Pick Your Power Interesting! - Page 29

JimboSilvers

United Kingdom167 Posts

October 14 2011 18:16 GMT

#561

First on the list: Radfield, Sandroba, and a few others have made illusions to the fact that Analysis will not be useful in this game, and that we shouldn’t attempt it. Wrong. This is VERY wrong. Just because analysis doesn’t work the same way that it does in other games, doesn’t mean that we should abandon it. We change the way we analyze thing, sure, but we DO NOT ABANDON ANALYSIS. How do we change it? You analyze the situation, and change accordingly.

For example. In this game, there are three mafia families. This means that mafia’s agenda will NOT always be opposed to the town agenda. Mafia 1 wants to kill Mafia 2. Town wants to kill mafia 2. What this means, is that it wouldn’t be unlikely to see mafia helping town. Thus, a lot of good “townie” behavior becomes a null tell. A good example of this, is Radfield’s play so far. He’s put a lot of effort into the game. He’s genuinely improved the environment, I think. This is a NULL tell because mafia would have reason to do this too. (Please note I said NULL, not mafia. Obviously town will still want to do that this game, but the point that I’m trying to make is that lots of effort != Town. Lots of effort = Invested in the game)

Some things will remain the same. Mafia will still feel inherently guilty. They will still have something to hid. You can pick up on these things. IM is the best place to pick up on this. PM’s are good, IM’s are better, live voice calls are the best, but for obvious reasons are not practical. Look for scum slips, contradictions in logic, all that usual stuff, because it’s 10x harder to keep your story straight as mafia, when you have to think on the fly.

Now that that has been cleared, I have one scum to out, and a ton of ideas that need to be reined in before they suicide the town.

JimboSilvers

United Kingdom167 Posts

October 14 2011 18:18 GMT

#562

Sandroba: I recently had a conversation with Sandroba on irc, and got some really interesting things out of it.
The full conversations is + Show Spoiler [here] +

Session Start: Thu Oct 13 13:59:31 2011
Session Ident: sandroba
01[13:59] <JimboSilvers> Are you here?
[13:59] <sandroba> yeah
[13:59] <sandroba> I wasn't reading the chat
[14:00] <sandroba> so you are planning to run for mayor right?
01[14:00] <JimboSilvers> Yes,
01[14:00] <JimboSilvers> You are too?
[14:00] <sandroba> I was
01[14:00] <JimboSilvers> Past-tenst?
01[14:00] <JimboSilvers> *tense
[14:00] <sandroba> yes
[14:00] <sandroba> syllo convinced me
[14:00] <sandroba> that he is town
01[14:00] <JimboSilvers> What changed...Oh
01[14:00] <JimboSilvers> So you want him to be mayor.
[14:01] <sandroba> and he is running
[14:01] <sandroba> yes
01[14:01] <JimboSilvers> Hmm.
01[14:01] <JimboSilvers> I take it he convinced you in PM's?
[14:01] <sandroba> I'm pretty sure he is town
[14:01] <sandroba> yes
[14:01] <sandroba> through skype
[14:01] <sandroba> like 99%
[14:01] <sandroba> sure
01[14:01] <JimboSilvers> kk.
01[14:01] <JimboSilvers> Grr.
[14:02] <sandroba> and I want him to be elected =P
[14:02] <sandroba> btw
[14:02] <sandroba> aren't you suppose to not post in thread you will be running
[14:02] <sandroba> till after roles?
01[14:02] <JimboSilvers> Do you think that he should be elected because he is likely a townie, or because you think he will be a good mayor?
[14:02] <sandroba> he is good
01[14:02] <JimboSilvers> lol, i probably missed that in the OP too.
[14:02] <sandroba> he is smart as fuck
[14:03] <sandroba> are you not qatol =P
[14:03] <sandroba> I thought you were
[14:03] <sandroba> and if you are, that kinda makes you mafia no?
01[14:03] <JimboSilvers> Heh, funny that that is so obviously a tell that I'm not Qatol.
01[14:03] <JimboSilvers> ?
01[14:04] <JimboSilvers> How so?
[14:04] <sandroba> well
01[14:04] <JimboSilvers> Mafia Qatol doesn't read the OP?
[14:04] <sandroba> I thought
[14:04] <sandroba> it might be an exploit to get the host
[14:04] <sandroba> to stop you from running
[14:04] <sandroba> but maybe I'm digging too deep
01[14:05] <JimboSilvers> Lol, that's not too deep for me, but in the wrong way.
01[14:05] <JimboSilvers> I thin kreally deep when I'm scum.
01[14:05] <JimboSilvers> (Like, I will try reverse-reverse psychology as scum)
[14:05] <sandroba> you are not qatol
[14:05] <sandroba> or more likely
[14:05] <sandroba> huh?
01[14:05] <JimboSilvers> Exactly.
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> It makes sense to me.
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> Not many others.
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> Anyays,
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> I am not Qatol.
[14:06] <sandroba> cool =P
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> But who I am doesn't matter.
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> What I DO matters.
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> How I act, what i say.
[14:06] <sandroba> what do you think about supporting syllo instead
[14:06] <sandroba> of running =)
01[14:06] <JimboSilvers> Right now, I'm not convinced of Syllo's innocence,
01[14:07] <JimboSilvers> So right now, no
01[14:07] <JimboSilvers> But,
01[14:07] <JimboSilvers> That doesn't mean that my conversations with him will not change taht.
[14:08] <sandroba> okay
[14:08] <sandroba> there is just so many mafia this game
01[14:08] <JimboSilvers> Do you have a history of accepting that someone is town this easily?
[14:08] <sandroba> and you really want town to get the positions
01[14:08] <JimboSilvers> (Well. Easily isn't the right word, since I don't know what convinced you)
01[14:08] <JimboSilvers> yes
01[14:08] <JimboSilvers> I agree,
01[14:09] <JimboSilvers> Hold on a sec
[14:09] <sandroba> so reducing the number of possible candidates is beneficail
[14:09] <sandroba> beneficial
[14:09] <sandroba> like there is a fuckton of people that will be running that I know already
01[14:11] <JimboSilvers> Reducing the number of candidates helps us how?
01[14:11] <JimboSilvers> Easier to research candidates?
[14:11] <sandroba> it helps
[14:11] <sandroba> by electing syllo instead of spreading out
01[14:12] <JimboSilvers> Ah.
01[14:12] <JimboSilvers> meaning, we are more likely to ellect someone that we can all agree is town.
[14:12] <sandroba> and leaving scum to get one spot
01[14:12] <JimboSilvers> Is he on skype right now?
[14:12] <sandroba> like if there are many
[14:12] <sandroba> scum might need only like 3 town/other scum votes to get elected
[14:12] <sandroba> yes
01[14:12] <JimboSilvers> AH.
01[14:12] <JimboSilvers> I see.
[14:13] <sandroba> do you have me on skype?
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> If we are really spread out.
[14:13] <sandroba> are you kav btw
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> heh, maybe. 0_)
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> *0_0
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> Crap.
[14:13] <sandroba> shit did you make a secondary skype
[14:13] <sandroba> just to smurf this game
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> Oh hey!
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> That's a good idea!
[14:13] <sandroba> lol
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> Actaully, i have a better idea.
[14:13] <sandroba> yeah
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> Tell him to get on here so I can talk to him
01[14:13] <JimboSilvers> Cause i don't want to have to do that.
[14:14] <sandroba> k
[14:14] <sandroba> he logged out
01[14:14] <JimboSilvers> And i don't want to give up my ID at least till after the election.
[14:14] <sandroba> =/
[14:14] <sandroba> fuck
01[14:14] <JimboSilvers> lol
01[14:14] <JimboSilvers> w/e
01[14:14] <JimboSilvers> We will have another 48 hours.
[14:14] <sandroba> yeah
01[14:14] <JimboSilvers> Ok,
01[14:14] <JimboSilvers> So understand, that if I am not convinced OR I think that I can be a better mayor, i'll be obliged to run.
01[14:15] <JimboSilvers> Because I know I'm town more than anyhting,
[14:15] <sandroba> yes I understand
01[14:15] <JimboSilvers> And if I can convince the rest of the town of that, great.
[14:15] <sandroba> that is how I felt
01[14:15] <JimboSilvers> If I don't get much support,
[14:15] <sandroba> but unless he is a terrible person
[14:15] <sandroba> he is town
01[14:15] <JimboSilvers> Again, I'll talk to syllo, and that will dictate my vote.
[14:15] <sandroba> and I don't think he is a terrible person =P
[14:15] <sandroba> lol
01[14:15] <JimboSilvers> yeah,
01[14:16] <JimboSilvers> tbh, the little of what I saw syllo doing,
01[14:16] <JimboSilvers> was following his town meta.
01[14:16] <JimboSilvers> (i.e., making game breaking plans)
[14:16] <sandroba> hmm
[14:16] <sandroba> where did he do that?
01[14:16] <JimboSilvers> I'm checking.
01[14:17] <JimboSilvers> Cause I can't rememebr the instance either.
[14:17] <sandroba> he just agreed with my plan I think =P
01[14:18] <JimboSilvers> http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=11798558
01[14:18] <JimboSilvers> That was one.
01[14:18] <JimboSilvers> Not a huge thing,
01[14:18] <JimboSilvers> but simple quick thinking
01[14:18] <JimboSilvers> http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=11798095
01[14:18] <JimboSilvers> that was the other?
01[14:18] <JimboSilvers> I donno, they don't look as good right now.
01[14:19] <JimboSilvers> Btw, the fact taht he's not very active in thread or irc is a point against him in my book.
[14:19] <sandroba> yeah
[14:19] <sandroba> but anyway
[14:19] <sandroba> he is very very likely town
[14:19] <sandroba> he is active on irc
[14:20] <sandroba> on skype I mean
[14:20] <sandroba> but yeah
01[14:20] <JimboSilvers> Right, but how many people are on skype?
[14:20] <sandroba> the method he used to prove me he is town
[14:20] <sandroba> is kinda cheesy
[14:20] <sandroba> but seems legit to me
01[14:20] <JimboSilvers> Grr.
[14:20] <sandroba> and I don't think he would lie
[14:21] <sandroba> even as mafia in that situation
01[14:21] <JimboSilvers> Is it cheating?
01[14:21] <JimboSilvers> Or something? lol
[14:21] <sandroba> no
[14:21] <sandroba> it's not
[14:21] <sandroba> and it's something only works once
[14:21] <sandroba> but cheesy nontheless
[14:21] <sandroba> like circumvents the intent of the game
[14:22] <sandroba> but works ans is legit
01[14:22] <JimboSilvers> Something like breadcrumbbing the town-alignment PM.
[14:22] <sandroba> no as I wouldn't trust that
01[14:22] <JimboSilvers> Alright, enough about that.
[14:22] <sandroba> like we know each other for a long time
01[14:22] <JimboSilvers> What do you think of wherebugsgo?
[14:23] <sandroba> dunno
[14:23] <sandroba> I don't trust him
[14:23] <sandroba> but he seems to be willing to support syllo
[14:23] <sandroba> so Idc
[14:23] <sandroba> if we get good roles and elected positions
01[14:23] <JimboSilvers> ???
[14:23] <sandroba> town can terran it up
[14:24] <sandroba> and win by doing nothing
01[14:24] <JimboSilvers> You don't care that you don't trust him?
[14:24] <sandroba> I don't care for now
01[14:24] <JimboSilvers> And he is supporing something that you are as well?
[14:24] <sandroba> as long as he elects the people I want lol
[14:25] <sandroba> I'm more worried about finding people I can trust
[14:25] <sandroba> than finding scum atm
[14:25] <sandroba> tbh
[14:25] <sandroba> because the first days of this game will have little to no impact on the outcome
01[14:25] <JimboSilvers> Nonesense.
[14:25] <sandroba> what we have to do is to confirm a bunch of people
01[14:25] <JimboSilvers> Inventor get's elected mayor,
01[14:26] <JimboSilvers> makes a poliece radio,
[14:26] <sandroba> and survive and lynch into the others
01[14:26] <JimboSilvers> Publicly, many mafia will be outed.
01[14:26] <JimboSilvers> many innocents outed.
[14:26] <sandroba> hmm yes that would be good
[14:27] <sandroba> but that is the ideal situation
01[14:27] <JimboSilvers> Right, but it surves the purpose.
[14:27] <sandroba> and inventor can just as easily
01[14:27] <JimboSilvers> What we invest today, will pay off tomorrw.
[14:27] <sandroba> make a police radio
[14:27] <sandroba> that outs the opposite results
[14:27] <sandroba> or out results that his faimily is innocent
01[14:27] <JimboSilvers> Right,
[14:27] <sandroba> you will never know
01[14:27] <JimboSilvers> Which makes it important that we get inventor.
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> Well.
[14:28] <sandroba> yes
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> Actually.
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> yes.
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> yes we would.
[14:28] <sandroba> but that is impossible to ensure
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> All the DT's would see the opposite result.
[14:28] <sandroba> yeah eventually
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> And the only way you could pull that off is by passing it to a teammate,
[14:28] <sandroba> no since dts don't know each other
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> In which case, you've just sacked half your team, for al ittle misinformation,
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> Right,
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> but ONE of them would.
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> And if they bread crumb,
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> It would become apparent rather quic.
[14:29] <sandroba> yeah
[14:29] <sandroba> it has roles indeed
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> It comes down to a gamble,
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> That involves half your team.
[14:29] <sandroba> but it's something I thought about this second
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> Yeah
[14:29] <sandroba> I don't think inventions will rape this game
01[14:30] <JimboSilvers> it took me a second to find the anti argument,
01[14:30] <JimboSilvers> But I think that things COULD rape.
[14:30] <sandroba> since we can't know what they really do
01[14:30] <JimboSilvers> Yes we can.
01[14:30] <JimboSilvers> By the same principal.
01[14:30] <JimboSilvers> The invenor knows what it does,
01[14:30] <JimboSilvers> The giftedd person knows wha it does.
[14:30] <sandroba> yes
01[14:30] <JimboSilvers> that means you HAVE to use two members in this conspiracy,
01[14:31] <JimboSilvers> If you want to pull it off.
[14:31] <sandroba> let's supose an inventor invents a dt disruptor
01[14:31] <JimboSilvers> Not worth the risk.
[14:31] <sandroba> that modifies all dt checks
[14:31] <sandroba> it will fuck town up for several days
01[14:31] <JimboSilvers> Woudln't be allowed.
01[14:31] <JimboSilvers> That's too powerful.
[14:31] <sandroba> how is that more powerful than the police radio
01[14:32] <JimboSilvers> Poliece radio dones't change resultes.
01[14:32] <JimboSilvers> It makes the mpublic
[14:32] <sandroba> yeah
[14:32] <sandroba> but it's game breaking no?
01[14:32] <JimboSilvers> I think so.
01[14:32] <JimboSilvers> But it was allowed before.
[14:32] <sandroba> there you go
[14:32] <sandroba> man
[14:32] <sandroba> last pyp
[14:32] <sandroba> you had a hard time
[14:32] <sandroba> I mean
[14:32] <sandroba> personality
[14:32] <sandroba> you had a hard time
[14:33] <sandroba> to get your invention aproved no?
[14:33] <sandroba> like they deemed several things imba
01[14:33] <JimboSilvers> Yeah.
[14:33] <sandroba> Maybe police radio won't even be allowed this game
[14:33] <sandroba> but anyway
[14:34] <sandroba> I agree if we can get a town inventor into office that's great
01[14:34] <JimboSilvers> that's actually something that I'm checking currently.
01[14:34] <JimboSilvers> lol
[14:34] <sandroba> but how to know that guys is town before hand is the problem
01[14:34] <JimboSilvers> (Well. i asked an hour or so before)
01[14:34] <JimboSilvers> Right.
01[14:34] <JimboSilvers> that's why elections shouldn't be based on role.
01[14:34] <JimboSilvers> Because role is not a sorce of info about the alignment.
01[14:36] <JimboSilvers> What do you think of Kitaman?
[14:37] <sandroba> hmm his posts look ok
[14:37] <sandroba> but a bit on the bland side
[14:38] <sandroba> I haven't talked to him out of thread though
01[14:38] <JimboSilvers> Right.
01[14:38] <JimboSilvers> Finding mafia will be different this game.
01[14:39] <JimboSilvers> Because helping the town will not alwaysbe against the agenda of the mafia.
01[14:39] <JimboSilvers> I've been trying to think through the consequences for that.
[14:39] <sandroba> yes
[14:39] <sandroba> man
[14:39] <sandroba> dts
[14:39] <sandroba> will fuck this game up
[14:40] <sandroba> we will have to maybe scumhunt a couple of mafia late game
[14:40] <sandroba> like the first few days will be like
[14:40] <sandroba> "the following 8 people are scum"
[14:40] <sandroba> which to lynch
01[14:41] <JimboSilvers> ok.
01[14:41] <JimboSilvers> So,
01[14:41] <JimboSilvers> here's what i htink
01[14:41] <JimboSilvers> We cannot rely on confirming people. We cannot rely on DT's.
01[14:41] <JimboSilvers> DT's might not claim.
01[14:42] <JimboSilvers> If the mods balanced this game right, it will be impossible to 100% confirm someone.
[14:42] <sandroba> man that's why we elect syllo lol
[14:42] <sandroba> and possibly mig too
[14:42] <sandroba> since syllo trusts him
01[14:42] <JimboSilvers> Why trust syllo's instinct?
01[14:46] <JimboSilvers> Have you talked to Foolishness?
[14:47] <sandroba> well man
[14:47] <sandroba> I've played with him a lot
[14:47] <sandroba> and I respect his play lol
01[14:47] <JimboSilvers> No, I mean this game.
[14:47] <sandroba> more than the majority
[14:47] <sandroba> wait we are talking about foolishness now
[14:47] <sandroba> no
[14:48] <sandroba> I haven't talked to him
01[14:48] <JimboSilvers> lol,
01[14:48] <JimboSilvers> Ok.
01[14:48] <JimboSilvers> This makes more sense now.
01[14:48] <JimboSilvers> kk.
01[14:48] <JimboSilvers> Back to syllo.
[14:48] <sandroba> even though I have him on skype
[14:48] <sandroba> he never aproached me to talk
[14:48] <sandroba> and neither did I
[14:49] <sandroba> k what do you want to know
01[14:50] <JimboSilvers> What do you think of Foolishness?
[14:50] <sandroba> I think he is a nice guy lol
[14:50] <sandroba> but he has no posts
[14:52] <sandroba> do you have an opinion on him?
[14:52] <sandroba> have he talked to you at all?
01[14:52] <JimboSilvers> I'ev talked to him a couple of time.s
01[14:52] <JimboSilvers> I...Think that he's busy town at the moment.
01[14:53] <JimboSilvers> But like you say, there's not a lot to go on, only PM contact
01[15:16] <JimboSilvers> Why am I kav?
01[15:16] <JimboSilvers> btw?
[15:18] <sandroba> you just claimed
[15:18] <sandroba> to be kav to me
[15:18] <sandroba> lol
01[15:18] <JimboSilvers> No, actually,
01[15:18] <JimboSilvers> I said that I didn't have another skype for thei jimbo thing
[15:18] <sandroba> and you say
[15:18] <sandroba> I'm not qatol
[15:18] <sandroba> are you kav then
[15:18] <sandroba> maybe...
[15:18] <sandroba> lol
[15:18] <sandroba> you have me on skype
[15:19] <sandroba> you confirmed the personality thing
01[15:19] <JimboSilvers> I went along with it, yes.
[15:19] <sandroba> so are you saying you are not kav?
01[15:19] <JimboSilvers> But it's been making me try to figure out why you think I''m kavdragon this whole time.
[15:19] <sandroba> because
01[15:19] <JimboSilvers> i'm certainly aware of that situaition
[15:19] <sandroba> kavdragon's smurf was revealed
01[15:20] <JimboSilvers> Lol, which one?
[15:20] <sandroba> so you ain't kav?
01[15:20] <JimboSilvers> I can niether confirm nor deny,
[15:20] <sandroba> okay
[15:20] <sandroba> w/e
01[15:20] <JimboSilvers> But I will say that I was the first person to know that Insert_Freq was his smurf.
[15:20] <sandroba> it doesn't matter anyway
01[15:21] <JimboSilvers> Figure that out. Won't take long.
[15:21] <sandroba> wow
01[15:21] <JimboSilvers> Anyways.
[15:21] <sandroba> lol
[15:21] <sandroba> why you smurf so much
[15:21] <sandroba> man
[15:21] <sandroba> you are gmarshal right?
01[15:21] <JimboSilvers> Don't like reputation getting in the way of play.
01[15:21] <JimboSilvers> XD, Sorry, not going to confirm or deny anything.
[15:22] <sandroba> lol
01[15:22] <JimboSilvers> Anyways, enough about who i am.
[15:22] <sandroba> you take ver's smurf
[15:22] <sandroba> and say that
[15:22] <sandroba> that doesn't make any sense
[15:23] <sandroba> yeah sure
[15:23] <sandroba> but make a fake skype then my irc is buggy as fuck
[15:23] <sandroba> skype is so much better
Session Close: Thu Oct 13 16:02:04 2011

I’ve edited it down to the key sections + Show Spoiler [here] +

Sandro: Syllo convinced me that he is town.
Jimbo: I take it he convinced you in PM’s?
Sandro: yes. Through skype, like, 99% sure. And I want him to be elected.
[break]
Sandro: We should elect Syllo, and possibley mig too since Syllo trust him.
Jimbo: Why trust syllo’s instinct?
Sandro: I’ve played with him a lot, and I respect his play more than the majority.

Sandro: Dt’s will fuck this game up. We will maybe have to scumhunt a couple of mafia late game. Like, the first few days will be like “the following 8 people are scum.” Which one do we lynch?
Sandro: Town can terran it up and win by doing nothing.

Jimbo: What do you think of wherebugsgo?
Sandro: Donno. I don’t trust him, but he seems to be willing to support syllo so I don’t care. If we get good roles and elected positions.
Jimbo: You don’t care that you don’t trust him? And he is supporting something you are as well?
Sandro: I don’t care for now. As long as he elects the people I want, lol. I'm more worried about finding people I can trust than finding scum at the moment, to be honest. Because the first days of this game will have little to no impact on the outcome. What we have to do is to confirm a bunch of people and survive and lynch into the others.

And I’ll summarize his comments, below:
We can “terran” it up, do nothing, and let blues find the scum for us. We can just confirm a bunch of people and survive and lynch into the others.

“I don’t care about the fact that I don’t trust wherebugsgo as, long as he is voting for the people that I want to get elected.

“Syllo convinced me in PM’s that he is town 99%, so I think he should be mayor, and since he thinks Mig is town, I trust his opinion enough that I think we should elect those two players. (I’ll get to this later)”

Let’s take this a piece at a time.
First: “We can “terran” it up, do nothing, and let blues find the scum for us. We can just confirm a bunch of people and survive and lynch into the others.”
This is a pretty easy one to spot. Let’s just look at a few town guides, which almost every player here has read, or at least skimmed. Off the top of my head, I can recall two sections. One from Ver’s XXX Analysis, the other from BC’s town breakdown/analysis.

On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote:
Town play has suffered for far too long by relying too much on the crutch of confirmed innocents and blues. Understand that the town's objective is to find and kill mafia, not find and worship confirmed innocents.

On January 28 2011 06:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
TL towns have of late been getting rolled by inactive mafias or been self-imploding.

Some of these reasons include a few of the following core issues

Placing all their trust in one player
Placing too much importance on blues performing
Not enough behavioural analysis
(In the case of clue games and behavioural games) Too much tunneling of targets.
Talking about issues that allow mafia to easily blend in
[break ]
People have also been recently putting too much stake in blue performance. This is a bad idea as with recent games role counts of blues are hidden. You wait for days for a detective to come out with their information only to find out at the end there was no detective. This is a fundamental problem that can only be fixed if people assume there are no blues in the game. Assume its just vanilla green vs. vanilla mafia. Analysis is key. If you have blue roles, awesome, but just assume you don’t and play accordingly.

It’s also a bad reason to assume blues will do amazingly as not everyone has experience as said blue role they have. Vigilantes and mad hatters have stress on performance to aim at mafia, detectives have the stress of keeping alive while checking accurately, and so on. These players have added stress, and may or may not perform well because of it. Too much pressure on them and they will most likely perform badly or give themselves up too early.

Just go down the list. Sandroba is (and even Redfield now) BLATENTLY saying that we should do something that is obviously anti-town. This game is not some exception to the rules. There will be some changes, but not a complete overhaul, and certainly nothing that will make relying on blues OR confirmed townies a good idea. I cannot stress these points enough:

We CANNOT rely on confirmed townies.
We CANNOT rely on blues.
We CANNOT sit back, and do nothing.
We MUST analyze.
We MUST be active.
We MUST scumhunt.

Next part: “I don’t care about the fact that I don’t trust wherebugsgo, as long as he is voting for the people that I want to get elected.”

This is extremely poor play, and not something that should be coming out of ANYONE in this game. When you do something as a townie, you gather information then act on it. However, you would be a poor player if you didn’t also take into account reactions to your actions. If you get this great case together on someone, and EVERYBODY agrees, and is like, “let’s lynch this guy!” There’s obviously a problem. If nobody tries to redirect, defend or otherwise avoid that person’s lynch, that means that Mafia are OK with it, and that’s a problem. Many times an innocent townie has been saved because smart people looked at the reaction to the lynch, and said, “Something’s not right”.

If you want to get someone into office, and everybody that you suspect also starts voting for them, you’d better be concerned, ‘cause something is NOT right with that. So when I see people like Syllo and Sandroba and others say things like, “I don’t care that I don’t trust them, all I care is that this person gets elected” there’s a problem with that.

To quote a conversation I had with Syllo,

Syllo: that's how mafia tends to work though, people sheep opinions of others.
Jimbo: And you are OK with them sheeping you???
Syllo: Yes. Of course if I want someone elected, I need support .

This is terrible play. You should NEVER rely on sheep to help you elect people, (to say nothing of the people sheeping). You don’t get a reaction that can help you gauge the situation, you effectively half the information that you should be basing your decisions off of. People NEED to form opinions of their own. Especially this early in the game, NOBODY should be trusting people enough to base decisions as important as mayor on another person. When Sandro and Arcto began saying things like “I trust syllo’s read on Mig” HUGE red flags went up in my head. We haven’t even had a flip/claim/information event yet, and already people trust someone that much!? It doesn’t make sense for smart townies to play this way, and I KNOW that sandro and Syllo are smart players.

“Syllo convinced me in PM’s that he is town 99%, so I think he should be mayor, and since he thinks Mig is town, I trust his opinion enough that I think we should elect those two players. (I’ll get to this later)”
Think about this. Any rational townie should not be trusting people this early. It is not in the nature of a good townie to do this, and it eliminates any real analysis that the players would have to otherwise do. Mafia can hide behind people by sheeping really easily because they don’t have to put out any ideas of their own. When time comes to look at what they’ve said, there’s nothing there.

We CANNOT allow people to sheep in this game. We CANNOT sit back passively and “terran it up”. Sure, use the FFA analogy, we need survive, sure. But in an FFA you are macroing, and setting yourself up to take the game later.

If we adopt a policy of letting blues do our work for us, or sitting back, or turtleing, we will come to the endgame, and have nothing to work with. If must invest this time now, so that we have something in the future.

Now. That all being said, Pending public opinion, I will lynch Sandroba if elected mayor, for blatantly pushing pro-mafia policies and ideas.

JimboSilvers

United Kingdom167 Posts

October 14 2011 18:19 GMT

#563

tl;dr

Analysis is Key.
Town cannot rely on confirmed townies, OR Blues.
Sheeping is bad play, and nobody should be OK with it, especially if they are sheeping you.
Sandroba is scum

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

October 14 2011 19:11 GMT

#564

@Jimbo You are being intentionally narrow minded about this. I can't believe you are doing this as town. This is no normal game. The early game we SHOULD focus on finding innocents and keep them alive. We should focus on protecting them and making sure they live until the late game when scumhunting will be the focus. This game has an enormous amount of roles and right now keeping key townies alive should be the focus of every townie.
I don't really know who you are, but if you are who I suspect you should know better than this and you must have some agenda behind it.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

October 14 2011 19:15 GMT

#565

You are also distorting everything I said. I never said analysis is not important. I've been preaching that finding town is way more important than finding scum early game and I believe that strongly. Good job trying to paint me as scum though.

JimboSilvers

United Kingdom167 Posts

October 14 2011 19:18 GMT

#566

On October 15 2011 04:11 sandroba wrote:
@Jimbo You are being intentionally narrow minded about this

[14:23] <sandroba> town can terran it up
[14:24] <sandroba> and win by doing nothing

It doesn't take a narrow mind to realize that this is a bad plan.

I never said that Confirmed innocents aren't more useful. Just like Ver and BC never say that Blues and Confirmed townies are BAD, but RELYING on them as a strategy is, and always will be, bad play. If anyone reads the thread right now, the atmosphere is saying that analysis isn't useful, and the only thing we can do is find confirmed innocents. That's just wrong. No matter how useful greens and blues might be, analysis will always be key.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

October 14 2011 19:20 GMT

#567

You took an pun and twisted into a wall of text. Way to go.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

October 14 2011 19:21 GMT

#568

First off, we discussed what I meant regarding "analysis will not win us this game" last night. I was making a point(about investigative roles and their priority) and you agreed that you saw what I was trying to do and the point I was trying to make.

Yet here you are slinging mud on me, and taking my remark out of context. tsk tsk

__________

Next part: “I don’t care about the fact that I don’t trust wherebugsgo, as long as he is voting for the people that I want to get elected.”

This makes perfect sense. I want to get elected, I could care less whether or not the players voting me are scum or not, as long as i get the votes. Why? Because I know that having me in an elected role is fantastic for town. Therefore, all i care about it their votes. + Show Spoiler +

Obviously I also care about their reasons for voting, as that helps to pinpoint their alignment.

Honestly, your whole post is forced. Obviously we need to analyze, be active and scumhunt. No one is really suggesting otherwise. They are simply prioritizing.

I agree that trusting someone this early in the game is strange. But the keyword here is strange, not necessarily scummy. Though I certainly understand where you are coming from. But every single player I have talked to about Mig seems to think he came across as a townie in their conversations(I did not). That means I am willing to give him another look, and readjust to the situation.

I think the likelihood of you being scum are fairly high Jimbo. I think you are trying to force a contribution here. However, as you are the number 3 pick, and already a target for scum, I will not be lynching you tonight. Scum will likely deal with you in due time.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

October 14 2011 19:23 GMT

#569

Sandroba are you suggesting that we should rely on blues and defensive roles to catch scum?

Please clarify yourself so everyone knows what your plan entails. Your reaction to Jimbo's accusations seems to be contradicting the logs he posted.

JimboSilvers

United Kingdom167 Posts

October 14 2011 19:26 GMT

#570

First off, since there is some confusion over this, let me clear up the purpose of the post:

The purpose is not to derail Migs campaign. That might be a consequence of it, (I don't know. I haven't thought it out yet)

The purpose was not to point out Sandroba's scummy behaviour.

The purpose was to point out ideas that are floating around unquestioned in a town where they should never have been in the first place.

I wasn't speaking specifically at you, Sandroba, when i mentioned discrediting analysis. I think that you are elevating other things higher than they should be, but I was referring to this:

On October 12 2011 19:15 Radfield wrote:
Blues don't win mafia games... analysis does. Don't rely on DT's to do the work. Right...RIGHT? Unfortunately... kinda wrong.

This is a terrible way of thinking about the game, and i don't know why it hasn't been questioned till now.

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

October 14 2011 19:38 GMT

#571

On October 15 2011 04:26 JimboSilvers wrote:
I wasn't speaking specifically at you, Sandroba, when i mentioned discrediting analysis. I think that you are elevating other things higher than they should be, but I was referring to this:

Show nested quote +

This is a terrible way of thinking about the game, and i don't know why it hasn't been questioned till now.

We talked about this last night. I was making a point, and you agreed that you saw I was using hyperbole to make a point. It's like you're pretending to not understand what my intention was with that remark.

Also:

The purpose was not to point out Sandroba's scummy behaviour.

This does not jive with the following:

I have one scum to out

I will lynch Sandroba if elected mayor, for blatantly pushing pro-mafia policies and ideas.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

October 14 2011 19:39 GMT

#572

Wow now you are contradicting yourself. Your whole campaign is sandroba is scum and if I get elected I will lynch him. You posted a wall of text saying I'm scum. How was that not the point? We have ~10 info roles this game and only 2 ways of disguising. How is focusing on finding townies with good roles and make sure they survive a non-optimal plan? My whole plan (which you agreed to) was based on that notion, that it is the optimal way to play this particular game. Last pyp game which was way more "find scum" centric, since there was only one mafia team pushing their objectives toghether and didn't have any conflicting interest blues basically won the game for town. If it wasn't for GM's checks that game would be completely different.
You are making no sense what-so-ever and you are trying to force things that aren't there. Now you are back pedalling when your fail logic is exposed.

JimboSilvers

United Kingdom167 Posts

October 14 2011 19:39 GMT

#573

On October 15 2011 04:21 Radfield wrote:
First off, we discussed what I meant regarding "analysis will not win us this game" last night. I was making a point(about investigative roles and their priority) and you agreed that you saw what I was trying to do and the point I was trying to make.

Yet here you are slinging mud on me, and taking my remark out of context. tsk tsk

Again, this is not about slinging mud at you, this is about making sure that nobody else thinks it's a good idea to abandon analysis. You will notice that I took it up with you right away, and clarified your position. I don't count that against you, because you had your heart in the right place. BUT I did need to make sure that the rest of the town wasn't mislead by what you POSTED like I was.

__________

Show nested quote +

Obviously I also care about their reasons for voting, as that helps to pinpoint their alignment.

First of all, it's not about YOU caring that people are voting for someone, it's about careing that people are voting for someone ELSE because of you. YOU know that you are town, so sure, they are voting in someone who is town. But if everyone is like, "Hey, rad is voting for Ver, let's all vote Ver cause Rad knows what he is doing" Then there's a problem. Because you should be looking at that, and saying, Obviously everyone is happy with this, when the people with more information (mafia) really shouldn't be.

"it's strange" is another way of saying "it doesn't make sense". It doesn't make sense from a townie's perspective, it makes sense from a mafia perspective. That spells scummy to me. (Not scum, scummy. It takes more than that to label someone as scum, for me.)

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

October 14 2011 19:41 GMT

#574

On October 15 2011 04:21 Radfield wrote:

Honestly, your whole post is forced. Obviously we need to analyze, be active and scumhunt. No one is really suggesting otherwise. They are simply prioritizing.

Wait a sec

+ Show Spoiler +

[14:39] <sandroba> yes
[14:39] <sandroba> man
[14:39] <sandroba> dts
[14:39] <sandroba> will fuck this game up
[14:40] <sandroba> we will have to maybe scumhunt a couple of mafia late game
[14:40] <sandroba> like the first few days will be like
[14:40] <sandroba> "the following 8 people are scum"
[14:40] <sandroba> which to lynch

I think you're stretching by saying that no one is saying that we don't need to scumhunt. All three of you, Sandroba, and Mig have said things that can be interpreted as either "analysis is not important" or "we will not need analysis to win" or "we should simply focus on surviving and not try to die" which is just a weak way of saying try not to lynch scum by being active and chasing their scummy little asses down.

Finally, Jimbo, I don't give a shit if your intention was not to incriminate Sandroba or call him scum, but your logs do enough to paint him as scum that I will call him scum right now.

Take the spoilered part of the log that I just posted, and compare it to this:

+ Show Spoiler +

[14:27] <sandroba> make a police radio
[14:27] <sandroba> that outs the opposite results
[14:27] <sandroba> or out results that his faimily is innocent
01[14:27] <JimboSilvers> Right,
[14:27] <sandroba> you will never know
01[14:27] <JimboSilvers> Which makes it important that we get inventor.
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> Well.
[14:28] <sandroba> yes
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> Actually.
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> yes.
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> yes we would.
[14:28] <sandroba> but that is impossible to ensure
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> All the DT's would see the opposite result.
[14:28] <sandroba> yeah eventually
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> And the only way you could pull that off is by passing it to a teammate,
[14:28] <sandroba> no since dts don't know each other
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> In which case, you've just sacked half your team, for al ittle misinformation,
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> Right,
01[14:28] <JimboSilvers> but ONE of them would.
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> And if they bread crumb,
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> It would become apparent rather quic.
[14:29] <sandroba> yeah
[14:29] <sandroba> it has roles indeed
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> It comes down to a gamble,
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> That involves half your team.
[14:29] <sandroba> but it's something I thought about this second
01[14:29] <JimboSilvers> Yeah
[14:29] <sandroba> I don't think inventions will rape this game

OH LOOK

Either Sandroba thinks DTs/power roles will fuck this game up by finding all the scum, OR he thinks that investigative roles will potentially be very unreliable because of the potential for the inventor to screw with them.

Sandroba, either we rely on the roles or we are cautious of them. You can't have it both ways and this is a blatant logical contradiction.

He's scum.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

October 14 2011 19:46 GMT

#575

That was me saying that electing inventor just because he is inventor is not a good idea. We can't trust his inventions unless he is town. You are on my top list of suspicion wbg, so yeah. Keep distorting stuff I say, this is fun.

Mr. Wiggles

Canada5894 Posts

October 14 2011 19:46 GMT

#576

Syllo, can you address this for me?

(Open the nested Quotes)

On October 14 2011 15:14 syllogism wrote:

Show nested quote +

Discussion is good, but in the end platforms are pure fluff, especially in a game with 3 different scum teams. Walls of text detailing your plans and policies say quite little about your alignment, especially if the person in question is someone like Radfield. Furthermore, promises are meaningless if the person being elected isn't town.. Obviously we are never going to elect a "dumb" pardoner or mayor, given the fact how many solid players there are in the game.

Anyway, Mig is likely town and everyone should be voting for him. Yes, take my word for it

On October 14 2011 22:04 syllogism wrote:
Only sandroba has been talking about 99% probability, so you are twisting our words for your own benefit. I've also not said anything about Sandroba's alignment. Also it's interesting that you made those conclusions without actually being in contact with me in any way (you did add me on skype and admittedly our time zones aren't compatible; PMs are however an option).

I'm not running for mayor, though I certainly would push for my election as well if I could do it at this juncture but the votes aren't there. Thus I'm doing the next best thing; attempting to elect someone who I've the strongest town read of. I think he has a better chance at getting elected, which is mostly why I'm not running myself.

Can you please elaborate on what you think our alignments are? Do you think me and mig are scum buddies and just being extremely daring? You did mention that you think one or both of us is scum and trying to "to ride the coattails of the strong pro-town player into Office". Who is the strong pro-town player then and which one is latching onto him? Mig didn't even want to run and I pushed him into it. You aren't very consistent and coherent with your accusations, which is quite scummy.

I just thought of this now, and didn't notice it before. The bolded parts seem to contradict each other. You say that "All that matters is denying the positions from scum.", so you support Mig in a campaign that he hadn't even announced yet, and don't run for mayor yourself, because "the votes aren't there".

How do you know the votes aren't there, without trying to run? Right now, there's no votes for anybody, really, so that implies that it's very hard to know whether you'll get enough votes to be elected, unless you're some kind of psychic.

So, there's a break-down in the logic. You say the biggest criteria for elections is that the player is town. In mafia, you can only be sure of your own alignment. So, instead of running for mayor/pardoner yourself in order to secure the position for a known town player, you put up Mig as a candidate instead, who you say you believe to be town. But in doing this, you contradict yourself. There's no way to be able to tell that he's town better than your knowledge of your own alignment, so obviously he isn't more likely to be town than yourself. Then, you say you didn't run yourself because the votes aren't there, when the votes aren't there for anybody right now, and there's no way to tell if they would be without trying.

Then add on to it, that you admitted in PM that you didn't even talk to Mig about the game much, but somehow determined his alignment to the extent that you'd be willing to put him in office over yourself.

Your behaviour doesn't make sense from a town perspective, so either there's something fishy going on that we don't know about, or you're scum.

At this point, I feel uncomfortable voting any of Mig/Syllo/San into office. They're too interconnected, and taken together, their stories don't really add up right to me.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

October 14 2011 19:49 GMT

#577

I like how you've been lurking this game pretty hard and not contributing shit to relevant matters (which is the complete oposite of townie wbg I know), but when someone posts a case on how a person that finds you suspicious, you come in and make your first long post.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

October 14 2011 19:51 GMT

#578

On October 15 2011 04:46 sandroba wrote:
That was me saying that electing inventor just because he is inventor is not a good idea. We can't trust his inventions unless he is town. You are on my top list of suspicion wbg, so yeah. Keep distorting stuff I say, this is fun.

Try actually rebutting some of what I'm saying.

Just asserting that I'm distorting what you're saying without actually providing evidence as to how I'm distorting it is pretty lame. You don't even clarify yourself, you just assert I'm scum.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

October 14 2011 19:53 GMT

#579

This "if you are town, you must be running for mayor since you can only know your own alignment" is such an hilariously flawed logic. The only way to elect someone is to get more than 1 vote and that supposedly requires townies voting for townies or we are guaranteed to end up with a scum mayor.

Absurdly bad

Mr. Wiggles

Canada5894 Posts

October 14 2011 19:57 GMT

#580

On October 15 2011 04:53 syllogism wrote:
This "if you are town, you must be running for mayor since you can only know your own alignment" is such an hilariously flawed logic. The only way to elect someone is to get more than 1 vote and that supposedly requires townies voting for townies or we are guaranteed to end up with a scum mayor.

Absurdly bad

Nice way to avoid the questions.

Why vote for mig, based on his towniness, when you didn't even talk to him about the game, and then declare the only reason you aren't running yourself, is because you don't think you'd get the votes, when you never even tried to run yourself, and when mig wasn't even running, and had no votes either.

Why do you trust him, more than yourself?

Now that's absurdly bad.

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