United States22154 Posts
An in depth, detailed analysis of DropBear
The gig is up, I'm bringing down DropBear. The mafia made a critical mistake letting me live this long because I was "lurking". I'm a wolf, and I'm bringing down this bear.
Lets take it from the top. A quick search shows that our good friend, the Murderous Bear, has all of 43 posts. Through a game that has hit well over 150 pages. Compare that to mafia XXXIX, where he had well over 200 posts. That by itself is a significant change in posting, one which is difficult to explain.
"But Mr.Wolf" I hear you murmur "Thats, Meta, we aren't allowed to use meta"
Fine, I agree, let us for a moment disregard the fact that our good friend is posting *far* less than he did as a productive member of the town. And lets not even take into consideration the high probability that a Paranoid Gun Owner role would land in the hands of the mafia team, as that too is fruitless speculation.
Let us instead take a close, scrutinizing look at all 43 of his posts, after all mayhaps he has decided to play like Ver and only bust out huge useful posts, to sway the town. The first two are pregame spam, and can be disregarded, consider then his net number of posts to be 41.
Let us look at his Day 1 posts, shall we?
Day 1
My comments are, as usual in Bold
+ Show Spoiler +On May 31 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:Hey everyone, only just caught up. First of all tnkted why the hell have you voted for Coagulation? This needs explaining. Questioning role related stuff, he is promoting speculation on an useless topicSecond I am intrigued by Palmar. I have no idea what to think about a bro but I'll keep a record of who he speaks to. Attempted fistpumps that have been returned:GMarshal Node tnkted Attempted fistpumps that have been ignored:Amber[Light] redFF Even more useless fluff, this list serves *no* helpful purpose and only adds to the "content" of a as of yet vacuous post
BC, I like the idea of a Zodiac list but I am very surprised to see myself on it. The experience of everyone else on that list is more then ten times mine. I don't mind being on there but I'm confused as to why I am  The others are all good choices. An attempt to downplay his skill and experience, akin to the classic "i am a noob" scum tell, his insistence that he doesn't belong on the zodiac lists is an obvious attempt at dodging the pressure that those lists bring
Scumhunting time!I find the following people extremely suspicious: kitaman27
tnkted
Torte de Lini
Tackster Kita is following exactly the same pattern as XXXIX. He has not said anything at all except tell people to shut up and posting vague accusations. In games in which he has been town he contributes much more actively. tnkted is posting extremely wierdly and I would very much like an explanation for the Coag vote. Torte is reknowned for being a heavy poster and has only 3 or 4 so far. Sure he is only in his first game, but other newbies like VisceraEyes, hiro protagonist and Karshe have been up and about providing opinions and trying to help. Tackster has already been done by Meapak and I am interested in him for the same reasons. At this stage I am voting for kitaman27. He is capable of much much more than he has been contributing and is following the same pattern as last game. This part of the post *at first* seems pro-town, but in reality its as scummy as you get, its a diversification of targets, splitting town votes so that the mafia can control the lynch. A real townie would have offered one or at most two targets, but this is an obvious attempt at 1.) splitting the lynch and 2.) hedging his bets, notice that Torte is on here with three other greens, this is so that later he can point at this post and try to garner town credit. Also his attack on torte is one that can be disproved by having torte mention his post restriction, exhuming him of lurker status. This is a well designed post in the sense that it *seems* constructive, but is really a deliberate plan to hurt the town, furthermore his only real "justified" target is kita.
What a first post, huh? For those too lazy to actually go through the post itself, it basically contains 1/3 fluff, 1/3 "I am noob!" scumtell and 1/3 an attempt at splitting the town vote, while hedging his bets and attempting to appear pro-town while proposing poor targets.
His next three posts are crappy analysis on those same targets, a very concentrated attempt at diversifying the lynch, by posting these "analysis" that can be brought down to one line arguments and that did not require full posts, with full posts however DB was hoping to be able to blend in as a "tryhard townie"
Let us look at another post that piqued my interest shall we? We can call this the "association" exhibit.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 01 2011 01:52 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2011 01:25 Node wrote:
##Vote sandroba
Also, it sounds silly, but I'm pretty sure Amber is town at this point. He's said a lot with very little and is clearly trying to help us out. Ok, so you're voting because Amber's trying really hard. Sandroba is a terrible lynch. The main reason seems to be his original plan. It was against the rules but when he posted his idea it was before deconduo clarified the rules. It might not be the best plan but he's obviously trying to help. So far this actually seems like a townie post, you know the whole "bad play =/= scum" thing, he gets no town points for defending sand, as a scum love to defend townies, but he does get a logic pointHe is accused of turning quiet. Within only 2 pages of the announcement of his plan the following people told him his idea was terrible: chaos13 Eternalmisfit Rean Varpulis Palmar Mr Wiggles BloodyC0bbler GMarshal stefftastiq redFF Mataza That is a lot of negativity to swallow, why is everyone surprised that he has gone quiet? I'd pipe down too if I was told by half the town to stfu. An useless list that adds fluff to his post and a deeper justification of sand's behavior than is needed, it is once again trying to hard to seem town, after the first paragraph is when most townies would have cut their argument, with perhaps one line devoted to this, but DB needed to make his arguments look convincing. Varpulis, who tried to alter the plan is then jumped on next. He decides to "withdraw" and is immediately jumped on by kita and Palmar. Their plans might not be good ones but it doesn't make them Mafia. They are just trying to help, if poorly. Redtooth in XXXIX was an example of that. Their contributions are much larger than several players so far, even if they have gone quiet recently. Here is the gold. Read this paragraph twice, its *that* relevant. This is a preemptive defense of their mole, he was trying to head off vigilante shots before they happened, it obviously didn't work out, but its an association that is rather relevant
DropBear then has a nice little spat with kita, all about how kita is lurking just like in XXXIX, but the entire argument is based on meta. Its still an attempt at pushing lurkers, but I have to wonder why db chose kita, when there were more evident targets. That by itself fails to convict DB, so I suppose that so far its a null tell. Up until we hit the next post that is
+ Show Spoiler +On June 01 2011 11:19 DropBear wrote:
tnkted still hasn't explained his vote yet wtf? Where are you man?
Can people PLEASE stop talking about sandroba's plan its completely irrelevant now. Tackster is a much better lynch than him.
This ladies and gentlemen is what we call "I don't care who gets lynched"
1.) no mention of his number 1 suspect, kita or a justification of why he no longer cares for kita.
2.) its throws some suspicion on tnkted, drawing the town into yet another worthless discussion about odd votes.
3.) Brings up Tackster who wasn't under any real focus at the time, and diverts even more votes off the main lynch targets.
His following three posts are notable, I'll put all three of them in the same spoiler, for ease of reference
+ Show Spoiler +On June 01 2011 19:33 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2011 03:14 Palmar wrote:On June 01 2011 01:52 DropBear wrote:Varpulis, who tried to alter the plan is then jumped on next. He decides to "withdraw" and is immediately jumped on by kita and Palmar. Their plans might not be good ones but it doesn't make them Mafia. They are just trying to help, if poorly. Redtooth in XXXIX was an example of that. Their contributions are much larger than several players so far, even if they have gone quiet recently. Yo bro, I just gotta clarify this shit. I aint voting on Varpulis based on his plan, everyone can make a bad plan man. If you actually bothered to read my analysis, I'm voting for him on blatant personality change from his last game. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227186¤tpage=23#455get yo facts strait bro, I only mention the plan as supplemental to my analysis, the main reason that bitch gonna get hanged is he's acting like a pussy. Let's see it done fellas #Fistpound DropBear First of all man, sorry but I'm not going to return your offer. I am worried about what it would do. nothing really scummy about being suspicious I guess ^_^ Look at the rest of my post. It wasn't just Sandroba who was jumped on for offering a bad plan, Varpulis was as well. I'm liking the effort that you are putting in but I'm not convinced. Varpulis has been still very active and doing his best. He got timid briefly after being told he was playing poorly, so what? He's back to his normal self again now. Now theres no subtlety in this, he is brute force linking Sand and Varp, with the hope that sand will really get lynched and Varp will be cleared of all suspicion, for a while at least I would put a lot of money on both Sandroba and Varpulis being town. See, Varp, who isn't even being discussed is having credit bought for him by DB. Its a clever play, and one that will buy DB credit too when sand flips green. Very clever play, but a little too obvious.
Wiggles, what? I have to say that I strongly disagree. You are worrying me, you just seem to be jumping on the bandwagon. Throwing light suspicion on a scumbuddy so they aren't tied together later, but understating it so that theres no chance of an actual case being assembled. When I was mafia I *loved* these weak FoS, as they made cred easy to gain, just light FoS and then talk about how right you were.
Show nested quote +On June 01 2011 10:38 sinani206 wrote:On June 01 2011 07:38 GMarshal wrote:
Instead answer these questions.
4.) Of all the players with more than ten posts in the game at the moment, which seem the scummiest? 4) 10. kitaman27 acting like he was in XXXIX, where he was Mafia 12. Tackster useless theorycrafting 14. tnkted like i said above, useless 25. Torte de Lini so many posts elsewhere on TL. a purposeful lurker Nice to know that somebody agrees. I still think kita is dodgy as hell, if one of these others comes up as a candidate I will gladly switch to them. Nice switch to Tackster then right back to kita as soon as someone agrees. Again "I don't care who dies as long as they aren't a team mate On June 01 2011 19:35 DropBear wrote:
Also what's with me being on all these lists? I didn't realise I was so highly thought of.
"I am a noob please, please don't pressure me!
On June 01 2011 19:47 DropBear wrote:
Fistpound List
Returned offer by Palmar
GMarshal
Node
tnkted
Kurumi
sandroba
Offered it to Palmar without being asked
VisceraEyes
Mataza
Ignored invitation from Palmar
Amber[Light]
redFF
Meapak_Zipph
Eternalmisfit
DropBear
Complete fluff and cause of suspicion in and of itself, scum love posting lists, its an easy way to "contribute"
For the lazy
1.) Linking sand and varp to buy cred for his mole
2.) Doesn't care about who is lynched
3.) "I'm a noob, take me off those pressure lists"
4.) Light FoS on scum to distance
5.) fluffy posts
And then this gem
+ Show Spoiler +On June 02 2011 05:09 DropBear wrote:
This thread is an absolute mess. I'm almost ready to pull a draconian redtooth move here. Will be posting my updated lynch targets shortly.
Before I do that, can I please get an explanation from someone as to why I'm on the Zodiac lists? I thought the idea was to have good players or people who will be obvious targets. I've played only 2 games and wasn't exactly successful.
He *really* wants to be taken off those zodiac lists, no? Why would a town player want to dodge pressure like this? Most townies would see this as a chance to shine, rather than cowering from the attention
Next is my favorite day 1 post from DB, its his "analysis" of VisceraEyes, where he says nothing, points out a bunch of scummy moves on VE's part and then concludes "he is probably" green. 1 check for being wishy washy, and another for your analysis actually contradicting your conclusions. this is the post in question if anyone cares to read it. Also the so called "analysis" fails to actually analyze anything and limits itself to pointing out the glaringly obvious.
Thats all of the day one material DB so kindly provided us with, I shouldn't need more damning evidence than this, but lets dive into it anyway.
Day 2
His first post of day 2 actually seems extremely pro-town, its a detailed defense of chaos13, (here), but scum *love* to defend townies as well, best way to build town cred. Still I'll throw him a townie point, to counterweight all 40 scum points he earned day 1.
His part 2 thoughts however are much more... significant. read it here he points out that kurumi is lying. And then advocates no course of action Let me say that again: DropBear points out a clear liar and makes no suggestion as to what to do. This is a deliberate attempt to avoid the controversy that proposing a policy shot or lynch would bring. This failure to suggest a lynch or shot on clear evidence indicates that he is trying to push for something to be done, without sticking his neck out.
Part 3 of his thoughts are fascinating, as they mimic my own, any sane townie should have seen this, this is a case of DB pointing out the obvious, bussing a teammate that is already damned to die by pointing out what an reasonable townie should have already seen. The fact that he was able to post this to gain town cred just points at how awful we as a town are.
This next part merits me going point by point
+ Show Spoiler + On June 04 2011 04:40 DropBear wrote:DROPBEAR'S THOUGHTS PART 4 OF 4
Other assorted tidbits
- Bringing back BloodyC0bbler is an excellent idea. He's already flipped town. He's an expert player. Why not bring him back? I don't agree with the worries raised by Amber and others that his role could protect Mafia. From the looks of things, there are so many killing roles that the only time it could possibly harm town would be if he was still alive with only 5-6 players left and the only shot being a Mafia shot. Yay! Lets point out the glaringly obvious and neglect to mention the important points, such as 1.) mafia will shoot him
2.) Mafia now know to send their hit in at the very last minute
- Wiggles' claim of framed and his night action bussed is theoretically possible. Theoretical. It is however bullshit. The chances of everything lining up so perfectly are astronomically small. It assumes that there is a bus driver, it also assumes that there is a framer. There then has to be him being framed, which is 1/31 chance, plus sinani being bussed with precisely deskcaress which is some stupidly small number. The chances of all these things falling perfectly into place are negligible. Bus, bus, bus your teammate desperately... There is also this post which I credit for starting the ridiculous sandroba v redFF v Jackal58 melee and completely derailed town for several pages. Not only this, he was jumping on whatever bandwagon was gaining speed at the time without starting any of them. His scum flip is no real surprise. This claim of being DT checked because he was on a zodiac list is rubbish. The point of the zodiac lists was NOT dt checking those on it.
- I still don't understand why I'm on the zodiac lists and I would LOVE an explanation. No pressure please! I want to be able to seem like I'm contributing without any *real* scrutiny
- This thread is reeeeeeeeally hard to read. Please stop posting every little thing that comes into your head, only post if you have something important to say. I'm having massive problems getting scumreads cos its just spam spam spam. Keep it concise and need-to-know. although I agree its an easy statement for anyone to make
- The level of roleclaiming is ridiculous. My spreadsheet can't keep up with the notes. There is so much information out there now that Mafia can use and I encourage everyone who has not roleclaimed yet to stay silent, at least until you have something very important that requires revealing yourself. Basic advice once again, obvious stuff is obvious, stop posting fluff.
-GMarshal if you were roleblocked, how the hell are you supposed to have added someone to your mason circle? Or is that a day action?
- Fistpound list Day 2 Returned fistpound that was offered by PalmarOffered to Palmar without being askedKenpachi Rean Kurumi Mataza tnkted Cthsazsa hiro protagonist steftastiq sinani206 Refused/ignored invitation from PalmarMORE FLUFF, SO I LOOK PRO-TOWN
deconduo can you please update the list of people who have died and the important post links in the OP? so yeah, fluff, fluff, fluff and oh yes, I'm a noob.
Day 3 and onward
Day 3 DB contributed nothing, while supporting Palmar, that would usually be good play. Except for the fact that Palmar played exactly like mafia. Other than that he went through the day with "Internet problems" which was a great way to avoid having to push for a bum lynch when I so conveniently saved him...
His next major post is day 4, in his analysis of hiro protagonist. Which tries to look *really hard* like real analysis but is utter bs, basically it boils down to "he has a bad voting record" as a rule though, mafia usually have *good* voting records, since they know who is mafia, they only vote for the same target when they *have* to, hence they usually vote for their own team mates unless its a close thing. None of those lynches can be called a close thing in any way shape or form.
His only other post of substance is his arguments against redFF, which are as poor as his arguments against hiro.
He's been pushing bad lynches and behaving scummily all game long, while trying to *look* pro town. Not trying to help the town, but trying to look pro-town way too hard, rather than trying to win, he has been trying to build cred while misdirecting the town.
Drop Bear is a mafia PGO and should be hung
Kill the bear. Win the game.
|
EPT
![[image loading]](http://www.clipartpal.com/_thumbs/pd/holiday/stpatrick/Leprechaun_06.png)
![[image loading]](http://howlingforjustice.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/beautiful-wolf.jpg)
