lived this long. I guess that's how it works when you vote for the easy targets.
YourHarry... Man you do kinda have my head in a spin here.
You claim that Archrun is setting us up for a dual mislynch:
On August 17 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +Archrun said:
Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect. You guys don't think Archrun is trying to benefit from the mislynch. If Thrawn flips town, he is basically trying to secure the Shady lynch. You may argue that town Archrun actually believes that exactly one of Trhawn or Shady is scum, but I have hard time accepting this because he leaves out one possibility that they are both town.
We get this post that explains your motivations:
On August 17 2012 14:13 YourHarry wrote:
EDBWOP: And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Shady lynch over Thrawn lynch happens.
Well, all three of these guys are dead, and I still think the jury is out on Golbat since he's been scared to post or whatever. Either you told us your scum plan (hardly believable) or you're just one of the many who shared suspicions of these people and are being set up for a mislynch (more believable). Why do I classify these in terms of believability? Because we're in N2 and not a single red flip has happened. Feels like expert scum play in this game, and weak town play (myself included, I know I'm at the bottom of the list when it comes to player skill in this game). Very few people other than me and YH (that I can remember) were really outspoken against people who were not obvious lynch candidates.
End of stream of consciousness for now. Bed time or something like it.
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I'm in general agreement with DarthPunk's list. However, my top three suspect list would look like:
Golbat
Jhuyt
Obvious/Ochrow
I've already expressed my viewpoints on all three of these suspects. Golbat and Jhuyt are quite lurky, and have not been proactive about scumhunting.
Obvious/Ochrow I'm not ready to discount. He hasn't been given much of a chance to establish himself as town, but his predecessor had quite the track record of not sticking his neck out. And so far Obvious is no different. In fact his first reaction to my request to provide some meaningful input on lynch suspects was to OMGUS me, followed by OMGUS-ing the other person who voted him (SolarSail)...
And YourHarry isn't off my scum suspects list, but he isn't in the top three anymore (He'd be like #4). His playstyle is full of inconsistencies, but to his credit he made a legitimate effort to push his scum suspect even when there was a good chance of him being lynched. And he has at least made some effort to explain his behavior to us. His playstyle is so unpredictable it's incredibly hard to get a good read on him... I'm somewhat considering a policy YourHarry lynch Day 1 from now on when he's in the same game. + Show Spoiler +(And the sad thing is I'm not even kidding -_-)
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And a few other quick notes:
-I do feel part (maybe even a very big part) of the Thrawn lynch falls on my shoulders, as I was the one who constructed the "association case" that was a large consideration by some of those who voted for him. But I will say this: I warned everyone several times that you should be voting your strongest read and not be voting by association of unflipped players alone.
-Let's please not make "master lists" of every player and our read on them. Let's stick to top scum suspects please. Comprehensive lists shares all our impressions with scum, and can be easily exploited.
-Tomorrow there will be (barring a lucky save): 5 town, 3 mafia. Therefore, vote consolidation will be imperative to a proper lynch. Assuming no busing, we need at least 4/5 townies to lynch a scum, and only if we get 4 votes first in a tie situation. Needless to say, this will be very difficult without crafting a good strategy going into tomorrow. I'm not sure how we should proceed to ensure we get the votes, and would like to hear others' suggestions on this point.
And now what's going to be my most controversial point, a discussion on lurkers:
-In an ideal world all scum would be loud, and we could read through and easily spot the inconsistencies in their play. But right now, I'm inclined to believe at least one scum is a lurker, so that's going to be the focus of my attention. All current lurkers had better speak up when pressured or I'm voting them. I don't really care at this point if they're town or not + Show Spoiler +(and I know this will be something people might angrily quote as a "scumslip")
If they don't speak up I'm assuming they're scum. If they are town, and they're lynched, then our loss squarely falls on their shoulders. Part of being town is establishing you're town, and if you put no effort whatsoever into doing that you should as well give up on playing this game and find a replacement. Because we can't afford to deal with inactive townies now. We're likely going into MYLO, and everyone has to participate for us to have a chance at winning.
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A much-belated EBWOP:
I'm mostly in agreement with DarthPunk's suspect list, with one notable exception (Obvious/Ochrow).
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On August 20 2012 19:12 goodkarma wrote:
A much-belated EBWOP:
I'm mostly in agreement with DarthPunk's suspect list, with one notable exception (Obvious/Ochrow).
Obvious is actually contributing something though. and is not sheeping cases/lurking. @ everyone. we cannot afford to waste this night cycle. we potentially have 1 more day to nail these scums. I was never much a fan of lurker lynch policy but it is hurting us bad now.
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@Darthpunk:
There is some meaningful discussion posted by Obvious on this page. But one post isn't enough for me to take him off my scum radar.
And as far as lurkers go:
Would you be willing to take the hardline stance of pressuring lurkers? And if they refuse to cooperate, lynching them?
You may not like it. Honestly I don't either. But if you say, "Hey everyone. You should be ashamed of being inactive." There's no personal accountability in that message, and you can expect there will be no meaningful change in activity day 3.
There are several lurkers right now, to the point where I strongly suspect we have inactive lurker scum in this game. The best way to get them, and any potential townie lurkers, active is to pressure them. The easiest way to pressure them is to vote them if they refuse to help us scumhunt.
If you see other options, I'd be happy to hear them.
But how I see it right now, I have no clear scum reads amongst the current active players, and amongst the lurkers is the only spot left to really look.
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On August 20 2012 19:39 goodkarma wrote:
@Darthpunk:
There is some meaningful discussion posted by Obvious on this page. But one post isn't enough for me to take him off my scum radar.
And as far as lurkers go:
Would you be willing to take the hardline stance of pressuring lurkers? And if they refuse to cooperate, lynching them?
You may not like it. Honestly I don't either. But if you say, "Hey everyone. You should be ashamed of being inactive." There's no personal accountability in that message, and you can expect there will be no meaningful change in activity day 3.
There are several lurkers right now, to the point where I strongly suspect we have inactive lurker scum in this game. The best way to get them, and any potential townie lurkers, active is to pressure them. The easiest way to pressure them is to vote them if they refuse to help us scumhunt.
If you see other options, I'd be happy to hear them.
But how I see it right now, I have no clear scum reads amongst the current active players, and amongst the lurkers is the only spot left to really look.
Yeah I was already planning to do something similar. At this point if all the lurkers are town. Then they have handed scum the game regardless.
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I second calling out the lurkers (sheeping Darth). FOS in:
Golbat
Jhyut
Golbat has been active in the beginning of Day 2, votes Thrawn and then disappeared.
Jhyut had be sporadic poster, and is my current top scum suspect. I thought he was something else earlier... I want him to respond to Thrawn's case against him.
@Jhyut, did you read the post where I ask you to read my defense against you carefully?
Solar, has posted little but I don't know if he qualifies as a lurker. I do agree that he should post more.
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EDBWOP: Jhyut has been a sporadic poster
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Can we vote no-lynch or does someone have to die each day?
I'm not advocating a no lynch, just want it clarified before crunch time.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On August 21 2012 06:34 Stutters695 wrote:
Can we vote no-lynch or does someone have to die each day?
I'm not advocating a no lynch, just want it clarified before crunch time.
You can.
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Okay, town. Listen up. In the likely occurance of my death, I have a few things I’d like to share.:
First, the obvious. We pretty much need to establish a majority to lynch a scum today. The only way to really achieve this is with a unified town.
Regarding the Plurality Vote System, a little after the fact:
The plurality vote system was quite deceptive, and I feel I am in part to blame for the indecision we’ve had in establishing clear lynch candidates. Instead of having 3+ candidates we really needed to consolidate into two and treat it like a majority vote system. We’ve allowed scum to hide by more or less giving them a pass to vote whoever they want as long as they can give some wishy-washy reason why. For this reason, don’t expect to spot them from vote history.
But not all hope is lost. I am pretty confident that the following two are scum:
Jhyut:
This guy is clearly a lurker. But take a moment to look at his views.: He clearly is not very interested in scumhunting. He pops up on rare occasion to make +1 comments and reaffirm other people’s cases without adding too much more of his own, with the possible exception of YourHarry who he’s been tunneling now for quite a while.
So his reasoning for lynching YourHarry.:
On August 18 2012 21:11 Jhuyt wrote:When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum. The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression.
I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion.
What really bothers me here is he expresses how he doesn’t even really care how YH flips because removing his “anti-town” behavior would be good for us even if he’s town. And this was the turn where we were confronting the possibility of MYLO… And what does he say of Thrawn, the other major lynch candidate?:
On August 18 2012 21:11 Jhuyt wrote:
When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum.
The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression.
I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion.
Okay so my case makes him suspicious of Thrawn. But later that day:
On August 20 2012 01:04 Jhuyt wrote:
@Thrawn:
Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:20 Jhuyt wrote:The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters.
Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts
Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy
Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts
Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post
Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker. Ok, now I know your motivation for Archrun and reading the post by mkfuba07 I don't think you're as scummy anymore. There went my entire thought process of this day, yippie.The more I think of it the more I find that either Shady or Thrawn is scum. But since my basis of suspicion against Thrawn is basically gone I really can't vote for him. I think this post + Show Spoiler +On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote:Trying to get into school is running me ragged, so this will be my only post for the moment. If anyone has specific questions they'd like me to answer, let me know so I can get to those as soon as possible (preferably before the lynch). Since Thrawn seems to be quite the target, I'm going to post my thoughts on him: 1) The SK posts seemed a bit suspicious, but when I read them I got a rather null read. I was obsing a game recently (my apologies for not knowing the exact game name) where it seemed like the entire first 24 hours was spent discussing what a theoretical Tracker should do if he even existed in the game. Asking a question of the more experienced players regarding SKs, and giving his own point of view, doesn't send off any major alarms in my head. He dropped the issue immediately after people said that they basically agreed with him, and he hasn't personally brought them up ever since. 2) Regarding his actions in the Solar issue, I tended to agree with him along the way. Show nested quote +I'm not sure I'm getting why you think this is scummy, could you explain? His posts since that point are what caused me to be suspicious of him, but I never quite understood the reasoning behind your initial interrogation. This quote appears to summarize his thought process quite nicely, and since it was exactly the same as my thoughts I actually got a slight townie read after it. He was suspicious at the right times, and when something didn't make sense he questioned the reasoning of whoever raised that point. 3) Show nested quote +At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. This quote makes me lean townie as well. Though I have stated that I didn't agree with the original argument behind YH's reads on solar/GK, Thrawn again comes to the same conclusion as me: that the entire case comes down to that single "Sigh..." comment. Though I was (and still am) suspicious of YH after that case, Thrawn's disagreement over this doesn't reveal alignment to me. The way he's thinking things through is very similar to how I did during my only previous vanilla townie game. 4) The whole Z-Boson/Ochrow situation also has me leaning town. During that entire situation, Thrawn makes efforts to alleviate the confusion that's been caused by Z-Boson's misread, when he could have just sat back and let the misunderstanding grow out of control (especially seeing how readily people in this game have been jumping on single posts to make full cases). With this, I have a firm townie read on Thrawn. 5) I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. In short, I truly think that a lynch on Thrawn would be a mislynch. I have some reads on other people that I will try to get up as soon as possible, but I have to leave to take care of school issues right now, and don't want to post half-assed theories without being able to clarify them right away. I will say that I am likely to support a relative lurker lynch, especially given that most of the discussion has been about a player who I've made it clear I have pretty strong town reads on. I have to go for the next couple of hours so I won't be here for the conclusion of the day, see ya later. First he says how he has changed his read on me, and no longer thinks I am as scummy as he thought. Then he presents the idea that "either Shady or Thrawn is scum." He decides to vote for shady, because "Thrawn's reason to accuse Arch is enough for me too consider Shady as scum." I don't think that's a good reason for him to consider shady scum. My being town is not something town players would know, and that was the basis for why I voted on Shady. (in retrospect that was very poor play by me) Jhuyt says that because he believes my reason for accusing Archrun was good so that makes Shady scum, in other words he is saying "I am accepting thrawn's defense of himself therefore shady is scum." I don't think that is a conclusion a town player would or should make. I think a lot of other town players reached that conclusion as well, but after him making the "either thrawn scum of shady scum" suggestion it looks VERY scummy.
Yep, it looks like your explanation of archrun was the only reason why I chose to vote for Shady, but you fail to notice that I thought his behaviour was a way for the mafia to play from what I've seen
On August 15 2012 20:18 Jhuyt wrote:
Hmm, you're right, I should try to be more helpful.
On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there.
On Shady: Shady tries to control the game, which is an act that I don't often see in normal townies, I've most often encountered it when a scum tries to make everybody think he's the sheriff. It is, however, a game of high risk and relies heavily on the actual sheriff being useless. He might be the sheriff as well, and this is why I think the first day is kinda silly, I don't know what to think solely based on his posts, they seem consistent.
I still think that YourHarry is something scummy simply because his posting behavior is strange, on everybody else, I need more evidence before making up my mind.
My case on you were mostly based on the fact that I just couldn't see why you wanted to lynch Arch. When I realised why you did it, I suddenly had two hot candidates, that being you and Shady, and one less hot, being YH. I believed your defense was strong enough for you to go to the second place on my list, and therefore I voted for Shady.
As for the apology, I recognized it as a mistake and apologized for it, even if I didn't explicitly say it was a mistake.
If you are to believe Juhyt here, it actually was Thrawn's views on Archrun he found scummy. Ironically, he just forgets about my case on Thrawn which he had earlier thought was good. This is an obvious scumslip by someone who can’t keep his story straight. A town would never just forget the reasons for voting someone like this. Combined with his semi-lurking, he is my favorite lynch candidate right now. If I survive the night expect him to pretty much instavote him when the day starts. This is a clear scum. There’s no need to hold off the vote on him. If you need something further to make you feel good about voting him, consider Thrawn, who now is 100% town, thought this guy was suspicious enough to vote for.
[b]Golbat:
Honestly, his hardcore lurking for the last 48 hours is a very strong scumtell. Outside of getting hit from a train, there’s no reason that he couldn’t have posted at least a one-liner saying why he’s busy. He really has no excuses at this point. But the benefit of waiting until next vote cycle is we can confirm if he was hit by a train. If he was he’ll be modkilled. Otherwise, he’s scum. He’s been tunneling Thrawn most the game, and hasn’t really discussed much of any kind of read on anyone else. On top of that, add that he clearly doesn’t care about scumhunting in this game. He admits in his own post to not really paying any attention in the first 24 hours of the game, and has mistaken names in at least one post.
Also consider my suspicions a bit of a “meta-read.” While not by any means 100% reliable, Golbat as town showed a zeal for prodding other people in his only other game as town. He did get day one lynched, and I would expect more conservative play from a town Golbat. However, this just is too conservative for a “scared town.” If you are to look at his play, it better fits a first-time scum scared to say too much as he’s afraid of getting caught. Darthpunk, if you live through the night, please share your read here. You’ve seen his play before, and I’d expect you’d see where I’m coming from here…
The Third Scum:
I leave finding the third scum up to you. My strongest third scum read right now is still Ochrow/Obvious. I know some of you disagree, but I’ve already spelled out clearly my reasons why. I leave it to you to pressure him when the time comes. As for other candidates: this late in the game it’s going to be just as important for us to establish amongst ourselves who are town and trustworthy as it is to establish who is scum. I wouldn’t recommend just calling out who is town, as if you’re wrong you’re going to give the last scum a hiding place to hold out until winning the game. Just keep pressuring and trust your reads, and I feel you have a chance to find the third one. Where I’d suggest starting your search: Obvious (Obviously), and YourHarry. I leave the rest to you.
Endgame Strategy:
Okay, so here’s the situation. To get the majority we have to establish a town leader whose candidate we will get our votes behind. There’s no other way to guarantee the 4/5 town votes needed to lynch a scum at this point. Call it sheeping and hate it all you want, but we have to do this. It doesn’t by any means mean you should give up on scumhunting. Still make your cases and share your reads as normal. But come the second 24 hours of the day we all need to consolidate our votes behind said leader.
With my flip, I am 100% confirmed town, so listen up. I have played with DarthPunk before, and I’ve seen his scum play. He has been 10 times more proactive than he was in that game about sharing scum reads and I am convinced he is legitimately searching for scum this time around. Add to that that he’s come independently to similar reads as myself, and I feel he is my strongest town read right now. So all of you get behind him as your leader and consolidate your vote under him. There is a small (note: slim) chance that he’s scum, but you’re going to have to live with that. To have a chance of winning town needs to consolidate its vote and this is the best way to do this. Come the next night, I leave it to Darthpunk to leave his successor in a will similar to this one should he also get NK’ed.
So to sum it up, my recommendations:
-Lynch Jhuyt day 3
-Hope Golbat gets modkilled. If he doesn’t vote Golbat day 4
-Day 5 pressure and vote your best scum read. If it’s still MYLO, no lynch to reach LYLO so you have one less lynch candidate to worry about and can increase your odds of getting the right guy.
And last turn of the game, I’d recommend everyone leaves a last minute will. What you leave in it is up to you. I think maybe everyone even role-claiming might be a good idea as there’d be nothing to lose at that point and it would be extra information to get a read from.
Five minutes to post this now… Forgive the formatting  .
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Forgive the formatting if there's anything unclear I'll explain if I survive the night.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Day 3![[image loading]](http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PsOUCSN0Pxc/T_swHL4fTrI/AAAAAAAAA-o/wJoz0-BEUho/s1600/Gallows.jpg) A cheery scene, I'm sure you'll agree.
That night, while everyone was sleeping, the Bel Montes gathered at their local hideout to discuss their strategy moving forward.
"Everything went better than expected today," said wherebugsgo to his brothers. "Now, who's left that's still a threat to us?"
"sciberbia" said EchelonTee.
"No, no. I think syllogism is much scarier," retorted wherebugsgo.
"No, guys," said marvellosity, raising his voice. "Quit being idiots. I'm the brains of this operation, now just listen to me..."
Plans made, they sneak quietly through the town looking for the right house. Down one little back alley, into another, they finally find it nestled between the local gun shop and a rather famous bakery.
"We better hurry," said EchelonTee. "Old Man Caller will be up soon to start cooking for tomorrow."
Adrenaline pumping through their veins, they quickly pick the lock and enter the house. wherebugsgo pulls out a lantern, lights it, and then shutters it a bit so as to not attract any undue attention. They begin making their way through the house.
"This room is clear," whispers marvellosity.
"This one too."
After a few minutes, there's only one large room left.
"We've got him now, boys. Remember the plan. Now get to work."
As the sun crept over the horizon, and the residents of Liquidia begin to rouse, a piercing scream shatters the serenity.
Everyone runs out to see what's going on, and it doesn't take long before they find the cause of the commotion.
A lone, lifeless body hangs from the gallows. The words Bel Monte had been gruesomely seared on the flesh of his naked body.
Jhuyt, as BlazingHand the Vanilla Townie, has been killed!
Day 3 has started. You have 48 hours to vote! Remember all names used are just flavour.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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EPT
