EPTIf we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts?
Newbie Mini XV - Page 29
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 08 2012 05:18 Miltonkram wrote: Was away for a bit. If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts? I agree fully. If we just no-lynch and heist is Mafia waiting for his time to vote, it's GG no matter what. If neither of them is coming back, there's still no harm in lynching heist. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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heist
United States720 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Why not? Lynch all lurkers is a policy. The only reason I can see is that you're afraid of how he'll flip. @ austinmcc If heist is scum then we're pretty much set on ShiaoPi being scum. Please vote for heist. If Eishi_Ki is town like I think he is, then our only hope of winning this game is by ensuring a heist lynch. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On June 08 2012 05:50 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi Why not? Lynch all lurkers is a policy. The only reason I can see is that you're afraid of how he'll flip. On June 08 2012 05:47 ShiaoPi wrote: And if we want to shot into the dark (aka the lurkers) go with eishi...he was soft-defended by suki and has been lurking all game long. Seriously... | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
If both heist/eishi are town, we lose. If ONE is town, we either lynch scum, mislynch and lose, or no lynch. It would take every single town vote on the non-lurking scum in order to lynch. Shiao doesn't think heist is scum. I still don't think heist is scum (Again, I need something beyond the vote and the bussing comment). So if one of the lurkers is mafia, either one of us gets convinced at the 11th hour or else we have to lynch someone other than heist. If NEITHER is town, then we win if they both stay inactive. That's why I want to no lynch right now. IF both are inactive, then the only situation in which we should lynch is if we are absolutely sure about who the non-lurking mafia is. So you need to convince shiao or i. Otherwise, it would have to be non-heist. OR we can no-lynch, because then we lose 1 mafia/1 town to inactivity and 1 to NK. We're then 3/1 tomorrow and can pull it off. Unless we're 10000000% sure who the mafia are, a no lynch is the best option IF we don't get activity. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (gotta walk dogs, back in 15-20). We cannot win if both lurkers town. We can only win if both lurkers mafia. We can win with a correct lynch OR a no lynch is it's 1/1. I would rather have the extra day to be more sure. Things that mess up that analysis - if we're in the medic/cop version. In which case ...I dunno. The optimal play would be something like cop claiming, medic not claiming, and hoping a medic save could get us another day in some cases? Or if either one returns/doesn't get modkilled. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Heist is back at the most convenient possible time for scum. Do you not see how obvious the heist + ShiaoPi scum team is right now? @ heist If you really are town and had to move, I'm sorry. You didn't really leave us much choice in this matter. My vote will not be moving from heist. He's scum. ShiaoPi's scum. | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
 OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me. @Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell. And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax). It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve. His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice: On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki. Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him. I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further. I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger. I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody. ## unvote ## Vote: Suki Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example. ##Vote: Unforgiven_ve The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
heist: unforgiven, Xatalos, MIltonkram (3) Xatalos: ShiaoPi (1) unforgiven: austin, heist (2) Am I correct? Still a sucky no-lynch -.- | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Votecount so far: Xatalos ( 1 ): ShiaoPi, unforgiven_ve ( 2 ): austinmcc, heist heist ( 3 ): Xatalos, unforgiven_ve, Miltonkram It's Day3. With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch! About 50 minutes left to vote, voting is mandatory! People who haven't voted yet (1): Eishi_Ki Deadline is 22:30 GMT (+00:00) Edit: Got ninja'ed but mine is official! | ||
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heist
United States720 Posts
On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts and screams mafia for me. I've bolded the important statement. "They want me to be alive to get more people confused." Is this something a townie would say? What are you trying to imply here? What you are essentially admitting is that you are purposefully following the wrong lead, directing town to the wrong target. If you are town, why are you making remarks that keeping yourself alive will only lead to town confusion? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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