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On March 09 2019 22:37 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2019 22:32 Xain0n wrote:On March 09 2019 22:20 Charoisaur wrote:On March 09 2019 22:10 Xain0n wrote:On March 09 2019 21:43 MarianoSC2 wrote:
My only issue with this list is that Gumi is in it. Should have been Rogue. And TY is too low.
Otherwise based on the circumstances and the number of relevant events so far its a good ranking don't understand so many people bashing it.
I guess Serral fan boys want to keep they reputation of the most deluded group of people ever. GJ in that regard Have you looked at the results of that astonishing pool, "Who's most deluded: Serral fanboys or Korean Elitists?" ? You may not support the opinion that Serral should be at #1 this power ranking but you should at least understand there is a strong case for it, casually insisting on this "delusion" regarding the most successful player in 2018(according to TL, you know) and the best foreigner in history is frankly out of place. There is a strong case for it but saying "Serral must be first and every other opinion is just dishonest and disrespecting him" is just bullshit. Personally Serral still seems like the best player to me but given his lack of recent results (Blizzcon was 3 months ago) I think it's completely reasonable to put the player that has won the only big tournament this year at the top. Not sure what's there to get upset about... I am personally not upset as you might notice, I think Serral should figure as first in this list but soO is understandable. People overreacting are probably frustrated by the fact Serral never figured as #1 in a power ranking despite totally deserving it(it would have been unanimous for HSC, but TL's writers decided to make a humurous one instead). You are basically right here. Yeah TL writers totally made a humorous PR for HSC to avoid putting Serral in first. I don't understand what's the big deal about him never being #1 in a PR. That's of course only because there wasn't one in the off-season.
Because it'd be nice to read one where foreigner is the best sc2 player in the world. That's all.
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On March 10 2019 01:49 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2019 00:23 terribleplayer1 wrote:
You people do realize that Serral did considerably better vs BETTER Koreans than Maru did last year right? In terms of win%.
This powerrank was ridiculous, if soO dominated the tournament maybe you put him as #1, but he played risky, lost a bunch, and happened to win. You do realize Maru playing in Korea resulted in him playing them more often thus Serrals numbers may be just an accident because low number of games? Statistics need large pool of games. And somehow people disregard THE WHOLE year, e.g. the epic WESG where Serral lost to Maru  Edit> Wrong tourney
Statistics would need way more games than the amount Maru played, as well; beating so many top koreans can't be an accident, no one could do it without having enough skill.
The whole year is weighted, Serral still placed third in that tounrament.
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On March 10 2019 00:26 sneakyfox wrote:Isn't the problem really that the rank was released immediately after a big tournament with all the best players there? If it is a rank of current strength of the players, how can you not put the champion first? TL should release their ranks before big tournaments/finals instead of after. Ofc they will still find a way to screw it up tho
If they made it before the event, the PR would've been almost pure speculation. The PR served it's purpose very well: to stir up discussion 
On March 10 2019 00:23 terribleplayer1 wrote:
You people do realize that Serral did considerably better vs BETTER Koreans than Maru did last year right? In terms of win%.
That's just plainly wrong. Maru had more matches vs top Koreans in 2018. In his period of dominance he only lost two matches. Serral lost no match at all in his period of dominance but played fewer matches vs top Koreans.
So Serral had no considerably but a slightly better matchscore than Maru. And he did not face more better Koreans.
On March 09 2019 23:50 Xain0n wrote:[Maru] lost too often at the weekenders and too hard in the biggest tournament of the year to retain the throne.
Yes, he could not retain the throne of being the current best player in the world which clearly was Serral since his Blizzcon win.
But Maru - in his period of dominance - only lost twice at weekenders. The "biggest tournament of the year" (which was not the hardest - just one of the hardest) wasn't in Maru's period of dominance anymore. Just like Serral's defeats in early 2018 weren't in his period of dominance already (which began at GSL vs the World).
On March 09 2019 23:50 Xain0n wrote:
My 2 cents is that if someone other than soO who was not part of the previous top 10 would have won(let's say Solar or Bunny), he would not be listed as #1 here; soO's breaking his Kong curse had a huge impact, bigger than the "merely" impressive IEM victory.
That's probably a factor. But Bunny did not achieve anything in 2018 (no GSL Ro16), Solar is another story of course (which is why I think Solar could've been ranked first, too, if he won IEM).
But there are other factors:
1) soO did win vs Serral, which would have elevated almost everyone quite a bit higher.
2) soO wasn't irrelevant in 2018 (he made it to GSL Ro8 and Ro16 and took Maru to the 5th game in GSL vs the World) in the sense of that he never was totally counted out as a serious contender.
3) soO being known for his long time consistency over many years now can be given the benefit of the doubt on the question, if he is really good right now or if his victory was just a fluke. It was like that with Maru and also with Life back then: they were considered the best when they won a premier tournament after a long time without winning anything because they were known to not just fall down in form immediately after. So yes: if a player has a legacy, he is more likely to get ranked even higher when he wins something big again.
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On March 10 2019 04:07 terribleplayer1 wrote:No fronk, you're wrong, he did face better koreans, and he did have a considerably better winrate, the only thing you're right that I never disagreed is that Maru played more koreans. https://i.gyazo.com/fbcc934fbd03ffd4bce82601a098de06.png
So, according to this statistic Lillekanin is on par with Maru, Inno and TY, following to your logic.
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TrashPanda, Lillekanin avg korean opponent is 304, Serral's is 19, Maru's is 22 so obviously no.
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it's kind of sad how this thread gets 9 pages in two days and pretty much nothing else has been discussed..
this list doesn't even matter.... it's just someones opinion.. yet you all need to talk about it like it matters... yiiiiikes.
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That statistic is bound to be favorable for Serral. He hardly competed against Koreans, a total of 28 matches. Maru has more than double the matches and competed in a wider variety of tournaments. Maru basically played all of the Koreans Serral played, more times than Serral did, but his average gained nothing from it because he also played a lot of other people.
Not to mention that the rating you're referring to is based on Aligulac ranking. Playing against Maru boosts Serral's rating because Maru's the highest ranking Korean, but it does nothing for Maru, who also can't play against himself. And having that whole stat based around Aligulac rankings makes it questionable at best to begin with, because those rankings suffer from some long standing accuracy issues (most notably Stats can't make it into Aligulac's top 10 no matter how many semifinals he reaches).
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>That statistic is bound to be favorable for Serral.
No, not really. The only valid point is Maru can't play himself, but that's minor, the difference in winrate was pretty big
Maru is the clear underdog vs a couple of players (stats,sOs,Innovation), Serral is the underdog vs hmm soO?
During 2018 maru's play was a lot more risky, you can argue it's because he plays Terran and I'd actually agree with you, anyhow this isn't about Serral vs Maru, it's just about how good Serral's 2018 was.
But apparently, this power rank was about 2019 only, which makes this data irrelevant.
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On March 10 2019 04:07 terribleplayer1 wrote:No fronk, you're wrong, he did face better koreans, and he did have a considerably better winrate, the only thing you're right that I never disagreed is that Maru played more koreans. https://i.gyazo.com/fbcc934fbd03ffd4bce82601a098de06.png
Ok, let me specify: Marus winrate vs top Koreans in offline matches wasn't considerably worse. Nor did Serral face better Koreans more often than Maru.
Ok, to be transparent, here are my criteria:
1) Only offline matches which are part of real competition are taken into account.
Online matches always have the flaw of not being pretigeous (and therefore not being taken as serious) and players hiding their best strats.
Showmatches also aren't taken as serious quite often. This is why I'll exclude Serral's Bo1-win vs Maru in the GSL vs The World team showmatch.
Also offline qualifiers which aren't streamed are to be excluded. They often take place in unfavorable times, vs unknown opponents and the only goal is to qualify, not to show your best starcraft.
2) To compare Serral's and Maru's dominance in 2018, we'll first have to determine their respective period of dominance:
Maru:
His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL Season 1 (march 10th).
It ended with his 3rd consecutive GSL championship win vs TY (september 15th)
(his streak could also include his win vs Rogue at GSL Supertournament 2, but sinc he lost vs sOs in the same tournament two days later, it's fair to exclude this win).
This period of domincance lasted over 6 months in which Maru only lost 2 offline matches.
Serral:
His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL vs The World (August 4th).
It ended with his victory at Homestory Cup vs Innovation (November 25th).
(One could argue, if it is fair that Serrals period of dominance was artificially ended by the end of competition in the end of 2018. But we only can deal with data we have, not with data that might have been if things had been different. Serral's performance at IEM showed that he - while still being a top player - is not as dominant anymore).
This period of dominance lasted over 4 months in which Serral incredibly lost no offline match at all.
3) Now we have to count the top players they won against, in order to value their win streaks:
Maru:
GSL S1 Ro8: sOs, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players
WESG: Nerchio, Scarlett, Showtime, Reynor, Serral, Dark -> 2 (?) top players
GSL Super Tournament 1: soO -> 1 top player
GSL S2: Zanster, Dear, Patience, Solar, Rogue, Classic, Zest -> 5 top players
GSL vs The World: soO, Showtime -> 1 top player
GSL S3: Forte, Leenock, Neeb, Reynor, Gumiho, Zest, TY -> 4 top players
----> This equals 15 top players
Serral:
GSL Super Tournament 1: Innovation, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players
Blizzcon: sOs, Zest, Dark, Rogue, Stats -> 5 top players
Homestory Cup XVIII: Bly, soO, Trap, Bunny, Hellraiser, souL, Taeja, uThermal, Bunny, Innovation -> 2 top players
----> This equals 10 top players
One probably could argue about, which opponents should be counted as "top players", but this goes for both Maru and Serral. So if you include top WCS players and some more Koreans, then the winrates would rise for both.
So I conclude again:
In 2018 Maru was dominant for a longer period of time in which he faced tougher competition more often than Serral did in his shorter period of dominance.
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On March 10 2019 04:52 terribleplayer1 wrote:
TrashPanda, Lillekanin avg korean opponent is 304, Serral's is 19, Maru's is 22 so obviously no.
Thats why I said, following his logic. I just ignored the stat which I didn't care for (opponent rank, as opposed to his min number of games).
Statistics get more accurate the bigger their database is, so what do you guess would happen to Serral if we up the min number of matches to, let's say 50, and then compare him to Maru?
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On March 10 2019 05:50 fronkschnonk wrote:Ok, let me specify: Marus winrate vs top Koreans in offline matches wasn't considerably worse. Nor did Serral face better Koreans more often than Maru. Ok, to be transparent, here are my criteria: 1) Only offline matches which are part of real competition are taken into account. Online matches always have the flaw of not being pretigeous (and therefore not being taken as serious) and players hiding their best strats. Showmatches also aren't taken as serious quite often. This is why I'll exclude Serral's Bo1-win vs Maru in the GSL vs The World team showmatch. Also offline qualifiers which aren't streamed are to be excluded. They often take place in unfavorable times, vs unknown opponents and the only goal is to qualify, not to show your best starcraft. 2) To compare Serral's and Maru's dominance in 2018, we'll first have to determine their respective period of dominance: Maru: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL Season 1 (march 10th). It ended with his 3rd consecutive GSL championship win vs TY (september 15th) (his streak could also include his win vs Rogue at GSL Supertournament 2, but sinc he lost vs sOs in the same tournament two days later, it's fair to exclude this win). This period of domincance lasted over 6 months in which Maru only lost 2 offline matches. Serral: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL vs The World (August 4th). It ended with his victory at Homestory Cup vs Innovation (November 25th). (One could argue, if it is fair that Serrals period of dominance was artificially ended by the end of competition in the end of 2018. But we only can deal with data we have, not with data that might have been if things had been different. Serral's performance at IEM showed that he - while still being a top player - is not as dominant anymore). This period of dominance lasted over 4 months in which Serral incredibly lost no offline match at all. 3) Now we have to count the top players they won against, in order to value their win streaks: Maru: GSL S1 Ro8: sOs, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players WESG: Nerchio, Scarlett, Showtime, Reynor, Serral, Dark -> 2 (?) top players GSL Super Tournament 1: soO -> 1 top player GSL S2: Zanster, Dear, Patience, Solar, Rogue, Classic, Zest -> 5 top players GSL vs The World: soO, Showtime -> 1 top player GSL S3: Forte, Leenock, Neeb, Reynor, Gumiho, Zest, TY -> 4 top players ----> This equals 15 top players Serral: GSL Super Tournament 1: Innovation, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players Blizzcon: sOs, Zest, Dark, Rogue, Stats -> 5 top players Homestory Cup XVIII: Bly, soO, Trap, Bunny, Hellraiser, souL, Taeja, uThermal, Bunny, Innovation -> 2 top players ----> This equals 10 top players One probably could argue about, which opponents should be counted as "top players", but this goes for both Maru and Serral. So if you include top WCS players and some more Koreans, then the winrates would rise for both. So I conclude again: In 2018 Maru was dominant for a longer period of time in which he faced tougher competition more often than Serral did in his shorter period of dominance.
Completely ignoring WCS terribly warps the point of view.
I find confusing that Maru's period of dominance doesn't end when Serral's begins; if we speak of regional dominance, Serral's started in January.
I'd like to point out Serral won all of the tournaments with top koreans he entered during his period of dominance whereas Maru lost two during his.
Moreover, Serral's dominance ended in 2018 with the year itself. By your own method we can't be still sure that his dominance has ended in 2019; Maru's losses didn't put an end to his, why Serral's would? WESG next week will tell us more, at the moment it's safe to say Serral's domination might have have ended last Saturday.
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Rogue that is not in the top 10 beating rank1, 2 times. Was clear that this ranking does not represent the POWER = the strenght of the players if you make your ranking 80 % bases on the last tournament, exactly like the BW powerrank where flash is not rank 1.
There is just an easy way to make an accurate power rank, Start again an elo database. Another way would be taking the WCS points ranking from the last 1 year, giving the GSL 1, and 2 season and GSl vs the world a 50 % weighting, and GSL 3,World finals and kattowice 100 %. Heres the WCS points ranking. Give Serral 10 k points since we know that hes better than classic
1. Maru 14250
2. Serral 10 000
Classic 7675
Stats 6825
Zest 6275
Rogue 6150
Dark 5475
sOs 4325
the new adjusted ranking with GSL vs the world, World finals and kattowice would look like.
1. Serral (1 Championship GSL vs the world, World final champions Ro8 Kattowice)
2. Maru ( Ro4, Ro8 and Ro24 outisde GSL)
3. Stats (3 Times Runner up outside GSL)
4. Dark (Ro4 kattowice, Ro8 World finals)
5. Rogue (Ro4 Worldfinals)
6. Zest (Ro4 Kattowicie)
7. Soo (Moves from 12 to 7 for winning 1 championshipt, spot 4-7 are all close)
8. TY
9. SOS
10. Classic
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Bisutopia19158 Posts
If Gumiho won IEM would that have put him at #1. If the answer from the writers is no, then soO has definitely been misranked.
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quoting my pre GSL comment.
On March 10 2019 08:41 BisuDagger wrote:
If Gumiho won IEM would that have put him at #1. If the answer from the writers is no, then soO has definitely been misranked.
this is spot on correct, they would not have.
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On March 10 2019 06:07 TrashPanda wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2019 04:52 terribleplayer1 wrote:
TrashPanda, Lillekanin avg korean opponent is 304, Serral's is 19, Maru's is 22 so obviously no.
Thats why I said, following his logic. I just ignored the stat which I didn't care for (opponent rank, as opposed to his min number of games). Statistics get more accurate the bigger their database is, so what do you guess would happen to Serral if we up the min number of matches to, let's say 50, and then compare him to Maru?
Yes, maybe Serral's winrate goes above 90%.
This would make a bit of sense if Serral had 3 matches, not 28 matches, these are matches not maps as well, your argument is basically "Serral got lucky" which is ridiculous.
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On March 10 2019 05:50 fronkschnonk wrote:Ok, let me specify: Marus winrate vs top Koreans in offline matches wasn't considerably worse. Nor did Serral face better Koreans more often than Maru. Ok, to be transparent, here are my criteria: 1) Only offline matches which are part of real competition are taken into account. Online matches always have the flaw of not being pretigeous (and therefore not being taken as serious) and players hiding their best strats. Showmatches also aren't taken as serious quite often. This is why I'll exclude Serral's Bo1-win vs Maru in the GSL vs The World team showmatch. Also offline qualifiers which aren't streamed are to be excluded. They often take place in unfavorable times, vs unknown opponents and the only goal is to qualify, not to show your best starcraft. 2) To compare Serral's and Maru's dominance in 2018, we'll first have to determine their respective period of dominance: Maru: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL Season 1 (march 10th). It ended with his 3rd consecutive GSL championship win vs TY (september 15th) (his streak could also include his win vs Rogue at GSL Supertournament 2, but sinc he lost vs sOs in the same tournament two days later, it's fair to exclude this win). This period of domincance lasted over 6 months in which Maru only lost 2 offline matches. Serral: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL vs The World (August 4th). It ended with his victory at Homestory Cup vs Innovation (November 25th). (One could argue, if it is fair that Serrals period of dominance was artificially ended by the end of competition in the end of 2018. But we only can deal with data we have, not with data that might have been if things had been different. Serral's performance at IEM showed that he - while still being a top player - is not as dominant anymore). This period of dominance lasted over 4 months in which Serral incredibly lost no offline match at all. 3) Now we have to count the top players they won against, in order to value their win streaks: Maru: GSL S1 Ro8: sOs, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players WESG: Nerchio, Scarlett, Showtime, Reynor, Serral, Dark -> 2 (?) top players GSL Super Tournament 1: soO -> 1 top player GSL S2: Zanster, Dear, Patience, Solar, Rogue, Classic, Zest -> 5 top players GSL vs The World: soO, Showtime -> 1 top player GSL S3: Forte, Leenock, Neeb, Reynor, Gumiho, Zest, TY -> 4 top players ----> This equals 15 top players Serral: GSL Super Tournament 1: Innovation, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players Blizzcon: sOs, Zest, Dark, Rogue, Stats -> 5 top players Homestory Cup XVIII: Bly, soO, Trap, Bunny, Hellraiser, souL, Taeja, uThermal, Bunny, Innovation -> 2 top players ----> This equals 10 top players One probably could argue about, which opponents should be counted as "top players", but this goes for both Maru and Serral. So if you include top WCS players and some more Koreans, then the winrates would rise for both. So I conclude again: In 2018 Maru was dominant for a longer period of time in which he faced tougher competition more often than Serral did in his shorter period of dominance.
You conveniently left out how Serral won over Rogue, Impact, Neeb, Zest and Trap before he lost vs Classic at IEM, yet you were quick to note how Maru gloriously defeated the likes of Solar and soO (who accomplished nothing in 2018)
And sure if WCS doesnt count then one can argue all sorts of thing. But it does count. The very least you would need to take into considerations his win against foreigners who made it into GSL ro16 or above. So if you add the IEM wins and the WCS wins over GSL participants, Serral passed Maru by your own absurd and subjective criteria.
Serral went undefeated for a very long time, while Maru's 3 GSL and one LAN win came with interruptions when he was knocked out in the big LAN's including Blizzcon.
If you just cherry-pick the data, then sure you can make all kind of stats, and prove all kinds of points. Here let me show you:
Serral won 7 out of the 8 big tournaments he entered in 2018, that's 87,5%, and it does include the World champion-ship
Maru won 4 of the 7 big tournaments he entered, that's 57% and does not include the World champion-ship
Serral's performance is 20+% better
OR
Serral won 6 big tournaments in a row. Maru won 2 in a row. Serral's performance is 200% better
The way I see it, Serral haters have 2 main arguments:
1. he didnt participate in normal GSL seasons, cuz surely he couldnt have won there. Which I find to be a lame ass argument, cuz it cannot be proved/ disproved, and other, less accomplished foreigners could do well in GSL.
2. He didnt win at IEM at the start of the year. Which i again find a lame ass argument, since nobody was calling him best player of the world in february, and it was a good showing even there, and straight up wins for the rest of the year.
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On March 10 2019 06:24 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2019 05:50 fronkschnonk wrote:On March 10 2019 04:07 terribleplayer1 wrote:No fronk, you're wrong, he did face better koreans, and he did have a considerably better winrate, the only thing you're right that I never disagreed is that Maru played more koreans. https://i.gyazo.com/fbcc934fbd03ffd4bce82601a098de06.png Ok, let me specify: Marus winrate vs top Koreans in offline matches wasn't considerably worse. Nor did Serral face better Koreans more often than Maru. Ok, to be transparent, here are my criteria: 1) Only offline matches which are part of real competition are taken into account. Online matches always have the flaw of not being pretigeous (and therefore not being taken as serious) and players hiding their best strats. Showmatches also aren't taken as serious quite often. This is why I'll exclude Serral's Bo1-win vs Maru in the GSL vs The World team showmatch. Also offline qualifiers which aren't streamed are to be excluded. They often take place in unfavorable times, vs unknown opponents and the only goal is to qualify, not to show your best starcraft. 2) To compare Serral's and Maru's dominance in 2018, we'll first have to determine their respective period of dominance: Maru: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL Season 1 (march 10th). It ended with his 3rd consecutive GSL championship win vs TY (september 15th) (his streak could also include his win vs Rogue at GSL Supertournament 2, but sinc he lost vs sOs in the same tournament two days later, it's fair to exclude this win). This period of domincance lasted over 6 months in which Maru only lost 2 offline matches. Serral: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL vs The World (August 4th). It ended with his victory at Homestory Cup vs Innovation (November 25th). (One could argue, if it is fair that Serrals period of dominance was artificially ended by the end of competition in the end of 2018. But we only can deal with data we have, not with data that might have been if things had been different. Serral's performance at IEM showed that he - while still being a top player - is not as dominant anymore). This period of dominance lasted over 4 months in which Serral incredibly lost no offline match at all. 3) Now we have to count the top players they won against, in order to value their win streaks: Maru: GSL S1 Ro8: sOs, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players WESG: Nerchio, Scarlett, Showtime, Reynor, Serral, Dark -> 2 (?) top players GSL Super Tournament 1: soO -> 1 top player GSL S2: Zanster, Dear, Patience, Solar, Rogue, Classic, Zest -> 5 top players GSL vs The World: soO, Showtime -> 1 top player GSL S3: Forte, Leenock, Neeb, Reynor, Gumiho, Zest, TY -> 4 top players ----> This equals 15 top players Serral: GSL Super Tournament 1: Innovation, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players Blizzcon: sOs, Zest, Dark, Rogue, Stats -> 5 top players Homestory Cup XVIII: Bly, soO, Trap, Bunny, Hellraiser, souL, Taeja, uThermal, Bunny, Innovation -> 2 top players ----> This equals 10 top players One probably could argue about, which opponents should be counted as "top players", but this goes for both Maru and Serral. So if you include top WCS players and some more Koreans, then the winrates would rise for both. So I conclude again: In 2018 Maru was dominant for a longer period of time in which he faced tougher competition more often than Serral did in his shorter period of dominance. Completely ignoring WCS terribly warps the point of view. I find confusing that Maru's period of dominance doesn't end when Serral's begins; if we speak of regional dominance, Serral's started in January. I'd like to point out Serral won all of the tournaments with top koreans he entered during his period of dominance whereas Maru lost two during his. Moreover, Serral's dominance ended in 2018 with the year itself. By your own method we can't be still sure that his dominance has ended in 2019; Maru's losses didn't put an end to his, why Serral's would? WESG next week will tell us more, at the moment it's safe to say Serral's domination might have have ended last Saturday.
I'm not completely ignoring WCS, but I can see, that this impression can arise. As I said, one could include Serral's wins vs top Foreigners in this equation, but then one would've to include Maru's wins vs lesser Koreans and top Foreigners, too.
That WCS isn't nearly as tough as GSL should be proven now with Blizzcon, Homestory Cup XVIII and IEM demonstrating the utter dominance of the Korean scene with some rare exceptions from the foreign scene.
Also I still think one can only rightfully speak of the beginning of Serral's dominance with GSL vs The World. This was the first time we undoubtedly knew that Serral was on the very top even vs toughest competition. So there would only be WCS Montreal to be included in his period of dominance.
That we can't be sure that Serral's period of dominance has clearly ended is true. But this doesn't tell very much about 2018. So, we can credit Serral with an additional month (december) of dominance, because he was the undisputed best when the last competition in november took place. Then his period of dominance in 2018 still will be shorter than Maru's without adding any wins vs top competition.
If Serral goes on to win WCS and WESG, his overall period of dominance will have to be seen as greater than Maru's, of course.
What is also a (minor) factor: Serral skill is still in "only" tested in weekender tournaments so far (with blizzcon being something weird in between). He wasn't challenged with high preparation matches of a league that goes over multiple weeks. With that I'm not saying that weekenders are less valuable. But while Maru has competed in both formats, excelling in the league format an being great to solid in weekenders, Serral only has competed in weekenders. So we have a less comprehensive impression of Serral's skill. This really is a minor factor. But as close as the race for "the best in 2018" is between Serral and Maru, it adds an additional (small) point in favor of Maru.
That Maru didn't win two of the tournaments with top Koreans in it is true. But Maru also played two more than Serral. The extension of observed time for Serral with IEM now shows us that he isn't winning everything either.
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On March 10 2019 17:44 Geo.Rion wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2019 05:50 fronkschnonk wrote:On March 10 2019 04:07 terribleplayer1 wrote:No fronk, you're wrong, he did face better koreans, and he did have a considerably better winrate, the only thing you're right that I never disagreed is that Maru played more koreans. https://i.gyazo.com/fbcc934fbd03ffd4bce82601a098de06.png Ok, let me specify: Marus winrate vs top Koreans in offline matches wasn't considerably worse. Nor did Serral face better Koreans more often than Maru. Ok, to be transparent, here are my criteria: 1) Only offline matches which are part of real competition are taken into account. Online matches always have the flaw of not being pretigeous (and therefore not being taken as serious) and players hiding their best strats. Showmatches also aren't taken as serious quite often. This is why I'll exclude Serral's Bo1-win vs Maru in the GSL vs The World team showmatch. Also offline qualifiers which aren't streamed are to be excluded. They often take place in unfavorable times, vs unknown opponents and the only goal is to qualify, not to show your best starcraft. 2) To compare Serral's and Maru's dominance in 2018, we'll first have to determine their respective period of dominance: Maru: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL Season 1 (march 10th). It ended with his 3rd consecutive GSL championship win vs TY (september 15th) (his streak could also include his win vs Rogue at GSL Supertournament 2, but sinc he lost vs sOs in the same tournament two days later, it's fair to exclude this win). This period of domincance lasted over 6 months in which Maru only lost 2 offline matches. Serral: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL vs The World (August 4th). It ended with his victory at Homestory Cup vs Innovation (November 25th). (One could argue, if it is fair that Serrals period of dominance was artificially ended by the end of competition in the end of 2018. But we only can deal with data we have, not with data that might have been if things had been different. Serral's performance at IEM showed that he - while still being a top player - is not as dominant anymore). This period of dominance lasted over 4 months in which Serral incredibly lost no offline match at all. 3) Now we have to count the top players they won against, in order to value their win streaks: Maru: GSL S1 Ro8: sOs, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players WESG: Nerchio, Scarlett, Showtime, Reynor, Serral, Dark -> 2 (?) top players GSL Super Tournament 1: soO -> 1 top player GSL S2: Zanster, Dear, Patience, Solar, Rogue, Classic, Zest -> 5 top players GSL vs The World: soO, Showtime -> 1 top player GSL S3: Forte, Leenock, Neeb, Reynor, Gumiho, Zest, TY -> 4 top players ----> This equals 15 top players Serral: GSL Super Tournament 1: Innovation, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players Blizzcon: sOs, Zest, Dark, Rogue, Stats -> 5 top players Homestory Cup XVIII: Bly, soO, Trap, Bunny, Hellraiser, souL, Taeja, uThermal, Bunny, Innovation -> 2 top players ----> This equals 10 top players One probably could argue about, which opponents should be counted as "top players", but this goes for both Maru and Serral. So if you include top WCS players and some more Koreans, then the winrates would rise for both. So I conclude again: In 2018 Maru was dominant for a longer period of time in which he faced tougher competition more often than Serral did in his shorter period of dominance. You conveniently left out how Serral won over Rogue, Impact, Neeb, Zest and Trap before he lost vs Classic at IEM, yet you were quick to note how Maru gloriously defeated the likes of Solar and soO (who accomplished nothing in 2018) And sure if WCS doesnt count then one can argue all sorts of thing. But it does count. The very least you would need to take into considerations his win against foreigners who made it into GSL ro16 or above. So if you add the IEM wins and the WCS wins over GSL participants, Serral passed Maru by your own absurd and subjective criteria. Serral went undefeated for a very long time, while Maru's 3 GSL and one LAN win came with interruptions when he was knocked out in the big LAN's including Blizzcon. If you just cherry-pick the data, then sure you can make all kind of stats, and prove all kinds of points. Here let me show you: Serral won 7 out of the 8 big tournaments he entered in 2018, that's 87,5%, and it does include the World champion-ship Maru won 4 of the 7 big tournaments he entered, that's 57% and does not include the World champion-ship Serral's performance is 20+% better OR Serral won 6 big tournaments in a row. Maru won 2 in a row. Serral's performance is 200% better The way I see it, Serral haters have 2 main arguments: 1. he didnt participate in normal GSL seasons, cuz surely he couldnt have won there. Which I find to be a lame ass argument, cuz it cannot be proved/ disproved, and other, less accomplished foreigners could do well in GSL. 2. He didnt win at IEM at the start of the year. Which i again find a lame ass argument, since nobody was calling him best player of the world in february, and it was a good showing even there, and straight up wins for the rest of the year.
Wow - chill man. I'm not hating anyone. Serral is great and seems to be a cool guy and is a blessing for SC2.
I didn't "left out" anything. I clearly defined periods of times in which Serral and Maru were undisputedly dominant. At WESG and IEM Serral performed well but still didn't reach that state of dominance he achieved later. And if I were to include wins vs Impact and Trap, I easily could inflate Maru's winrate, too. I counted soO for Serral, too. And saying that soO did accomplish nothing in 2018 while he made it to the finals of HSC XVII and had a Ro8 appearance in GSL, is just insane. Same goes for Solar, who made it to 4th place at GSL Super Tournament 2 and at HSC XVII and was extremely close to making it to Blizzcon. What did Trap achieve in comparison? And while I love Impact he really doesn't have an impact on this discussion at all.
Serral won 7 out of 9 (not 8) tournaments he entered in 2018. 4 of those tournaments weren't vs the toughest competition. 5 of those tournaments happened before he proved that he can dominate vs the toughest competition. He won 3 out of 5 tournaments vs the toughest competition.
Maru won 4 out of 8 tournamens he entered in 2018. All of those were vs the toughest competition.
edit: I think it is the best to compare Maru's and Serrals periods of dominance in which they won (almost for Maru) everything. The rest of their year gives us the same impression: they were really strong players.
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On March 10 2019 18:40 fronkschnonk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2019 17:44 Geo.Rion wrote:On March 10 2019 05:50 fronkschnonk wrote:On March 10 2019 04:07 terribleplayer1 wrote:No fronk, you're wrong, he did face better koreans, and he did have a considerably better winrate, the only thing you're right that I never disagreed is that Maru played more koreans. https://i.gyazo.com/fbcc934fbd03ffd4bce82601a098de06.png Ok, let me specify: Marus winrate vs top Koreans in offline matches wasn't considerably worse. Nor did Serral face better Koreans more often than Maru. Ok, to be transparent, here are my criteria: 1) Only offline matches which are part of real competition are taken into account. Online matches always have the flaw of not being pretigeous (and therefore not being taken as serious) and players hiding their best strats. Showmatches also aren't taken as serious quite often. This is why I'll exclude Serral's Bo1-win vs Maru in the GSL vs The World team showmatch. Also offline qualifiers which aren't streamed are to be excluded. They often take place in unfavorable times, vs unknown opponents and the only goal is to qualify, not to show your best starcraft. 2) To compare Serral's and Maru's dominance in 2018, we'll first have to determine their respective period of dominance: Maru: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL Season 1 (march 10th). It ended with his 3rd consecutive GSL championship win vs TY (september 15th) (his streak could also include his win vs Rogue at GSL Supertournament 2, but sinc he lost vs sOs in the same tournament two days later, it's fair to exclude this win). This period of domincance lasted over 6 months in which Maru only lost 2 offline matches. Serral: His dominance began with the Ro8 of GSL vs The World (August 4th). It ended with his victory at Homestory Cup vs Innovation (November 25th). (One could argue, if it is fair that Serrals period of dominance was artificially ended by the end of competition in the end of 2018. But we only can deal with data we have, not with data that might have been if things had been different. Serral's performance at IEM showed that he - while still being a top player - is not as dominant anymore). This period of dominance lasted over 4 months in which Serral incredibly lost no offline match at all. 3) Now we have to count the top players they won against, in order to value their win streaks: Maru: GSL S1 Ro8: sOs, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players WESG: Nerchio, Scarlett, Showtime, Reynor, Serral, Dark -> 2 (?) top players GSL Super Tournament 1: soO -> 1 top player GSL S2: Zanster, Dear, Patience, Solar, Rogue, Classic, Zest -> 5 top players GSL vs The World: soO, Showtime -> 1 top player GSL S3: Forte, Leenock, Neeb, Reynor, Gumiho, Zest, TY -> 4 top players ----> This equals 15 top players Serral: GSL Super Tournament 1: Innovation, Dark, Stats -> 3 top players Blizzcon: sOs, Zest, Dark, Rogue, Stats -> 5 top players Homestory Cup XVIII: Bly, soO, Trap, Bunny, Hellraiser, souL, Taeja, uThermal, Bunny, Innovation -> 2 top players ----> This equals 10 top players One probably could argue about, which opponents should be counted as "top players", but this goes for both Maru and Serral. So if you include top WCS players and some more Koreans, then the winrates would rise for both. So I conclude again: In 2018 Maru was dominant for a longer period of time in which he faced tougher competition more often than Serral did in his shorter period of dominance. You conveniently left out how Serral won over Rogue, Impact, Neeb, Zest and Trap before he lost vs Classic at IEM, yet you were quick to note how Maru gloriously defeated the likes of Solar and soO (who accomplished nothing in 2018) And sure if WCS doesnt count then one can argue all sorts of thing. But it does count. The very least you would need to take into considerations his win against foreigners who made it into GSL ro16 or above. So if you add the IEM wins and the WCS wins over GSL participants, Serral passed Maru by your own absurd and subjective criteria. Serral went undefeated for a very long time, while Maru's 3 GSL and one LAN win came with interruptions when he was knocked out in the big LAN's including Blizzcon. If you just cherry-pick the data, then sure you can make all kind of stats, and prove all kinds of points. Here let me show you: Serral won 7 out of the 8 big tournaments he entered in 2018, that's 87,5%, and it does include the World champion-ship Maru won 4 of the 7 big tournaments he entered, that's 57% and does not include the World champion-ship Serral's performance is 20+% better OR Serral won 6 big tournaments in a row. Maru won 2 in a row. Serral's performance is 200% better The way I see it, Serral haters have 2 main arguments: 1. he didnt participate in normal GSL seasons, cuz surely he couldnt have won there. Which I find to be a lame ass argument, cuz it cannot be proved/ disproved, and other, less accomplished foreigners could do well in GSL. 2. He didnt win at IEM at the start of the year. Which i again find a lame ass argument, since nobody was calling him best player of the world in february, and it was a good showing even there, and straight up wins for the rest of the year. Wow - chill man. I'm not hating anyone. Serral is great and seems to be a cool guy and is a blessing for SC2. I didn't "left out" anything. I clearly defined periods of times in which Serral and Maru were undisputedly dominant. At WESG and IEM Serral performed well but still didn't reach that state of dominance he achieved later. And if I were to include wins vs Impact and Trap, I easily could inflate Maru's winrate, too. I counted soO for Serral, too. And saying that soO did accomplish nothing in 2018 while he made it to the finals of HSC XVII and had a Ro8 appearance in GSL, is just insane. Same goes for Solar, who made it to 4th place at GSL Super Tournament 2 and at HSC XVII and was extremely close to making it to Blizzcon. What did Trap achieve in comparison? And while I love Impact he really doesn't have an impact on this discussion at all. Serral won 7 out of 9 (not 8) tournaments he entered in 2018. 4 of those tournaments weren't vs the toughest competition. 5 of those tournaments happened before he proved that he can dominate vs the toughest competition. He won 3 out of 5 tournaments vs the toughest competition. Maru won 4 out of 8 tournamens he entered in 2018. All of those were vs the toughest competition. edit: I think it is the best to compare Maru's and Serrals periods of dominance in which they won (almost for Maru) everything. The rest of their year gives us the same impression: they were really strong players.
As i said, you can crunch the data any way you want and end up concluding the presupposition you started out with.
You make some premises, that are not fact based or objective, than you use them to prove your point. You use one of your opinions to prove that your other opinion is factually correct.
You decided which periods are relevant for the 2 players, then decided which opponents matter. That s all fine and good, and if that's how you see it and how you feel about it, that s your business, but please dispense with the idea that it's anything more than highly subjective, personal opinion.
One last note, not sure which TLer started this "weekend tournament" misnomer, but it's really annoying how it stuck.
WCS isnt a weekend tournament, nor is IEM, WESG and definitely not Blizzcon. The only "weekend" tournament there were are the GSL super-tournaments which indeed are a straight up single elim-bracket, games being played out one after another, it's over in less than 2 days.
The rest are tournaments that have main event that last a week, with different qualifier leading up to it. Most of the times the pros know their groups or at least part of their groups in advance, way before the event starts, they can prepare specific builds for specific players and maps, if they feel like it.
Than at the main event they usually have a day or two, but the very least a few hours to prepare for the new opponents, to be sure it's not enough to come up with a new build and test it in optimal condition 50-100 times, but it's not like you're going in blind and being hit by opponents one after another.
The idea that a week long tournament (not taking into consideration qualifiers) which features a mix of opponents that you're aware in advance, and others that you arent, is somehow clearly inferior format to the GSL normal seasons, cuz there you have a week to prepare for the match, and the winner can handpick his group for next season... it s just silly and dishonest.
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EPT
