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TLO challenges Avilo - Page 8

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TaKeTV
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Germany1199 Posts
June 10 2017 23:02 GMT
#141
If you saw the avilo games in the WCS qualifier versus Zergs that are way worse compared to TLO he still managed to get insanely pressured or lost maps to basically roaches while I wouldnt even call the zerg gameplay well rounded. If he is not directly playing a counter with the knowledge of restrictions TLO has there is a real good chance TLO will just win 5-0.

People thinking he will simply nydus really just underline their lack of knowledge with the reason being that the nydus is actually fairly easy to counter. Any cyclone opening or reactor cyclone will destroy it.
Commentator
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28665 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-10 23:23:04
June 10 2017 23:18 GMT
#142
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
Moderator
TT1
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
Canada10009 Posts
June 10 2017 23:45 GMT
#143
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.


hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do.
ab = tl(i) + tl(pc), the grand answer to every tl.net debate
TaKeTV
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Germany1199 Posts
June 10 2017 23:54 GMT
#144
On June 11 2017 08:45 TT1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.


hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do.


While I believe TLO's mechanics are far superior avilo's mech style isn't really that heavy on mechanics but I feel his strategy is really lacking, especially if we consider mass roaches. He is going hellion heavy with 2 factories and late tanks which should be the biggest issue. At least from the WCS games I saw.

But we will never find out because he wont play :S
Commentator
Hypertension
Profile Joined April 2011
United States802 Posts
June 10 2017 23:56 GMT
#145
On June 10 2017 21:55 xelnaga_empire wrote:
Avilo was watching the SSL finals tonight and was in the Youtube chat. More or less, he doesn't think he will get anything out of it. According to Avilo, if he wins, it was because TLO is handicapped. If TLO wins, then it will all be just a show to embarrass Avilo. He is not even interested in attempting to win the $600 (if that was the last reported amount of the prize from everybody contributing), even though he isn't risking his own money.

My guess is, Avilo values his pride more than the potential of winning $600. I would guess if the people who are donating money to the prize offer Avilo a minimum amount of money to simply participate in this show match, in addition to the total prize, Avilo may consider it. I don't know what this "minimum amount" is but you guys could probably negotiate this with Avilo. This way, Avilo walks away with something, even if he loses.

You can also increase the prize but I'm guessing Avilo feels even if you increase the prize, he may still walk away with nothing. This is why I suggest offering him a "minimum amount" for simply participating, separate of the total prize. Otherwise, I don't think this match is going to happen.


Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly.
Buy boots first. Boots good item.
ShambhalaWar
Profile Joined August 2013
United States930 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-11 00:10:17
June 11 2017 00:09 GMT
#146
On June 11 2017 08:01 DieuCure wrote:
Avilo is right, accepting the challenge wouldnt be a good thing for him.

+ not really a smart mouv from TLO ...


Why would it be a bad thing to accept his challenge?

I'd bet tons of people would watch, my guess is that it would be his peak viewership (or really close to it).
Cascade
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
Australia5405 Posts
June 11 2017 00:37 GMT
#147
On June 11 2017 00:39 ChristianS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2017 17:31 Cascade wrote:
On June 10 2017 08:55 blade55555 wrote:
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote:
TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?

there is that possibility lol.


The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.

If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.

So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.

This assumes they're independent probabilities though, right? But if you win game one and really tilt your opponent you'll have better odds for the next game. So maybe Avilo's chances are only 15% for game 1, but if he wins game 1 he'll tilt TLO and have 33% chance in game 2. Then if he wins that TLO will REALLY go on tilt, and avilo will have ~60% chance each game.

More significantly, I think a lot of the uncertainty in this case is in whether TLO's limitation is too great for his skill to overcome. So I might figure there's like a 2% chance that avilo finds some goody composition like hellion/ghost that just never, ever, ever dies to ling/queen, but if that happens he'll have a 90% chance every game because he just can't die. But if avilo doesn't find something like that it's like 100% that he doesn't win a game. So TLO would reasonably have 98% confidence that he'd win all 5 games, but avilo would have about a 1% chance of a 5-0.

I really just want TLO to do like a weekly TLAttack and play with goofy limitations against average players.

Yeah, it assumes independence. They did a study on that by looking at penalty shots in NBA, looking for "hot hands", checking if a player was more likely to land the penalty shot if they hit the previous one. iirc, there was some controversy on the analysis I remember, they first claimed an effect in the paper (as is customary...) but proper reanalysis then removed the effect. Or was it the other way around? Don't remember... Have a look at the wiki entry if you want to dig deeper. Either way the suggested signal was pretty small, so shouldn't affect it too much. It's very possible that avilo (and TLO for that matter) is less mentally composed than an NBA penalty shooter, so definitely a concern with the calculation, although probably not breaking it completely.

And yes, uncertainty in the single-game winrate propagates in fifth power to the 5-0 probability. As we saw, difference between 40% and 60% in single game makes the difference between 1% or 8% for 5-0. And as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty even in the single-game win probability. My argument was based on the confidence in TLO's challenge. I'd say TLO himself thinks he has at least 50% probability of 5-0. Which translates (with independence assumption) into a 87% single game winrate and 4*10^-5 probability for 0-5. So if we trust TLOs judgement, it'll be well below 1% (even accounting for reasonable tilt effects). As you say though, maybe TLOs estimate is off for the single-game winrate, and at that point it can be anything. And it's probably fair to say that it's more than 1% probability that TLOs estimate is quite off.

I also want TLattack back!! TLOwnage with the nuke rush and all that! :D
KaiserChuck
Profile Joined April 2011
United States79 Posts
June 11 2017 00:40 GMT
#148
On June 11 2017 08:56 Hypertension wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 10 2017 21:55 xelnaga_empire wrote:
Avilo was watching the SSL finals tonight and was in the Youtube chat. More or less, he doesn't think he will get anything out of it. According to Avilo, if he wins, it was because TLO is handicapped. If TLO wins, then it will all be just a show to embarrass Avilo. He is not even interested in attempting to win the $600 (if that was the last reported amount of the prize from everybody contributing), even though he isn't risking his own money.

My guess is, Avilo values his pride more than the potential of winning $600. I would guess if the people who are donating money to the prize offer Avilo a minimum amount of money to simply participate in this show match, in addition to the total prize, Avilo may consider it. I don't know what this "minimum amount" is but you guys could probably negotiate this with Avilo. This way, Avilo walks away with something, even if he loses.

You can also increase the prize but I'm guessing Avilo feels even if you increase the prize, he may still walk away with nothing. This is why I suggest offering him a "minimum amount" for simply participating, separate of the total prize. Otherwise, I don't think this match is going to happen.


Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly.


He said a few times something to the effect of: Mech is still broken, Solar is trash & Inno is so much better that he could just win with a bio push every game.

In other words: "of course he wins with his mech - but he's not doing it right really but he's so much better than this garbage zerg so he wins anyhow".

It struck me in the moment as exactly what needs to be true so that Avilo can be right & doesn't have to question himself.
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
June 11 2017 00:59 GMT
#149
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.

bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
TaKeTV
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Germany1199 Posts
June 11 2017 01:18 GMT
#150
On June 11 2017 09:59 lolfail9001 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.

bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.


That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment.
Commentator
RKC
Profile Joined June 2012
2848 Posts
June 11 2017 01:48 GMT
#151
Can avilo even take down Livibee?
gg no re thx
ShambhalaWar
Profile Joined August 2013
United States930 Posts
June 11 2017 03:12 GMT
#152
On June 11 2017 08:54 TaKeTV wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2017 08:45 TT1 wrote:
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.


hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do.


While I believe TLO's mechanics are far superior avilo's mech style isn't really that heavy on mechanics but I feel his strategy is really lacking, especially if we consider mass roaches. He is going hellion heavy with 2 factories and late tanks which should be the biggest issue. At least from the WCS games I saw.

But we will never find out because he wont play :S


TakeTV players' lounge cast of the event.

Pls.

Champagne waterfall.

That is all.
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
June 11 2017 06:25 GMT
#153
On June 11 2017 10:18 TaKeTV wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2017 09:59 lolfail9001 wrote:
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.

bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.


That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment.

I know that bio is not viable in BW TvP, that's why i used it.

Playing against even a low GM terran with roach ling? TLO is not making an easy bet, that's for sure.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
ninazerg
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States7291 Posts
June 11 2017 08:24 GMT
#154
On June 11 2017 10:48 RKC wrote:
Can avilo even take down Livibee?


No, I saw the youtube video.

Also, absolutely nothing is at stake here besides egos. The only reason why it would be a "bad move" for either of them to do this is because of ego. Otherwise, it's just a couple of people playing StarCraft 2. JUST DO IT.
"If two pregnant women get into a fist fight, it's like a mecha-battle between two unborn babies." - Fyodor Dostoevsky
WaesumNinja
Profile Joined February 2012
210 Posts
June 11 2017 09:03 GMT
#155
Just looking at this for what it is, If I'm a low GM streamer and a pro gamer is giving me a challenge "bo5" with tongue-in-cheek restrictions I'd totally do it even if there's no prize pool. What other stream offers this?
Vanadiel
Profile Joined April 2012
France961 Posts
June 11 2017 09:05 GMT
#156
On June 11 2017 08:56 Hypertension wrote:

Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly.



Here is your answer :

Low tier masters NA Zerg coulda put up more of a fight vs Innovation in those games...


Penev
Profile Joined October 2012
28475 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-11 09:45:09
June 11 2017 09:44 GMT
#157
low tier masters NA zergs are OP

they only should be allowed to make lings, queens, roaches, overseers and corruptors from now on


I Protoss winner, could it be?
Aunvilgodess
Profile Joined May 2016
954 Posts
June 11 2017 09:56 GMT
#158
On June 11 2017 10:18 TaKeTV wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2017 09:59 lolfail9001 wrote:
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?

also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.

bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.


That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment.


Are you Silvano?
DropTester
Profile Joined April 2010
Australia608 Posts
June 11 2017 10:00 GMT
#159
would be really awesome if this actually happened though
fluidrone
Profile Blog Joined January 2015
France1478 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-11 10:49:52
June 11 2017 10:48 GMT
#160
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
It can happen!
YOU make it happen!
Just make a matcherino pot (you all send the money.. 5 bucks or whatever)
they wait until the pot is around 1k and then agree on how to split the money...

Also please show courtesy towards people trying to save the gamer side of sc2 (grudge matches or other)
i would type the morrow twit ch emote (RIGHT HERE right now) that shows this (u sub to morrow on twit ch, type morUp and you will see the emote! .. + Show Spoiler +
it showcases tlo's head in recognition
. <3

Same for struggling streamers on sc2.. give them an honorable way out
(disclaimer: matcherino (and i get no `$ for typing this) would help provide this service)

if both players get money..

just ask for a best of 7 and both get fiftyfifty on the money donated (they play standard or with the limitations whatever)

and then you ll get your grudge match
(got to do your part is what i mean)

+ Show Spoiler [toomuchinformation] +
mmm choreographed to outsource mmmm goood <3
[image loading]
"not enough rights"
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