I'm an avid better of items of dota myself (mah rares!) and the lack of thread/place for me to discuss gave me the initiative to create one.
There is only one site I bet and it's dota2lounge (www.dota2lounge.com)
Here's a video on how to bet in dota2lounge
it's easy as a point-blank arrow
afaik, you can only bet commons, uncommons, rares and keys. auspicious-tagged items can't be placed and you can only bet 4 items at a given time.
IN CASE YOU GET MAD BECAUSE YOU LOST YOUR ITEMS, PLEASE DIRECT IT TO THE QQ THREAD
Let's use this thread to discuss bets related topics. If you have more betting (items-only) sites then feel free to share.
Tip: -When you win, you don't have to retrieve your winnings right away. You can bet them again in other matches without the hassle of trading with bots. There is a limit on how many items dota2lounge can keep for you though.
-Taking Length of series into account:
On September 08 2014 09:41 motbob wrote: If you bet regularly on Dota2lounge, you are probably familiar with the fact that you need to take the length of a series into account. As the series gets longer, you should be willing to take odds that are more skewed towards the favorite. An example: today there was a match between Empire and Alliance. Empire has looked significantly better than Alliance recently, so the 60/40 odds look off at first glance... until you realize the match is a Bo1. OK, that's fine, Bo1 games are pretty high variance. The odds would probably be something like 65/35 if it were a Bo3.
But I worked out something interesting regarding the so-called "best of two" format where teams teams play two games (with the potential of a 1-1 tie). It turns out that, on Dota2lounge, you should treat Bo2 matches the same as a Bo5 for betting purposes. The favored team is about as likely to win you rares in a Bo2 as it would be to win a Bo5. Here's the math comparing a Bo3 and a Bo2:
Let's say Team A has a 60% chance of beating Team B in a given game.
In a Bo2, Team A has a .6*.6=.36 chance of going 2-0, while Team B has a .4*.4=.16 chance. The chance of a 1-1 is 0.6*0.4*2=0.48, but Dota2lounge returns your items in the case of a tie, so we need to focus only on the two cases where a team goes 2-0. Items are won/lost 52% of the time (.36+.16), and Team A goes 2-0 36% of the time, so we just take 36%/52%=0.69 to find out the proper odds for betting on Team A (69/31).
In a Bo3, Team A has a .36 chance of going 2-0. As mentioned above, the chance of a 1-1 is 0.48, and Team A has a 60% chance of winning the third game, so the chance of Team A winning in three games is .48*.6=0.288. Since either going 2-0 or winning the third game are the only two ways Team A can win the series, we add .36 and .288 to get the chance of Team A winning the series (0.65, so the proper odds for a Bo3 are 65/35).
69% for a Bo2 vs 65% for a Bo3. I won't do the math here, but the chance of Team A winning a Bo5 against Team B is also about 69%.
If you take issue with my math, I will be happy to defend it to the death in the thread below.
I'll update this thread in the future with more info.
6/3/2014 edit: You can now bet mythicals, legendaries and immortals
9/8/2014 edit: Added a bit of motbob's tips in betting regarding length of the series
Yes, only with the whores that I paid 2$ min. (22)
14%
Only with my girlfriend! (22)
14%
Only for pretend. (22)
14%
With good friends in real life (21)
13%
With my mom, and OBNLY my MOM! (20)
12%
162 total votes
Your vote: Have you ever participated in PhoneSecks?
(Vote): Yes, only with the whores that I paid 2$ min. (Vote): Only with my girlfriend! (Vote): With random broads I meet over the internet. (Vote): With good friends in real life (Vote): Only for pretend. (Vote): With my mom, and OBNLY my MOM! (Vote): WTF IS PHONESACKS?
FOR NAR Rares 0.8 for 1 1.6 for 2 2.4 for 3 3.2 for 4
Uncommons 0.9 for 1 1.9 for 2 2.9 for 3 3.8 for 4
Commons 0.9 for 1 1.9 for 2 2.9 for 3 3.9 for 4
Keys 0.6 for 1 1.3 for 2 2 for 3 2.6 for 4
FOR LIQUID Commons 1 for 1 2 for 2 3.1 for 3 4.1 for 4
Uncommons 1 for 1 2 for 2 3.1 for 3 4.1 for 4
Rares 1.2 for 1 2.4 for 2 3.7 for 3 4.9 for 4
Keys 1.4 for 1 2.8 for 2 4.2 for 3 5.6 for 4
Poll: Do you think polls are being overused?
I don't care go away (29)
19%
YES!!!!1111 Polls make jesus cry (27)
18%
Yes, but you're still a retard (23)
15%
LOL poll about poll ROOFLES (23)
15%
No, i love polls(and crayons) (21)
14%
You're a retard (17)
11%
No, but you're still a retard (11)
7%
151 total votes
Your vote: Do you think polls are being overused?
(Vote): YES!!!!1111 Polls make jesus cry (Vote): Yes, but you're still a retard (Vote): LOL poll about poll ROOFLES (Vote): I don't care go away (Vote): No, i love polls(and crayons) (Vote): No, but you're still a retard (Vote): You're a retard
FOR SNA Rares 0.3 for 1 0.5 for 2 0.8 for 3 1.1 for 4 Uncommons 0.3 for 1 0.7 for 2 1 for 3 1.3 for 4 Commons 0.4 for 1 0.8 for 2 1.2 for 3 1.6 for 4 Keys 0.3 for 1 0.6 for 2 0.9 for 3 1.2 for 4
FOR UG Commons 2.5 for 1 5 for 2 7.5 for 3 10 for 4 Uncommons 2.9 for 1 5.8 for 2 8.7 for 3 11.6 for 4 Rares 3.5 for 1 7 for 2 10.6 for 3 14.1 for 4 Keys 3.1 for 1 6.3 for 2 9.4 for 3 12.5 for 4
if you guys want to discuss a certain matchup (whether to bet on team a or b), just post it here, there might be some gossip or info about the match that may sway odds to your favor
mouz has better cohesion overall, so unless tl can come with some niche strat, it should goto mouz. that bounty hunter series showed how strong mouz is, i mean they picked a roaming bh for pajkatt and almost won. upsets do happen, but i think ill just refrain from this one
although past encounters between pr and empire goes to empire (9 wins, 1draw, 1 loss against pr), both teams in a roll and we know that PR can upset top teams
Never really bet with any of my rares in Dota, I mostly just sold them to get other items I wanted. Now that I'm getting back into the game, I may start betting if I find a few rares.
On June 03 2014 20:08 Laurens wrote: Yeah you can bet almost everything now, there is an epic screenshot of someone betting 4 arcanas on PR vs EG and getting an insane return.
Can anyone link the picture of that. I couldn't find it on my own in that vast interwebs.
NewBee shouldn't be this favoured at all! HGT is not as good as NewBee, but the chance of an upset is there and should be greater than 10%. Even though they will probably win, the odds for NewBee are pretty bad. I'd probably abstain from this one.
DT vs. TongFu - 68% vs. 32%
A great place to bet on TongFu I think. DT has looked strangely dead after losing to CIS in the qualifiers, while TongFu is still playing decently. They have a great shot at taking this, especially in a BO1. Gonna place a solid bet on TongFu here.
I'll write my thoughts on the summit games as the odds settle there.
NewBee shouldn't be this favoured at all! HGT is not as good as NewBee, but the chance of an upset is there and should be greater than 10%. Even though they will probably win, the odds for NewBee are pretty bad. I'd probably abstain from this one.
Lost my last 3 bets after coming up big with the iG vs NewBee game last week.
Haven't made any bets today, but is the Na'Vi.US vs Na'Vi.EU one worth it? I am close to betting an arcana and maybe more on US but they have been having a poor showing at The Summit so far. I think they can take a game off of their EU brothers but....... my loss streak is preventing this from happening haha.
Been on a bit of a losing streak after winning big on the ZL game a few days ago. I'm considering a bet on VG, after Fnatics win against DK their odds improved, but I dont think they can consistently perform like that. Any thoughts on this game?
I'm curious as to how does the transaction actually happen. Does a steambot initiate trade with you, calculate the value of your bets and automatically refund your rares when you win ? Is it free, as in winner gets 1 rare loser lose 1 rare middleman does not make any spread ?
The value of items is displayed on the site, so you can see how much value you're betting. The site shows the return value you'd get if you're succesful. When you win, you get your items back + some new items that match the return value.
VG pretty much had that game done but they over committed to mid for tower and lost key heroes, then lost another big fight and Fnatic take the throne!
I wouldn't have bet my rares on that game but if you did, nice.
On June 06 2014 23:01 idonthinksobro wrote: for some weird reason i don't mind losing trash items in the offering but i mind if i lose stuff on betting.
true, i have the same feeling. i guess i dont like when teams arent trying to win, fun picks is one thing but random suicides into 3 enemy heroes gives me a bad feeling about rares/trust lost
im going to bet a small amount on fnatic.. they seem hungrier than EG
Well, losing 2 all-ins kinda sucks. But I have no item worth more than 0.5 anyway. It can't be helped. Hopefully DK can come back from the loss. As for betting I will have to stop for a while.
I think this MVP vs Titan bet is a good one to go big on.. any input? I think that MVP can take at least a game off of titan, so that would make a draw :/
mineski vs scythe - Small bet, mineski is 0-4 and losing to everyone recently abstain from titan vs mvp - odds are too skewed for this one mith vs scythe - medium bet, scythe is 5-1 against mith on past encounters and mith had a recent roster change. A vs fnatic - like na'vi, A's odds on d2l are always higher than they're supposed to be. And i think fnatic have a greater chance at taking this (unless A made a lot of progress during/after wpc).
I think ninjaboogie is playing for them now, he's always been pretty good yeah? might be the best player in Korea atm. plus rave recently beat phoenix, who tends to beat zephyr. i think rave is slightly favoured, enough to make a worthy bet.
Put a medium bet on Scythe vs mvp, though I'm not sure, I read on gg that they are playing with 2 standins. Where to check this sort of stuff? May be worth switching if it turns out to be true.
yep, ninjaboogie too strong. im glad he found a new team where he might be able to get some fame (i heard the korean casters pronouncing ninjaboogies name in wierd styles )
For me, Vici Gaming seems like the best bet. Winning 29/19/9 times the value bet for 1st/2nd/3rd respectively seems very solid for how good the team is. Anyone else betting?
On July 03 2014 21:12 cecek wrote: Any thought who to bet on in the lounge overall ti4 predictions? http://dota2lounge.com/predict
For me, Vici Gaming seems like the best bet. Winning 29/19/9 times the value bet for 1st/2nd/3rd respectively seems very solid for how good the team is. Anyone else betting?
I think if you want a long shot like that you are better off with c9 or Empire. Obviously they aren't as big of long shots with 22 and 15 value respectivley compared to the 29 from VG but honestly I don't see VG getting top three at all. If C9 or Empire are playing top of their game they can do it. Personally if I were to a big long shot in the VG tier I would go with titan for dat 50 value.
Why can't I see all my items in the betting area of D2L ? I can understand for inscribed rares but I have some packed set that are bettable and some that aren't, anyone has any idea as to why ?
Well the group stages end tomorrow, anybody making any bets?
I was able to win 2 arcanas today, now looking to see where I should place them. I want to think that Alliance can beat Navi EU and even EG, but they can't deal with the void which is something EG has been playing tons, and even xboct.
I also think that mouz might be some strong bets, considering how close they are to the top 10.
I'm trying to bet through doto2lounge but steam says that I logged from a new device and has locked trading for 7 days. Some days later ,tried the same, same msg, 7 days left still.
Do you master traders know whats up? I just wanna trade my dupes.
what 'device' is that? a mobile phone? i think steam is using your ip as basis, if you keep changing connections/restarting your router/dynamic ip then you might be in a pickle
I guess your browser counts as "new device". I've got the same problem. Only that I already placed bets and put some items into the system, but I cant get them back due to the 7 day trade ban on "new devices". Although I always used my FireFox for that and never had any problems until 3 days ago.
Dota 2 not only provide us with the game but also the competitive scene where we can watch the esports(like soccer) & support our favourite teams! And one way that has help me, on a personal level, is betting on my favourite teams. Not only does it more interesting to watch, the feeling of watching the game where I bet really makes the game much more interesting.
If anyone of you are interested on betting, please feel free to take a look at www.dota2betsprediction.com . We help our readers on making the right choices and giving them tips and our own analysis.
EPT
, at least i got in on the navi throw vs rox
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emp vs [a] is a risky game, betting on empire- i shall see
