EPTPeople thinking he will simply nydus really just underline their lack of knowledge with the reason being that the nydus is actually fairly easy to counter. Any cyclone opening or reactor cyclone will destroy it.
TLO challenges Avilo - Page 8
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TaKeTV
Germany1200 Posts
People thinking he will simply nydus really just underline their lack of knowledge with the reason being that the nydus is actually fairly easy to counter. Any cyclone opening or reactor cyclone will destroy it. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28731 Posts
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter. | ||
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TT1
Canada10012 Posts
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling? also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter. hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do. | ||
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TaKeTV
Germany1200 Posts
On June 11 2017 08:45 TT1 wrote: hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do. While I believe TLO's mechanics are far superior avilo's mech style isn't really that heavy on mechanics but I feel his strategy is really lacking, especially if we consider mass roaches. He is going hellion heavy with 2 factories and late tanks which should be the biggest issue. At least from the WCS games I saw. But we will never find out because he wont play :S | ||
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Hypertension
United States802 Posts
On June 10 2017 21:55 xelnaga_empire wrote: Avilo was watching the SSL finals tonight and was in the Youtube chat. More or less, he doesn't think he will get anything out of it. According to Avilo, if he wins, it was because TLO is handicapped. If TLO wins, then it will all be just a show to embarrass Avilo. He is not even interested in attempting to win the $600 (if that was the last reported amount of the prize from everybody contributing), even though he isn't risking his own money. My guess is, Avilo values his pride more than the potential of winning $600. I would guess if the people who are donating money to the prize offer Avilo a minimum amount of money to simply participate in this show match, in addition to the total prize, Avilo may consider it. I don't know what this "minimum amount" is but you guys could probably negotiate this with Avilo. This way, Avilo walks away with something, even if he loses. You can also increase the prize but I'm guessing Avilo feels even if you increase the prize, he may still walk away with nothing. This is why I suggest offering him a "minimum amount" for simply participating, separate of the total prize. Otherwise, I don't think this match is going to happen. Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly. | ||
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ShambhalaWar
United States930 Posts
On June 11 2017 08:01 DieuCure wrote: Avilo is right, accepting the challenge wouldnt be a good thing for him. + not really a smart mouv from TLO ... Why would it be a bad thing to accept his challenge? I'd bet tons of people would watch, my guess is that it would be his peak viewership (or really close to it). | ||
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Cascade
Australia5405 Posts
On June 11 2017 00:39 ChristianS wrote: This assumes they're independent probabilities though, right? But if you win game one and really tilt your opponent you'll have better odds for the next game. So maybe Avilo's chances are only 15% for game 1, but if he wins game 1 he'll tilt TLO and have 33% chance in game 2. Then if he wins that TLO will REALLY go on tilt, and avilo will have ~60% chance each game. More significantly, I think a lot of the uncertainty in this case is in whether TLO's limitation is too great for his skill to overcome. So I might figure there's like a 2% chance that avilo finds some goody composition like hellion/ghost that just never, ever, ever dies to ling/queen, but if that happens he'll have a 90% chance every game because he just can't die. But if avilo doesn't find something like that it's like 100% that he doesn't win a game. So TLO would reasonably have 98% confidence that he'd win all 5 games, but avilo would have about a 1% chance of a 5-0. I really just want TLO to do like a weekly TLAttack and play with goofy limitations against average players. Yeah, it assumes independence. They did a study on that by looking at penalty shots in NBA, looking for "hot hands", checking if a player was more likely to land the penalty shot if they hit the previous one. iirc, there was some controversy on the analysis I remember, they first claimed an effect in the paper (as is customary...) but proper reanalysis then removed the effect. Or was it the other way around? Don't remember... Have a look at the wiki entry if you want to dig deeper. Either way the suggested signal was pretty small, so shouldn't affect it too much. It's very possible that avilo (and TLO for that matter) is less mentally composed than an NBA penalty shooter, so definitely a concern with the calculation, although probably not breaking it completely. And yes, uncertainty in the single-game winrate propagates in fifth power to the 5-0 probability. As we saw, difference between 40% and 60% in single game makes the difference between 1% or 8% for 5-0. And as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty even in the single-game win probability. My argument was based on the confidence in TLO's challenge. I'd say TLO himself thinks he has at least 50% probability of 5-0. Which translates (with independence assumption) into a 87% single game winrate and 4*10^-5 probability for 0-5. So if we trust TLOs judgement, it'll be well below 1% (even accounting for reasonable tilt effects). As you say though, maybe TLOs estimate is off for the single-game winrate, and at that point it can be anything. And it's probably fair to say that it's more than 1% probability that TLOs estimate is quite off. I also want TLattack back!! TLOwnage with the nuke rush and all that! :D | ||
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KaiserChuck
United States79 Posts
On June 11 2017 08:56 Hypertension wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2017 21:55 xelnaga_empire wrote: Avilo was watching the SSL finals tonight and was in the Youtube chat. More or less, he doesn't think he will get anything out of it. According to Avilo, if he wins, it was because TLO is handicapped. If TLO wins, then it will all be just a show to embarrass Avilo. He is not even interested in attempting to win the $600 (if that was the last reported amount of the prize from everybody contributing), even though he isn't risking his own money. My guess is, Avilo values his pride more than the potential of winning $600. I would guess if the people who are donating money to the prize offer Avilo a minimum amount of money to simply participate in this show match, in addition to the total prize, Avilo may consider it. I don't know what this "minimum amount" is but you guys could probably negotiate this with Avilo. This way, Avilo walks away with something, even if he loses. You can also increase the prize but I'm guessing Avilo feels even if you increase the prize, he may still walk away with nothing. This is why I suggest offering him a "minimum amount" for simply participating, separate of the total prize. Otherwise, I don't think this match is going to happen. Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly. He said a few times something to the effect of: Mech is still broken, Solar is trash & Inno is so much better that he could just win with a bio push every game. In other words: "of course he wins with his mech - but he's not doing it right really but he's so much better than this garbage zerg so he wins anyhow". It struck me in the moment as exactly what needs to be true so that Avilo can be right & doesn't have to question himself. | ||
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling? also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter. bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel. | ||
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TaKeTV
Germany1200 Posts
On June 11 2017 09:59 lolfail9001 wrote: bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel. That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment. | ||
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RKC
2848 Posts
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ShambhalaWar
United States930 Posts
On June 11 2017 08:54 TaKeTV wrote: While I believe TLO's mechanics are far superior avilo's mech style isn't really that heavy on mechanics but I feel his strategy is really lacking, especially if we consider mass roaches. He is going hellion heavy with 2 factories and late tanks which should be the biggest issue. At least from the WCS games I saw. But we will never find out because he wont play :S TakeTV players' lounge cast of the event. Pls. Champagne waterfall. That is all. | ||
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
On June 11 2017 10:18 TaKeTV wrote: That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment. I know that bio is not viable in BW TvP, that's why i used it. Playing against even a low GM terran with roach ling? TLO is not making an easy bet, that's for sure. | ||
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ninazerg
United States7291 Posts
On June 11 2017 10:48 RKC wrote: Can avilo even take down Livibee? No, I saw the youtube video. Also, absolutely nothing is at stake here besides egos. The only reason why it would be a "bad move" for either of them to do this is because of ego. Otherwise, it's just a couple of people playing StarCraft 2. JUST DO IT. | ||
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WaesumNinja
210 Posts
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Vanadiel
France961 Posts
On June 11 2017 08:56 Hypertension wrote: Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly. Here is your answer : Low tier masters NA Zerg coulda put up more of a fight vs Innovation in those games... | ||
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Penev
28512 Posts
they only should be allowed to make lings, queens, roaches, overseers and corruptors from now on | ||
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Aunvilgodess
954 Posts
On June 11 2017 10:18 TaKeTV wrote: That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment. Are you Silvano? | ||
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DropTester
Australia608 Posts
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fluidrone
France1478 Posts
![[image loading]](https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/cb/a2/db/cba2db096578179dca963d04cc72b7bf.png) YOU make it happen! Just make a matcherino pot (you all send the money.. 5 bucks or whatever) they wait until the pot is around 1k and then agree on how to split the money... Also please show courtesy towards people trying to save the gamer side of sc2 (grudge matches or other) i would type the morrow twit ch emote (RIGHT HERE right now) that shows this (u sub to morrow on twit ch, type morUp and you will see the emote!  .. + Show Spoiler +it showcases tlo's head in recognition Same for struggling streamers on sc2.. give them an honorable way out (disclaimer: matcherino (and i get no `$ for typing this) would help provide this service) if both players get money.. just ask for a best of 7 and both get fiftyfifty on the money donated (they play standard or with the limitations whatever) and then you ll get your grudge match (got to do your part is what i mean) + Show Spoiler [toomuchinformation] + mmm choreographed to outsource mmmm goood <3 ![[image loading]](https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/e1/5b/77/e15b77e86cff44230257a0a36efc9739.jpg) | ||
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