EPTbased on the current dataset, do you think the MMR promotion levels got lowered, overall?
Are the leagues weaker than they used to be, on average?
Match Making Rating Tool - Page 140
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Termo88
Slovakia15 Posts
based on the current dataset, do you think the MMR promotion levels got lowered, overall? Are the leagues weaker than they used to be, on average? | ||
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Hairy
United Kingdom1169 Posts
Read questions & answers from OP! Offsets are inaccurate. And thanks but I am not a drunk. If I was there would not be HotS version of the tool. I don't think he meant any offence  It is referring to this meme:![[image loading]](http://cdn.smosh.com/sites/default/files/bloguploads/meme-youaredrunk-horses.jpg) Keep up the good work. It's tough creating a bit of software very much in the public eye, nevermind one that's forced to second-guess black-box functionality you're doing a good job. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 11 2013 02:18 Siwelcela wrote: It was a joke directed at the graph, not yourself. I am aware the offsets arent correct yet i was just asking if there had been any updates yet. The last update was just few posts before yours: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334561¤tpage=139#2773 If you knew that offsets would be incorrect then you could have checked 'Analyse Log' for e.g. those ' winning games at the end supposedly against much higher mmr players yet mine still drops' matches & likely noticed that they were from different league than the opponents for those matches where your MMR was calculated to be higher. And that would have reinforced the idea that offsets are incorrect. And no. As you did not give any id:s of your character I could not find your user graph amongst more than 2k user graphs just based on shape (did browse all the graphs quickly through). So even if I had more up-to-date offset numbers I could not check how nicely they fit. On April 11 2013 02:54 Termo88 wrote: Hey korona, based on the current dataset, do you think the MMR promotion levels got lowered, overall? Are the leagues weaker than they used to be, on average? Will include comments when new offsets are published. | ||
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skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
He will explain what he changed here later. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
HotS: HotS offsets are little rough and may still need adjustment. They are mostly based on EU & US data. Accuracy seems nice for higher leagues, but there may be inaccuracies for lower leagues. Surprise regarding HotS offsets was that Blizzard has made them much smaller than the WoL offsets. Most user graphs look nice with the new offsets. But there are several characters whose graphs are spiky & several low league characters whose MMR is shown to be in higher league. I had no time to investigate why. One reason could be that those characters had mixed unranked matches or small data errors (+- 1 change points for the opponent). I will investigate these cases later. Remember that all HotS characters started with blank MMR. MMR changes lot more rapidly after blank start. Thus the tool may suggest that there is a mistake in early matches even if there not necessarily is (These should not be marked bad unless it is clear that spike is due bad data). Also note that master promotion usually requires minimum of ~25 matches (if start from blank MMR) even if the MMR may rise to master range lot faster. But considerable MMR spikes (if not in first ~25 matches from start of placements and there are no match gaps) for higher league players whose opponents for those matches were also from higher leagues are likely due data errors (tool suggests these in 'Analyse Log'). GM and top GM lines were also updated. Please note that GM line is never exact as true GM border is dynamic (these were set to a point masters & GMs start mixing up. It is possible that they are higher than the original GM entry barrier). WoL: Another surprise was that Blizzard seems to use last season's offsets for WoL. There was very little data available, but results mostly matched last season's offsets. This is convenient, because it would have been very hard /almost impossible to calculate totally new WoL offsets based on so low amount of data. WoL user graphs look nice with the old offsets. Big difference thought is that MMR requirement for GM has become much lower compared to last season. Amount of data: Base data from Tue 2013-04-09 for HotS consisted 31 434 matches that gave 1125 match pairs giving info regarding offsets (true number is less as some of these should have been filtered out as possible unranked matches, but have not updated the analysis tools). Most of the pairs were from higher leagues. Regarding some lower league offsets there were less than 10 pairs giving info. Base data for WoL consisted 1972 matches and only 47 match pairs gave offset info. | ||
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KillerofGods
United States34 Posts
Surprise regarding HotS offsets was that Blizzard has made them much smaller than the WoL offsets. Does that mean that it is easier to get promoted and demoted faster or is it pretty much the same just a smaller number? Thanks for update and info!!! As always it's much appreciated. Have a nice day! | ||
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Termo88
Slovakia15 Posts
Surprise regarding HotS offsets was that Blizzard has made them much smaller than the WoL offsets. 1. Does this mean that the leagues are easier (less skill is needed to be in the same league as one would have needed to be in WoL?) 2. Is the ~1570 MMR (or whatever it was) needed for Diamond league in WoL directly comparable to ~750 MMR needed for Diamond league in HotS, skill-wise? | ||
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Termo88
Slovakia15 Posts
On April 11 2013 16:25 KillerofGods wrote: Does that mean that it is easier to get promoted and demoted faster or is it pretty much the same just a smaller number? Thanks for update and info!!! As always it's much appreciated. Have a nice day! The relatively narrow bands would suggest exactly what you are proposing. | ||
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Termo88
Slovakia15 Posts
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Aimconquest
15 Posts
Bronze 0 Silver 200 Gold 385 Platinum 565 Diamond 750 Master 950 GM (Dynamic) 1550 Have to say these are substantailly lower - last time silver was nearly 600.. Was there a calculation change? | ||
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Termo88
Slovakia15 Posts
On April 11 2013 21:13 Aimconquest wrote: From the tool (HOTS) Bronze 0 Silver 200 Gold 385 Platinum 565 Diamond 750 Master 950 GM (Dynamic) 1550 Have to say these are substantailly lower - last time silver was nearly 600.. Was there a calculation change? Now we need the old ones; I can't upload them, because I reinstalled the tool and it now only shows archive for WoL. :=/ If no one's around to post it, I may start playing WoL for a lil' bit until the graph shows up. | ||
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skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
On April 11 2013 23:08 Termo88 wrote: Now we need the old ones; I can't upload them, because I reinstalled the tool and it now only shows archive for WoL. :=/ If no one's around to post it, I may start playing WoL for a lil' bit until the graph shows up. Formats of the stored data is open. Go into the datafolder of the programm: Sc2gears\User Content\Plugin file cache\mmr.plugin.MMRPlugin There you see the two database files: bnet.data bnet_hots.data The program checkes and download them, if nessasary everytime you start sc2gears. Open them with a texteditor.(i highly recomend notepad++) The files are human readable. You shoudl be able to understand the format very fast. Promotion values: bronce,silver,gold,platinum,diamond,master,grandmaster,highest on server WOL 0,585,930,1275,1530,1910,2810,3160 HOTS 0,200,385,565,750,950,1550,1950 gm is not that accurate than the rest because it change all the time. But korona put more work into track it down, than i did in the past. Keep in mind that GM is not a real league. So the offset and the promotion value of this "league" are not in any connection to each other. Unlike all other leagues where they are identical since 3 seasons now. (Before that promotion = offset +73) Highest on server is obvious not accurate because its a snapshot of the data and you can not be 100% sure (but a good chance) you have the highest account in the database Also they are so close together at the top that you mesure the highest deveration not the highest account. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 11 2013 23:28 skeldark wrote: Formats of the stored data is open. Go into the datafolder of the programm: Sc2gears\User Content\Plugin file cache\mmr.plugin.MMRPlugin There you see the two database files: bnet.data bnet_hots.data The program checkes and download them, if nessasary everytime you start sc2gears. Open them with a texteditor.(i highly recomend notepad++) The files are human readable. You shoudl be able to understand the format very fast. Promotion values: bronce,silver,gold,platinum,diamond,master,grandmaster,highest on server WOL 0,585,930,1275,1530,1910,2810,3160 HOTS 0,200,385,565,750,950,1550,1950 gm is not that accurate than the rest because it change all the time. But korona put more work into track it down, than i did in the past. Keep in mind that GM is not a real league. So the offset and the promotion value of this "league" are not in any connection to each other. Unlike all other leagues where they are identical since 3 seasons now. (Before that promotion = offset +73) Highest on server is obvious not accurate because its a snapshot of the data and you can not be 100% sure (but a good chance) you have the highest account in the database Also they are so close together at the top that you mesure the highest deveration not the highest account. Users only have bnet.data. It is either based on the bnet.data (for old version) or bnet_hots.data (for new version). The new version has offsets for both HotS & Wol. For WoL the promotion offsets are (note how low gm ones are compared to last seasons numbers shown in skeldark's message. GM line represents rough master-gm mixing point. the entry barrier may be higher): 0,585,930,1275,1530,1910,2110,2600 HotS: 0,200,385,565,750,950,1550,1950 For SEA server the numbers are lower as SEA population is smaller. | ||
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Termo88
Slovakia15 Posts
0. What I wonder is, how is it possible to maintain 8-20-32-20-18-2% distribution of active players if the league offset bands are so narrow and the gain/loss of MMR is pretty much the same on a per match basis. Wouldn't this fact inflate the diamond and master leagues as compared to WoL? Also, my first two questions remain unanswered; are the answers even known? 1. Does this mean that the leagues are easier (less skill is needed to be in the same league as one would have needed to be in WoL?) 2. Is the ~1570 MMR (or whatever it was) needed for Diamond league in WoL directly comparable to ~750 MMR needed for Diamond league in HotS, skill-wise? | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On April 11 2013 17:24 Termo88 wrote: 1. Does this mean that the leagues are easier (less skill is needed to be in the same league as one would have needed to be in WoL?) 2. Is the ~1570 MMR (or whatever it was) needed for Diamond league in WoL directly comparable to ~750 MMR needed for Diamond league in HotS, skill-wise? Smaller offsets likely e.g. mean that it takes less wins to pass one league MMR range than before. But it does not necessary mean it is easier. You cannot compare HotS & WoL leagues based on skill. Blizzard aims to divide the active player population like this: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/9067510/Heart_of_the_Swarm_League_Percentages-3_11_2013 It is not yet known how well they succeeded regarding this with the current static offsets. If they missed their aim they will likely adjust the offsets in the future. But as the total player base increased considerably when HotS was published, it is likely that active WoL players from last season fare relatively better than the new players / players who had been inactive. Thus many of them will have higher relative MMR than they had in the end of WoL. Also there will be movements up & down as people do not understand new units, counters & builds as well as WoL ones. Also like you have seen the MMRs change rapidly after the placements (when starting with blank MMR). This also means that people's, who have not played many games, MMR may not represent their typical skill. For example if somebody gets ~8 free wins at the start, then his MMR is likely already in master range or very close, even if he might be total beginner. If you face & beat such opponent your MMR still increases like you would have won a typical player for that MMR range. | ||
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DoubleDice
Brazil21 Posts
LOG FILE: + Show Spoiler + 13:22:19 MMR-Stats 9.1 13:22:19 --------INIT START-------- 13:22:19 OK Sc2Gears auto-save is enabled. 13:22:19 OK File-Encoding UTF-8 13:22:19 Loading HOTS DB file... 13:22:19 OK Loading DB version 12.2 done 13:22:21 UPDATE: New DB avalable! 13:22:21 Downloading new DB File... 13:22:23 Testing downloaded DB file! 13:22:23 Loading HOTS DB file... 13:22:23 OK Downloaded new Database! 13:22:23 Loading HOTS DB file... 13:22:23 OK Loading DB version 12.3 done 13:22:23 Loading character profiles: 13:22:23 Profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/612917/2/DoubleDice/ 13:22:23 OK Settings loaded! 13:22:23 OK Timeclient: Systemtime offset: 0 sec 13:22:23 OK Gamedata: 11 Games loaded. 13:22:23 Loading Archive... 13:22:23 OK Gamedata: 7 Games loaded. 13:22:23 Mac-OS detected! 13:22:23 Disabling Memory reader... 13:22:23 Disabling Game observer.... 13:22:23 Memory scanner is disabled 13:22:23 OK Triggers ready! 13:22:25 OK: Program is up to date 13:22:25 --------INIT END-------- 13:45:16 Post-trigger: Reading web profiles 13:45:22 Webgrabber: Player true 13:45:25 Webgrabber: Opponent true 13:45:25 Post-trigger: Done reading web profiles 13:45:25 Calculating adjusted points for the players (either Alg. A or B needs to succceed for certain player) 13:45:25 DATA Alg. A : failed, No pre-game data (RAM scanner possibly off) or pre-game data bad: 13:45:25 DATA Alg.B: success:http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/612917/2/DoubleDice/ 13:45:25 A -9999 B 13 13:45:25 13:45:25 DATA Alg. A : failed, No pre-game data (RAM scanner possibly off) or pre-game data bad: 13:45:25 DATA Alg.B: failed, Unknown change points for player: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/444987/1/Mathus/ 13:45:25 A -9999 B -9999 13:45:25 13:45:25 ERROR AFTERCHECK Both alg. A and B failed: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/444987/1/Mathus/ 13:45:25 Gamecheck: true 13:45:25 GAME: HotS 13:45:25 PREPLAYER 1: Data: false Reading: false Adjusted: false Dmmr: false id: playerlink: game: Unknown server: league: ERROR division_name: ERROR Main race: unkown Game race: unkown gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR totalbonuspool: -9999 Wins: -9999 Looses: -9999 points: -9999 bonus: -9999 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 13:45:25 PREPLAYER 2: Data: false Reading: false Adjusted: false Dmmr: false id: playerlink: game: Unknown server: league: ERROR division_name: ERROR Main race: unkown Game race: unkown gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR totalbonuspool: -9999 Wins: -9999 Looses: -9999 points: -9999 bonus: -9999 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 13:45:25 POSTPLAYER 1: Data: false Reading: false Adjusted: true Dmmr: false id: 2-612917 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/612917/2/DoubleDice/ game: HotS server: US league: diamond division_name: banshee rho Main race: z Game race: z gamedate: 4/11/2013 mapname: Daybreak LE totalbonuspool: 468 Wins: 47 Looses: 45 points: 484 bonus: 63 change_points: 13 adjusted_points: 79 13:45:25 POSTPLAYER 2: Data: true Reading: true Adjusted: false Dmmr: false id: 1-444987 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/444987/1/Mathus/ game: HotS server: US league: diamond division_name: turaxis chi Main race: t Game race: t gamedate: 4/11/2013 mapname: Daybreak LE totalbonuspool: 468 Wins: 25 Looses: 22 points: 404 bonus: 74 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: 10 13:45:25 Dataset: (GAME: HotS) --- GAMESTART --- TIME: 1365698676293 VALID: true Result for player 1: W --- GAMEEND --- 13:45:25 POST-Trigger done 13:45:25 Data quality needs to be 100% to be able to calculate MMR 13:45:25 <FONT COLOR="DD0000">Data quality for calculating Player's MMR: 50% </font> 13:45:25 <FONT COLOR="DD0000">Data quality for calculating Opponent's MMR: 75% </font> 13:45:27 OK Uploader: game uploaded 13:45:27 Ladder Game Done! 13:45:27 -------------------------- | ||
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skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
You just did not get a good game. Because you are on mac and cant use memory reader its harder for you to get one. It depends on many factors and is not in your hands. Just ladder on. | ||
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Chillyo
United States70 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + 10:42:24 MMR-Stats 9.1 10:42:24 --------INIT START-------- 10:42:24 OK Sc2Gears auto-save is enabled. 10:42:24 OK File-Encoding UTF-8 10:42:24 Loading HOTS DB file... 10:42:24 OK Loading DB version 12.3 done 10:42:25 OK DB up to date! 10:42:25 Loading character profiles: 10:42:25 Profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2285748/1/LilQuip/ 10:42:25 Profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2288736/1/ChillYo/ 10:42:25 OK Settings loaded! 10:42:25 OK Gamedata: 2 Games loaded. 10:42:25 Loading Archive... 10:42:25 OK Gamedata: 38 Games loaded. 10:42:25 Memory scanner is enabled 10:42:25 OK Triggers ready! 10:42:25 OK Gameobserver: ready! 10:42:26 OK: Program is up to date 10:42:26 --------INIT END-------- 10:44:10 -------------------------- 10:44:10 Game Start detected 10:44:10 Searching memory for character profiles for game HotS 10:44:10 Reading Memory ...OK 10:44:10 OK Found Memory-Profile in Active-Profiles! 10:44:50 Pre-trigger: Reading web profiles 10:44:54 Webgrabber: Player true 10:44:57 Webgrabber: Opponent true 10:44:57 Pre-trigger: Done reading web profiles 10:44:57 Pre-Trigger done 10:50:57 Post-trigger: Reading web profiles 10:51:0 Webgrabber: Player true 10:51:4 Webgrabber: Opponent true 10:51:4 Post-trigger: Done reading web profiles 10:51:4 Calculating adjusted points for the players (either Alg. A or B needs to succceed for certain player) 10:51:4 DATA Alg. A : success: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2288736/1/ChillYo/ 10:51:4 DATA Alg.B: success:http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2288736/1/ChillYo/ 10:51:4 DATA Alg. A : failed, No change! http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/417061/1/BeeF/ 10:51:4 DATA Alg.B: failed, Unknown change points for player: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/417061/1/BeeF/ 10:51:4 ERROR AFTERCHECK Both alg. A and B failed: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/417061/1/BeeF/ 10:51:4 Gamecheck: true 10:51:4 POST-Trigger done 10:51:4 Data quality needs to be 100% to be able to calculate MMR 10:51:4 Data quality for calculating Player's MMR: 50% 10:51:4 Data quality for calculating Opponent's MMR: 75% 10:51:6 OK Uploader: game uploaded 10:51:6 Ladder Game Done! 10:51:6 -------------------------- Game Data+ Show Spoiler + 10:44:10 Ramscanner: name1 : ChillYo 10:44:10 Ramscanner: id1 : 1-2288736 10:44:10 Ramscanner: name2 : BeeF 10:44:10 Ramscanner: id2 : 1-417061 10:44:57 Pre-Trigger: player 1: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2288736/1/ChillYo/ 10:44:57 Pre-Trigger: player 2: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/417061/1/BeeF/ 10:51:4 A 15 B 15 10:51:4 10:51:4 A -9999 B -9999 10:51:4 10:51:4 GAME: HotS 10:51:4 PREPLAYER 1: Data: true Reading: true Adjusted: true Dmmr: false id: 1-2288736 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2288736/1/ChillYo/ game: HotS server: US league: diamond division_name: mutalisk alpha Main race: p Game race: unkown gamedate: 4/11/2013 mapname: Neo Planet S LE totalbonuspool: 469 Wins: 70 Looses: 65 points: 232 bonus: 248 change_points: 30 adjusted_points: 11 10:51:4 PREPLAYER 2: Data: true Reading: true Adjusted: true Dmmr: false id: 1-417061 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/417061/1/BeeF/ game: HotS server: US league: diamond division_name: mohandar pi Main race: t Game race: unkown gamedate: 4/11/2013 mapname: Neo Planet S LE totalbonuspool: 469 Wins: 23 Looses: 28 points: 386 bonus: 40 change_points: 0 adjusted_points: -43 10:51:4 POSTPLAYER 1: Data: false Reading: false Adjusted: true Dmmr: false id: 1-2288736 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2288736/1/ChillYo/ game: HotS server: US league: diamond division_name: mutalisk alpha Main race: p Game race: p gamedate: 4/11/2013 mapname: Bel'Shir Vestige LE totalbonuspool: 469 Wins: 71 Looses: 65 points: 262 bonus: 233 change_points: 15 adjusted_points: 26 10:51:4 POSTPLAYER 2: Data: true Reading: true Adjusted: false Dmmr: false id: 1-417061 playerlink: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/417061/1/BeeF/ game: HotS server: US league: diamond division_name: mohandar pi Main race: t Game race: t gamedate: 4/11/2013 mapname: Bel'Shir Vestige LE totalbonuspool: 469 Wins: 23 Looses: 28 points: 386 bonus: 40 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -43 10:51:4 Dataset: (GAME: HotS) --- GAMESTART --- TIME: 1365702632454 VALID: true Result for player 1: W --- GAMEEND --- | ||
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skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
Just not enough data in this game to calculate mmr. Not every game is a "good game". Most likley your opponent played so called "unranked". In quotes because what blizazrd called "unranked" for maketring reasons is in fact also a ranked game, just better hidden. There is not one logical reason to play this faced "unranked" but thats another story. There is not enough data in this game calculate your mmr. just ladder on. | ||
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Chillyo
United States70 Posts
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