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On June 06 2012 02:35 austinmcc wrote:
What in particular. What portions of what posts, specifically?
@austinmcc
Does it really matter? What's done is done. Unless you are interested in lynching Unfogiven, I don't really see the point in talking about this now. We can discuss it after the game.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote:
So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
@shiaopi
I understand that it seems unfair, but golden's alignment is guaranteed the same as your alignment, so it's perfectly logical to draw evidence against you from things golden said. Just as it's logical to think austinmcc is townie based mostly on the actions of ange777. Just because it's out of your control doesn't make it not evidence.
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On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote:
So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.
Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
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I'm interested in getting a stronger read on Unforgiven. He's seemed scummy at times and for all his conviction on his various reads, he doesn't back them up with much. I'd like to see him back up his statements with some more reasoning, rather than things like:
On June 02 2012 09:30 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
danm, i just noticed, the las post i made from my phone didnt got here.
My main suspect, is a tie: Heis / Xatalos
One of them is mafia, i dont think both are scum because his way of play would just be ridiculous, being overagressive since the begging One of them is mafia...why?
+ Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 09:56 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Im sure im gonna die tonight (Xalatos, that means GAME's night ;D sorry), Possible escenarios for me suki mafia, xalatos town: suki just used my "town leader" missunderstanding to try and push a mislynch on anyone Xalatos had on sight, he wanted to get a bandwagon rolling as long it werent on any of his friends, the other two mafias waited to see if this worked to jump at last hour. suki mafia, Xalatos mafia: They accorded in their QT they would try to take "town leadership" to their own, Xalatos states a case, suki pushed it, some other couple townies fall for this, and the 3rd mafia joins to guarantee a mayority Because my post are a bit(lot?) confusing to townies, they want to use this to gain some advantage, leaving me alive and triying to get Ange777 instead. suki mafia, heist town: heist missread everything i posted and just falls for the starting random post against me, he even dedicates a lines to me + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote:
@Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this. Thanks to this post i made my acussation against suki and started to get more agressive, thank you! He then casta vote to superouman and later falls for teh case against me.
suki mafia, heist mafia this is where it gets interesting, His first post a some random tips to me, attacks some random townies, wants to look "neutral" when my case was starting to get some heat, when things seemed to reach a finishing point, he drops this pearl + Show Spoiler +You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims.
You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.
You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What???
You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.
I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam.
My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment.
##Unvote
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
You know, just cassually voting to the main (innocent) target at the time...and then one hour before deadline, he cast his vote against suki, because you know, he said MANY TIMES lynching is preferably to nothing and he had to stand by his word ... im already seeing the mafia QT "HEY SUKI IM SORRY, WE NEED TO WINZ LOLZ" That makes him slightly higher on my list. FoS (and pretty sure vote, at least something really weird happens or if im alive at day 2) heistAs always, if you dont understand something and/or want to ask something, please do. i'll be checking from my phone tonight
Brings up heist's vote, but nothing else specific. He even notes that heists's voteswap was in line with what he said he'd do.
On June 05 2012 06:28 Unforgiven_ve wrote:wtf whit the replacements, it makes it harder to try and read someone after 2 days of play :s Also, vivax, what about this? + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote:
Also know that I will be voting for anyone except myself, should that help in achieving a majority. I dont belive vivax is scum, nevertheless i will change my vote if neccesary, i think we still need 2 votes for a lynch? doesn't believe Vivax is scum, no reasoning.
On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote:It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts Show nested quote +If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. and Show nested quote +I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read. screams mafia for me. There's some reasoning here, finally, but I'd like to see it expanded. Still doesn't explain why he thinks Vivax is town. Gives reasons for suspecting heist, but they feel a little flimsy. "the way he started to play,"
how he acted around the suki lynch."
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a
Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is
We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought,
They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure)
Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around
Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
Again, reasons but vague. His posts are towny. His attitude and defense of suki.
Not calling him scum yet, but look at his filter. He's very convinced in his reads and his own towniness, but he doesn't really back up the reads with quotes, sound reasoning. At the very least, I want specific reasoning to be able to hold him to.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On June 06 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote:
So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement. That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying. Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
Why is that logic bad/scummy? We are pretty much playing a behavioural analysis game and therefore I just pointed out that taking things a person did not do to analyse him does not always bring up coherent results as I am not Golden and he isn't me. I also never said that you should not look at Golden's filter. You are trying to read something within my posts that isn't there.
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On June 06 2012 03:37 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote:On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote:
So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement. That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying. Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next. Why is that logic bad/scummy? We are pretty much playing a behavioural analysis game and therefore I just pointed out that taking things a person did not do to analyse him does not always bring up coherent results as I am not Golden and he isn't me. I also never said that you should not look at Golden's filter. You are trying to read something within my posts that isn't there.
The problem is that you have the same alignment as o.Golden_ne, so o.Golden_ne's actions are equally important as your own actions when determining your alignment. It's the same when there's a hydra player (2+ players on one account): you have to consider every post, no matter who posted it. The way how you downplay the importance of o.Golden_ne's posts can be seen as either misguided policy-making or deflecting dangerous attention away from them.
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I'd like to get this out there just in case I die. If I don't die, my schedule is just about to clear up and I should be much more active in the last 36 or so hours of D3.
While reexamining my thoughts, I realized that I had turned a blind eye to heist's play. Most of his opinions lined up with mine and I was pretty damn sure Vivax was scum. Now that Vivax flipped town I think heist is our best possible D3 lynch. If I'm alive come day cycle I'll explain my thoughts in full.
This next theory is pretty fucking crazy and I don't expect anyone to take it seriously unless heist turns out to be a mislynch. There is a small chance that sciberbia and Unforgiven are scum. Imagine this line of play for a scum team, two of you bus another player D1 and hope to ride free of suspicion for the rest of the game. I know it seems pretty out there but if there is anyone who could pull it off, I have enough respect for sciberbia's play to think he might have orchestrated it. This has been a nagging thought in the back of my mind for a while. I don't think this is how it went so I'll only seriously entertain the notion if/when we hit LYLO.
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I think it's likely I die tonight, so here are my (possible) last words
+ Show Spoiler +
I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia.
Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him:
- golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good.
- golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town
- golden's defense of suki was really scummy
- shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia
- shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly
If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki.
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Day 3
sciberbia the Vanilla Townie was found in a puddle of blood.
It is now Day 3. You have roughly 48 hours to get your votes in. With 7 alive the majority stands 4!
Deadline is 22:30 GMT (+00:00) as always.
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GG sciberbia. Well played sir.
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Well, that wasn't too shocking :/ I pretty much agree with sciberbia's final Mafia reads, so lynching heist seems like the best option for today.
##Vote heist
I came back here just to see the night kill before falling asleep, but now I really need some sleep. I'll post more detailed thoughts tomorrow. ShiaoPi, do you still think heist is townie?
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
GG Sciberbia, you will be missed.
I will have to reread the cases against heist and his filter before giving my opinion on heist. But for now I am off to bed.
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##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious
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What's going on here? Only three short posts since I went to sleep yesterday? Almost half of this day has already gone to waste. Everyone, you should post your reads and reasoning to get things moving already -.-
I'm pretty sure the last 2 Mafia are between heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve. heist seems like the most obvious Mafia - it's telling that nobody (except ShiaoPi) has seen him as a town read, and he was the prime suspect for both s0Lstice and sciberbia before they were killed.
If heist flips Mafia, ShiaoPi would be the most logical third Mafia. He's simply had too many suspect interactions with both suki and heist. If heist flips town (which I find hard to believe at this point), Unforgiven_ve would be more likely Mafia than ShiaoPi. Unforgiven_ve has been shouting "hey, I'm town, my reads are 100% assured and correct, can you see I'm not Mafia yet?" at every turn, but it would be pretty stupid play (although not impossible, looking at his posting...) if he took his act far enough to tunnel both of his teammates. That's really nonsensical, but then again, so has been his general posting style...
The current vote count is 2 for heist (me, Unforgiven_ve). Miltonkram's latest post indicates that he'd be willing to lynch heist for today. That means one more vote is needed for the lynch to go through.
ShiaoPi, Miltonkram and austinmcc: what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Eishi_Ki, why did you even join this game if you're not going to play it? Or maybe you're just actively lurking? It doesn't really look like that, but anything's possible. Your latest post is 2 days old... So what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Unforgiven_ve, why do you actually think heist is 100% Mafia and what's your reasoning for randomly saying I'm "75% Mafia"...? What are your thoughts on ShiaoPi?
heist, what are your Mafia reads now that Vivax and Superouman flipped town? Are you still "comfortable" with lynching Unforgiven_ve? What are your detailed opinions on every player right now?
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I'm willing to lynch heist. If he flips red then I think ShiaoPi is scum too. If he flips town then I'll have to pursue other leads such as Eishi_Ki, Unforgiven or Xatalos. I haven't been around much because my sister got in a car accident while the rest of my family is out of town. She'll be ok, but I have to drive out to my family's place and take care of her for a while. I should be back with plenty of time before the lynch deadline, but just in case I don't here is my vote.
##Vote: heist
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On June 07 2012 03:42 Miltonkram wrote:
I'm willing to lynch heist. If he flips red then I think ShiaoPi is scum too. If he flips town then I'll have to pursue other leads such as Eishi_Ki, Unforgiven or Xatalos. I haven't been around much because my sister got in a car accident while the rest of my family is out of town. She'll be ok, but I have to drive out to my family's place and take care of her for a while. I should be back with plenty of time before the lynch deadline, but just in case I don't here is my vote.
##Vote: heist
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways 
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
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@ Unforgiven
You're half-assing your posting. I've got RL complications and I can still find time to get in the thread and contribute. It's not slipped my mind that you may have bussed suki D1. If heist flips green, which is unlikely but possible, my attention will be turning towards you. You've still got a little less than 24 hours left in the day cycle to commit to some kind of reads.
@ Xatalos
I've outlined my opinions on heist and ShiaoPi. Right now I would imagine heist is staying out of the thread so as not to reveal much more information to us. It's just confirming my suspicions against him more and more. The case on ShiaoPi leans a little bit on how heist flips but not entirely. If he's scum Golden's play set him up pretty badly. If heist is a mislynch I'm considering Unforgiven, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi and you as all possible scum.
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@ Eishi_Ki
I'd love to hear from you on just about anything. Post your reads please. With the information we've gained from the N2 kill what are your opinions on heist? I realize you have RL things going on as well but please give us some information/reads we can hold you to.
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