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On November 28 2012 22:23 strongandbig wrote:
Now, phagga I have a couple of questions for you:
1. As far as I can tell, you changed your mind on your scumread on goodkarma because of the timing of his vote on Sandroba. Could you update that read for us? Given that Sandroba never really responded to Syllo's case or made a real effort to not get himself lynched, I'm hesitant to draw any conclusions from who voted for him when. It's definitely possible that his teammates knew he wasn't going to try very hard, and started bussing him very early. So if you ignore gk's vote on sandro, do you still think he's town or do you want to lynch him again.
2. You said you object to hopeless being in the party. do you think he's scum? What do you think of my stuff on his behavior since the check on him and acro?
3. What is kitaman's alignment and why do you think that?
1. After his behaviour today I'm rather leaning scum on him again. Reason is that his behaviour was rather disruptive imho, and that is rather scum motivated. Also, z-boson made me rethink the whole bussing-situation, and I don't feel as sure about my conclusion from last time anymore. So, leaning scum on GK.
Pre-Edit: What also really bothered me was that GK was posting this huge list with 11 people on it. That's half of the remaining player base. The problem is, people are slightly bored in this game, they try too hard to find scum and start to misinterpret situations because of confirmation bias. The want to find scum so hard that they scum where none is. Syllo actually pointed this out a few pages ago, and took this as a reason to take a break IIRC.
Looking at GKs list from that point of view shows how counterproductive it is to towns interest. You don't want half of the town chasing the other half of the town. You want people trying to make proper cases of one or two other people, and show how the actions of their suspects fit a mafia agenda (or how they don't). Those cases don't have to be long, but they should have a clear focus and a proper analysis. Then others can discuss it and agree or disagree, which will lead most of the times on a reasonable result. GKs list mainly spreads distrust and is therefore counterproductive.
2. I remember going over Hopeless' filter a few days ago and setting him null on my list. Then Hope came up with this strange theorie about what if Toad flips town, followed by TC saying that Acro and Hope are of opposite alignement. Then he wanted to be part of the party to show that he is town, which was a red flag for me. Since then he is marked as scum.
Regarding your post, I like the point about his sentence that he will not bring any last minute shenanigans. I mean, this is what everyone expects, why does he feel he has to announce this? seems like he is missing a townie mindest.
The "Bring it, bitches" is interesting because he first takes a defensive stance in his answers to TCs case, but then tries to look aggressive with that last sentence. It does not seem authentic, but I don't think it's alignement indicative.
3. I'm running out of time  I want to go through Kita's filter again, I don't like to just make comments about a person without some facts behind it. I hope to give you answer until the deadline.
Which reminds me, I haven't voted yet. BRB with vote.
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On November 29 2012 01:29 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 01:20 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 29 2012 01:16 iamperfection wrote:
why does everybody's abilities sound overly complicated and conditional when compared to mine? My actual ability isn't complicated, I was just searching for things that didn't exist. so what made you think their secondary conditions the wording?
qué?
I'm in a greymist game with an unknown secondary ability and the knowledge that I'm an explorer. I extrapolated from there.
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Voting Dieno. I doubt him being party leader will repair his sword, but it's worth a shot. Also, I'm ok with his team.
##Vote Dienosore
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Okay. To address some of the concerns brought up yesterday:
On November 28 2012 20:32 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 06:37 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 06:25 Dienosore wrote:On November 28 2012 06:11 Promethelax wrote:On November 28 2012 06:09 Dienosore wrote:
Fuck, I keep forgetting Oats can't be in it... I remember now that I said TheChronicler earlier, but honestly I'm open to all suggestions. well stop being open to suggestions. Scum must have some influence on this game. Get your butt in gear and make one town read on your own. Unless I hear the majority of people telling me to change my vote, I have chosen TheChronicler based on my town read. Why are you insisting that scum must have some influence? Are you perhaps threatened by the fact that you don't think your viewpoints aren't being heard or agreed on by the general populace? Enough so, that it makes you want to reinforce to the admitted new guy that scum are constantly lurking around, so you can verify to yourself that what you are doing is actually working? You should really stop making your anger at me because I just wont fucking die so obvious. So you're saying you don't trust your own reads, and consider scum (who you've gone to no lengths to spot) are automatically a non-threat? Please play some newbie games after you're done here, so a coach can teach you how to play...As for electing you leader I've been thinking that having a heavily HP-damaged town get a item would make him a strong mafia target, and by electing you we'd lose the item and a "confirmed town." But then I remembered that there are several "confirmed town" 10X more useful than you. It won't be an easy decision for scum to kill you, and I actually would rather have you die than them. To that end anything that could make you a stronger target than someone such as Syllo or Keir is something I'm completely for. ##Unvote
##Vote: DeinoHowever incompetent I think you are, I also have a town read on TC, and am confident that the party you've proposed will succeed. You have some nerve. I have not seen a single case of you this game, your filter is almost completely devoid of any scumhunting, and you go and lecture dieno on how to play? Dieno achieved something in this game that you have not yet done, he has established himself as town. That is already worth a lot for town. You may not agree with his methods of doing it, but he was one of the fastest established townies in this game. But you come in the thread regularly and have nothing better to do than to mock him. Do you think this is creating the kind of town atmosphere we need to win this game? What is the benefit for town of you calling him incompetent, bad and mocking his playstile? I don't see one. Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 08:51 goodkarma wrote:
I'll make a definitive case on you yet today. Just don't lurk too hard in the meantime. Ah, finally you make a case! Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 09:57 goodkarma wrote:
My strongandbig read was in fact in large part due to activity, in addition to the incomplete cases / reads he was bringing up. I was unaware, however, of the severe lack of internet he was experiencing, and will back off of him for now...
In its place I provide a mafia (the game) favorite, a scum suspect shortlist:
1) Iamp - I have a good "gut feel" about this guy I guess you could say. But he still has yet to contribute anything meaningful, which earns him a spot here. Would be willing to give him more time to see if his roleclaim checks out.
2) VE - Shoot him dead. I actually think he might be more likely to be town than scum given his enthusiasm for playing scum. But if an elimination-based approach for finding scum is to work, he has to go. He has not posted enough to make a meaningful read...
3) phagga - Need to reread his filter at some point (but not something I'm focusing on today). He has been pro-town in his contributions, but I can't help but feel he is also "playing it safe" and doing what he can to fly under the radar...
4) Adam - lurker who might need to be shot too.
5) Kita - I'm inclined to believe Marv's read of 3rd party
6) Cave - This guy won't be figured out without getting vigi killed. Shoot first, ask questions later...
7) Z-boson - From my experience with him, he likes to play pretty safe as scum, whereas as town he is rather reckless to the point of being pretty easy to mislynch. He definitely is making his own reads and contributing to thread, but all his reads I would call "safe" ones in that he is targeting almost exclusively lurkers... Null read atm, even after looking into filter.
8) Prox - Tbh I don't know what to do with him. Syllo's input is definitely appreciated, but I don't see him as a strong scum read (closer to null...).
9) Strong - I had a strong scum read based both off meta and on filter. However, with meta differences explained, I'm inclined to give him more of a chance to establish himself as town before coming to conclusions.
10) Toad - Scum
11) Hopeless (maybe) - clearly anti-town, but I'm still not convinced that he's scum. Would even go so far as to say slight town read... Oh noes, you couldn't be arsed to make a case, instead you throw out this worthless list where you throw some dirt around with barely any explanation. Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 10:25 goodkarma wrote:
Correction: I'm a good town player when I don't drink while playing. I'm going to take a break from thread, and play damage control tomorrow. Like I care. If you are too drunk to play, don't play. If you play, I don't care about your state, i will hold you responsible for your actions.
Okay, regarding the first part (Dieno):
I meant everything I said there. And while there was OMGUS language in there, OMGUS was a motivating factor of my decision, and in a strictly logical way. Maybe if you were to take a step back and recognize that this is not a standard game, you would come to understand that we have a crapton of "confirmed town" at our disposal atm.
This is definitely not something you would see in your average game. As scum, you obviously are going to choose to shoot the best player of the "confirmed town," as in the guy who is most likely to spot who's scum. But what if I told you there was a way to keep our best townies alive by throwing a mouth-drooling "confirmed townie" in front of a bus?
I'd personally be all for it, and if you took a second to actually consider the merits of what I said instead of go into full-on OMGUS mode, you should be too.
For all we know Dieno could one-shot Lavos with the Masamune. Scum will have to actually seriously consider shooting him. I would propose that Dieno should fake-claim he got the Masamune in the case that he doesn't as it could draw fire away from the "confirmed town" we need to help us solve this game.
Regarding my strongandbig "case" and my list:
I already described why I strongly felt that strongandbig was scum, and why after some consideration I determined my read was off. As for my list, you could argue that I made twenty-two cases there. My list shows my read on everyone left in the game.
The actual list shows where I feel the scum reside, while everyone not on the list I have pegged as town. Again, you go into full-on OMGUS mode without considering the merits of what I contribute. In this game establishing town is just as important (if not moreso considering the scarcity of lynch days) as finding who's scum. Lists are normally bad, but in this specific game I believe it's worth doing.
Regarding "drunk play":
I would not consider myself drunk yesterday. I would simply say a bit of alcohol led me to be less inhibited than I usually am. And here is how it affected my play: I did not edit my writings as I usually do. There is a reason why some of my posts come off as heavily edited, to the point where some suspect I've had help in some kind of QT to construct them.: I heavily edit my posts, as both town and scum. Yesterday, I didn't really edit anything and spit out the first thing that came to mind onto paper.
I spent a little time looking at strongandbig's filter, got excited, and jumped the gun in making a case when I didn't take the time I needed to to consider if it had any merit.
Similarly, the comment about VE was me thinking whether I could in any way determine he was town or scum, making some half-baked conclusions, then deciding he was a lurker, and finally thinking I wanted to shoot lurkers and VE was the lurkiest of them all... Didn't take the time to put my thoughts together and conclude if he was even a scummy lurker, or take time to consider we have very limited resources for removing players, just considered if removing him out of the game would make it easier for me to solve we should shoot him ASAP.
And lastly:
You certainly should hold me accountable for everything I post. But it is my hope that with this post it becomes clear where I was coming from with what I posted yesterday.
With the exceptions of VE, I stand by the list I made. Strong is not the strong scumread I originally had yesterday, after reconsidering the circumstances, as I stated later yesterday. CaveJohnson and Adam remain at the top of the list for who I'd recommend we shoot. I consider them to be scummy lurkers.
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Actually that should hopefully cover just about everything brought up yesterday.
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I still want you to outline for me how you have a town read on risk.nuke.
Actually point to stuff in his filter, reason it out so I can follow your line of thinking.
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@Goodkarma, please explain what is scummy on Adams and Caves behaviour?
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On November 28 2012 17:39 syllogism wrote:
Drazerk you are completely worthless as always
I've decided for now that Prom's claim is plausible, even if the timing, execution and subsequent behavior are suspicious. The initial claim was compeltely ridiculous and anyone who believed such a role is likely to be in the game is naive. What he claimed at first was a role that could not only make a person completely invulnerable, but it also functioned as a semi-watcher role; a player of any alignment that gets roleblocked wouldn't know the source and would be forced to claim. Now that we know roleblock does not prevent factional KP (and I consider it likely that there is non-role based mafia factional KP) and that he can't always use it every cycle, it is more believable. Moreover, the claim is a bit too complicated and too easily veribiable to be a sane mafia claim (his sanity is still in question, however).
The fact he initially refused to claim his other ability or flavor and decided to attack and suspect a near confirmed town still doesn't make sense. I was also suspicious of sandroba immediately confirming that he visited me, instead of showing skepticism towards Prom's claim.
yeah, if you want to know about how I safe claim as mafia I BC'd vet in my only late game scum game. I play it safe as scum. My role is a semi-watcher role and I plan on continuing to use it that way in the future.
Claiming the other abilities and flavour just didn't benefit town in any way. I don't see why you think that is wierd and I'll attack anyone who seems scummy to me. I don't really care how close to confirmed town you are; you aren't confirmed and I believe you would play this out exactly the same as scum. The fact that no one else agrees with my paranoia means that I don't have to care and neither do you since nothing will come of it.
On November 28 2012 10:23 goodkarma wrote:
@VE:
How the hell was I supposed to know you were actually coming back to post more than one-liners? Saying and doing are two very different things...
Now that you've decided to show up, yeah. Let's not shoot you.
Cave and Adam are people I stand by vigi shooting though.
I don't care about the other stuff you were saying (though some of it was scummy) but this is scummy as shit. We should be shooting the confirmed scum since we have no idea about lynches. Kill Toad.
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How in the blazes do you have a town read on me? I claimed survivor..
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On November 29 2012 02:09 phagga wrote:
@Goodkarma, please explain what is scummy on Adams and Caves behaviour?
In the case of CaveJohnson:
This is a guy who has not contributed in this game, but maintains some degree of activity by prolifically spamming chat with substanceless one-liners. He fakeclaims abilities, and in general is anti-town. From my understanding from what others have said, he does this as both town and scum. I have in my notes two quotes that I found especially troubling:
"Syllo has taken himself out of the running and we should respect that.": Scum-motivated for obvious reasons.
"my intention is to survive to endgame...": Town should not be worried about this...
Regarding Adam:
His posts come off as more "pro-town," but looking at what substance his comments bring the main thing I got was that he is pre-occupied tunneling Z-Boson for making a poor case on him. And from what I've seen his activity is not going to pick up ever. He is far in second place compared to CaveJohnson for a good vigi target, but still is in the back of my mind as a potential scum trying to blend in.
However, while we're on this topic it would be very helpful if Adam (or someone else) could provide some links to some of his games. I don't know Adam's meta, so having some insight into it could be helpful in getting a better read on him.
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Acro: who are you talking to? I didn't call you town (recently...) and I don't see it from GK or Phag here. Can you show me what I'm missing?
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On November 29 2012 02:18 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 17:39 syllogism wrote:
Drazerk you are completely worthless as always
I've decided for now that Prom's claim is plausible, even if the timing, execution and subsequent behavior are suspicious. The initial claim was compeltely ridiculous and anyone who believed such a role is likely to be in the game is naive. What he claimed at first was a role that could not only make a person completely invulnerable, but it also functioned as a semi-watcher role; a player of any alignment that gets roleblocked wouldn't know the source and would be forced to claim. Now that we know roleblock does not prevent factional KP (and I consider it likely that there is non-role based mafia factional KP) and that he can't always use it every cycle, it is more believable. Moreover, the claim is a bit too complicated and too easily veribiable to be a sane mafia claim (his sanity is still in question, however).
The fact he initially refused to claim his other ability or flavor and decided to attack and suspect a near confirmed town still doesn't make sense. I was also suspicious of sandroba immediately confirming that he visited me, instead of showing skepticism towards Prom's claim. yeah, if you want to know about how I safe claim as mafia I BC'd vet in my only late game scum game. I play it safe as scum. My role is a semi-watcher role and I plan on continuing to use it that way in the future. Claiming the other abilities and flavour just didn't benefit town in any way. I don't see why you think that is wierd and I'll attack anyone who seems scummy to me. I don't really care how close to confirmed town you are; you aren't confirmed and I believe you would play this out exactly the same as scum. The fact that no one else agrees with my paranoia means that I don't have to care and neither do you since nothing will come of it. Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 10:23 goodkarma wrote:
@VE:
How the hell was I supposed to know you were actually coming back to post more than one-liners? Saying and doing are two very different things...
Now that you've decided to show up, yeah. Let's not shoot you.
Cave and Adam are people I stand by vigi shooting though. I don't care about the other stuff you were saying (though some of it was scummy) but this is scummy as shit. We should be shooting the confirmed scum since we have no idea about lynches. Kill Toad.
Given the HP mechanic this game, and the knowledge that we most likely won't be able to kill a player until several cycles later, I still firmly believe that we will have a chance to lynch Toad before he will have died from vigi shots even if every vigi were to focus fire him.
And that will mean that all our focus on him will have been wasted... This is why I still am against vigi shooting him.
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On November 29 2012 02:39 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 02:09 phagga wrote:
@Goodkarma, please explain what is scummy on Adams and Caves behaviour? In the case of CaveJohnson:This is a guy who has not contributed in this game, but maintains some degree of activity by prolifically spamming chat with substanceless one-liners. He fakeclaims abilities, and in general is anti-town. From my understanding from what others have said, he does this as both town and scum. I have in my notes two quotes that I found especially troubling: "Syllo has taken himself out of the running and we should respect that.": Scum-motivated for obvious reasons. "my intention is to survive to endgame...": Town should not be worried about this... Regarding Adam:His posts come off as more "pro-town," but looking at what substance his comments bring the main thing I got was that he is pre-occupied tunneling Z-Boson for making a poor case on him. And from what I've seen his activity is not going to pick up ever. He is far in second place compared to CaveJohnson for a good vigi target, but still is in the back of my mind as a potential scum trying to blend in. However, while we're on this topic it would be very helpful if Adam (or someone else) could provide some links to some of his games. I don't know Adam's meta, so having some insight into it could be helpful in getting a better read on him.
On Adam you can check the recently ended WLIIA mafia for his town meta.
You are pointing at two well known null players. Adam always lurks and Draz always always always does weird shit.
Why do you want our viggies not hitting confirmed scum?
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-sniped-
if we don't get a lynch though we need to start that focus fire earlier. How confidant are you that we will get a lynch? (hint: I'm not at all)
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On November 29 2012 02:21 Acrofales wrote:
How in the blazes do you have a town read on me? I claimed survivor..
I believe you when you say you're third party. I had you tabbed in my mind as neither scum nor a threat to town, and that's why I didn't bother including you...
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On November 29 2012 02:45 Promethelax wrote:
-sniped-
if we don't get a lynch though we need to start that focus fire earlier. How confidant are you that we will get a lynch? (hint: I'm not at all)
From the damage reports, I'm under the impression town has roughly 150 damage / turn at its disposal.
From the flips, however, 600 HP seems to be a reasonable assumption for the amount of HP Toad has. (Following the mechanics of the actual game, I'd say he can't have any more than 999.) As such, I'd expect it to take at least 3-4 turns to kill him. And I strongly believe we'll have a chance to lynch within 1-2 turns.
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Brunei Darussalam622 Posts
On November 29 2012 02:59 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 02:45 Promethelax wrote:
-sniped-
if we don't get a lynch though we need to start that focus fire earlier. How confidant are you that we will get a lynch? (hint: I'm not at all) From the damage reports, I'm under the impression town has roughly 150 damage / turn at its disposal. From the flips, however, 600 HP seems to be a reasonable assumption for the amount of HP Toad has. (Following the mechanics of the actual game, I'd say he can't have any more than 999.) As such, I'd expect it to take at least 3-4 turns to kill him. And I strongly believe we'll have a chance to lynch within 1-2 turns.
What?
how can you possibly say for sure how much kp the town has unless you subtract mafia and 3p damage first? The only people with that kind of knowledge are mafia and 3p trolol
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On November 29 2012 02:59 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 02:45 Promethelax wrote:
-sniped-
if we don't get a lynch though we need to start that focus fire earlier. How confidant are you that we will get a lynch? (hint: I'm not at all) From the damage reports, I'm under the impression town has roughly 150 damage / turn at its disposal. From the flips, however, 600 HP seems to be a reasonable assumption for the amount of HP Toad has. (Following the mechanics of the actual game, I'd say he can't have any more than 999.) As such, I'd expect it to take at least 3-4 turns to kill him. And I strongly believe we'll have a chance to lynch within 1-2 turns.
so what is mafia kp? Wanna share the things you know?
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On November 29 2012 03:05 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 02:59 goodkarma wrote:On November 29 2012 02:45 Promethelax wrote:
-sniped-
if we don't get a lynch though we need to start that focus fire earlier. How confidant are you that we will get a lynch? (hint: I'm not at all) From the damage reports, I'm under the impression town has roughly 150 damage / turn at its disposal. From the flips, however, 600 HP seems to be a reasonable assumption for the amount of HP Toad has. (Following the mechanics of the actual game, I'd say he can't have any more than 999.) As such, I'd expect it to take at least 3-4 turns to kill him. And I strongly believe we'll have a chance to lynch within 1-2 turns. so what is mafia kp? Wanna share the things you know?
How on earth would I know? There's a very clear divide between which people mafia is likely to shoot and which people town is likely to shoot. If you were to go to the damage report layed out by Dieno and do basic math, you'd come to a similar conclusion.
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Just know that scum killed marv in a single night when he had 550 hp.
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EPT
