Part I: the usual suspects
1. Willz
+ Show Spoiler +I would have been one of the first to say Willz is probably town, if BroodKing had flipped scum. Unfortunately, BroodKing being town makes this a helluva lot more complicated. His case on BroodKing didn't convince me yesterday, but I was tipsy and in a rush. ArcticFox and KB poked holes in it pretty effectively, so we don't have to rehash that. The question is: was it just a bad case by town, or a ploy by mafia to get his head out of a noose? When I left yesterday evening I was left yesterday evening I was quite liking Willz's defense. He was calm and answered people's points. He even adopted an unusual defense to my case, which was: he's right, I apologise and intend to improve. Which is something I don't think scum would dare to do. Also, this sounds very sincere: + Show Spoiler [Willz' defense] +On April 14 2012 03:16 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 03:06 KharadBanar wrote:On April 14 2012 02:55 willz22912 wrote:
@ KharadBanar
You're really going to assume that this is a giant ploy by Mafia to bus me so Dittert gains credibility? I find that to be totally without basis and completely WIFOM on what Mafia would do. Fine, don't exclude it from your thinking, but do you really honestly believe that is the most likely scenario here? What about that we're both town and it's a mis-lynch, that is not likely at all to you? Why are you associating that Dittert and I are both Mafia in your minds so strongly? You've posted in the past about your suspicions about Dittert, but this is the first time you've linked us together as the Mafia team, and that logic is absurd and full of WIFOM.
Also, you post holes in my case about BroodKingEXE but you seem to gloss over the correlation between 8. and 9. So you're willing to let him slide for admitting that he saw nothing suspicious or wrong about anything else, but when Acrofales makes his case, he's allowed to go from 0 suspicion to voting me? So again, BroodKingEXE is not willing to make his own case, but he will eagerly follow anothers lead? Does this not strike you as scummy?
You also think the Acrofales case on me is the key point in my demise, okay, I will go write a rebuttal to that now. About the bus: I don't have 100% scum reads on both you and Dittert. The fact that you're my strongest reads doesn't mean there is not actually a higher possibility of only one of you being scum, where this isn't a bus but either a scum member accusing a townie or a townie being right in his speculation. I just see a high possibility of there being a scum between the two of you. If you manage to explain your motivations behind the things Acrofales pointed out about you, I'd probably be willing to take my vote off you, because yomi and HiroPro then seem more scummy to me at this point, so please go ahead. Can you be more specific about what you want me to explain? Acrofales case is really long and I don't know what exactly you're looking for. I'd like to be as transparent as I can even if I still die, because I know this will help town. Please respond with what you wish to know and I will answer as best I can. I can already say that I have not played nearly as well as I thought, and I agree with my hypocrisy in calling for transparency yet holding onto my own opinions. Other than that part of his post, I was overly defensive against Dittert because he wouldn't leave me alone, that got me angry and asking him why he keeps insisting that I'm Mafia without reinforcing his case when I asked him what I have done to draw his suspicions. Wouldn't you be annoyed at someone if they were saying you were calling for their mis-lynch when I did nothing of the sort, and that was the basis of his original argument and the one he just used? That is a flat out lie, yet he seems to not realize it himself, then he goes on about how his RL is important and he has no time to play this game as much as others. Fine, RL obviously takes precedence, but that means in his limited time playing Mafia, he won't switch off accusing me constantly, he won't look at anyone else, but I can't call him out on it because he doesn't have enough time, that's part of why I was angry as well. However, his play rapidly deteriorated into martyring himself (not a tell, just unpleasant). He claims he continued to provide town with all the reads he had, but that was not much. The vague suspicion of KB in his BroodKing case. Other than that: + Show Spoiler [Willz' reads at the end of D1] +On April 14 2012 02:33 willz22912 wrote:Xatalos, you may agree with the case against me, but please correct this statement here: Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, I looked at Willz's filter and I agree something is off about him. It's weird, because initially he was my strongest town read (replaced by you later), but his later posts have been more and more suspicious. ArcticFox and imallinson addressed my cases against them by calmly finding the holes in my logic, but Willz didn't actually respond to Dittert's (somewhat weak) accusations - instead he chose to start an OMGUS war against Dittert ("why do you want to lynch me, I didn't want to lynch you before, but now I do, because you want to lynch me!"). He has also been saying everyone should be transparent, but he himself has been the opposite of transparent. Why would a townie indeed want to hide his opinions so much?
I still don't want to lynch Dittert, I still believe he is a newbie town and he will be very chagrined by the alignment I flip. I did not really start the OMGUS war, because I see that the original basis for Dittert's case against me was that he thought I was trying to start a mis-lynch on him because of his rng-proposal. Technically, he has started the OMGUS war all along. I only got angry about it, which has led to my downfall. You even state here that it's (somewhat weak) accusations. I did try to address them, but it was mostly about specific posts I made (out of many) that he found suspicious. He never made a solid case against me, I just wanted him to stop. If you are willing to lynch me because I became overly defensive when it came to a first time forum player continuing to attack me with what everyone agrees is poor logic, that's fine, but realize that I still don't think that Dittert is Mafia, and when I flip, please don't lynch him first, go after the others on my bandwagon. Summary: Dittert is town. On April 14 2012 02:39 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 02:19 imallinson wrote:On April 14 2012 02:11 willz22912 wrote:
I called out imallinson because he was so quick to drop his stances on everything with a "good argument" and that Xatalos was letting him latch onto his case against ArcticFox without any questioning. HiroPro has also not contributed nearly as much as he could have.
I dropped my stance on Arctic after he and other people had poked holes in Xatalos' argument, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Then I made a case against trumpetarn and have stuck with it when bandwaggoning you would have been the easiest thing in the world. I'm not entirely sure why you think I am so quick to drop my stances (especially confused about the plurality there I have only changed my vote once and that was due to a reasoned counter-argument). I appreciate that you haven't jumped on my bandwagon as well, but that doesn't mean you're not one of the three. There's already enough votes on me to pretty much guarantee it, it would draw too much suspicion everyone voted me. You may indeed be town after all, I'm only trying to be transparent until I die, it's better that I post what I think of you than for town to not know. It may help them in the end. I think your case against Trumperarn has some merit because of how much he has lurked, but he also seems like a very newbie town in his first game, so I really don't know what to make of him really since he hasn't posted anything about me anyway. I would lean towards newbie town, but I have given that excuse to Dittert and Yomi so far, and look where that has gotten me =/ Summary: trumpetarn is a noobie town lurker On April 14 2012 03:39 willz22912 wrote:
That's up to KharadBanar, vonKlaust, and Xatalos.
I'm obviously going to be willing to stay alive, but who could I support to lynch in my place without looking desperate?
The two votes not in yet are the lurkers.
ArcticFox thinks Yomi is still Mafia, I personally disagree with this, I won't support that lynch.
imallinson, you think trumpetarn is a valid lynch, I think he's a newb town still, but he is also the most inactive and lurker of us all and hardly a benefit to town. I would be willing to switch my vote to him, but that still wouldn't get him lynched over me, and would reek of desperation.
No I'm content with my fate, just going to try and be as useful to town as I can and then hopefully see you guys win in the end. Summary: yomi is town. On April 14 2012 04:03 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 03:43 BroodKingEXE wrote:
@dittert Even if you are dead, a townie would look for scum. If you really are a townie build a case against someone else. You've been asking questions all game, why not use the errors you found when you asked those to guide your suspicions. Would building a case against someone else convince you to not vote me? Then why should I bother building another case when I believe you're really Mafia? I've already stated my suspicions are on HiroPro (mostly for lurking), imallinson (for readily following Xatalos, although he has rebutted this, and I'm not so sure of this) and KharadBanar, who I feel is under-performing considering how he played in Newbie VI. His explanation for this is that he needs time to ramp up and his D1 isn't very good. Yomi: I feel he was overly defensive, a trait that newbie town usually display (he also posted this was his first game as well) He thinks Dittert is still Mafia, which I don't agree with, but that doesn't make him Mafia in my eyes. Still newbie town to me. Dittert: I feel he is going to be unhappy with himself when I flip green, but hopefully the town won't lynch him in response. He tunneled me and he played poorly as town, but that still means he's town in my mind. Xatalos: I feel the most town vibe from him for his willingness to at least start discussion with his case on ArcticFox, but he needs to step up his game since he has experience from GoT Acrofales: Also played in GoT Mafia, probably one of the more experienced newbs, have a good town vibe about him, his case against me is not without cause, and has good logic in it. I cannot blame him for reaching his conclusions because it was my own mistakes he pointed out. vonKlaust: Newbie town, pretty indecisive but without malicious intent, needs to be more assertive and stand by his opinions. Probably town in my eyes. Trumpetarn: Lurking the most out of anyone, probably newbie town with the way he entered the conversation and how he presented himself. Anything else I need to post? A list. Not a bad list, but it mostly summarises older points. I like this post. His reads are pretty light. His scumreads are BroodKing, based on the case he had earlier. KB, although I cannot really get a clue on why exactly (underperformance compared to newbie VI?). HiroPro, for lurking and Imallison for sheeping Xatalos. While I sympathise, because if you don't have good reads, you cannot suddenly post them when under pressure, I am also not particularly convinced he is really trying to get his reads out there. That is so far my largest criticism of him. As scum you know exactly who is townie and want to cast suspicion on them. The question is therefore how sincere is Willz in these posts? The second problem I have is his really butthurt behaviour when he is about to get lynched. He tries (and fails) to play the sympathy card. Particularly I hate the wifom he (intentionally or unintentionally?) creates by voting for himself and only switching to Yomi afterwards. It just plays into Xatalos' already wifomy wifom about the Willz-Yomi connection, which I REALLY don't see (this post was written before I asked for a better explanation in the thread). Post-lynch: On April 14 2012 08:55 willz22912 wrote:
Still this leaves me with a shitty situation. I have little to no credibility (I made town wait around for so long for a bad case against a bad townie in the end) Credibility is earned.
As to my play, I will try and step it up and be more transparent from now on, I promise. If I don't feel free to lynch me, but at this point I have to do a major rethinking of everything. I was expecting to be the lynch target on D1, and now I find myself alive but my proposed target dead in my place (and a town to boot). I won't be around for much of this night, I will be busy hanging out with family, I might be home in time for the N1 rollover, but that's not a guarantee.
I'm also going to try to tone down my post count as well, I can easily see that I have the largest filter, but it's mostly full of fluff at this point. Being active is good, spamming the thread as I have been doing is bad. This is not an excuse for me to lurk, I'm merely saying I will be posting less (and hopefully better) responses. Thanks for keeping me alive town, I'll do my best to earn this second chance.
You had better. I like his other two night posts, but not enough to budge me much. Yet, it is what judges call reasonable doubt.
Verdict: suspicious. At the moment more a source of wifom and confusion. I hope someone DT checked him and this can be resolved. DO NOT CLAIM DT. FIND OTHER WAYS TO GET YOUR INFO OUT THERE. Too much doubt for a D2 lynch. He seems like a decent player, so should give better reads with time. If scum, his buddies will out him.
2. Dittert
+ Show Spoiler +Yesterday I was unsure about his scummyness. His case on willz was shoddy, but at least it was a case. See here what I thought of Dittert. Since then he has posted a grand total of 1 post and boy, is it shitty. I am not quite sure whether it is scum shitty or just plain shitty, but I agree with everybody who has posted about it so far that he cannot play the noob card and then yell at town for getting it wrong. Something is off here and if he doesn't want my vote tomorrow, he had better start playing properly. If he was so convinced brood was town, why didn't he push his case? In fact, why is his filter so goddamn empty in any case if that's the kind of anger he vents at town getting it wrong. Also, there's Ver (I think) saying that the people who shit all over town in a mislynch are usually scum. No clue how true that is, but it stuck with me.
Verdict: scum. Good lynch target D2.
3. Yomi
+ Show Spoiler +Yesterday's *other* lynch target. My main problem with Yomi is his utter non-contribution to the thread. He has posted quite a lot. However, ALL his posts are about himself (and Xatalos). Stop talking about yourself and start talking about who's suspicious. All I have gotten is that you don't like Dittert and you think willz is *probably* town. That is really really REALLY useless for a 3-page filter. Let me put it differently: the more you fixate on defending yourself with waffle aimed at Xatalos, rather than with actively contributing to scumhunting the more I think you're scum. Your entire filter is filler and/or repeating the same old crap with Xatalos. STOP ITNo. This throwaway list does not count as scumhunting: On April 14 2012 06:43 yomi wrote:Ok. I think you have poor reasoning skills and have never posted an actual "case" per say against me and neither has anyone else. This is your case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=20#395I find this post comical at best and already debunked it. I am an abrasive person and now I am dead. I don't know what you guys consider "helpful" but I guess I haven't done it. I think most of the posts in this thread are ridiculous at best and wildly speculative. I won't post anything speculative because I don't think more posting is automatically good and I only want to post things I'm at least somewhat sure of. I think more posting is actually bad and people should try to stay as concise as possible and post a lot less frequently or you guys are going to overwhelm yourselves with spam. I know I already can barely follow the thread. ~20 pages based on no actual information. I find this game bizarre. I think the following players are suspicious: xatalos - because his reasoning is frequently ridiculous. too dumb to believe (see dittert) hiropro - not posting dittert - can't believe the noob town act anymore. brood: this is his "case" against willz http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=18#349seriously? that passes for an argument now? I think the following players are town: willz honestly not sure of anyone else at this point well that's everything on my mind. I'm prob dead no matter what. gg. Summary: Xatalos because OMGUS, hiropro and dittert for the usual reasons. Brood because of crappy logic. /facepalm. He posted quite a bit at night too. Changing from defending Xatalos' tunneling to tunneling himself on Xatalos. BOTH OF YOU STOP ITYomi, I think your contributions so far have been non-existent. If you're town, stop tunneling on Xatalos and prove your worth. If you're scum, go ahead with shitting up the thread, you'll be lynched soon enough.
Verdict: scum. Not red, because I don't like him for scum as much as dittert. It is plausible he's just a really dumb townie tunneling on Xatalos.
Part II: goodfellas
1. Imallison
+ Show Spoiler +I have a problem reading Imallison. The reason is that it seems like he's contributing, but upon a closer look it seems that he's not. And then, if you look really closely, his posts have a point. I am not sure whether this is because he is unable to express himself concisely, or because he is willfully obfuscating his reads in a fat load of waffle. Some posts I don't like: On April 13 2012 19:28 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 15:40 Xatalos wrote:imallinson, I noticed a couple of suspicious things about your filter. First of all, this: On April 13 2012 04:18 imallinson wrote:
I never thought you were mafia and wasn't trying to label you as such. I was just pointing out that what you had said about me wasn't quite accurate. Also this was before you had posted your suspicions on Arctic. You posting those suspicions definitely reinforced you as being probably town in my head. This post is an almost complete lie. If you look at my filter, I made my case against ArcticFox FIRST and only noticed your (suspicious) post after that. So your reasoning for first saying I'm Mafia and then backing off is extremely questionable, based on this post at least. And you say you never suspected me to begin with? Then what was this post all about: On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos
I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself. What is that if not accusing me of a Mafia slip? You never said directly I was Mafia, but looking at this sentence, I can see no reason to post it unless you thought I was Mafia. So why did you say later on that you never thought I was suspicious at all? it's not accusing you of a mafia slip at all at the time you were throwing accusations around like crazy, this was about 12 -14 hours in mind you, I was merely suggesting you maybe should calm down and think more logically that saying 4 or 5 people seem scummy with no evidence to back it up. town can make slip ups as well. Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 15:40 Xatalos wrote:
Other potentially suspicious bits from your filter:
- Your first post is very vague and hesitant, typical for a Mafia first post.
- Your two Mafia reads so far have been ArcticFox (easy to jump on after me) and trumpetarn (a hardcore lurker who wouldn't defend himself). If Acrofales had flipped town, you could have just put the blame on me instead of yourself. Going after trumpetarn is very easy and harmless for you, because even if he flips town, nobody will blame you for being suspicious of an anti-town lurker.
- Your sudden vote list is a "classic" Mafia tactic to appear useful without actually being useful. It's not really a reason to lynch you, but also considering the other stuff, it all adds up.
- Over half the people here had hesitant first posts. - I picked trumpetarm at random out of the people who were lurking to make a case either way on because Willz suggested I make a case on someone who wasn't in the spotlight to put my own opinions out there. I'm not sure what Acrofales getting lynched has to do with anything no one has really suggested he might be scum. And ArcticFox was me agreeing with your case. If people agreeing with you makes them scummy I don't know what to say. - The vote list was because Willz had just asked if we could have a separate vote thread because it was hard to figure out where the votes were. I don't see how that is in anyway scummy. I really don't like his answer to why he made his case on trumpetarm. My interpretation of this is: willz thought I was scummy and asked me to post, so I will pick a random lurker and accuse him of being scum. There is no conviction here. Why trumpetarm rather than hiro, yomi or dittert? You made a case (fine), and in this post rather than defending your case you admit that your case was actually just a screen to hide behind. That is very scummy. On April 14 2012 06:55 imallinson wrote:I was just about to say yomi looks the scummiest here and then we get this corker from BroodKing Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote:
This vote is way to close I am going to vote for Yomi to make sure Mafia don't get the initiative to switch.
This makes some sense but I have a feeling scum wouldn't try to save a fellow scum now it would look way too obvious given the current discussion. Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote:
I have already put some thoughts down, but his recent posts haven't helped his case. He talks about how he has been flaming, and that he is going to get more information. The problem with this is that its roughly 1.5 hours to vote, any information he brings foward won't be able to analyzed properly and the voting will turn to chaos.
This is kind of true, yomi really hasn't made himself look good, but voting for someone because they can no longer save themselves is dumb and pointless. Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Although I think willz is more likely scum.
##Unvote
##Vote: Yomi
What ... This makes no sense what so ever. Why would you vote for someone if you didn't think they were scum. This whole post reeks of scum realising their ally is about to get lynched and trying to get some town cred from bandwaggoning on him. I still think yomi is pretty scummy at the moment but BroodKing definitely looks worse now. ##Unvote
##Vote: BroodKingEXE This was basically the only post that stood out to me of the people who voteswitched to BroodKing. My problem is how he misrepresents BroodKing. I have made the misrepresentation red. The rest is wifom. How do you know what scum would do at the last minute? Why did you wifom brood's reason for voting? For all we know they were both scum and you are their scumbuddy helluva relieved that you now have a reason not to bus your buddy? We don't, wifom is bad. Misrepresentation is a trick I liked to use in GoT mafia: take someone's words and give them a slight twist: make them look terrible. For icing on the cake add some plausible reason for why they did that. Recipe for a scum-made case. That is the recipe I see being followed here too. The problem is with the timing. This is a lot of effort to go to when the BroodKing bandwagon is already going. It could also be a townie learning from his mistakes and dreaming up a justification for his vote (in a bit of a rush), rather than bandwagoning brood without a valid reason. However, this leads to wifom: it could be mafia cleverly covering his tracks and securing the lynch. It could just be that imallison is a slow typer and was making the case before the bandwagon truly got going. So lets ignore this argument and just stick to: misrepresenting other people is scummyRedemption+ Show Spoiler +On April 14 2012 15:26 imallinson wrote:Well now the BroodKing thing has settled into my head a bit more I will post my thoughts on the current situation. Honestly this lynch sucks if we had lynched either Willz or yomi we would have got info from it, lynching Brood and him turning town. I'm not entirely sure about Willz's idea about all the scum voting for Brood because absolutely everyone who was here in the hour before voting pretty much instantly switched to Brood. Also it's perfectly possible a scum member wasn't here near the end or was lurking super hard and didn't feel the need to come out of the shadows because the Brood lynch was obviously going through. Now my thoughts on some of our other townsmembers. Dittert: After his last post I'm really not convinced about the dumb town thing any more. Someone who isn't confident about their ability doesn't chastise people and call them idiots. Show nested quote +All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I will admit there have been some fairly weak arguments (yomi, Xatalos and myself have all been guilty of this although Dittert is as well) however it's day 1 in a newbie game we probably aren't going to be seeing any Holmes-esque deductions yet. Show nested quote +For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit"). I think ArcticFox said it best here "That was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen." He's right it was a dumb slip by Brood whether he is town or scum. Looking back at it it's easy to say it was a stupid thing to go for. Show nested quote +What irks me is that before I left, we had a pretty good case going against willz and a general ##FoS pointed at yomi. Once willz started posting more, everyone seemed to think that he must be town (why does posting more mean you're town, especially when posts with any kind of substance whatsoever came after Acro and myself built a strong case against him). It's not just because he started posting more. He actually put up some sort of defence (in between the moping), then yomi started looking more suspicious so the vote started to move to him, finally Brood posted his dumb slip and the vote moved to him. This all makes sense from a town perspective, everyone voted for who they thought was most suspicious at the time. Show nested quote +Okay, so if you're convinced willz is town, why not vote for yomi? Yomi didn't even really have a defense, and I don't understand why everyone switched off of him. People did vote for yomi and I don't think anyone has switched off of him. He is certainly high on my list of suspicious people (more on that later). Show nested quote +Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)? A lot of this has been said before in the cases against Willz and yomi. This reeks of trying to be helpful while not actually contributing. Show nested quote +And for everyone who consistently says that my logic is dumb, my posts are bad, and my reads are wrong, my only read on brood was that he was a townie doing dumb stuff. Looks like I'm 1 for 1, or 2 for 2 if you count the townie part and the dumb stuff (like making a "scumslip" at the last minute) as 2 separate things. This read of yours is both well before he slipped up and after he flipped town. You didn't have much reason to suspect him in the former and have hindsight in the later. You seem to be using the fact you weren't here when the vote flipped to Brood to show you as innocent which I'm not buying. It's easy to say a vote was stupid after it has happened if you had responded as such while it was happening I might take your accusations a bit more seriously. That whole post seems scummy to me ##FoS: Dittertyomi: I'm really not sure about you at the moment. There have been decent arguments against you you never properly responded to but your posting is so erratic and nonsensical that I think you might just be a really bad town player. I would think scum would be more careful and considered in their posting. That being said you are playing so badly currently I'm thinking you wouldn't be a terrible lynch / vig shot. I would really like to get some calmer some reasoned stuff from you. Xatalos: The one good point, although not conveyed well, that yomi made is about you Xatalos. You have actually been suspicious of, to various degrees, or have voted against everyone except yourself and trumpetarn who barely counts because he stopped posting midway through day 1. I can't see a reason why any town would be so suspicious of everyone around him. I understand being wary and throwing a few accusations around but you have taken it to an extreme. I'm not sure whether you are town or scum but I really would like to know why you are so suspicious of everybody. Willz: Everyone seemed to let you off the hook somewhat after yomi became suspect #1 and I will admit you were definitely helpful in what you thought were your death throes posting your reads on others but the mopyness and self voting really helps only the scum. I don't know whether you are town or scum at the moment but you need to cut that shit out. I'll just post short thoughts on everyone else as I don't have mountains to say about them. vonKlaus: You strike me as fairly town. You have defended your self well and haven't been afraid to makes cases. ArcticFox: Again you seem town for the same reasons as vonKlaus. Acrofales: You are probably my strongest town read. You made an excellent well reasoned case against Willz. KharadBanar: Your posting can be a bit sporadic but is helpful when it exists. I hope to see you really shine now we are past day 1. HiroPro: I don't know what to say about you, you barely post. You also seem to flop about a fair bit with your voting mainly following other people. I really like this post. I don't really see a reason for mafia to make this post when it was made. It gives a good evaluation of the game so far and I agree with most of his reads. The rest of his posting in the night has also been good.
Verdict: probably town. Want to see him live long enough to make more posts like his night posts.
2. Hiropro
+ Show Spoiler +
His posts are making some effort to be useful.
Verdict: noob town (same as yesterday, but slightly stronger)
3. Xatalos
+ Show Spoiler +Yeah. I'm surprised to find Xata in this list too. I was pretty convinced he was town yesterday. His filter is by far the hardest to decipher, so bear with me. 1. His filter is gigantic 2. He waffles alot Yesterday I made the effort to sift through the waffle and see if it was just his playstyle that makes him waffle, or whether he is trying to shit up the thread. I concluded that it's his playstyle from the following posts. + Show Spoiler [Xatalos' bumblingly townie posts] +On April 12 2012 23:45 Xatalos wrote:
yomi, Dittert and HiroPro: your contributions so far are non-existent. ArcticFox posted something useful at last, so I'm almost willing to vote for someone else in his place, but you three need to post something before I can get a clear town/Mafia read on you. For the time being, I'm going to keep my vote on ArcticFox, since he's the only one I can make a strong case against at the moment. But you three are next in the line unless you convince me otherwise. Calls out players. Keeps his vote on his strongest read. On April 13 2012 03:52 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 03:41 imallinson wrote:
EBWOP: I think I've said all I want on Arctic at the moment. He definitely has gone some way to alleviating my suspicions of him. I'm going to read through some of the more lurky players filters to see if there is anything suspicious there beyond them not posting. Hmm.. I'll definitely want to hear your opinions on other players than ArcticFox or Dittert. Willz was right in that you didn't really push anything of your own, but rather followed behind. That doesn't look good in my eyes. Also, I wonder about your fast change of heart earlier - your first reaction was to label me as a possible Mafia for suspecting you (OMGUS reaction) and right after that you started agreeing with me on everything. How does that work? Reads willz' case and keeps an eye on imallison. Calls out his possibly suspect behaviour. On April 13 2012 20:54 Xatalos wrote:
imallinson, I like your answer. Your calm counter-arguments make sense from a townie perspective. However, you should at least post some more. You have been pretty silent and Mafia are usually in the category between lurkers and active posters, where you fit perfectly at the moment. Post more and your townieness will become more clear. (btw there was a typo in my case, I meant ArcticFox, not Acrofales)
Acrofales, your case against Willz seems good on the surface, but I'm not sure about him. I'd want to at least see his upcoming "big contribution" before voting. However, I will look through his filter once I get home and see if I agree with you.
More than Willz I would want to lynch Yomi right now. But he also claimed he wants to contribute closer to the deadline... Hmm, I don't like this delaying of contribution Willz and Yomi are doing. I'll reconsider my vote a bit later when I can read the filters in peace. Calm and collected. However, I kept my suspicions. Some posts I just really don't like. I also have the feeling that he might just be throwing suspicion around and seeing where it'll stick. He tried ArcticFox, it failed. He tried imallison, vonKlaust and finally yomi. This is, once again, pretty easy as mafia: you already know who's town. Look through their filter and make up a case. The problem with labeling this as scummy is that it is also a sign of overeager town. I kept my opinion in reserve. Tonight, however, I REALLY don't like his posts. He keeps on waffling on about his meta in GoT as if we should care to compare his play then with person X now. I was scum with him in GoT and his playstyle was different: more lurky, more searching for compromises. However, the whole point of being a noob is to learn and improve. The meta argument is more a minor irritation. The main things I really haven't liked in Xatalos' play: 1. Excessive tunneling, despite being told (and acknowledging) that it serves no purpose except to shit up the thread. + Show Spoiler [Tunneling] +On April 14 2012 01:09 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 23:52 vonKlaust wrote:@Xatalos I said you were my prime suspect, but I was and am far from sure that you are mafia. I don't agree with that I have had a persistant focus on you. I still maintain the stance that you could be mafia and I think that the chances for you being mafia is higher than others in the thread, but for now I think that Willz and Hiro are far safer bets. This is what I wrote about you when asked to pick top scum candidate: I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it. This is my reasoning for writing that: + Show Spoiler +On April 13 2012 04:06 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 03:43 Xatalos wrote:
He didn't only agree with me, he posted some additional potentially suspicious quotes from ArcticFox. That's why I didn't focus on him at that point... Mafia usually jump in sheepishly to vote once a very easy lynch target has been found, not as early as he did. Still, he hasn't done much else for this thread, and I'm watching him closely.
That's the risk I'll have to take. However, nobody was really pressuring anyone when I woke up and read the thread, so I figured I had to make the first move. There's no certainty that ArcticFox is Mafia, but given the information I have, I don't mind lynching him at the moment. This is fallacious. Of course it's better for the crooks to try to put forward some solid evidence together with joining a lynch than to just, as you put it, sheepishly vote once a very easy target has been found. Not only does it make the chances of the target actually getting lynched, but it also makes them look towny. I can accept that you would rather focus at ArticFox, but this explanation is NOT sufficient for dropping your suspicions on Iamallison To me this looks like a potential scum slip. On April 13 2012 04:46 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote:
I agree with you that the response from ArcticFox was good. It still doesn't mean he is town. You, like Willz, fail to see that metagame was only the starting point of my case, not the "meat" of it. The major part of my case was his flow of useless posts about policies and blues, neither related to Mafia-hunt but easy to talk about for Mafia (without giving town any new information). However, by no means is ArcticFox a "must-lynch" for me - just that he is my preference at the moment.
Also, you have to admit my case on ArcticFox has generated a lot of useful discussion and possible Mafia slips (we can't know them all yet, as some of them will become more clear once some player's alignments are revealed). I'm all for pushing another lynch target, since everyone voting for ArcticFox would make it too easy for Mafia to blend in. Seeing players' reactions to different lynch pushes will be very helpful. I went back to research Xatalos filter after this incident: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14321137 And found this piece of text. This strikes me as pretty awkward. Not only is he trying to justify his case by saying that it generated discussion, but he also proposes to push another lynch target, not because he thinks that ArticFox is a bad lynch, but because "It would make it too easy for Mafia to blend in". Of course pushing for lynches generates discussion, but that does not justify pushing bad lynches. Of course you can use votes to pressure, but your vote against ArticFox don't really come across as a pressure vote to me. Also it feels a bit wierd that you seem so decisive while still saying stuff like "By no means is ArticFox a must-lynch for me" and "I'm all for pushing another lynch target". Especially when you earlier in the game wrote stuff like: Show nested quote +There's only so much you can do 7 hours into the game, but what I've got from these posts has been VERY useful + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14315170 Show nested quote +I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14315248 It feels like you're trying to get out of the lynch-train you created in the first place, while still maintaining ArticFox as a prime suspect. As far as I can tell, you didn't really ever back down from your claims. You just went defensive when people started to criticize your case. Hmm. You actually HAD some sort of a case against me. Your remarks are just so vague and uncertain that I haven't taken your observations seriously enough. I didn't say, at any point, that I had a town read on imallinson... I just said my suspicions of him "dropped a bit" after he made some valid additional points about ArcticFox and voted for him. I didn't think Mafia would so eagerly jump on the first possibility of a bandwagon - from what I've seen, Mafia usually wait until lynching someone gathers strong enough support and then blend in with the mass of voters. I'm not saying Mafia have to play passive and/or leave the initiative for town, but imallinson's fast agreement with my vote didn't seem very Mafia-like to me (too reckless and careless - generally Mafia are cautious and avoid the spotlight). I agree that I was too convinced by my own case, and I should have shifted my attention away from ArcticFox sooner. I think a reason for that might be that in my previous game (AGOT) there was a pretty aggressive town player named Mattchew, who found out 75% (3/4) of the Mafia team in a matter of hours, but he had too little faith in himself and followed the general opinion instead of his own opinion. If he had pushed even one of us during the first day, he might have won the game for town. I think that's the main reason why I didn't want to give up on my case on ArcticFox so fast, but in the end, it's not useful to tunnel so hard on one person if the general opinion has already shifted against my case. I don't consider ArcticFox a good lynch anymore even myself. By the way, I would be much more suspicious of YOU jumping for the ArcticFox bandwagon than imallinson. imallinson at least added content to my case and was pretty open and fearless about his support for my case. You, on the other hand, tried your very best to avoid responsibility. You said just that it "carried some truth" without adding anything of your own to it (other than your hesitant support for the case). Care to explain this? So here you admit you tunneled a bit on ArcticFox (I kinda disagree, that was probably healthy pressure). Yet a day later we get this from you: On April 14 2012 05:55 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 05:53 yomi wrote:
Can't believe it has come to this but I have to protect myself
I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie.
##unvote: dittert
##vote: willz22912
I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro Why so scared? If you are town, you should post and convince us you are innocent. Instead you try to protect your hide by sacrificing your "most townie read" even BEFORE you are set to be lynched. This makes me even more suspicious of you, which is quite an achievement. I can't see a motivation for town to do this. This is not a scumtell. It's 1 hour before the deadline and he doesn't want to die. It's a scaredy-cat tell. What I am getting from you is confirmation bias. The rest of the day and most of the night is filled with a back and forth with Yomi which serves no real purpose. 2. Meaningless wifom about all kinds of stuff: bluefishing, + Show Spoiler [Wifom] +On April 12 2012 17:14 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos
I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself. Nevertheless, you were THINKING about blue tells as you considered lynching lurkers = possibly killing blues. It's not a reason enough to lynch you yet, but if I had to choose between you or anyone else outside of ArcticFox, Dittert and yomi, I would choose to vote for you. And you seem to forget that blue players very rarely are lurkers: mostly they try to act like vanilla townies and be at least somewhat active. Being a lurker or semi-lurker means a higher chance of Mafia, since it's against Mafia's win condition to contribute. Besides, I found your hesitation and wishy-washiness more condemning than your comment about lurkers = blues. On April 14 2012 04:49 Xatalos wrote:
Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case):
- Willz is town
- yomi is Mafia
Here are the possible outcomes:
A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not.
B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow. This may be trying to help. However, HOW DOES THIS MAKE ANY SENSE AT ALL? Why does yomi flipping mafia say willz is town? I haven't seen willz make much of a case against yomi. Atm I am willing to believe you might be town if yomi is scum, but how does it have anything at all to do with ArcticFox? Why are you pulling random names out of a hat? Even you is doubtful: two recent examples are Gumshoe vs. me in GoT mafia and VE vs. Toad in LI. Tunneling on a fellow mobster is high risk, but also high reward. On April 14 2012 07:08 Xatalos wrote:
I did the same when I was Mafia last game. I kept gumshoe as my top Mafia read while nobody else suspected him. It worked well for me there. chaoser also made his first vote for Acrofales, a Mafia teammate. That argument is just WIFOM, there's no way what you might think of as Mafia. Zzzzz more GoT meta blabla wifom On April 15 2012 01:37 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 01:21 Acrofales wrote:
Once again. Stop assuming that claiming a vigi shot is a good way for a vigi to get town credit. Mafia can use this easily to gain town credit too (at the very least until N2, when kill flavours may not line up). I don't think Mafia would be up for such a huge risk. Imagine this: player A (Mafia) claims he is a Vigilante and that he shot yomi (based on my suggestion). However, the real Vigilante decided to shoot somebody else after all. Player B (Vigilante) shot player C, and everyone sees now that player A was lying - even if it were possible for there to be two Vigilantes (which I find very unlikely) everyone would know that player A is Mafia pretending to be Vigilante. 3. Filler posts telling everybody how to play. A few is fine. Xatalos has half a page of them. + Show Spoiler [lectures] +On April 12 2012 17:18 Xatalos wrote:
Of course we can't expect everyone to play logically, but if you're a townie, you SHOULD contribute and be active, and if you're Mafia, you SHOULD be silent or disruptive. So lurking is definitely not equal to how a townie SHOULD play. On April 12 2012 18:58 Xatalos wrote:
But the pressure is much stronger with vote+argument instead of just a vote (KharadBanar) or just an argument (Acrofales). So Acrofales, I encourage you to vote already. Your hesitation to vote only increases my suspicion of you, just like KharadBanar's empty voting increases my suspicion of him. A townie should never hesitate to vote. So while I agree that they need to respond, we won't necessarily get the answers we seek without the actual pressure of being lynched. On April 14 2012 21:31 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 21:12 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw.
The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay? Really? I thought roleblock stops Mafia KP in this setup. Just look at this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=324743&user=151616¤tpage=3 (the one where KharadBanar makes his last will and roleclaims before his death) Could we please get confirmation from a host? Ah, yeah... It doesn't really make sense for a blue to ask being jailed. But you don't know if I'm actually Jailer and just making the Mafia WIFOM into not shooting me, do you? Everything is possible. Even me being Mafia and wanting to buy a bit of credibility by sacrificing my power. I haven't announced my role yet. I'm glad you started posting and I like your response to my criticism of being AFK for the lynch. At the moment you read very town for me, so I agree with vonKlaust that you should be protected. At least we should encourage the Doctor to protect you - even if he decides otherwise, Mafia can't risk to waste their KP on you while you well might be protected. But I don't agree about telling who to investigate, because it would be too easy to frame then. Vigilante: yomi (preferably also explain your choice at the deadline, look at GOT where SLJ did this as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3)Jailer: Xatalos Doctor: Acrofales Detective: use your own judgement Most of Xatalos' posts are not useful and confusing. Sometimes I get the impression he is shitting up the thread on purpose and sometimes I get the impression he is trying to contribute. I am thus torn between the overeager townie and willfully confusing scum.
Verdict: suspicious. At the moment all he's doing is filling the thread with crap. His filter is nearly unreadable and making sense of it is hard as hell. He keeps distracting people from scumhunting and focusing on meaningless details. Overeager townie or scum? I am unsure, but keep an eye on him. When the lurkers are unlurked or shot, he had better have improved his posts, or I'm going after him.
Connections
I'm not a big fan of connections, but I noticed this:
Dittert and Yomi went at each other at a time there was really no reason to. If one is scum the other is probably town.
Xatalos and Yomi tunneling could mean the same thing.
Flipping yomi is not a bad idea to get a read on both of these (yeah yeah, coldhearted bastard).
Random stuff
vonKlaust is blending in pretty well. No time to analyse his filter properly atm, but he's doing a good job of being quite forgettable.
I might as well complete the "list": KB and ArcticFox are town reads for me.
Do we have a replacement for trumpetarn yet? I would have included him in the second set of suspects. I hope his replacement plays a more open style.
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On April 15 2012 07:19 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 01:32 Xatalos wrote:On April 14 2012 23:51 willz22912 wrote:
Xatalos, I may have played more towny than Yomi when I was on the chopping block, but that shouldn't let you ignore me in comparison to Yomi. You made your case against Yomi but a lot of it is just different playstyle, if I wasn't trying to play so positive compared to Yomi, I'd easily be the top suspect in your mind as well. You have been tunneling on Yomi a bit too much imo without looking at others, and a lot of your case against Yomi does rely on what alignment I flip, so if you want to lynch Yomi D2, you may as well have me vig shotted so I flip town and help your case.
I want you to explain this part right now. Your logic here is so horrible I can't even decide what to think about it. 1) If you are town, why do you want to die so badly? You can't be 100% certain I am town or 100% certain yomi is Mafia, but you CAN be 100% certain of your own alignment. So, if you actually are town and want to achieve a town victory, why would you ever want to kill the only 100% confirmed town player (yourself)? True, it would give us some new information, but killing yomi would give us equally much information. Even if you're not confident that yomi is Mafia, at the very least he is infinitely more likely to be Mafia than yourself (if you are town yourself). 2) You seem pretty hesitant about killing yomi, yet you want to get yourself killed so that you can "help my case against yomi". I don't see any kind of logic here. Besides, you flipping town wouldn't help my case against yomi especially greatly. It wouldn't make any sense for you two to be Mafia & Mafia anyway (why would yomi casually mention you are town in that case?). Your town flip wouldn't make me significantly more suspicious of yomi than I already am, and then we would have wasted our only Vigi shot on a townie who wants to get himself killed. If you are town, you are 100% confident in your own innocence, so there is zero reason to call for a Vigi shot on yourself. Overall, I don't think you are Mafia based on this, just a townie with a death wish and horrible logic. At least I can't imagine any situation where Mafia would want to get Vigi shot. My logic is that I think your case against Yomi is bad, and you have only tunneled him without looking at other people. He may be your top scum read but if you can't get a consensus from the rest of the town your read has no weight. If you really want to tunnel Yomi and continue to do so, your case relies on the fact that Yomi did not defend me sufficiently as a fellow town enough. Both myself and Yomi changed our votes in order to save ourselves, both town or Mafia would make this move. We both know for sure that our self (as in Yomi knows Yomi is town, I know I am town) so 100% read is better than a could be wrong on the other person. I think Yomi is more town than you think, but I was still willing to switch my vote to him to save myself because I know I am town. You can't use this reasoning to explain whether or not he is Mafia. Regarding my death wish, do you not see that Dittert isn't convinced of my innocence, ArcticFox still has his suspicions, and Acrofales posted the strong case against me in the first place? Thats 3/11 players left who have no inclination to believe in my towniness, meaning I have little to no credibility as town to push a Mafia even if I do find one and make a case. At best the other players see me as neutral, but probably most of them still have a scummy read to me. It would waste another day's time lynching me, the better option would be to vig shot me, even though I know I am town, because a dead townie in my position is better than a scummy looking town alive. I've stated this before when referring to Dittert, a bad town is worth sacrificing rather than keeping him alive. Case in point: BroodKingEXE, I for one don't miss him, even though he was a town, because he pretty much screwed us D1 with getting any information from either Yomi or myself's lynch. None of his filter contains any useful information, and it's his own fault he got himself lynched when he could have easily stayed silent. I don't think many people would miss me as well if I was suddenly killed by Mafia or vig shotted, so that's my logic.
I can kind of see your logic, but... Even though you have the baggage of suspicions from earlier, you shouldn't just give up and die like that. If you haven't noticed, there are a lot of players under general suspicion, not just you. You're not necessarily even in the top3 of suspicions at the moment...? You should keep trying and improve your reputation. Also, remember that the credibility of your Mafia reads aren't that severely diminished by your own suspiciousness. If you make a really strong case against someone, I doubt people would hesitate joining you just because you aren't the best town read at the moment. People don't really seem to think I am Mafia, but that doesn't mean I would be blindly followed either. A strong case is a strong case regardless of the one who made it, and a weak case is a weak case regardless of the one who made it.
I have indeed tunneled on yomi lately, but that's because I haven't gotten a stronger Mafia read than him in a while. Instead I have gotten a lot of town reads from players I have previously found suspicious (vonKlaust, ArcticFox), and slight Mafia reads from players like HiroPro, imallinson and Dittert. I realize it's pretty useless to say this now without much evidence, but there isn't much time left and there is a chance I do get shot now after all. However, I'll say some things briefly: HiroPro has been lurking very hard and pretty much only followed the general opinion after his pressure vote on me. imallinson has answered calmly and quite well to accusations against him, but still I see his play as pretty cautious and reactionary (reactionary play being usually a Mafia trait). Dittert's playstyle has changed from "I'm a noob, please don't lynch me" to "you're all idiots, you should listen to what I say" pretty awkwardly. I don't still see Dittert as suspicious as yomi says, but there's a higher chance for him being Mafia than average (25% like someone mentioned earlier, or higher now that BroodKing is dead).
The night actions are about to set in now so I'll just leave this post as it is and wait for what happens.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Gl5Nj.jpg)
