EPTStats: KeSPA's Custodian - Rank 3 - Road to BlizzCon - Pag…
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zealotstim
United States455 Posts
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FrkFrJss
Canada1205 Posts
On October 24 2017 13:30 Phredxor wrote: What a swell thread. I'd probably have Stats at #2 myself but i think the top 3 are more or less interchangeable. I'd say that even with herO and Dark not having the same results in a similar time period, I think 1-2 could be any of Stats, Rogue, or INnoVation, and 3-5 could be any of herO and Dark and the previously mentioned trio. Of course, Dark definitely looks less scary after his loss in ST2, but with his close losses to both Stats and INnoVation, he's up there in the top 5. Even though the Master's Coliseum was an online tournament, it was still worth 10K. But when combined with his results in ST2, herO beat Dark, INnoVation, Rogue, and soO in a tournament within the last three weeks. The Master's Coliseum was online, but a 10K prizepool is nothing to dismiss so easily. It's not like the Ting Open 4, where Neeb offraced against Scarlett in the winner's finals. I think the top Koreans are incredibly close with TY and soO within shouting distance and GuMiho calling from a block or two away. | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On October 24 2017 14:34 FrkFrJss wrote: I'd say that even with herO and Dark not having the same results in a similar time period, I think 1-2 could be any of Stats, Rogue, or INnoVation, and 3-5 could be any of herO and Dark and the previously mentioned trio. Of course, Dark definitely looks less scary after his loss in ST2, but with his close losses to both Stats and INnoVation, he's up there in the top 5. Even though the Master's Coliseum was an online tournament, it was still worth 10K. But when combined with his results in ST2, herO beat Dark, INnoVation, Rogue, and soO in a tournament within the last three weeks. The Master's Coliseum was online, but a 10K prizepool is nothing to dismiss so easily. It's not like the Ting Open 4, where Neeb offraced against Scarlett in the winner's finals. I think the top Koreans are incredibly close with TY and soO within shouting distance and GuMiho calling from a block or two away. Gumiho used to just shout louder, until that upjumped nouveau riche kid Neeb bought up the empty lot and built a new house there. | ||
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lptuser
5 Posts
Name me one reason that stats would use his real strategy and build in those two tournaments. He didn’t need the points. Not starleague titles to win and the prize combined wouldnt beat winning one round at blizzcon, so why risk leaking real builds for opponents to study. It was in his best interest to play standard or fake builds and gave out as little information as possible. If you watched his ST2 game, you know what I mean. OTOH, players like hero is known to perform well at this kind of low stake tournaments(stakes are high for rogue though in ST2) By the same token, Rogue’s result in master’s coliseum should weigh very little in powerrank. Same goes for innovation (he had reserve in losing to Rogue and was almost intentionally not defending oracles in his TVP in master of coliseum). For Rogue, all that we knew was he was giving it all in ST2, and GSL S3, since he needed every point he could get. The most recent data points you should use for players like Stats and inno are GSL s3 and SSL s2 because they compete for starleague championships(prestige and legacy) and are saving it for blizzcon(high prize pool and big stage). So to me, rogue’s current form while impressive(winning a tournament where exactly 4 players really cared so much about), is less so than Stats and Inno. Let alone the overall result. It is easy to say Stats is just a consistent good player. LOL, the guy peaked all year and had the luxury to cruise in small stages. Rogue/Dark for #3/4 is a toss up for me. I view Dark’s loss vs all-out Inno in GSL more impressive(Dark dictated the games) than Rogue winning vs a lousy Inno who was experimenting builds(again if you look at actual game content you know what I mean here) in ST2. | ||
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Rolltide
United States447 Posts
I think it is retarded to discount a match just because it was close. The money difference between 1st and 2nd place in Anaheim is $140,000! Close does not mean shit it is who wins! Who wants to lose Premier league by one goal or the super bowl by a point or the world series by a run? You still lost! I'm not a Stats fan boy as one poster calls some of us. I'm certainly not anti Rogue. What you have in that match is a cool collected player in Stats vs a player who thought that losing would be the end of his Blizzcon chances. Rogue was emotional in that match. Now Rogue does have a history of playing well at Blizzcon. He made the semi finals in 2015. He beat Maru 3-0 and then beat Hydra 3-2 before getting spanked by sOs 3-0 in the semi final. | ||
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Rolltide
United States447 Posts
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lptuser
5 Posts
On October 24 2017 04:45 Pandain wrote: Rogue looked craaaaazy good against the absolute best players in a high stakes tournament where his blizzcon chances were on the line. Rogue played well in ST2 no doubt about it. High stake tournaments? No. Where his blizzcon chances were on the line? Ok maybe stake were high for him, sos, maru and classic. The list ends there, sorry aLive. Rewatch the games without listening to casters’ hypes (“best day in sc2’s history” on ST2’s last day by tastosis, are you kidding me?). I saw Rogue played really well against an Inno who was experimenting and hiding builds (look at how different his builds were in GSL semi/finals when he wa taking his opponents seriously). He also looked good vs hero who usually peaks in a $10k tournament so I will give you that. On October 24 2017 04:45 Pandain wrote: And I'm , for better or worse, ignoring most results between super tournament and blizzcon. They are unquestionably suspect in their validity since people are preparing their real and final builds for blizzcon. What made you so convinced in the validity of results by players not named Rogue, sOs, Classic, and Maru in ST2? | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On October 24 2017 19:07 lptuser wrote: Rogue played well in ST2 no doubt about it. High stake tournaments? No. Where his blizzcon chances were on the line? Ok maybe stake were high for him, sos, maru and classic. The list ends there, sorry aLive. Rewatch the games without listening to casters’ hypes (“best day in sc2’s history” on ST2’s last day by tastosis, are you kidding me?). I saw Rogue played really well against an Inno who was experimenting and hiding builds (look at how different his builds were in GSL semi/finals when he wa taking his opponents seriously). He also looked good vs hero who usually peaks in a $10k tournament so I will give you that. What made you so convinced in the validity of results by players not named Rogue, sOs, Classic, and Maru in ST2? seems like you are making excuses, no one would give up a chance of victory in a GSL even a super tournament just to hide builds for a tournament 1 month away. | ||
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lptuser
5 Posts
On October 24 2017 19:10 Zaros wrote: seems like you are making excuses, no one would give up a chance of victory in a GSL even a super tournament just to hide builds for a tournament 1 month away. Seems like you dismiss points as excuses. I know it’s called GSL super tournament but its similarity to GSL ends there. Who would give up a chance of victory in ST2 just for blizzcon? Reread this sentence and tell me you are serious. But I didn’t answer that question. Stats did and so did Inno. To be fair Rogue played really well that I’n not saying if Stats or Inno played to their full strength they would have won. But it’s clear from actual games that they were experimenting builds. They were executing those builds very seriously, since ST2 was a great practice opportunity for them. But still, I guarantee you they won’t use those builds in Blizzcon(nor did they in GSL S3 vs equal opponents) Again in Korea, STs are at best on the level of Kespa cups: not nearly as prestigious as starleagues. Hence winning it felt like a consolation for Soo. When it was the last offline tournament before the real deal, its validity as measure of players’ real strength should be taken with a grain of salt to say the least (again not so much for the mentioned 4 players) Edit: Did I mention players like herO peaks at $10k tournaments and other guys turn it up on big stages? Hint: the reason is not that herO is ‘unlucky’ in his peak timings  . Top dogs simply aren’t 100% serious sometimes. | ||
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Phredxor
New Zealand15076 Posts
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lptuser
5 Posts
If you take 80% current form and 20% overall achievement Stats still wins by having one of best results any player had in any year and arguably the same recent form. If not, Rogue might as well be rank 1 since the same argument would fail harder for ranking inno above him. My rant ends with this post. Been lurking on TL for years but this pr is just too ridiculous so I registered to post. Stats gets too little credit for doing so much(being the professor on a team with TY and being ace on a team with zest, somehow still giving westerners the impression that he’s just a hardworking great player, best individual yearly result in history and gets ranked #3 due to not performing as well in tournaments like ST..). Sorry for my bad english. I understand sometimes the ranking like this needs elements of surprise and if that’s the case I fell for it but I had to. | ||
Olli
Austria24417 Posts
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Sakat
Croatia1599 Posts
I'd say it mostly comes down to what you value more. Something I would like to point out is that Rogue in relation to the aforementioned two has a clear weakness in his play (historically) and that is somewhat poor strategic decision-making and mentality in a long series, especially in a preparation based tournament. He has a tendancy to try overly risky builds too often per series and fall apart mentally. That is why he was such a monster in PL which is bo1, but never got past the ro8 in a Starleague setting. I believe that given time to prepare both Stats and Inno would come out on top of Rogue 9/10 times. But since Blizzcon is not a prep based tournament, I would say that their chances are quite equal from the ro4 onwards, but should they meet earlier I would favour Stats/Inno. The top three really is a toss-up in my eyes. I would prefer Rogue it #3 (due to the reason I just stated) and Stats at #2 but dependig on criteria it could easily be just as likely to have Rogue #1 | ||
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Ej_
47656 Posts
Hurricane better tremble in fear. | ||
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Wintex
Norway16835 Posts
Stats is gonna win tho. Let`s go. | ||
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highsis
259 Posts
Unlike other physical sports, progamers lose forms too quickly often without reasons. Hopefully it's the case of jetlag but I fear it isn't. | ||
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