One year after Serral went on his historic championship run at the 2018 WCS Global Finals, he heads into the 2019 edition of the tournament as the favorite to achieve an even more historic repeat. No player has ever won back-to-back Global Finals, much less a non-Korean. But all the indicators suggest that he's actually going to do it.
Serral's fellow pros, Koreans and foreigners alike, speak of him as if he's some sort of final boss, the player all roads to the championship must go through. He's been #1 on Aligulac.com's modified Glicko ranking system for god knows how many months. At the time of writing, 63% of TL.net users had picked Serral to win the championship over the entire fifteen player field. Those rating Serral the most harshly seem to be gamblers, with betting sites currently giving him a 'mere' 40%-ish chance of going all the way.
Three months ago, after the conclusion ASUS ROG/Assembly Summer, it seemed like the height of Serral-mania had finally passed. His loss to Stats in the semifinals made it three major internationals in a row (not counting HomeStoryCup 19) where he had been eliminated by a player from Korea. The first retaliatory strike for BlizzCon 2018 came at IEM Katowice, where soO prevailed over Serral with a 3-2 victory in the quarterfinals. Then, weeks later, INnoVation had defeated Serral 4-3 in the finals of WESG, another big-money event. It wasn't just Koreans hitting back—control of the Circuit had also slipped through Serrals' fingers. After completing a perfect, four-for-four Circuit grand slam in 2018, he had ceded two of 2019's Circuit titles to Reynor.
Of course, many fans and progamers at that time would still have picked Serral as their #1 player in the world. Just, not to the ridiculous degree where they'd pick him to win over the entire field of top players at a major, mixed-region tournament. Whether you breathed a sigh of relief or sadness, the totally dominant, basically invincible Serral of May-November 2018 looked like he was gone.
Which is what's supposed to happen to normal people, by the way. The apex, macro-everyone-to-death version of INnoVation from early Heart of the Swarm only really existed for about half a year. Even the uber-dominant period that earned Flash the moniker of "God" was just ten months long, and those ten months still felt like an eternity in Brood War time. For whatever reason—whether it's self-burnout or opponents picking apart your game—these things just aren't meant to last.
In a sense, peak Serral didn't last either. What we didn't expect was for peak Serral 2.0 to start so soon.
Just a few weeks after being eliminated by Stats in Helsinki, Serral headed to Seoul to compete in GSL vs. The World 2019. The 2018 version of that tournament was where Serral-mania really picked up, with Serral living up to and exceeding all of his Circuit hype by defeating INnoVation, Dark, and Stats in a row. This year, GSL vs. The World served as a similarly important turning point, as Serral got all of his thunder back.
Even if Maru once again flubbed his lines and denied us a dream-match, the gauntlet of Koreans Serral had to face was brutal nevertheless: TY, a player with so-so results in 2019, but of unimpeachable reputation; Trap, a finalist in the most recent Code S; and Classic, a finalist in the other Code S before that (Serral also took a 4-2 victory against Elazer just good measure). Serral then punctuated his GSL vs. The World victory by taking back his Circuit crown, defeating Reynor 4-1 in the finals of WCS Fall to end the 2019 Circuit with an even 2-2 title split (or even slightly uneven in the favor of Serral, depending on how you rate WCS Winter: Europe) and the #1 WCS Circuit seed on the year.
If you thought INnoVation fans or Maru fans were quick to say "[Player] is BACK!", then Serral fans are here, demanding their new world record. That's not even a criticism of fickle fans. That's just the righteous due for players who've built their reputation up to such a high level: one convincing tournament run is all you need for the hype-train to accelerate up from "recklessly fast" back to its usual speed of "flying into orbit."
There's another major factor that has people feeling confident about Serral's chances at the Global Finals. We all know how to translate progamer speak by now. If a Zerg player says "Zerg is balanced," what that really means is that Zerg is a bit strong. Going one step further, if a Zerg player essentially says "Zerg is actually overpowered," then that means the house of balance is on f***ing fire.
Sure, Zerg might not be a problem across all levels of StarCraft II. It might not even be a problem in pro-StarCraft II, broadly speaking. But it does now appear to be a problem at the BlizzCon level where ALL the Zerg players in attendance are of the 'top' variety (don't be that guy who well-actually's soO or Elazer in the comments). If Zerg is overpowered, and Serral has proven himself to be the top ZvP, ZvT, AND ZvZ player, then there appears to be only one logical conclusion to reach.
It's easy to get caught up in the Serral buzz. Serral vs. The World is a kind of story we've never seen before in StarCraft II, and we're not ready to quit it yet. And, of course, the idea that any faction is imbalanced is going to receive a lot of support from the other two-thirds of the player-base.
But it's worth thinking back to those tournaments earlier in the year when Serral was indeed having his moments of mortality, and wonder what vulnerability may still lie hidden underneath this recent round of success and hype.
The WESG series vs INnoVation is the toughest one to get a takeaway from. I'd like to say that it teaches us to go for two-base marine-tank pushes every game, but that doesn't seem tenable on the current maps. Still, it was revealing to see Serral perhaps overthink his plan, going for broke on several cheeses to mixed success.
The loss to soO reminded us that Zerg vs Zerg, at the end of the day, is still Zerg vs Zerg—a volatile match-up that gives the underdog an outsize chance of winning. It wouldn't have been surprising if Serral's Circuit streak ended at WCS Montreal 2018, where he miraculously survived a series of close calls in a ZvZ gauntlet. At IEM Katowice, soO just happened to be the player who finally cashed in on Serral's long overdue ZvZ debt.
Serral's loss to Stats reminded us of another quirk of StarCraft II—sometimes Protoss just kills all your Drones. Stats, who had been unusually sloppy with his Oracles when facing Serral in 2018, apparently went to medical school over the winter as he killed Drones with absolutely surgical precision during the Winter rematch. A few moments of inspired execution from Protoss can make a huge difference in a match.
Who knows, maybe this kind of thinking is merely grasping at straws, trying to add a bit of suspense to a tournament that feels more like a foregone conclusion than any previous year. The best version of Serral was remarkable because he could cut through all the randomness, chaos, and noise to achieve what the best player often fails to do in StarCraft—turn 'supposed to happen' into what actually happened. A bet against Serral is a bet that the best version of Serral hasn't truly returned, and he's still vulnerable to the same human foibles as everyone else. Headed into the Global Finals, it seems like it's a bet few of us are willing to make.
I've just been in this place before Higher on the street And I know it's my time to go Calling you, and the search is a mystery Standing on my feet It's so hard when I try to be me, woah
I saw Serral use a mineral walk through gas trick vs a very specific all-in at the recent Nation wars match for Finland, being that quick to adjust and adapt amaze me and will probably be in his favour in the bo5 format.
If Serral advances from his group I'm pretty sure he'll win the tournament, just because I expect the bracket to be a Zerg orgy. He should make it out of this group in first, but if I had to choose two players to take Serral down it would be Maru and Stats so we'll see.
On October 24 2019 08:20 muppet70 wrote: I saw Serral use a mineral walk through gas trick vs a very specific all-in at the recent Nation wars match for Finland, being that quick to adjust and adapt amaze me and will probably be in his favour in the bo5 format.
Small tricks like this are one of the beauties of Starcraft. One wonders if he came up with that on the spot (unlikely), or if realized this trick at some point and has done this multiple times since, or if he saw someone else do it on ladder.
This is it. I don't like having to keep defending the argument that Serral is in the GOAT argument; he already has unthinkable stats that really aren't paralleled by any other players in my opinion.
I think it he wins BlizzCon for a second year running, there really will be no doubt.
On October 24 2019 14:21 Dave4 wrote: This is it. I don't like having to keep defending the argument that Serral is in the GOAT argument; he already has unthinkable stats that really aren't paralleled by any other players in my opinion.
I think it he wins BlizzCon for a second year running, there really will be no doubt.
I think he's been the most impressive, consistent, and best player in the world for the better part of 2 years, but still a ways off from GOAT. Winning this tournament would help, but there's still players like Maru and INnoVation that have a much broader trophy list and who successfully completed in a wider variety of environments. In terms of GOAT discussion, Serral is at an extreme disadvantage because he blossomed during an era when he can't compete in proleague or other team leagues, and GSL is the last preparation-style tournament left.
Once again, that's not a knock on Serral's incredible skills, but we'll never know how well he would perform in certain situations whereas other players have earned their reputation as monsters of team leagues, prep-style tournaments, and/or weekenders. Serral hasn't had the opportunity to fail or succeed in anything other than weekenders ever since he went full time
On October 24 2019 14:21 Dave4 wrote: This is it. I don't like having to keep defending the argument that Serral is in the GOAT argument; he already has unthinkable stats that really aren't paralleled by any other players in my opinion.
I think it he wins BlizzCon for a second year running, there really will be no doubt.
I'm not really a fan of Serral and was more impressed by Maru's GSL last year. But at this point even if Serral doesn't win Blizzcon he is the most dominant player to ever touch the game imho. Over two years his worst results are ro8 ? and he won more than half the tournaments he was in.
And watching his games feels like watching someone in total control; crazy good map control and decision making on top of his mechanics makes him rarely threatened.
40% to win a final match makes you the underdog. 40% to win the whole tournament makes you The Wall. The groupstage being Bo5s makes it much more likely he will head into the playoffs. With Maru or Stats (arguably his biggest and 3rd biggest hurdles respectively) crossed out, his chances should go from 40 to 70%.
Serral is the best bet to win the tournament, period. I really hope he does as well so the magic stays alive and the whole SC2 scene is far better for it.
On October 24 2019 14:21 Dave4 wrote: This is it. I don't like having to keep defending the argument that Serral is in the GOAT argument; he already has unthinkable stats that really aren't paralleled by any other players in my opinion.
I think it he wins BlizzCon for a second year running, there really will be no doubt.
I think he's been the most impressive, consistent, and best player in the world for the better part of 2 years, but still a ways off from GOAT. Winning this tournament would help, but there's still players like Maru and INnoVation that have a much broader trophy list and who successfully completed in a wider variety of environments. In terms of GOAT discussion, Serral is at an extreme disadvantage because he blossomed during an era when he can't compete in proleague or other team leagues, and GSL is the last preparation-style tournament left.
Once again, that's not a knock on Serral's incredible skills, but we'll never know how well he would perform in certain situations whereas other players have earned their reputation as monsters of team leagues, prep-style tournaments, and/or weekenders. Serral hasn't had the opportunity to fail or succeed in anything other than weekenders ever since he went full time
You can equally argue that Serral has been this ridiculously dominant in spite of not having a team house or team/coach to help him prep like they did in the glory days (or JAGW still do). He has done it all on his own.
The fact that this article references two second place finishes in major tournaments a 'slump' speaks volumes. Classic is literally the only player who bettered Serral in the first part of the year.
Shortly: He has practiced mostly ZvP and ZvT, as he consider ZvZ his best match up. Doesn't fear Group B as his intention is to win whole tournament, thus it doesn't matter when some particular opponent comes against him in a brackets, as everyone must be defeated anyway. Has been living normal life and practicing.
On October 25 2019 03:43 Azhrak wrote: Serral is the best bet to win the tournament, period. I really hope he does as well so the magic stays alive and the whole SC2 scene is far better for it.
Yes. ...and if he'll manage drop out somehow before Ro4, we all can be then assured that The God King simply learn from his mistakes and just switch next gear on.
Nobody should mix arrogance and self-confidence. Serral is the Prime example of the latter, so its very easy to agree with your sentiment.
You and me probably feel a lot less confident now than The God King himself, and there're probably many many people and fans that share our feelings of insecurity.
If Serral comes to the Blizzcon as an Elemental force he was last year, our petty worries are all for vain. If, if, if, if...
On October 24 2019 14:21 Dave4 wrote: This is it. I don't like having to keep defending the argument that Serral is in the GOAT argument; he already has unthinkable stats that really aren't paralleled by any other players in my opinion.
I think it he wins BlizzCon for a second year running, there really will be no doubt.
I think he's been the most impressive, consistent, and best player in the world for the better part of 2 years, but still a ways off from GOAT. Winning this tournament would help, but there's still players like Maru and INnoVation that have a much broader trophy list and who successfully completed in a wider variety of environments. In terms of GOAT discussion, Serral is at an extreme disadvantage because he blossomed during an era when he can't compete in proleague or other team leagues, and GSL is the last preparation-style tournament left.
Once again, that's not a knock on Serral's incredible skills, but we'll never know how well he would perform in certain situations whereas other players have earned their reputation as monsters of team leagues, prep-style tournaments, and/or weekenders. Serral hasn't had the opportunity to fail or succeed in anything other than weekenders ever since he went full time
You can equally argue that Serral has been this ridiculously dominant in spite of not having a team house or team/coach to help him prep like they did in the glory days (or JAGW still do). He has done it all on his own.
Ridiculously dominant, yes, but its 100% certain that he hasn't lacked adequate training community for years, already.
There is surely a kind of Dojo somewhere, and Serral is its Sempai, 12dan. Now it happens to be so that 8-10dan Masters and Apprentices started ask some real questions.
Even with all money, sponsors, culture, intangibles, fame, and destiny, I don't think that past era Korean "Team House" could be easily and straightforwardly transferred to Europe. Europe is multi-cultural, multi-linguistic, historical entity of far bigger geographical scale than South-Korea, with far more diverse cultural, sociological, economical, historical, ethnic, religious, philosophical, national, and personal isoglosses than Korean scene ever was, or ever can be.
By aforementioned facts, European model of "Team House" will always fail if the Korean example is uncritically transferred on these soils. Luckily, History doesn't repeat same things twice (Neither success nor failure), and if it does then the second attempt will be a farce, joke, parody (following famous quote of Karl Marx here).
Nothing, simply nothing of last two years' overall experience do indicate that the era of rise of Euro SC2 would be the farce, unless Blizzard Ltd. (or whatever) will Fuck it by themselves. In that case its however The Global issue, not European born problem.
The Sempai simply directed and dictated the road and now people walk along that road. The Sempai himself on the Front line.
On October 24 2019 14:21 Dave4 wrote: This is it. I don't like having to keep defending the argument that Serral is in the GOAT argument; he already has unthinkable stats that really aren't paralleled by any other players in my opinion.
I think it he wins BlizzCon for a second year running, there really will be no doubt.
Hasn't won IEM, WESG since he lost it all to Korean.. Thinkable. Has yet to man up and go to Korea for GSL Code S. All this talk about "preparation tournament" is just a way to divert the truth that Serral hasn't achieved this or even attempted to.
On October 24 2019 14:21 Dave4 wrote: This is it. I don't like having to keep defending the argument that Serral is in the GOAT argument; he already has unthinkable stats that really aren't paralleled by any other players in my opinion.
I think it he wins BlizzCon for a second year running, there really will be no doubt.
Hasn't won IEM, WESG since he lost it all to Korean.. Thinkable. Has yet to man up and go to Korea for GSL Code S. All this talk about "preparation tournament" is just a way to divert the truth that Serral hasn't achieved this or even attempted to.
On November 03 2019 18:16 ProFalseIdol wrote: Well, didn't even get into the finals. And showed really bad games.
In before fan boys start making excuses.
You mean that blind vultures are trying to make Serral look like he failed hard? He reached the semifinals. If he failed, what about Maru, Rogue, Stats?
Every single player who was the favourite to won BlizzCon lost, except probably Mvp in 2011; the point is not that Serral lost, it's how he lost. He is human, anyway; being the best at Sc2 doesn't mean you get to win every game and every tournament, unlike it happens in other sports/esports(and ignoring the fact Serral actually did that in the second half in 2018; that was an exception, it doesn't normally happen and it's not supposed to).
If you call Serral's games bad, you may want to skip 90% of played games in Sc2;Serral in the past surely played better than he did at BlizzCon, but it was still very high level Starcraft, what you are saying sounds ridicolous.
On November 03 2019 18:16 ProFalseIdol wrote: Well, didn't even get into the finals. And showed really bad games.
In before fan boys start making excuses.
You mean that blind vultures are trying to make Serral look like he failed hard? He reached the semifinals. If he failed, what about Maru, Rogue, Stats?
Every single player who was the favourite to won BlizzCon lost, except probably Mvp in 2011; the point is not that Serral lost, it's how he lost. He is human, anyway; being the best at Sc2 doesn't mean you get to win every game and every tournament, unlike it happens in other sports/esports(and ignoring the fact Serral actually did that in the second half in 2018; that was an exception, it doesn't normally happen and it's not supposed to).
If you call Serral's games bad, you may want to skip 90% of played games in Sc2;Serral in the past surely played better than he did at BlizzCon, but it was still very high level Starcraft, what you are saying sounds ridicolous.
Well Rogue failed for sure, since he allowed a non zerg in the semi finals, but you can't compare Maru and Stats performances to Serral because statistically it's far more difficult for them to reach the semi finals
EPT
![[image loading]](https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload//w_1199,h_675,f_auto,fl_lossy,q_auto:eco/39-6038285db17cd923d89.jpg)
