EPTNewbie Mini XV - Page 27
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Unforgiven_ve
Venezuela1232 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I realized that I've been holding too many people in suspicion. My thoughts have been something like this, "It makes sense for X to be scum and it makes sense for Y to be scum, but Z seems scummy too. If Z is scum then X and Y can't possibly be scum." It's really difficult for me to make any headway if I keep thinking like that. Right now the best case is against heist and it makes sense for ShiaoPi to be his scumbuddy. I'll be reassessing the thread as soon as we see heist flip. Do I find some of Xatalos's play scummy? Sure, but I also find parts of Eishi_Ki's and ShiaoPi's, as well as your own, play scummy too. You can't all be scum so I need to start sticking to a few assumptions. My folks are back in town and taking care of my sister. She only had a few minor injuries from the crash so that won't be weighing on my mind as much. | ||
|
Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 07 2012 11:30 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Milton, What about Xatalos? Could you finally tell me why I'm such a likely Mafia? Just for pushing your lynch Day 1? And what's your opinion on ShiaoPi (I know heist is 100% Mafia for you without much reasoning whatsoever...)? I still don't think you're anyhow "confirmed town" based on your stance toward suki... Just less likely Mafia than otherwise. And things like leaving these unhelpful one liners everywhere aren't helping you. austinmcc, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi, heist, where have you all been? Most of Day 3 has already passed and you haven't posted at all. Get posting before the deadline! I'll have to be offline for a while, but I can check the thread irregularly from my phone, so I should somehow be able to post for today. I'll be back home a couple of hours before the deadline. | ||
|
zelblade
Australia901 Posts
Heist Xatalos Unforgiven_ve Miltonkram 4 votes needed to lynch. Deadline is in approx 13 hours from the time of this post. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'm getting some sleep. We've got 3 out of 7 people actually posting at this point. Pretty pathetic. Give me something to come back to town. | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
| ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
I have already outlined in earlier posts how he feels kind of townie to me, so I will not repeat myself here, in regards of scumminess there are several things right now which feel a little bit off. -Lack of activity (weak one I admit it ) -The last post from him with his vote on Vivax, seems a bit like sheeping to me or just OMGUS. Regarding the voting pattern I would not say he is the scummiest. Xatalos is way more reluctant to vote suki.. + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline. I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer. ##Unvote ##Vote Suki This is his votepost and recheck the thread he votes after Heist switches from unforgiven to suki. The lynch on suki is already ensured. So his vote does not make any sense. Even if golden had popped in in the last second there was no way for him to change the outcome of the vote. Furthermore Xatalos was the first to jump on the Unforgiven Suspicions. Conclusively I would not support a heist lynch, the strongest argument seems to be the voting pattern, but Xatalos is way more fishy in that regard. I would advocate a lynch on Xatalos instead, going to outline my thoughts in the next post. | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
I'll be going through his play chronologically: Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work. Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman. Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty. Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player. sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you. His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch. His next vote is on ange777: On June 01 2012 21:10 Xatalos wrote: -snip- We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt. I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered. -snipped- About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all. I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum. After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following: On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can. He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven. Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven: On June 02 2012 04:59 Xatalos wrote: You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially. ##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned. Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki. He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important: On June 02 2012 05:46 Xatalos wrote: I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that. Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else. He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch. In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again: On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: -snipped-- I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer. ##Unvote ##Vote Suki By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night 1 The only remarkable post is this one: On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped- All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it. I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing. He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 2 He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist. On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote: --snipped-- Heist Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post: The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that? Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier. I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that. ##Vote Heist I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town... He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer: On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote: --snipped--- I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts. What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general. He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then? On June 04 2012 02:57 Xatalos wrote: Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious. You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better? This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting. I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go? He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following: On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote: It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing: 1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...). Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point. ##Unvote ##Vote Vivax His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Night 2 He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 3 He immediately drops the vote on heist. As in defense to Milton's suspicions he keeps up this single line of defense against his filler/wishy-washy. On June 07 2012 06:00 Xatalos wrote: Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways  What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today? I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia. ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Heist I came into today thinking I'd be voting heist, like right off the bat. Heist or vivax scum, vivax not, heist is, done. But I looked over the thread and I looked over filters today and I'm feeling less confident about that. Bits that I think make him look townie: On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote: This post felt incredibly patronizing. It seemed a little disconnected from the game, like heist walked unforgiven outside the game, sat him down, gave him a talking to, and then they both came back in. Did this post strike anyone else as odd? I thought it kind of called attention to heist, but if nobody else thought this looked strange then perhaps not.@Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this. On June 02 2012 02:00 heist wrote: When you guys had two lurkers, ange and superouman, heist was the player most interested in superouman. I don't read this as scummy. If you've got two lurkers, and everyone wants to jump on one, why keep bringing up the other? Yes, ange returned and stopped lurking, but there was no way to know that. I just don't see the reason for scum heist to poke around about superouman instead of pushing ange.It just concerned me that with ALL this talk about lurking almost no one even mentions Superouman. I definitely do favor a lynch. So if it comes down to it I will change my vote to enforce a lynch, but I'd like to give Ange77 some time to defend himself. On June 02 2012 05:37 heist wrote: I don't know how suki and ange fit together in Unforgiven's mind, but heist called him out on this. If I'm mafia here, don't I want to encourage this? Either suki gets lynched and then I can push ange, or at some point ange gets lynched (and flips green) and now I've set suki up to look more green. The counterargument here is that ange and suki being teammates is so nonsensical to me that I don't think a mafia member could actually run with and push that idea.You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What??? Unforgiven Except for suki's early vote, unforgiven is still looking scummy. He keeps throwing out entirely unsubstantiated statements, and is really, really pushing the idea that he was right. He responds to requests to actually explain himself with: On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious Which I really don't like. And the more I read his filter, the more I dislike it. I find the constant reinforcement of the suki lynch to be especially troubling -- + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 06:19 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think? On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs On June 02 2012 09:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: may i remind you, pleading for votes to get a mafia(roleblocker) at D1, read my last post, and make a better one please, it worked one time, why not twice ;D Going to read some other filters and read this Xatalos case. | ||
|
Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 07 2012 20:18 ShiaoPi wrote: First of regarding my opinion on heist: I have already outlined in earlier posts how he feels kind of townie to me, so I will not repeat myself here, in regards of scumminess there are several things right now which feel a little bit off. -Lack of activity (weak one I admit it ) -The last post from him with his vote on Vivax, seems a bit like sheeping to me or just OMGUS. Regarding the voting pattern I would not say he is the scummiest. Xatalos is way more reluctant to vote suki.. + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline. I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer. ##Unvote ##Vote Suki This is his votepost and recheck the thread he votes after Heist switches from unforgiven to suki. The lynch on suki is already ensured. So his vote does not make any sense. Even if golden had popped in in the last second there was no way for him to change the outcome of the vote. Furthermore Xatalos was the first to jump on the Unforgiven Suspicions. Conclusively I would not support a heist lynch, the strongest argument seems to be the voting pattern, but Xatalos is way more fishy in that regard. I would advocate a lynch on Xatalos instead, going to outline my thoughts in the next post. I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this. 1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki. You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems. | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki. You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.[/QUOTE] 1) Heist said the same thing, why is his vote-switch scummier than yours? 2) Possible as timestamps are not far apart 3) Heist was actually one of the few who did not feel like pushing ange777 immediately, he was not part of the bandwagon on her, so if he is scum why did he stay out of it? Yes, I admit I have a pretty sure townie read on him (besides his lack of activity since day 3) and therefore I am not afraid to defend him against accusations. IF he is scum like you are claiming, well sucks for me and my reading abilities then. | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
| ||
|
Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 07 2012 21:54 ShiaoPi wrote: I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this. 1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki. You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems. 1) Heist said the same thing, why is his vote-switch scummier than yours? 2) Possible as timestamps are not far apart 3) Heist was actually one of the few who did not feel like pushing ange777 immediately, he was not part of the bandwagon on her, so if he is scum why did he stay out of it? Yes, I admit I have a pretty sure townie read on him (besides his lack of activity since day 3) and therefore I am not afraid to defend him against accusations. IF he is scum like you are claiming, well sucks for me and my reading abilities then.[/QUOTE] 1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time. 2) Yep... 3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia? I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays... | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On June 07 2012 22:32 Xatalos wrote: 1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time. 2) Yep... 3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia? I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays... 1) Heist's case mainly rests on the voting issue, his stance on suki has been pretty solid all the time, defending him. Now you cite his emotional play as reason, but why did you discard it earlier? Same thing with the bussing comment. On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote: It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well. I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts. What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general. 3)You could push both as both would be a mislynch in scum's favor. Yes, why would mafia-Xatalos do it if mafia-heist is doing it??? You are measuring with different scales regarding yourself and heist. I do not even understand your last sentence. How would you need to read my case against you for my sake? But yeah I am waiting for your response | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
| ||
|
Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
A) Eishi_Ki has been posting less and less, so it's looking pretty likely that he will be modkilled at the deadline -> 4 town left. B) Heist votes for me at the last minute to avoid a modkill. C) A mislynch (me) now -> 3 town left. C) Mafia night kill -> 2 town left. D) 2 Mafia vs 2 town -> Mafia has achieved its win condition. So: ShiaoPi trying to desperately switch the lynch from heist to me isn't all that surprising, after all. This day will basically already decide the game one way or another. Lynching heist will lead to town victory, a mislynch will lead to certain Mafia victory. There's just no way we can afford a mislynch now. Before going into the main case, just some comments to ShiaoPi's latest attack: 1) heist's stance on suki has definitely not been solid. Now you're just twisting facts. Go read sciberbia's filter where he nicely collected the evicence on this. I conceded earlier that heist's excessive usage of capslock there wasn't a good argument, since he did that a lot in other posts, but you should definitely see *some* kind of a panic in his style of posting there. Same with the bussing comment, I conceded that it wasn't the best argument, but still held some weight. 3) You say doing something would be stupid for a Mafia heist, but when I do something equally stupid for a Mafia Xatalos, it suddenly doesn't count? Just read my filter again - without confirmation bias - and you'll see that my play makes very little sense as Mafia. Much, much less than for heist. Although I doubt that's really relevant to your interests anyway... Now, into the main case... 1) "Filler/moderating content", as you put it, can be a sign of Mafia wanting to look helpful. It can also be a sign of a townie who has A) a lot of time in his hands and B) not enough solid reads to post 100% purely about them. You seem to ignore that option, for some reason... Just look at my history. I have a TON of "filler/moderating content" when I play town. Not so much when I play Mafia. 2) I don't see how it's scummy to suspect a suspicious player, then start looking elsewhere when your suspicions are reduced somewhat. It would actually be scummy to continue tunneling a player while he starts showing signs of towniness. 3) I didn't really have a solid Mafia read at that point, and most people wanted to just lynch a lurker (yourself included - I mean o.Golden_ne), I was more supportive of lynching the more cautious and lurky lurker (Ange777) over the merely frustrating lurker (Superouman). 4) If you consider that as a "soft" (more like pretty clear IMO) defense of suki, then your (o.Golden_ne's) vague defense of suki earlier was softer than soft, and massively more suspicious. Still you keep dismissing that post and claiming it shouldn't be considered while analyzing yourself, the replacement. 5) suki was away for the unfolding of the lynch (while Unforgiven_ve was not), but she had posted a lot of well thought-out posts with both real opinions and reasoning - while Unforgiven_ve had just posted pretty much weird stuff without reasoning to back up his opinions. Although Unforgiven_ve was online at that moment and suki was not, I considered suki to truthfully be the more active and helpful poster of these two (in hindsight, she was Mafia, but we're talking about that moment in time). 6) I already mentioned that as I was typing my vote, the majority hadn't yet been attained, but heist ninja'd me to probably try and buy some "credibility" over me. But in the end, it doesn't really matter who voted first... The vote was already settled. We both had mentioned earlier that we were pro-lynch and would consolidate to prevent a no-lynch, so a no-lynch wasn't going to happen anyway. 7) You continue to bash me for "sheeping" arguments, but if there's a good argument already mentioned by another (now dead) player, why shouldn't I also take it into consideration while deciding my vote? As is said: every idea has already been invented at some point in history, but there's nothing wrong with reusing old ideas. And I actually did add my own observations: the emotionality/hastiness (although proven wrong), the panic, the bussing comment... 8) How come those 4 points were already addressed before...? Considering that I focused solely on Vivax's latest "defense" post and analyzed it. Nobody else had yet even mentioned that post. I don't get this part of your case. I switched to Vivax because his defense seemed scummy and heist's defense seemed more townish at the time. Besides, if I was Mafia, I should have just retained my vote on heist... The majority of players wanted to lynch Vivax anyway, so my vote didn't change the end result at all. It would have also looked better for me to be on the "right" side of the lynch (like sciberbia and Unforgiven_ve) as opposed to voting for the mislynch. If I was Mafia, my behaviour wouldn't make any sense during Day 2. 9) Actually, this is my third game, so you should go read my two previous games. My play in this game has been similar to my previous game (town), and very different from my first game (Mafia). That should be telling already. I don't know how my play is non-committal considering my hard stances of heist+you being the remaining Mafia team and my high town reads of several players during the game (Cattivik/Vivax, sciberbia, Ange777/austinmcc...). | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Besides the bussing comment (and it can be read both ways) heist's stance has simply been I am not sure that suki will flip red as he seems townie to him. But it remains that you and heist have been close in opinion on day1 and therefore you are still weighing differently. 1) We won't be able to discuss on that point it seems, I am not budging from my point you are not from yours. 2) What is scummy is how easily you seem to be swayed from your own opinion 3) Was not a critique against you 4) A "clear" defense would have been what Vivax had done. So I considered yours soft. Semantics really. We already discussed Golden's post on suki. I am of the opinion take it with a grain of salt and you are of the opinion to take it for 100%. We can't argue on that anymore. Point remains we both defended suki. 5) Point remains, you tried to get unforgiven lynched instead of suki 6) Timeline remains as it is, I already acknowledged the possibility of being ninja'ed but it is not my main argument anyway. 7) I am bashing you for "sheeping" since you have never contributed your own reasoning on why somebody should have been lynched. I agree there is nothing wrong with taking arguments from other players but why is there none from your own side? Because you are not really actively scumhunting anyway? That's my conclusion from it. 8) Nobody commented on that defense post, but the "points" you made out from it where all already mentioned, it was just a recurring pattern in Vivax' play. If you are mafia your behaviour makes sense as I outlined it. You simply do not care who gets mislynched as long as you can get a mislynch, so you naturally go with the mood of the thread which was lynch Vivax instead of heist. 9) I meant non-comittal in ways of not pushing your own reads always piggybacking on someone else's opinion. Sharing town-reads is not pushing a case. And it can be interpreted ambigious as well. Why am I still doing such an effort in this game anyway? Nobody seems to care anymore -_- | ||
|
ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
| ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Every time I read this game. And I mean Every. Single. Time. I find Unforgiven scummy. - He posts nothing but policy talk and babble for the first half of D1 - He writes his bit on Suki. Which is this - + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: suki: his first post is about the NL d1 theme, and asking Miltonkram about his fst vote. His 3rd post is some semi-analysis about the people the town is talking about and to close his post he throws a vote against me, before make it clear "it may change"...then a couple more post naming Cattivik, Superouman and me. That's it...he nevers really pressure someone, playing it really safe, his filter is short, he's just taunting Cattivik in hopes of preparing a Day 2 candidate. For now on: ##Vote suki but it may change uh?! - He proceeds to play incredibly scummy
- Cautions D1 about how mafia will lurk and then come back for the final hours of the day. What does he do D2? Lurks, then comes back in the final minutes to post this: On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts and screams mafia for me.
-Constantly, at the end of a bunch of his posts, asks for people to ask him anything if they don't understand something.+ Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I can get online form my phone, if anyone wants to ask something please make a precise question and i'll try to answer it. On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: As always, if anyone has any question please ask On June 02 2012 05:33 Unforgiven_ve wrote: never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny?? Really? in every post i say if you have questions just ask! On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious Apart from his Suki "case" and vote, I don't see anything pro-town coming from him. Moreover, I see him harping on the single pro-town thing he's done at every corner. I cannot rationalize how this is town play. I will be voting Unforgiven. Does anyone think he's down anything pro-town apart from poorly push Suki at the start? ##Vote: Unforgiven | ||
| ||
