Circuit Showdown at WCS Austin

Written by: Soularion

It's been a while, hasn't it? Since Serral triumphed at WCS Leipzig back in January, five major offline tournaments have been held, as well as an entire GSL Code S season. We saw Classic nearly rise to become the best player in the world, only to have a transcendent Maru seize the throne for himself. We saw Scarlett's fairy tale run at IEM PyeongChang, where she won a championship at long last. We saw Rogue shamed in the GSL, only to see him restored to glory at IEM Katowice.

With so much having transpired since the last WCS Circuit championship, it's a good time to examine the field of competitors and how their individual stories have progressed since Leipzig. This article will look primarily at the sixteen qualified/seeded players.

Europe: WCS Challenger

Serral: With all the turmoil in the StarCraft II world since Leipzig, it's almost unbelievable that Serral has remained on top of the international scene. The Finnish phenom has done much to enhance his reputation: he bloodied Korean competitors at the IEM World Championship (top four finish) and WESG (3rd place), played two of the best games of his career in Nation Wars against ShoWTimE, and went 14-1 in the European Challenger tournament to qualify for WCS Austin. Since the 2018 competitive season started, he has a 190-48 record for a ludicrous 79.83% win rate. There's no question that Serral is THE best WCS Circuit player at the moment, and is experiencing one of the highest peaks ever for a foreigner. Anything short of a championship would be a shock and a disappointment for Serral.

uThermal: He's back! After uThermal fell short of expectations in 2017 and started his 2018 season with a round-of-sixteen elimination at Leipzig, it's good to see the Dutch Terran enjoying a run of good form. He very nearly reached the playoffs at IEM Katowice, where he won group stage matches against Code S players Hurricane and INnoVation. He's followed that up with more solid showings in WESG, NationWars, and a second place finish in the European Challenger tournament. Big wins over a renewed ShoWTimE and PtitDrogo suggest that uThermal is back in good graces with the TvP spirits, which is important considering uThermal's inconsistency in TvT. Even though brackets and match-ups play a huge part in the WCS Circuit playoffs, uThermal should be a dark horse to make a deep run at WCS Austin.



PtitDrogo: Another player who has struggled with consistency is PtitDrogo. He made it to BlizzCon in 2016 (due to Polt & Hydra declining their invites, but still), only to drown in mediocrity throughout 2017. It seemed like he was in danger of falling into complete irrelevance after he bombed hard at WCS Leipzig and even harder at IEM Katowice. So securing a seed at WCS Austin with a BO5 win against a very-much-still-good Elazer in WCS Challenger is a significant and encouraging accomplishment, even if it was followed by him losing in PvT against uThermal (so what's really new?). It might be too early to get excited about PtitDrogo given some of his other online results, but then again, he DID pull through when it really mattered in Challenger. It will be interesting to see what version of PtitDrogo shows up in Austin.

HeRoMaRinE: Europe lived up to its reputation as the deepest region in WCS Challenger, with star players Nerchio, Elazer, and ShoWTimE all falling in the quarterfinals. HeRoMaRinE might have had the most impressive 'underdog' run, defeating Nerchio and handing Serral his only map-loss of the entire tournament. But really, HeRoMaRinE is only an underdog if you're looking through the lens of 2017, where he barely played in tournaments at all. He's had a good 2018 so far, reaching the RO16 at WCS Leipzig (notable wins over Nerchio and Harstem), and advancing from a stacked open bracket at IEM Katowice (notable wins over Snute and Elazer) to reach the group stage. uThermal is the European Terran who attracts (and creates) the most buzz, but HeRoMaRinE might be the more solid player. He has a penchant for showing up in big moments, and WCS Austin might give him his biggest moment yet.

North America: WCS Challenger

Neeb: While Serral was utterly dominant in the European qualifier, Neeb actually had to navigate several threats on his way to winning the North American Challenger tournament. Not only did he drop maps to JonSnow and puCK, but MaSa took him all the way to game seven in a wonky and intensely entertaining series. It was a series in which Neeb's sheer 'clutchness' shined through. In 2017 Neeb went a ridiculous 10-1 in elimination games—games where, had he lost, he would've been out of the tournament. This is the Neeb we saw against MaSa; it didn't really matter what shenanigans MaSa pulled out, because Neeb—with his icy blood and killer instinct—was always going to win the series. Serral might be the most dominant player on the WCS Circuit, but Neeb can still challenge him if he can summon that clutch factor from last year.

MaSa: Meet North America's most confounding player. Last year, during the WCS Valencia 2017 qualifier, MaSa defeated Neeb and Scarlett to take first place in North America. Since then, he's floated between being an RO16 punching bag and barely even qualifying for WCS. However, the skillful, dangerous version of MaSa reappeared at the latest WCS Challenger tournament, with MaSa's back to back series against Scarlett and Neeb standing out as some of the most entertaining matches of 2018 (or disgusting, depending on your point of view). The Canadian Terran threw cheese after cheese against two of NA's all-time best players and made them sweat buckets. While MaSa couldn't quite overcome the wall of Neeb, he went down while putting up a terrific fight. Terran has always felt a bit underrepresented in the foreign scene, so fans of bio, mech, and bunker rushes should hope that MaSa will be just as lively come June.

Scarlett: What a rollercoaster year for Scarlett. She rode into WCS Leipzig on a wave of hype, only to wipe out horribly in her then-best matchup ZvZ. Just when it seemed hope was lost, she proved that the hype was 100% deserved by winning IEM PyeongChang... ...and then saw her ZvZ fail her once more at IEM Katowice. So, which is it? Has Scarlett actually shored up her ZvZ vulnerability, or will it continue to be a thorn in her side? Since PyeongChang, Scarlett gone through an uneventful handful of months, showing the kind of humdrum form she's been prone to lapsing into for the past two years. But IEM PyeongChang showed us she still has that magic; faintly glowing but definitely still there. As long as there's that chance she could transform into a true championship-caliber player, it's worthwhile to keep your eyes on her.

puCK: puCK enjoyed a bit of luck during Challenger, as TRUE's forfeiture of Challenger left him in a qualifier group with no elite opponents. Still, his beatdown of Semper came as a surprise, and he put up more resistance against Neeb than many expected. So, is puCK 'back'? In an era where most top players didn't come into prominence until Legacy of the Void, puCK certainly has a lot more history than most. His last RO16 in WCS was all the way back in early 2014, over four years ago. It won't be easy for him to reach that mark again at WCS Austin, but if group/match-up fortune favors him again, puCK certainly has a chance.

Latin America: Copa América

SpeCial: While North America and Europe gave us a lot of upsets, those who favor predictability will be glad to see SpeCial in his proper place: utterly dominating Latin America, including a 4-0 thrashing of his favorite punching bag, Kelazhur. SpeCial has made five semifinals now, but he still hasn't been able to get over the next hurdle to reach the finals. Somehow, each semifinal is less promising than the last. When SpeCial first lost to Neeb in five games at WCS Austin 2017, he looked like a player who would soon be finals bound. The next season he actually eliminated Neeb in the quarters, only to be smashed by Snute in the semis. At BlizzCon, he suffered an ugly, 0-3 semifinal loss to soO. Then, at Leipzig, the path to the finals seemed clear at last when Neeb was eliminated, but Serral sprang forth to crush SpeCial's dreams. SpeCial is still a very, very good player; the most accomplished foreign Terran by a mile (although uThermal and HeRoMaRinE are showing great form) and unchallenged in his region. But, he seems stuck in the purgatory of the semifinals on the WCS Circuit. Even if both Neeb and Serral were eliminated, you'd expect the jinx to haunt SpeCial still. That's a bad omen.

Kelazhur: Kelazhur is probably 2018's most surprising victim. In a year that's seen a lot of 2017's under-performers (Serral, uThermal, Scarlett, even PtitDrogo now) come back into prominence, Kelazhur is one of the few players who have taken a step back. Consistency used to be Kelazhur's greatest strength—last year he made it to Blizzcon because he made top eight at every single WCS Circuit stop. However, Kelazhur was eliminated early in the first 2018 tournament at Leipzig, and none of Katowice, WESG, or Copa America did much to restore Kelazhur's reputation. He seems now like a player who can't keep up with the recent uptick in play, either falling behind the field or not quite finding his place in the meta, and it's tough to imagine him miraculously solving his problems in time for WCS Austin.

Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau and Japan Combined Qualifier

Has: Has has become a flat-out legend at this point. He's flummoxed so many supposedly superior players—Jaedong, MMA, and Maru to name a few—and he's done so playing the most predictably unpredictable style in StarCraft II. You know he's going to do something stupid, but what is it going to be? After some amusing near-success in GSL qualifiers (including wins against Elazer and Ryung, and somehow taking a map off of INnoVation), he's back on the WCS Circuit. Has isn't always a lock to win the mixed-Asian qualifier (sometimes, he off-races for no discernible reason), but this time he managed to dominate and take first place with a 10-1 record. What can you expect from the fan 'favorite' when he goes up against the rest of the world? Stupidity, upsets, and entertainment.

ExpecT: The #2 seed from the combined-Asian qualifier has the unfortunate legacy of being the WCS welfare seed, with not a single player advancing to the RO16 from that position in 2017. This time, ExpecT steps up to the plate. After getting upset by GogojOey during the WCS Leipzig qualifier, ExpecT got revenge on him and beat players such as Vaisravana and ButAlways on route to his WCS Austin ticket. Being one of the least-known names in the seeded part of the tournament, ExpecT is truly difficult to predict. He's not a cheese monster like Has or Nice, but he does have the advantage of being largely unscouted by his opponents. It will be hard for ExpecT to fully redeem the #2 Taiwan/HK/Macau/Japan seed, but perhaps he can surprise his opponents and earn his region some more respect.

China: Gold Series Pro-League

TIME: China had an absolutely wild GPL Season 1, with BreakingGG, Jieshi and Cyan joining TIME in the round-of-four instead of other more veteran names such as XiGua, XY, TooDming or iAsonu. TIME was there to clean up, though, going 10-0 in playoffs and securing his place as the best Chinese player in the scene right now. Or, so you'd think. GPL Season 1 was held back in late March, and the SECOND season of GPL has already come and gone (with WCS Valencia seeding completed). In that tournament, TIME looked significantly more vulnerable, dropping an early series to Shana and losing to iAsonu in the quarterfinals. This sucks, because TIME was in great form towards the end of March (looking at his NationWars results, and his domestic dominance) where as he's been a lot more shaky domestically as of late. If the TIME of March returns, expect a surprisingly fun underdog story and perhaps a RO16 to quarterfinals result.

BreakingGG: Since coming in second during GPL, BreakingGG has gotten utterly dominated by basically every good player he's gone up against (except Patience—damn, dude), including losing in the group stages of the next season to Firefly. If TIME disappointed after his win, BreakingGG looks like a speed bump in an otherwise very smooth scene, a temporary mistake that was quickly amended. This, however, gives us the (somewhat) entertaining storyline of BreakingGG going to Austin looking for some sort of return on investment from his actually-quite-good GPL Season 1 run. It's tough to be optimistic, but just keep this in mind: GogojOey once took a map off Cham, and Yours was a game away from playoffs. Anything can happen in WCS. Well, ALMOST happen. Good luck, BreakinGG! You're gonna need it. BreakingGG suffered the terrible Chinese visa curse and has been replaced by Jieshi.

Oceania, South-East Asia Combined Qualifier

Seither: Probe is down. I repeat, Probe is down. The best player in the SEA scene the past couple years actually got eliminated by the combination of NXZ and HuT. Seither is the natural replacement, as he's was Probe's closest rival in the past, and seems to have the highest ceiling in the scene outside of Probe and iaguz. He took care of business in predictable manner, going 8-1 in the qualifiers. He's had mixed performance at previous WCS events (taking a game off DnS: good. Losing to PiLiPiLi: bad. Forfeiting because of fear of flying: Huh?). By the way, isn't it crazy how every single region had a Terran in the finals? What happened to foreign Terrans all of a sudden? [Editor's note: the very innocent and pure Soularion actually asks this question out of genuine curiosity and not because he's a balance-baiting troll. Pat him on the head.]

NXZ: Now, that is a name I have not heard in a long, long time. Back in 2015, NXZ actually qualified for WCS Season 2 in what was then a huge upset, having won an entertaining 5-game series against heavy favorite PiG. Then, he got bounced out 0-4 in a not-particularly-difficult group, but maybe he'll have some success on his second try. He beat Probe, Yours and Demi in the qualifiers, which is about a good a run as you're going to get nowadays. Still, it's nice to see someone get a second chance. It bears repeating: if Yours and GogojOey could take games, NXZ definitely can.

Fighting From the Round of 80

So, you may have noticed that the pool of seeded players is missing some familiar names. TRUE forfeited Challenger, Probe suffered a big upset in SEA, China went through generation change, and Europe did Europe things. Don't worry, though: A lot of your favorite players are still playing at the event! They'll have to brave the open-sign up groups/round of eighty, but playing amateurs and fans rarely poses a problem to progamers. The real danger of coming up from the round of eighty is seeding when advancing to the later rounds. All it takes is one tough group, and it could be 'seeya in Valencia!' for a championship contender.

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